Latest news with #Standard&Poor
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
IPOs surge 35% in H1 despite policy shifts, market volatility: EY
This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: The number of U.S. initial public offerings surged to 109 during the first half of 2025, increasing 35% compared with the same period last year despite stock market volatility and shifts in tariff and other policies, EY said. Although the number of IPOs is the biggest first-half tally since 2021, proceeds from offerings fell to $17.1 billion, or 9% less than the same period last year, EY said in a report. The IPO outlook worldwide 'remains cautiously optimistic,' with a solid pipeline for large offerings and a steady stream of smaller deals, EY said. Still, 'a broad-based resurgence in global IPO activity depends critically on cooperative trade frameworks, accommodative monetary policy, controlled inflation and geopolitical de-escalation.' Dive Insight: Unusually high policy uncertainty roiled the stock market during the first six months of the year, EY said, noting that the CBOE Volatility Index careened between 14.8 and 52.3, a gap five times wider than during the same period in 2024. The so-called VIX measures expected volatility in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. 'Fueled by uncertain U.S. trade policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, this heightened volatility is compelling companies to reimagine their exit strategies, stay private longer or pursue listings with smaller float sizes,' EY said. Shifts to trade, regulation, immigration and fiscal policies by the Trump administration have prompted Federal Reserve policymakers to hold off on trimming borrowing costs until they can determine the impact of such changes to inflation, employment and financial markets. 'Market volatility serves as a critical barometer for IPO activity,' signalling investor expectations for future price movements and influencing 'sentiment, valuation multiples and public market receptivity to new offerings,' EY said. Higher volatility usually indicates risk aversion and poses a challenge for IPO candidates. Yet global capital markets this year are apparently adapting to political and geopolitical shocks, improving the outlook for IPOs, EY said. 'Trade tariffs, regional conflicts and macro-policy uncertainty — once primary triggers for volatility — are increasingly being priced into asset valuations, with investors and companies adjusting to what many now regard as a 'new normal,'' according to EY. After turbulence during the first six months of 2025, equity markets have regained ground, the VIX and other 'fear indexes' have stabilized and companies launching IPOs are diversifying to markets with deep pools of capital such as Hong Kong, EY said. IPO activity in the U.S., Canada and Latin America quickened late in the second quarter as concerns about tariffs and economic vulnerabilities eased, EY said. U.S. IPOs in the period rose 20% on average during the first day of trading, and offerings that raised $50 million or more in gross proceeds returned 40% through the end of Q2, EY said. Five of the 10 largest IPOs occurred during June, Rachel Gerring, EY Americas IPO leader, said. 'This suggests that IPO aspirants are proactively preparing and becoming increasingly agile, seizing market opportunities as they arise,' she said in a statement. 'With this renewed momentum, we remain optimistic about the remainder of 2025, assuming broader economic indicators remain stable,' Gerring said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market
Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market originally appeared on TheStreet. Investors have struggled to ride the proverbial 'wall of worry' to record highs on the stock market. Buffeted by the volatility that followed President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement – and with continuing uncertainty about tax levies on imports – investors have been fighting a case of the nerves, struggling to trust the rally even as the numbers say they should. 💵💰 💵💰 As the Standard & Poor's 500 reached a record high closing level July 17 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite registered its tenth record close of the year, the American Association of Individual Investors was reporting increasing pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for equities. Optimism and neutral sentiment, meanwhile, waned. In these conditions, longtime market observers have struggled to find a parallel to today's market. They can point to the 1970s as a time of high inflation and interest rates, but the economic underpinnings were much different while there is plenty of mention of the last time the U.S. set import levies this high, those days of the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs were about a century ago, and no investor alive today recollects the market sentiment as the Roaring 20s came to a halt. Without being able to draw on a true market parallel, investors are flailing, unsatisfied with analogies and metaphors that have fallen short amid whipsaw headline risks. Amid that uncertainty, a veteran technical analyst's forecast for market results this year hasn't wavered or changed, even in the face of the April headlines and correction. He has seen his prediction not only hold up, but also deliver a flawless metaphor for the market's action in the first half of 2025. The market's action in 2025 defines 'clear-air turbulence' Mariner Wealth Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Krumpelman entered 2025 with a forecast of the Standard & Poor's 500 ending the year at or near $6,600, and with a theme that investors would live through 'clear-air turbulence.' Clear-air turbulence is an aviation term, and while Krumpelman is neither a pilot nor an aviator, he said on the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe podcast that 'it perfectly describes what's happened this year.' The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defines clear-air turbulence as sudden and severe air disturbances occurring in cloudless skies or between and among non-threatening cloud patterns that result in violent buffeting of aircraft. It is a higher-altitude phenomenon – typically occurring above 15,000 feet – that can drop a plane hundreds of feet in seconds. More on investing: The stock market is being led by a new group of winners Opendoor stock is another AMC or GameStop Warren Buffet has harsh words for stock market investors Sometimes called 'air pockets,' these bumps are hard to avoid because they are not visible in clear-air conditions. Krumpelman said that for all of the anxiety over the headlines, the economy is showing 'clear blue sky hard-data fundamentals.' 'And yet, you've got policy concerns and speculation about it that have caused us to hit these air pockets,' Krumpelman said. 'Through good pilot navigation and communication, you climb back to your original altitude and you get to your destination, you get your decent returns, but boy are you white-knuckled and you kiss the ground when you get there.' The stock market was struggling against headwinds after peaking in mid-February, but it hit an air pocket with Liberation Day on April 2, losing more than 12% of its value in six trading days. The path to S&P 6,600 by year's end Krumpelman says that while market reactions to subsequent tariff announcements have become increasingly muted, he sees more turbulence ahead, even as the market has recaptured record-breaking levels and is poised for more. Krumpelman says that the clear-air turbulence theme helped him and Mariner – which managed roughly $250 billion in assets – stay the course on the forecast with which they entered the year. He noted that a majority of financial firms 'have changed their price targets and their odds of recession time and again. They were bullish going into the year. They turned bearish around April. Then they turned bullish again….It can actually cause wealth destruction. It can cause premature selling activity, and it's just not helpful.'We've had a consistent message. It's been psychology and psychiatry that has caused [price/earnings ratios] to go from 22 to 18 back to 22,' he added. 'P/E volatility is self-correcting if the data remains solid. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that absolutely, we know with 100% certainty that this data is going to continue to trend in a positive direction but…the data is solid.' When the market sells against solid market data, Krumpelman says he sits tight. He has held his ground on 6,600 based on an assumed price/earnings level that he considers reasonable. 'And if everything is moving forward and it looks like earnings are going to continue to progress, margins are going to hold up, interest rates are going to stay at reasonable levels, we'll have a higher earnings figure 12 months from now,' Krumpelman said on the July 18 edition of Money Life. 'And we could be above 7,000 12 months forward.' Krumpelman noted that the firm is always looking one year out and puts a 60 to 65% probability on the 6,600-7,000 range within 12 months, with a 30% chance that 'the market goes nowhere.' Krumpelman said this would happen with 'continued, changing mixed news on tariffs that do drive inflation up just a little bit, that do slow things down, that have lingering impacts on CEO confidence, [making for] earnings that are just a little bit lighter than anticipated, and P/Es a little bit lighter. That takes us to nowhere over the next 12 months.' Krumpelman noted that what is not in the forecast for the next 12 months is a recession, because 'it's just not in the data.'Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 22, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 22, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market
Investors have struggled to ride the proverbial "wall of worry" to record highs on the stock market. Buffeted by the volatility that followed President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement – and with continuing uncertainty about tax levies on imports – investors have been fighting a case of the nerves, struggling to trust the rally even as the numbers say they should. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter As the Standard & Poor's 500 reached a record high closing level July 17 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite registered its tenth record close of the year, the American Association of Individual Investors was reporting increasing pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for equities. Optimism and neutral sentiment, meanwhile, waned. In these conditions, longtime market observers have struggled to find a parallel to today's market. They can point to the 1970s as a time of high inflation and interest rates, but the economic underpinnings were much different then. Related: Analyst who forecast Rocket Lab rally below $10 updates outlook And while there is plenty of mention of the last time the U.S. set import levies this high, those days of the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs were about a century ago, and no investor alive today recollects the market sentiment as the Roaring 20s came to a halt. Without being able to draw on a true market parallel, investors are flailing, unsatisfied with analogies and metaphors that have fallen short amid whipsaw headline risks. Amid that uncertainty, a veteran technical analyst's forecast for market results this year hasn't wavered or changed, even in the face of the April headlines and correction. He has seen his prediction not only hold up, but also deliver a flawless metaphor for the market's action in the first half of 2025. Mariner Wealth Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Krumpelman entered 2025 with a forecast of the Standard & Poor's 500 ending the year at or near $6,600, and with a theme that investors would live through "clear-air turbulence." Clear-air turbulence is an aviation term, and while Krumpelman is neither a pilot nor an aviator, he said on the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe podcast that "it perfectly describes what's happened this year." The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defines clear-air turbulence as sudden and severe air disturbances occurring in cloudless skies or between and among non-threatening cloud patterns that result in violent buffeting of aircraft. It is a higher-altitude phenomenon – typically occurring above 15,000 feet – that can drop a plane hundreds of feet in seconds. More on investing: The stock market is being led by a new group of winnersOpendoor stock is another AMC or GameStopWarren Buffet has harsh words for stock market investors Sometimes called "air pockets," these bumps are hard to avoid because they are not visible in clear-air conditions. Krumpelman said that for all of the anxiety over the headlines, the economy is showing "clear blue sky hard-data fundamentals." "And yet, you've got policy concerns and speculation about it that have caused us to hit these air pockets," Krumpelman said. "Through good pilot navigation and communication, you climb back to your original altitude and you get to your destination, you get your decent returns, but boy are you white-knuckled and you kiss the ground when you get there." The stock market was struggling against headwinds after peaking in mid-February, but it hit an air pocket with Liberation Day on April 2, losing more than 12% of its value in six trading days. Krumpelman says that while market reactions to subsequent tariff announcements have become increasingly muted, he sees more turbulence ahead, even as the market has recaptured record-breaking levels and is poised for more. Krumpelman says that the clear-air turbulence theme helped him and Mariner – which managed roughly $250 billion in assets – stay the course on the forecast with which they entered the year. He noted that a majority of financial firms "have changed their price targets and their odds of recession time and again. They were bullish going into the year. They turned bearish around April. Then they turned bullish again….It can actually cause wealth destruction. It can cause premature selling activity, and it's just not helpful. Related: Veteran analyst drops surprise call on Tesla ahead of earnings "We've had a consistent message. It's been psychology and psychiatry that has caused [price/earnings ratios] to go from 22 to 18 back to 22," he added. "P/E volatility is self-correcting if the data remains solid. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that absolutely, we know with 100% certainty that this data is going to continue to trend in a positive direction but…the data is solid." When the market sells against solid market data, Krumpelman says he sits tight. He has held his ground on 6,600 based on an assumed price/earnings level that he considers reasonable. "And if everything is moving forward and it looks like earnings are going to continue to progress, margins are going to hold up, interest rates are going to stay at reasonable levels, we'll have a higher earnings figure 12 months from now," Krumpelman said on the July 18 edition of Money Life. "And we could be above 7,000 12 months forward." Krumpelman noted that the firm is always looking one year out and puts a 60 to 65% probability on the 6,600-7,000 range within 12 months, with a 30% chance that "the market goes nowhere." Krumpelman said this would happen with "continued, changing mixed news on tariffs that do drive inflation up just a little bit, that do slow things down, that have lingering impacts on CEO confidence, [making for] earnings that are just a little bit lighter than anticipated, and P/Es a little bit lighter. That takes us to nowhere over the next 12 months." Krumpelman noted that what is not in the forecast for the next 12 months is a recession, because "it's just not in the data." Related: Morgan Stanley resets S&P 500 target for 2026 The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock Market Today: Dow slumps; S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally
Stock Market Today: Dow slumps; S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally originally appeared on TheStreet. It's a tale of two markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, weighted in favor of the highest-priced stocks, is slumping. The Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq indexes, weighted in favor of market capitalizations, are higher. It's more than that. The Dow has includes six financial stocks, 20% of the total, and they're all lower today: JP Morgan Chase () , Goldman Sachs () , UnitedHealth Group () , Travelers Companies () , American Express () and Visa () . The winners so far today are techs: Nvidia () , Microsoft () , and Apple () and the top dog in consumer discretionary stocks: () . And Goldman is the priciest of the Dow stocks at $706, while Amazon, Apple and Nvidia are among the lower-priced stocks. Microsoft is the outlier of the group at $507, up nearly $4. At 12:25 ET, the Dow was down 280 points at 44,180. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was 1 point at 6,267, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 126 points at 20,767. The Nasdaq-100 Index was up 111 points to 22,966 after hitting a new high of 23.051. In the first half-hour of trading, the major indexes were mostly higher. We say mostly because the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 87 points, which is actually a small decline on a percentage basis. The blue-chips were at 44,373, off 0.2%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up a modest eight points to 6,277, but that was after hitting a 52-week high right after the open. The Nasdaq Composite had added 112 points or 0.5% to 20,753. It also hit a 52-week high soon after the open. Not to be a party pooper, the Nasdaq-100 Index was up 130 points to 22,986 after hitting a new high of 23.051. Nvidia () , Broadcom AVGO and Coinbase () also hit new highs. Bitcoin was off $1,559 to $118,377, a day after hitting a new high of $123,166. This morning's earnings reports are all about the banks. JP Morgan Chase () , BlackRock () , Citigroup () , Wells Fargo () and Bank of New York Mellon () all reported earnings that topped expectations. As for future statements, not all was rosy, with Wells Fargo guiding lower. Citigroup is the only one trading higher, gaining as much as 3%, while Wells Fargo is down close to 4%. The Consumer Price Index is the other big news this morning. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that June CPI rose 0.3%, which was in line with expectations. Year over year, the CPI gained 2.7%. That's faster than May's 2.4% increase. Higher food and energy costs were behind the faster inflation, Bloomberg reported. Core CPI gained 0.2%, which was better than expected. The core figure was below forecasts for the fifth straight month, the news service reported. So, how are stocks looking this morning? Up! S&P 500 futures have been rallying since yesterday's close (black line, below) and are up 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is even stronger, gaining 0.7% in premarket trading. The long end of the U.S. treasury curve is stronger (yields are down). Gold and crude are lower, while copper is slightly higher. Stock Market Today: Dow slumps; S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 15, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 15, 2025, where it first appeared. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Miami Herald
14-07-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stock Market Today: Tariffs weigh on stocks again
Stocks looked to open lower on Monday after President Trump threatened higher tariffs on goods from a host of countries. The new tariffs would take effect Aug. 1 unless Canada (25%), Mexico (30%), the EU (30%) and others can get a deal done. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Futures trading in the Standard & Poor's 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index were all lower by about 0.3%. European stocks were mostly lower, with Germany's Dax Index and France's CAC-40 Index down as much as 0.5%. Related: Where's the inflation? Not in stores - yet Bitcoin topped $120,000 in early trading and briefly reached a record $123,166. Coinbase (COIN) , MicroStrategy (MSTR) , and Robinhood (HOOD) were higher in premarket trading. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.438%, up from Friday's 4.412%. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
