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Sydney Morning Herald
20-07-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
Boost to Liberals, swing against Labor as voters punish ALP in Tasmanian poll
Loading ABC election analyst Casey Briggs said it amounted to the party's worst vote in Tasmanian history at just 25.8 per cent of the primary vote as of 10pm. Speaking at the tally room on Saturday night, Labor leader Dean Winter did not concede but also would not reveal whether he will seek to work with the Greens. But he said whoever forms government will have to form a 'new approach to politics in the state' and show a willingness to work together. Winter noted the parliament would likely return a majority of progressive MPs. 'Tonight, the Tasmanian people have spoken, and they have delivered another hung parliament and, with it, a resounding message that they want their politicians to work together more collaboratively. They aren't happy with politics as usual, and they want to see things done differently,' he said. Saturday's snap poll, the second in under two years, was called after Rockliff lost a no-confidence-motion brought on by Labor, which criticised his budget management and the bungled roll-out of Spirit of Tasmania ferries. Rockliff chose to call an election instead of resigning. Labor has ruled out doing a deal with The Greens to form government, but has left the door open to accepting supply and confidence from the minor party. The party is predicted to hold either nine or 10 seats in the new parliament, with the Liberals remaining on at least 14. Eighteen seats are needed for a majority. Speaking just after 10pm on Saturday night, Tasmanian Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said Winter needed to have a conversation about the possibility of forming government with the Greens, despite his previous refusals to do so. 'There are differences, but the Greens and Labor have a lot in common too. We are ready. We are ready to work collaboratively in the best interest of Tasmanians and, Dean, I hope you put them first this time too,' she said. The early election has delayed a key vote around the proposed $945 million Macquarie Point Stadium in Hobart and brought fierce anti- and pro-stadium sentiment to the forefront of the campaign. The stadium project – an AFL condition of a new Tasmanian team, The Devils – is backed by Labor and Liberals but opposed by the Greens and most independents. For many, like Hobart resident Travis Price, the proposed stadium and the prospect of a Tasmanian AFL team have ignited a newfound interest in politics. 'The team and the stadium have probably been the first major thing that's got me to actually follow along with the politicians and what's important for the state,' Price said on Saturday at an election-day rally in support of the stadium. He said he voted Liberal, seeing the party as the strongest advocates for the stadium's completion. His dad, James Price, said he was a rusted-on Labor voter. But this election, he instead voted Liberal and blames Labor for bringing about the election and putting the stadium plan in jeopardy. 'They've already spent a lot of money on the stadium, we can't afford to have Labor come in with Greens or independents who don't want a stadium,' he said. However, not all football fans share the Prices' enthusiasm for the current proposal. Sharyn White, while keen for Tasmania to have a stadium, believes the deal demanded by the AFL is unfair on the state. She hopes independents emerge as the big winners on election night. 'Our politicians didn't negotiate us a good deal,' White said. 'We need reasonable people who listen to expert advice.' She was frustrated that the stadium had dominated Tasmanian politics, overshadowing critical issues such as the lack of housing infrastructure, health reform, and education. In 2023, Tasmania was granted a licence for its own AFL team, contingent on the construction of a new 23,000-seat roofed stadium. But the no stadium, no team ultimatum has since been embroiled in political turmoil, with recent polling showing roughly 60 per cent of Tasmanians oppose the contentious development. Both Labor and the Liberals back the stadium, but with independents and anti-stadium Greens likely to play a key role in the event of a hung parliament, there is the possibility they will demand the stadium plans be dropped or altered. Just hours after polls opened, more than a thousand pro-stadium footy fans made their views heard, marching to North Hobart Oval. Aaron Hilder attended with his family and said a stadium would be a game changer for everyone in the state and the loud opposition was frustrating. 'It's so close, but we need to get it over the line,' he said. High-profile independent Kristie Johnston said the stadium project was a key 'filter question' for voters. 'We can't afford it, we don't need it, and it doesn't fit on the site,' she told this masthead. 'As soon as I say no [to the stadium] they are engaged and wanting to know more about what else I stand for in terms of health, housing and education. 'So it's not necessarily a referendum on the stadium, but it's symbolic of the underlying issues about the future of the state.' Johnston accused the AFL of treating Tasmania with 'great disdain' and said the next parliament must 'stand firm … and demand a team, but not be dictated by the AFL in terms of what the conditions for that are'. For many Tasmanians, the debate over the proposed stadium became a reflection of their broader values. As she cast her vote at a polling station on Saturday, Hobart resident Heidi Mirtl said the highly visible debate had taken on profound significance. 'It is the thing that becomes the centrepiece around what underpins the values people hold when they vote,' she said. Mirtl, who believes the state cannot afford the project, cited the Greens' opposition to the stadium as a key reason for her vote, arguing the priority must be the 'desperate need for housing and addressing poverty'. Influential pro-stadium independent David O'Byrne, a former Labor leader, said the prospect of a local AFL team had made politics 'white-hot' and had motivated a new cohort of voters. 'The issue crosses ideological lines,' O'Byrne said. 'There is a group that is motivated to vote strategically in support of something they feel strongly about, which is essentially delivering a Tasmanian football club that we have wanted for a generation.' Tasmania, along with the ACT, uses the Hare-Clark electoral system in the lower house. A form of proportional representation, it was recently expanded so that seven MPs, instead of five, are elected from each of the state's five electorates. This lowers the quota of votes needed to win a seat, boosting the prospects of minor parties and independents. O'Byrne, who said Labor was being blamed by many voters for causing an unnecessary election, pledged to work constructively with whoever can form government if he was re-elected. 'I won't dangle that as a threat,' he said. 'Part of the problem is you've had a couple of independents who provided that supply and confidence last time but, all of a sudden, made everything a test of the relationship and therefore [the government] collapsed.' O'Byrne resigned from Labor after failing to win preselection for the 2024 election following an internal investigation into a sexual harassment allegation from 10 years prior. The investigation found O'Byrne's behaviour was 'inappropriate and wrong' but did not constitute sexual harassment. He was re-elected in 2024 with the highest primary vote of any independent candidate.


Perth Now
19-07-2025
- Politics
- Perth Now
Who's who in the Tassie election
Tasmania will head to the polls on Saturday, after a bombshell move by the opposition sparked a snap election just 16 months after the last. The state's lower house is comprised of 35 MPs, seven chosen from each of five electorates, and the upper house is voted in with one member representing each of the 15 electorates. With 50 state representatives and 17 on a federal level, as well as 29 councils across Tasmania, the state's 530,000-strong population has more than its fair share of politicians. Here are the key players you need to know as voting begins. Jeremy Rockliff The incumbent Premier took over in the top job in April 2022 and has faced a difficult time since. Although he inherited a Liberal majority from his predecessor Peter Gutwein, the government went into minority after two Liberal backbench MPs quit the party to sit as independents in opposition to the proposed Macquarie Point Stadium project. With the support of the newly independent ex-Liberals uncertain, Rockliff rolled the dice with an early election in 2024 that plunged the government even further into minority. Since that result, things have gone from bad to worse for the Premier, with the resignation of his Deputy Premier over the botched Spirit of Tasmania rollout, a deepening budget deficit and growing opposition to the Macquarie Point stadium. Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff decided to take Tasmania to the polls after a motion of no confidence against him was passed in parliament in June. NewsWire/ Nikki Davis-Jones Credit: News Corp Australia Things came to a head in June when the state parliament passed Labor leader Dean Winter's motion of no confidence, forcing Rockliff to request an early election from the Governor. While it has not been smooth sailing for the incumbent Premier, if polls are to be believed, Mr Rockliff is on track to lead his party to a form of victory for the fifth election in a row, though he is likely to preside over a hung parliament. Mr Rockliff has pledged to create a state-owned insurance company if elected, describing it as the party's most significant announcement. Dean Winter Dean Winter has led the Labor Party for little over a year, but it's not yet clear if his legacy will be that of a rebuilder, or an agent of chaos. Mr Winter introduced the no confidence motion in Jeremy Rockliff's leadership in June, citing the botched roll out of new Spirit of Tasmania vessels, the state of the budget and the controversial Macquarie Point Stadium project as examples of Mr Rockliff's failed leadership. Mr Rockliff was scathing of the Opposition Leader in the wake of the motion's passage, blaming him for an election that 'Tasmanians don't want and that Tasmanians cannot afford.' 'You might get rid of me mate, but they're coming for you as well,' he told Mr Winter. It remains to be seen whether Tasmanians will punish or reward Mr Winter's gamble. Labor Leader Dean Winter has been in the role for just over the year, but his no confidence motion means he'll go down in the history books. NewsWire/ Simon Sturzaker Credit: News Corp Australia Rosalie Woodruff The Greens leader is perhaps the highest profile Tassie politician fighting against the Macquarie Point stadium, which is currently tied to securing a licence for the Tasmania Devils AFL team. Woodruff said the possible $1 billion price tag for the stadium would be better spent elsewhere, and has made the scrapping of the venture central to securing Greens support in the event of a hung parliament. Both Labor and the Liberals have ruled out doing any deals with the Greens, meaning Woodruff's position in the next parliament is likely to be one of irrelevancy. Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff is not expected to carry much influence in the next parliament, with both major parties declaring they would not do a deal with the party in the event of a hung parliament. NewsWire / Richard Jupe Credit: News Corp Australia Bridget Archer Bridget Archer is the highest profile new candidate in the state election, having previously represented the federal division of Bass in the federal parliament from 2019 until her shock defeat in Labor's landslide in May. Ms Archer is now running to represent the same voters, but at a state level. During her time in Canberra, she was known for her maverick streak, most notably crossing the floor to vote in favour of the establishment of a federal anti-corruption body, in defiance of her then-leader Scott Morrison. Liberal candidate and former federal MP Bridget Archer is running for state parliament after losing her seat in Canberra in May. NewsWire/ Scott Gelston Credit: News Corp Australia David O'Byrne One of the state's most controversial politicians, David O'Byrne is an independent MP representing the electorate of Franklin. Mr O'Byrne was a former Labor cabinet minister and for two weeks in 2022, the state's Labor leader until he resigned the post following accusations of historic sexual misconduct while working at a union. A report cleared him of sexual harassment and found he had not breached any Labor Party rules. Mr O'Byrne left the Labor Party in 2024 after his pre selection was blocked by then state leader Rebecca White (who is now the federal member for Bass) but was returned by voters to represent Franklin as an independent. He has since provided support to the minority Liberal government. Mr O'Byrne is a strong proponent of the Macquarie Point stadium. Independent candidate for Franklin, David O'Byrne, is strongly in favour of the Macquarie Point stadium. NewsWire/Nikki Davis-Jones Credit: News Corp Australia Craig Garland First coming to the attention of political observers in the 2018 Braddon by-election, where he scored an impressive 10 per cent of the vote as an independent, Mr Garland was elected at the 2024 state election on a platform of opposing the state's industrial salmon farming and ending native forest logging. Mr Garland pleaded guilty to a charge of drug driving in June after testing positive for cannabis while driving to go fishing. Independent member for Braddon Craig Garland ran a strong campaign against industrial salmon farming in the last election. Nikki Davis-Jones Credit: News Corp Australia Eric Abetz One of Australia's most outspoken, socially conservative politicians, Mr Abetz returned to politics in 2024 when he was elected to represent Franklin. However he is better known for his time representing the state of Tasmania in the federal Senate between 1994 and his defeat in 2022. Mr Abetz served as leader of the Government under both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull and was a passionate opponent of same sex marriage, saying its passage could lead to people marrying the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Mr Abetz has been touted as a potential successor to Premier Rockliff in the event of his defeat or resignation. Eric Abetz returned to state politics at the 2024 election, but is better known for his near-30 years as a Senator for Tasmania in Canberra. NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage Credit: News Corp Australia


The Advertiser
19-07-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Tasmania polls open, all roads lead to hung parliament
Polling booths have opened across Tasmania, with signs pointing to another hung parliament and further political jostling. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Polling places opened at 8am (AEDT) but more than one-quarter of Tasmania's 412,000 registered voters had cast their ballot early. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for an informal supply and confidence arrangement with the minor party. Mr Rockliff and Mr Winter have said they were prepared to work with "sensible" independents. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters on Friday was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, two of the reasons for the no-confidence motion. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are against the stadium and voted no-confidence against Mr Rockliff, are expected to return. Polling booths have opened across Tasmania, with signs pointing to another hung parliament and further political jostling. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Polling places opened at 8am (AEDT) but more than one-quarter of Tasmania's 412,000 registered voters had cast their ballot early. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for an informal supply and confidence arrangement with the minor party. Mr Rockliff and Mr Winter have said they were prepared to work with "sensible" independents. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters on Friday was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, two of the reasons for the no-confidence motion. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are against the stadium and voted no-confidence against Mr Rockliff, are expected to return. Polling booths have opened across Tasmania, with signs pointing to another hung parliament and further political jostling. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Polling places opened at 8am (AEDT) but more than one-quarter of Tasmania's 412,000 registered voters had cast their ballot early. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for an informal supply and confidence arrangement with the minor party. Mr Rockliff and Mr Winter have said they were prepared to work with "sensible" independents. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters on Friday was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, two of the reasons for the no-confidence motion. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are against the stadium and voted no-confidence against Mr Rockliff, are expected to return. Polling booths have opened across Tasmania, with signs pointing to another hung parliament and further political jostling. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Polling places opened at 8am (AEDT) but more than one-quarter of Tasmania's 412,000 registered voters had cast their ballot early. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for an informal supply and confidence arrangement with the minor party. Mr Rockliff and Mr Winter have said they were prepared to work with "sensible" independents. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters on Friday was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, two of the reasons for the no-confidence motion. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are against the stadium and voted no-confidence against Mr Rockliff, are expected to return.


7NEWS
18-07-2025
- Business
- 7NEWS
Polling booths open across Tasmania as signs point to another hung parliament
Polling booths have opened across Tasmania, with signs pointing to another hung parliament and further political jostling. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Polling places opened at 8am (AEDT) but more than one-quarter of Tasmania's 412,000 registered voters had cast their ballot early. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but Winter has kept the door ajar for an informal supply and confidence arrangement with the minor party. Rockliff and Winter have said they were prepared to work with 'sensible' independents. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Rockliff's final pitch to voters on Friday was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. 'We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job,' he told reporters. Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, two of the reasons for the no-confidence motion. 'They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Winter said. Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to 'push hard' in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are against the stadium and voted no-confidence against Rockliff, are expected to return.


The Advertiser
18-07-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Polling predicts further uncertainty as state votes
For the second time in 16 months, Tasmanians will head to the polls with all signs pointing to further political uncertainty. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's fourth in seven years. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, delayed because a berth isn't ready. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but have said they're prepared to work with sensible independents. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Two are against the stadium which is a condition of Tasmania's deal for an AFL team. For the second time in 16 months, Tasmanians will head to the polls with all signs pointing to further political uncertainty. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's fourth in seven years. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, delayed because a berth isn't ready. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but have said they're prepared to work with sensible independents. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Two are against the stadium which is a condition of Tasmania's deal for an AFL team. For the second time in 16 months, Tasmanians will head to the polls with all signs pointing to further political uncertainty. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's fourth in seven years. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, delayed because a berth isn't ready. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but have said they're prepared to work with sensible independents. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Two are against the stadium which is a condition of Tasmania's deal for an AFL team. For the second time in 16 months, Tasmanians will head to the polls with all signs pointing to further political uncertainty. Saturday's snap vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's fourth in seven years. The 11-year Liberal government was plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit the party and was returned in minority at the March 2024 poll. Election-eve polling by YouGov has the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30 per cent) neck-and-neck, with neither reaching the 18-seat mark required for majority. It represents a dip in support for Labor from YouGov polling in early July. Backing for independents (20 per cent) has risen while the Greens (16 per cent) have remained stable. In a hung parliament, Labor leader Dean Winter was backed by 55 per cent of respondents over Mr Rockliff (45 per cent) as preferred premier. There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. Mr Rockliff's final pitch to voters was hinged on his party's experience and Tasmania's 3.8 per cent unemployment rate, the lowest in Australia. "We were elected to do a job in March 2024 ... and we've got the leadership to get on with the job," he told reporters. Mr Winter, whose party holds 10 seats compared to the Liberals' 14, said it was time for a fresh start. He lashed Mr Rockliff's financial management and the botched delivery of two new Spirit of Tasmania ships, delayed because a berth isn't ready. "They've mismanaged major projects ... (and) our finances are the worst in the nation,' Mr Winter said. Mr Rockliff's signature campaign pledge to create a state-owned insurer on Friday copped a scathing assessment from Treasury which said it lacked detail. Both leaders have ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern, but have said they're prepared to work with sensible independents. The Greens, who hold five seats, have vowed to "push hard" in opposition to a new $945 million stadium in Hobart that is supported by the Liberals and Labor. The 2024 poll elected three independents. Two are against the stadium which is a condition of Tasmania's deal for an AFL team.