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Spectator
30-06-2025
- Business
- Spectator
Will Putin really reign in Russia's defence spending?
At the very time when those warmongering Nato nations are pledging to raise their defence spending substantially, that doveish peacenik Vladimir Putin is promising to reduce his. It's hard to know which of these two commitments is less plausible, but those anticipating the cranking down of the Russian war economy any time soon are going to have to wait rather longer. At the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin said that: We are planning to reduce defence spending. For next year and the year after that and so on – for the next three years – we are planning to do so, although there is not yet a final agreement between the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development, but overall everyone is thinking in that direction. The real risk for Putin is of prolonged economic decline, recession and stagflation In part, this was a response to the decision at last week's Nato summit to commit alliance members to a planned 5 per cent spend on defence. Of course, this is only a target and – just as not all members hit the previous 2 per cent figure – most will only slowly, if ever, reach this level. Spain, for example, has incurred the wrath of Donald Trump by already opting out, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez saying that 2.1 per cent is 'sufficient and realistic'. Besides, Nato's new target is not really 5 per cent, but rather 3.5 per cent on core defence spending and 1.5 per cent on related line items. As this can include everything from Ukraine aid to fixing transport infrastructure (wouldn't it be wonderful if Britain's potholes could be filled in the name of defence as a result?), it is essentially meaningless. Nonetheless, some Russian propaganda has been juxtaposing the Nato decision with Putin's words to present him as the dove, especially to the Global South, which was something of a focus of the increasingly-marginal SPIEF. More important, though, have been the warning signs within the Russian economy. Although certainly no Communist, Putin has often held an almost Bolshevik line on the economy: that somehow market forces ought to be able to be made to bend to indomitable political will. This works no better in the mid 2020s than it did in the late 1910s. Even technocrats, generally excluded from Putin's innermost circle and expected to shut up and get on with keeping the engines of the ship of state turning, have begun breaking cover. Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov warned that Russia was already 'on the verge' of economic recession, while Elvira Nabiullina, the highly capable governor of the Central Bank, made it clear that previous 4 per cent economic growth reflected not just defence spending but the take-up of idle industrial capacity and that it would not continue. Of late, Nabiullina has come under growing political attack from the hawks for her 'pessimism', but now hers is no longer an isolated voice of caution. Alexander Shokhin, chair of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, has frankly admitted that many companies are on the verge of default. Even the oligarch Arkady Rotenberg, one of Putin's closest childhood friends, has obliquely criticised the impact of the war and sanctions as businesses struggle with the high interest rates necessitated by the need to control inflation. Putin has tried to dispel this talk with his usual mix of confidence and implied threat: 'Some specialists and experts are pointing to the risks of stagnation or even a recession. This, of course, must not be allowed to happen under any circumstances.' Nonetheless, while it is questionable whether the defence budget is likely to be reduced at all while the war in Ukraine still wages – and even after, it will by necessity remain high as Russia rebuilds its ravaged armed forces – his words at SPIEF do suggest a belated awareness that there are serious economic risks and long-term consequences. These risks and consequences are not, though, enough in and of themselves to force Putin to end the war. When Russia is doing well in the war, the call from Kyiv and its Western supporters is for more sanctions to turn the tide; when it is doing badly, it is for more sanctions to finish the job. The truth of the matter is that while sanctions are working in imposing extra costs on the Russian war economy, neither they, nor the impact of the conflict, are going to 'crash' the system. The real risk for Putin is of prolonged economic decline, recession and stagflation. The challenge is that this will force Putin to make the hard guns versus butter decisions he has so far largely dodged. Of course, he will choose guns, and this runs the risk of deepening public and elite discontent. The economic technocrats, after all, are not the only ones who are sounding warnings – those in law enforcement are too. Interior Minister Kolokoltsev, a career police officer, is admitting that his force is now heavily understrength. Prosecutor General Krasnov, who made his reputation as a skilled investigator, is reporting that corruption cases have risen by 25 per cent since the same quarter last year. These are no dissidents, but insiders trying to warn the monarch of stresses on the system. Putin may at least be hearing them, but considering that he still seems committed to his war, can he offer more than empty promises in return?
Qatar Tribune
26-06-2025
- Politics
- Qatar Tribune
Russian advance in Sumy halted: Ukrainian commander
Kiev: Ukrainian forces have halted the Russian offensive in the Sumy border region in north-eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi posted on Telegram on Thursday. 'The advance by Russian troops in the border area of the Sumy region has been halted and the battle contact line stabilized,' Syrskyi said. Ukrainian forces had recovered territory previously lost to the Russian forces, he added. Russian forces had made incursions into Sumy after recovering parts of the Kursk region in western Russian from the Ukrainians. The region is seen as the main line of advance in Russia's summer offensive, with large numbers of troops engaged. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the creation of a buffer zone within Ukraine and did not rule out seizing the regional capital of Sumy at the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russian forces are still some 20 kilometres from the city, where they have become bogged down, according to observers. Syrskyi posted that Ukrainian fortifications in the region were being extended. Coordination with the local authorities would also be improved, he said.
The Citizen
26-06-2025
- Politics
- The Citizen
Anton Kobyakov: The quiet power behind Putin's Russia
Kobyakov, Putin's trusted advisor, shapes Russia's future from behind the scenes with sharp intellect and calm conviction. Anton Kobyakov, Russian presidential adviser, executive secretary of the Organising Committee for Russia's SCO Presidency in 2014-2015 and Russia's BRICS Presidency in 2015-2016 at the briefing for organisational aspects of hosting the SCO and BRICSD summits on July 07, 2015 in Ufa, Russia. (Photo by Host Photo Agency/Ria Novosti via Getty Images) Anton Kobyakov – remember the name. He is a soft-spoken, erudite and affable Russian politician who serves as a special advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also serves on the highest echelons of Roscongress, a state-owned enterprise responsible for various strategic initiatives, including international events assembly and management, as well as stakeholder relations and networks development. The unassuming Kobyakov, pictured, holds a degree in biology and a PhD in economics. He is a graduate of the Presidential Russian Civil Service Academy and his official title is 'Professor', although he never takes umbrage with being referred to simply as 'Mr Kobyakov'. He has had an illustrious career as a civil servant. From 1992-2003, he served as deputy governor of Kemerovo region before pro – ceeding to hold various posts in the Presidential Office from 2005 to date. But it is as a political tactician that Kobyakov – born on 23 June, 1968 – is better-known across the Russian circles through the length and breadth of the largest country in the world. Russia's total area stands at 17 098 242km² and also has 11 different time zones. ALSO READ: Trump says will speak to Putin to end Ukraine 'bloodbath' The 57-year-old academic high achiever works in the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation with a calm demeanour as a fountain of wisdom. His civil service rank is '1st class state advisor', loosely translated – an equivalence of the military rank of the army general or fleet admiral. Kobyakov's philosophy is interesting: 'Anything (in life) is either a poison or medicine, depending on the dose,' he told a packed press conference in St Petersburg, Russia's cultural mecca. At the recently completed St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Russia's flagship annual event, Kobyakov was tasked with single-handedly briefing up to 100 local and international journalists about the outcome of SPIEF 2025. The event was attended by 24 000 participants from 144 countries, Kobyakov announced. A total of 1 060 trade agreements were entered into over the five days, from 18-22 June. The agreements were worth 6.3 trillion rubles (about R1.4 trillion), said Kobyakov. 'We are seeing rapid fragmentation of the global economy,' he said. ALSO READ: Russia-Ukraine talks resume in Istanbul, but expectations remain low Kobyakov is a trusted ally of Putin, serving him as a special advisor since 2014. His reflections appear to represent Putin's and Putin's expressed views also appear to represent Kobyakov's. The two seem to be intricately intertwined, at least ideologically. As brothers-in-arms, they are no doubt joined at the hip. Reflecting on the current state of unpredictable geopolitics, Kobyakov said: 'We are witnessing tectonic shifts in the world. We see no international law.' Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, the European Union, along with most of the West, imposed an unprecedented barrage of sanctions on Russia. Kobyakov said Ukraine was itself a victim of the West's imperial agenda. 'Kyiv is on a tight leash,' he said, before singling out Britain. ALSO READ: UK urges Putin to 'get serious about peace' 'The UK has gone too far in managing this conflict.' The focus of the US and EU pushing to boost their military budgets is another example of the West's disinterest in peaceful coexistence and desire for continuous conflict that can never defeat Russia anyway. 'Russia will never allow any outsider to set their dirty boots on Russian soil,' Kobyakov warned. Given that Putin is 72 and the trusted veteran foreign affairs minister, Sergey Lavrov 75, Kobyakov appears to represent a Russian future that is intrinsically in sync with the present. This is despite his penchant to perform his duties under the radar.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Moscow to abolish teaching of Ukrainian language in occupied regions
The teaching of Ukrainian is to be abolished in the regions of the country occupied by Russian forces, the Moscow-based Kommersant daily reported on Monday. This is due to the "changing geopolitical situation in the world," the daily said, citing an Education Ministry draft curriculum. Among the reasons given by Russian President Vladimir Putin for launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, was the alleged suppression of the Russian language in Ukraine. He pledged that Russia would behave differently and would protect the use of Ukrainian. Until now, Ukrainian has been an obligatory subject in schools in those parts of the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions occupied by Russian forces. It has been an optional subject in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and in Crimea. The same goes for Bashkortostan in southern Russia. The new curriculum does not provide for the teaching of Ukrainian at all. Attempts by US President Donald Trump to launch talks to end the war have stalled, with Moscow rejecting a ceasefire along the current front line. At the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as a single people, saying that Ukraine as a whole belonged to Russia.
Gulf Insider
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Gulf Insider
Putin Says 'All Of Ukraine Is Ours' In Theory, Raises Possible Sumy Takeover
While much of global diplomacy as well as media coverage is currently focused on the now over week-long aerial war over the Middle East between Iran and Israel, President Vladimir Putin issued important remarks on the future of the 'special military operation' in Ukraine before the annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum. He said in the Friday speech he does not 'rule out' his forces taking control of Ukraine's northeastern city of Sumy amid the military initiative of creating a buffer zone along the border. 'We have no objective to take Sumy, but in principle I do not rule it out… They pose a constant threat to us, constantly shelling the border areas,' Putin told the audience. Starting in late May, Russian forces took control of the border villages of Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka, Hryhorov just inside Sumy Oblast as part of work on the buffer zone. As for the city of Sumy, it lies just 18 lies from the Russian border and has suffered from intermittent aerial attacks and shelling since the war's start. Putin has also raised eyebrows in the West due to his speech when he said, 'I consider Russians and Ukrainians to be one people. In that sense, all of Ukraine is ours,' he said, and added: 'There is a saying: wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that is ours.' This is being taken in the West as more confirmation that the US-backed peace process is struggling and barely alive, given neither side is in the mood to compromise. Currently Russian troops are up to 12km inside Sumy Oblast, putting them very close to the administrative capital of the oblast by the same name. German publication DW reviews: Sumy, though not among the five Ukrainian regions Moscow claims to have annexed — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea — has been a frequent target of Russian attacks. It also served as a launching point for a Ukrainian counteroffensive into Russia's western Kursk region last August, during which Kyiv's forces briefly captured dozens of settlements before being pushed back by Russian troops — bolstered by thousands of North Korean soldiers, according to reports. Russian forces have also most recently pushed beyond the western border of Donetsk and into the Dnepropetrovsk Region, again which also part of the push establish a 'buffer zone' on the front line. Russian media says troops advancing in Sumy, destroying NATO gear: 🚨🇷🇺RUSSIA EXPANDS BUFFER ZONE IN SUMYRussian stormtroopers just wiped out a Ukrainian armored group packed with NATO gear. — Sputnik (@SputnikInt) June 21, 2025 April, May, and early June have seen thousands of drones launched from Ukraine onto Russia's southern oblasts, with some drones targeting as far as Moscow, which has resulted in commercial flight stoppages at several area airports. Ukraine's 'Operation Spider's Web' did the most damage among these attacks, targeting airfields hosting parked heavy bombers. The timing of Putin's buffer zone plan was very significant, given that President Trump is increasingly being perceived as 'stepping back' from pursuit of a final peace settlement, perhaps content to 'let them fight it out'.
