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Sky News AU
a day ago
- Climate
- Sky News AU
Australia's incoming deluge: 'Strong odds' of significantly wetter than usual weather in the NT, Queensland as Pacific Ocean gives clues that La Nina could return
There are strong odds of Australia's late winter and spring months being wetter than usual - and significantly so in the NT and Queensland - with Pacific Ocean indicators pointing to a potential La Nina event in 2025. The year so far has been marked by rain and floods in the east and drought in the south, with wet weather now suddenly picking up in the drought-stricken southern growing regions that need it most. Now, this Sky News Weather climate analysis can reveal that many more rain-bearing systems are on the way. Indian Ocean Avid weather watchers will no doubt be aware that there is plenty of talk about a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) developing and aiding rainfall across Australia. The Indian Ocean lies to Australia's west. It is currently in a neutral state with the IOD sitting at -0.04C. This value needs to fall below -0.4C for at least eight consecutive weeks for these developments to be declared a -IOD event. It's still a long way off, but forecast models have been in strong agreement for some time that an event is a significant chance to take place. Its influence could be noticeable from as early as late August if it drops below the threshold in the coming weeks. Pacific Ocean The ocean to our east is the largest in the world – covering more than 30 per cent of the world's surface. Its size and proximity have contributed to its outsized influence on our weather. This mass expanse of water has played a significant role in helping the last five financial years exceed the nation's median rainfall. We had three back-to-back La Ninas, then an El Nino then a 'La Nina-like' pattern that was declared by Sky News Weather and US Government's climate organisation NOAA, but not by the Bureau of Meteorology. Right now, the official value of the Nino3.4 index is –0.14C. However, when comparing the temperatures in the middle of the Pacific Ocean to those through the rest of the world's tropics we can see that we are more clearly on the La Nina side of neutral. The Relative NINO index is therefore more appropriate to use in a changing climate – currently sitting closer to –0.4C. Forecast models have suddenly come into line agreeing that significant cooling of the central Pacific is likely. Between July and September, the median of nine leading models cools the NINO region by between 0.2C and 0.7C with an average of 0.45C. Therefore, there is a significant chance that the September value of the Relative NINO index will be close to -0.8C. This puts us on the border of a weak La Nina event. But like last year, even if it cools a bit further than that, the Bureau will probably say we are experiencing 'La Nina-like conditions' without declaring an event - as official thresholds are unlikely to be met. Rain odds increasing for most According to the average of the nine aforementioned models – including the Bureau's – there is between a 60 per cent and 90 per cent chance of above median rainfall across Australia from August to October. This is a notable increase on the previous forecast for the same period – indicating the growing confidence in the upcoming rainfall pattern. The odds are strongest in the NT and Queensland – meaning that parts of the dry season and 'build-up' months could be significantly wetter than usual – but this is still nothing compared to the wet season. Further south, rainfall should also be very handy in drought affected regions of SA, Victoria and possibly Tasmania and Western Australia – although their rain chances are not quite as high. Many farmers will remember the last time we had strong rain odds at this time of year. Rain gradually picked up through the winter of 2022 before the country saw its second wettest spring on record. Forbes experienced near-record flooding and the Murray had its biggest flood since 1956. Models are not quite as extreme in their forecasts this year as they were in the lead up to that event. However, similar rainfall patterns cannot be ruled out through the coming months as evidenced by this week's uptick in wet weather. Sydney and the NSW coastline could miss out Sydney and the NSW coast have been pretty wet this year. Historically the first half of the year is the wetter time of year in these areas. It's therefore unlikely that the second half of the year will be wetter than the first half. Further to that – a lot of the upcoming rainfall is expected to favour the NSW ranges and areas further west. Therefore, it seems likely that rainfall in Sydney and up and down the NSW coast should be somewhat closer to normal. Locals in those areas may not notice the drenching affecting much of the country. Watch Sky News Weather on the Sky News App or on Foxtel's Channel 601 for the latest forecasts and seasonal outlooks.
Sky News AU
08-07-2025
- Climate
- Sky News AU
Sky News Weather breaks down South Australia's marine crisis, as harmful algal bloom changes course and moves towards Adelaide beaches
The deadly algal bloom floating in South Australian waters - causing masses of dead fish and rays to wash up on local beaches - has reached Adelaide after a change in weather conditions. The bloom, which has been attributed to unusually dry and warm conditions over the state earlier this year, was first identified off the Fleurieu Peninsula in March. The arrival of cold and windy weather has failed to quell the worsening outbreak, and only shifted its focus to other parts of the state. Sky News Weather has broken down the meteorological drivers that have most contributed to the crisis, including rising sea surface temperatures and dry, warm weather that has taken hold in Australia's south at the start of this year. What is an algal bloom? It is a naturally occurring microalgae known as Karenia mikimotoi. The species is not known to cause long-term health effects in humans, but swimmers and surfers have reported rashes and stinging eyes after entering the water. The HAB (harmful algal bloom) is causing serious concern for fisheries, as well as the oyster and pipis industry, as dead sea life including fish, sharks and rays wash up on beaches. The bloom is the first HAB for the region since an event in 2014, which developed around the Coffin Bay area. What caused the bloom in the first place? According to the South Australian Government, experts have identified three plausible influences: Firstly, a prolonged marine heatwave led to near record ocean heat off the SA coast from September 2024 to this May. Sea surface temperatures were 2.5C above normal over this extended period – not only offshore, but also within the Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent. Secondly, there was unusually dry and warm weather over the same period. Large parts of south Australia's southern regions have suffered through the driest January – May period on record this year, as high pressure systems blocked the passage of cool season frontal rain until early winter. Thirdly – the oceans of south Australia are very nutrient rich. Outflows of floodwater from the Murray River (a result of the 2022/2023 floods) carry high levels of nitrogen, phosphorous and iron. These factors turned south Australian waters into an optimal nesting ground for the HAB. Algae feed by photosynthesis (sunlight) and need warm, nutrient-rich water to grow. According to the SA Department of Primary Industries and Regions, predicting the duration of this HAB is difficult. They can last for weeks to months. Changing environmental conditions are believed to be the key to ending the HAB. It makes sense at first thought – get rid of the sunshine, warmth and nutrients, and the species would now be in an unhabitable environment. This has not been the case. During June, frequent cold fronts brought welcome rain for South Australian farmers. The weather events also brought strong gales, rough seas and abnormally high tides to the state's coastline. Ocean temperatures cooled and the top layer of the oceans (where the algae lives) was mixed considerably. The latest information from SA government surveys suggest that the weather shift dispersed some of the bloom but also moved it to impact other areas – including closer to Adelaide's beaches. It is unknown when the HAB will completely clear. One last question worth asking is – could this event be attributed to climate change? Another question to follow – could our planet's oceans see more HAB events than ever before due to climate change? If we consider the warm, calm and dry conditions which led to this HAB, Australia's changing climate can certainly be a factor, especially in southern waters. Climate change is reducing the likelihood of cool season cold fronts whilst increasing the prevalence of calmer high-pressure system over the nation's south. This has led to a decrease of about nine per cent in cool season rainfall since 1994. Ocean warming is also a direct result of climate change. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases traps heat in the atmosphere, and a substantial part of this excess heat is absorbed by the oceans. For the latest weather outlooks and climate forecasts be sure to tune into Sky News Weather Channel 601 on Foxtel
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Aussies brace for ‘pretty wild' weather
Ski resorts are in for 'pretty wild' weather that could halt ski lifts and bring about blizzards as other parts of the country brace to shiver through temperatures in the negatives. Major ski resorts can expect to record between 30mm and 5mm of rain in the coming days followed by 30cm and 60cm of snow. Sky News Weather senior meteorologist Rob Sharpe said the 'wild' weather could bring about blizzards and grind ski lifts to a halt. 'It's going to be pretty wild up there, essentially over the next 48 hours,' Mr Sharpe said. '(There could be a) considerable time where the ski lifts stops spinning due to the windy weather. 'But it's going to be great skiing conditions from Thursday with all the fresh snow on the ground.' Areas in the country's southeast are also set to shiver through plummeting temperatures this week, with Tumbarumba in NSW set to drop to -5C on Friday before a slight increase to -3C through the weekend. Areas like Wangaratta in Victoria can also expect cold minimum temperatures of -2C heading into the weekend. Mr Sharpe said some of the coldest temperatures were expected on Wednesday, particularly in Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and the ACT, as a complex low pressure system with a series of cold fronts moved through the southeast. Southern inland NSW and the ACT are set to experience the 'most remarkable' cold weather on Wednesday, with the ACT in for one of the coldest days this year, a forecast maximum of 8C. 'It's going to be another very cold day for Canberra … in most year's there's only a few days below 10C each winter,' Mr Sharpe said. 'It's going to be one of those days on Wednesday.' Sydney can expect showers and a low of 13C on Tuesday before dropping to 11C on Wednesday. Melbourne is in for a week of showers, plummeting from a minimum temperature of 12C to 7C over Tuesday and Wednesday. Brisbane is also tipped for a week of rain, with minimum temperatures expected to stay around 15C before dropping to a respective 11C and 9C on Thursday and Friday. Perth is tipped for minimum temperatures around 6C this week, while Adelaide is expected to experience showers with minimum temperatures fluctuating between 6-9C over the course of the week. Hobart's Tuesday minimum temperature of 10C is expected to drop to 4C by Thursday, with showers tipped through the week. A minimum temperature of 1C is forecast in Canberra on Wednesday before -3C minimums on Thursday and Friday. Darwin appears to be the place to be this week, with minimum temperatures in the low 20s through much of the week with a bit of sun expected.
News.com.au
23-06-2025
- Climate
- News.com.au
‘Pretty wild' weather could halt ski lifts, bring on blizzards at major resorts
Ski resorts are in for 'pretty wild' weather that could halt ski lifts and bring about blizzards as other parts of the country brace to shiver through temperatures in the negatives. Major ski resorts can expect to record between 30mm and 5mm of rain in the coming days followed by 30cm and 60cm of snow. Sky News Weather senior meteorologist Rob Sharpe said the 'wild' weather could bring about blizzards and grind ski lifts to a halt. 'It's going to be pretty wild up there, essentially over the next 48 hours,' Mr Sharpe said. '(There could be a) considerable time where the ski lifts stops spinning due to the windy weather. 'But it's going to be great skiing conditions from Thursday with all the fresh snow on the ground.' Areas in the country's southeast are also set to shiver through plummeting temperatures this week, with Tumbarumba in NSW set to drop to -5C on Friday before a slight increase to -3C through the weekend. Areas like Wangaratta in Victoria can also expect cold minimum temperatures of -2C heading into the weekend. Mr Sharpe said some of the coldest temperatures were expected on Wednesday, particularly in Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and the ACT, as a complex low pressure system with a series of cold fronts moved through the southeast. Southern inland NSW and the ACT are set to experience the 'most remarkable' cold weather on Wednesday, with the ACT in for one of the coldest days this year, a forecast maximum of 8C. 'It's going to be another very cold day for Canberra … in most year's there's only a few days below 10C each winter,' Mr Sharpe said. 'It's going to be one of those days on Wednesday.' Sydney can expect showers and a low of 13C on Tuesday before dropping to 11C on Wednesday. Melbourne is in for a week of showers, plummeting from a minimum temperature of 12C to 7C over Tuesday and Wednesday. Brisbane is also tipped for a week of rain, with minimum temperatures expected to stay around 15C before dropping to a respective 11C and 9C on Thursday and Friday. Perth is tipped for minimum temperatures around 6C this week, while Adelaide is expected to experience showers with minimum temperatures fluctuating between 6-9C over the course of the week. Hobart's Tuesday minimum temperature of 10C is expected to drop to 4C by Thursday, with showers tipped through the week. A minimum temperature of 1C is forecast in Canberra on Wednesday before -3C minimums on Thursday and Friday. Darwin appears to be the place to be this week, with minimum temperatures in the low 20s through much of the week with a bit of sun expected.
Sky News AU
09-06-2025
- Climate
- Sky News AU
Orange experiences King's Birthday snowfall as ‘very cold' front sweeps over NSW bringing windy conditions
A cold and windy King's Birthday is expected for much of Australia's southeast with a Central Tablelands town picking up some early morning snow. Alpine resorts across the country weren't the only ones receiving some early winter snowfall as Orange woke up to snowy white yards off the back of a low-pressure system. Sky News Australia Meteorologist Rob Sharpe said it has been a 'very cold' past 24 hours for parts of New South Wales with snow continuing to bucket over the alpine regions. 'It's very cold indeed … a lot of snow across the alpine resorts; generally, there have been 30 to 65 centimetres of snow over the last few days,' Mr Sharpe said. 'It's even snowing in Orange this morning. 'The snow is falling right now in the Central Tablelands, most likely this morning for this low-level snow, as low as 900 metres in New South Wales today and a chance onto the Northern Tablelands but will ease into the afternoon.' The start of the snow season has been one to remember for skiers and snowboarders with the season tracking to be one of the best on record as ski resorts have received 30-70cm. This has been the best start to the ski season since snow engulfed Aussie slopes for the opening weekend of 2022. Victoria's Mt Hotham recorded its third-best opening weekend in its 33 years of snow data. Mr Sharpe said alpine resorts will probably receive another 10-20cm for the week ahead due to a low-pressure system which is bringing wet weather particularly for Victoria and eastern parts of Tasmania. 'Ballarat has seen 35mm in the last 24 hours. That's double any other day so far this year," he said. Sky News Weather has given a detailed forecast for Australia's 'turnaround' ski season. Meanwhile, windy conditions will dominate much of the coast of New South Wales for the King's Birthday on Monday. Winds look to sit at a north-westerly of 15km/h to 25km/h, before turning westerly at 30 to 45 km/h in the late morning before decreasing to 25km/h to 35 km/h later in the day. Strong wind blasts have led to the Bureau of Meteorology issuing a Hazardous Surf Warning for Illawarra, Batemans and Eden coasts on Monday before extending to Sydney and Hunter coasts on Tuesday.
