Latest news with #Short-TermEnergyOutlook
Bloomberg
08-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Trims 2025 Crude Output Growth Forecast as Drilling Stalls
The US sees domestic crude output growth slowing more than expected this year as choppy oil prices limit drilling activity. US crude output is now expected to grow by 160,000 barrels a day this year to 13.37 million barrels a day and remain flat in 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday. The production forecast for this year represents a drop of about 50,000 barrels a day from the agency's previous projections in June.
Focus Malaysia
01-07-2025
- Business
- Focus Malaysia
Oil market reacts mildly to geopolitical de-escalation
FOLLOWING almost two weeks of mutual missile strikes, the US President last week announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, sending Brent oil prices to below USD70/bbl and effectively erasing gains driven by geopolitical tensions. The oil price pullback is not entirely surprising as the conflict had minimal impact on the physical oil market. We reiterate our view that the oil demand-supply fundamentals remain unexciting in view of rising barrels production from OPEC+ by 411kbpd in May and June, which would likely continue in 2H25. We expect the planned production hikes by OPEC+ to tilt the oil market towards oversupply territory in 2025, aggravated by wobbling oil demand, as US Liberation Day tariffs dampen global economic growth. EIA in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (June) forecasted an oil oversupply of 820kbpd in 2025, which may cap oil price upside in the near-term due to stock build over the course of the year. We do not rule out any further oil price spike in the event of an escalation in geopolitical conflict, especially in the Middle East region. However, judging by the fundamentals, we reckon that Brent oil prices may see strong resistance to sustain at above USD70/bbl. Given their high earnings sensitivity to oil prices, companies with substantial upstream E&P exposure could see earnings contraction due to lower average realised oil prices (2025e: USD67/bbl) when compared to a high base of USD80/bbl in 2024. The reduced exploration works as a result of dwindling oil prices and lingering Petronas-Petros debacle will continue to put drilling demand under pressure. According to Wood Mackenzie, the oil industry is likely to delay growth capex and discretionary spending in view of softening oil prices and macro uncertainties, especially for major projects, given that US' tariffs may inflict decision paralysis for some. That said, oil prices of USD65/bbl may dent margins but unlikely to warrant significant budget cuts and development plan changes. Our channel checks also indicate that the global O&G project pipeline remains largely intact but merely seeing some deferrals in contract award. As such, the temporary pullback on development projects may, in our view, slowdown new FPSO project awards from oil majors. The petrochemicals sector is still in the doldrums with a prolonged downcycle perpetuated by persistent demand weakness and global petrochemicals overcapacity. Overall, the petrochemicals sector will remain in the woods in the coming years as global capacity addition will continue to outstrip demand growth, which will in turn weigh on global utilisation rate. We retain our Brent oil price forecasts for 2025/2026 at USD67/bbl and USD70/bbl, with the view that oil prices will continue hovering at USD60-65/bbl in 2H25, barring escalation in geopolitical conflict. On a macro level, we view that oil prices are skewed to the downside from current levels due to (i) dissipating geopolitical premiums given Middle East conflict de-escalation, (ii) increasing output from OPEC+ and (iii) potential demand slowdown induced by US Liberation Day tariffs. However, our OVERWEIGHT rating is based on a bottom-up view of the sector as most of our stock recommendations are BUYs due to favourable fundamentals and earnings profile of the respective stocks, along with undemanding valuation across the sector. —July 1, 2025 Main image: Siemens
CNBC
24-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
This summer expense could cost you around $200 a month—6 tips to save
A rise in natural-gas prices and other factors will make air conditioning particularly pricey for Americans this summer, according to the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook. The surge is expected to bring AC costs up by about 4%, costing the average American home around $186 a month, according to The Wall Street Journal. New England residents are expected to face even higher charges, the Journal reports, with average monthly bills reaching around $200. A higher-than-expected AC bill can sneak up on you. And while this summer's 4% uptick may not seem significant in comparison to other prices on the rise, it can interfere with your plans to allocate your summer spending elsewhere. Experts say there are ways to save while still staying cool this summer. Here are their top tips. Hot air seeping inward and cool air leaking outward can "destabilize the whole system," says Piero Caballero, senior product manager at Johnson Controls, a technology and energy company. To prevent leaks, Caballero suggests scanning your doors and windows to look for gaps and cracks where air could potentially get through — especially if you live in an older home. Tapes designed to seal those leaks can be a quick, cost-effective solution, Caballero says. For a more comprehensive fix, "the best thing" homeowners can do is pursue a professional home energy audit for a thorough assessment of cracks, gaps and leaks, says Matt Malinowski, building program director at the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. The price of an audit typically ranges from $300 to $500, but varies greatly depending on the size and location of your home as well as the type of test needed, Malinowski says. You may also be eligible for a $150 tax credit to help cover the costs, he added. Using a fan to make yourself feel cooler can allow you to reduce the temperature on your thermostat during peak hours of the day, Caballero says. Fans don't use as much electricity as an AC system, Caballero says, so you don't need to worry that plugging one in will drive up your bill. Malinowski adds that it's important to remember "fans don't cool space, they cool people," so they should always be switched off when you leave a room. Just like a car parked in the sun on a hot day, your home can heat up if you don't close your blinds while you're away, Malinowski says. If you're a homeowner with long-term environmental and budget sustainability goals, you may also want to consider planting trees that can provide natural shade and reduce heat, he adds. Major appliances like your dryer, oven and dishwasher may produce more heat than you realize, Malinowski says, so it's best to keep them off during the hottest hours of the day unless you want your AC to work overtime. Instead, consider cost-effective methods that leverage the summer heat — like using a clothesline instead of the dryer, Malinowski says. You can help your AC system work most optimally by changing the filter on it every one to three months, depending on the specific system's needs, Caballero says. "If you have a filter that is not clean it's going to put a lot of stress on your system," Caballero says, which means the AC will consume more energy and the system won't last as long. Adding a visit from a professional technician to your annual maintenance checklist can also help you address system issues preemptively, Caballero says, preventing major breakdowns. Smart thermostats can "do the work for you" by programming to turn on and off based on your schedule, Caballero says. If you have the option, you can purchase a smart thermostat for anywhere between $100 and $150, Malinowski says. If you're moving into a new home and shopping around for heating and cooling systems, Malinowski suggests heat pumps as an alternative to central AC systems. Heat pumps "can run in both directions," Malinowski says, providing you cooling in the summer and heating in the winter. Although they usually come with higher upfront costs than air conditioners, combining both your heating and cooling into one system can save you money long-term, he adds. Heat pump systems are also more eco-friendly, Malinowski says, which can be a plus for those looking not only to save money, but also to live more sustainably.
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
World's Top Oil Trader Sees Lower U.S. Output in 2025
U.S. oil production is set for a slight drop this year amid weaker prices, the chief executive of the world's largest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, said on Tuesday. 'With slightly lower prices ... we're beginning to see some impact on investment and production,' Vitol's CEO Russell Hardy said at the Energy Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, as carried by Reuters. 'And there's nowhere more obvious for that than within the U.S. and within the shale industry,' the executive added. Hardy joins other industry executives in predicting that the U.S. shale patch will struggle to maintain the record-high production levels of the past months amid lower oil prices. U.S. shale production will likely plateau if WTI oil prices are in the low $60s per barrel, and decline at prices in the $50s, ConocoPhillips chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said last month. Executives polled in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in Q1 indicated that their companies need an average $65 per barrel to profitably drill a new well. Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook that total U.S. crude oil production is now forecast to slip from a record 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2025 to around 13.3 million bpd by the end of 2026. U.S. rig activity is tumbling. Last month's rig count decline far exceeded expectations—the lowest since November 2021—with Baker Hughes reporting U.S. oil rigs at just 442 as of last week. In the Permian, the industry's crown jewel, rig totals have fallen to levels not seen since late 2021. The Israel-Iran conflict is adding a lot of volatility and uncertainty on the oil market, driving WTI Crude prices above the $70 per barrel mark. However, without an actual supply disruption to oil supply and trade in the Middle Eastern region, oil prices will struggle to hold on to the $70s handle, according to analysts. By Tsvetana Paraskova for More Top Reads From this article on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Record US Gulf Oil Output to Soften 2026 Production Decline
(Bloomberg) -- US oil production will likely decline next year, but the scale of the dropoff will be substantially reduced by an old source of new supplies: the Gulf of Mexico. Trump's Military Parade Has Washington Bracing for Tanks and Weaponry Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. NYC Mayoral Candidates All Agree on Building More Housing. But Where? Senator Calls for Closing Troubled ICE Detention Facility in New Mexico California Pitches Emergency Loans for LA, Local Transit Systems Producers in the body of water — which President Donald Trump renamed the Gulf of America — will bring on 300,000 barrels of new daily output this year and a further 250,000 barrels in 2026 due to projects many years in the making, according to forecaster Wood Mackenzie Ltd. These will increase production in the region to more than 2 million barrels a day, about 40% higher than in 2020. The growth comes against a backdrop of slowing US shale production due to weaker oil prices, as onshore producers cut rigs and costs to counter rising supplies from OPEC and its allies. Overall US production will decline 0.4% to 13.37 million barrels a day next year, the first drop since 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday. The Gulf's rising importance represents a turnaround from the past two decades, when the region — tarnished by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, spiraling costs and pandemic shutdowns — took a backseat to the shale boom that has made the US the world's largest oil producer. But now tumbling crude prices are hurting shale drillers while major, longer-term Gulf projects are starting to come online. 'Most people are focused on onshore, when the real growth this year will come from offshore,' Miles Sasser, a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview. 'The projects in the Gulf of America are ramping up nicely, and that should come as a surprise to many.' Trump has promised to unleash US oil and gas production, and his administration is reworking policies to help boost flows, including from the Gulf. He has also created a National Energy Dominance Council to help expand production. But his global trade war and the OPEC+ supply increases that he has encouraged have hammered crude prices, spurring the pullback by shale drillers. Chevron Corp. will grow Gulf production 50% from last year, to 300,000 barrels a day by 2026. Shell Plc has Sparta, a 90,000 barrel-a-day project coming online in 2028, while BP Plc has a series of projects through the end of the decade that will increase production capacity by about 20% to more than 400,000 barrels a day. These are all coming at a time when frackers are warning US shale production may have peaked. Production growth in the Gulf has only outperformed shale in three of the past 10 years, and each of those instances came amid low oil prices and slowing demand, said Jesse Jones, a senior upstream analyst at Energy Aspects. 'Shale producers react more quickly to weaker prices,' he said. Chevron's most-recent developments break even at crude prices below $20 a barrel, making them among the lowest cost anywhere in the world, according to Bruce Niemeyer, the company's president of production in the Americas. Brent crude settled at just above $67 a barrel Monday, down 10% since April 1. 'If you can drive breakevens down, you make your investments more resilient, you make the company more resilient,' Niemeyer said in an interview. 'That's the ultimate scorecard.' The secret to the Gulf's rebound is a fundamental change in the offshore business model. When oil consistently traded at $100 a barrel between 2008 and 2015, producers designed large, complex and expensive production vessels. They've since focused on smaller, simpler structures. BP reduced the cost of its Mad Dog 2 project by more than half, to $9 billion, by the time it came online in 2023. Shell cut the expense of its Vito platform 70% from its initial design. Both companies say they their new approach is to 'design one, build many.' 'Deepwater is no longer high-cost by default,' Colette Hirstius, Shell's executive vice president for Gulf of America, said in response to questions. 'It's proving to be highly efficient, capital-lean and resilient' through the oil-price cycle. Chevron is working to fill up old production platforms rather than building new ones, Niemeyer said. Ballymore began producing its 75,000 barrels a day in April, but doesn't have a dedicated platform. Instead, the field is connected to its Blind Faith platform, which was built in 2008, through three miles of subsea pipelines, or 'tiebacks.' About 80% of Chevron's exploration leasehold is in tieback range of existing facilities. 'We begin with the end in mind,' Niemeyer said. 'That sets us up to be very disciplined in the design choices and execution, and that ultimately turns into falling breakeven' costs. Like all established oil fields, the Gulf faces limits. There haven't been any big new discoveries since 2017, when Shell struck oil in the Whale field, Wood Mackenzie's Sasser said. The region 'lacks high-impact projects that will sustain growth in the years to come,' he said. But Big Oil is demonstrating that technology can help overcome these obstacles. Chevron made the Anchor discovery in the Paleogene geologic strata in 2015, but its 440 million barrels were located six miles under the seabed at ultra-high pressure and temperatures. After years of working with industry suppliers to safely access the oil, Chevron began producing Anchor's oil in August at pressures of up to 20,000 pounds per square inch, among the highest in the world and equivalent to an elephant standing on a quarter. BP has discovered about 10 billion barrels of resources in the Paleogene and will begin producing from it through its Kaskida project in 2029. The Gulf is 'a key strategic region for BP' due to its high volumes and low costs, Andy Krieger, senior vice president for the Gulf of America and Canada, said in response to questions. 'That's a big reason why we've made significant investments in this region for many years,' he said, 'and why we fully intend to keep investing there, in a disciplined way, for many more.' (Updates with details from Energy Information Administration in the third paragraph.) New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling What America's Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. 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