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Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
Liquidity surplus alone doesn't boost broad credit growth, economic activity holds greater influence: StanChart report
Standard Chartered Bank (Image credits: IANS) Credit growth in the economy is influenced more by overall economic activity than by the size of the liquidity surplus, according to a recent report by international bank Standard Chartered. The report said that while a high liquidity surplus may support growth in unsecured personal loans (excluding consumer durable loans), it does not necessarily lead to broad-based credit expansion. "Credit growth depends more on economic activity than the size of the liquidity surplus; however, unsecured personal loan growth (ex-consumer durables) could get a fillip on a large liquidity surplus," reported ANI quoting the report. It noted that credit growth, excluding unsecured personal and consumer durable loans, tends to slow down during times of excess liquidity. This points to real credit demand, which is closely tied to economic activity, being a stronger driver than the availability or cost of funds. The central banks often respond to slowing economic activity by increasing liquidity as a counter-cyclical measure. However, even with such efforts, overall credit (excluding unsecured personal and consumer durable loans) as a share of GDP has historically declined during times of high liquidity surplus. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Eat 1 Teaspoon Every Night, See What Happens A Week Later [Video] getfittoday Undo Citing one example, the report said that between December 2016 and September 2017, when liquidity surplus ranged between 2.6% and 3.3% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL), credit (excluding unsecured personal and consumer durable loans) as a share of GDP fell from 48.9% to 46.2%. This downward trend continued until mid-2019. In contrast, unsecured personal loans (excluding consumer durables) have shown a strong upward trend over the past decade, with their share in GDP more than doubling to around 6%. This growth is driven by structural factors such as greater credit access and the rise of digital lending. However, the pace of expansion in this segment tends to pick up during periods of high liquidity. For instance, during March 2021 to March 2023, when liquidity conditions were relaxed, the share of unsecured personal loans in GDP rose faster than in previous similar periods, the report highlighted. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now


The Star
3 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Singapore company allegedly received US$45mil illegally from abroad, two men charged
Two men were handed one charge each on June 26, 2025 for being involved in carrying out a business of providing payment services illegally. - Photo: ST file SINGAPORE: Two men were charged in court on Thursday (June 26), after the company they were involved in allegedly received about US$45 million (S$57.4 million) over multiple transactions illegally. Patrick Lee Paik Cheng, 65, a Malaysian and the director of Tupt, and Dinh Tien Dat, 28, a Vietnamese, who is said to have been in a position to influence the conduct of the company, were handed one charge each for being involved in carrying out a business of providing payment services illegally. Company records show that Tupt, a Singapore company, is a wholesale business that can operate on a fee or commission basis. According to court documents, it received US$44,951,709.70 between July 28, 2020, and April 29, 2022, from outside Singapore via 26 transactions in an RHB bank account and 32 transactions in a Standard Chartered Bank account. Said the police in a statement: 'The Commercial Affairs Department's investigations established that neither the men nor the company have a licence to carry out a business that provides any type of payment service in Singapore, nor were they considered as exempted payment service providers under the Payment Services Act 2019.' In court on June 26, Dinh said he wanted to plead guilty to his charge, while Lee did not indicate his plea. Dinh is expected to plead guilty on Aug 7, while Lee's case was adjourned for a further mention on July 24. If convicted, the men can each be fined up to $125,000, jailed for up to three years, or both. In its statement, the police said it will not hesitate to act against any individual or entity involved in providing unlicensed cross-border money transfer services. It added: 'Members of the public are strongly advised to use financial institutions or payment service providers licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore when conducting cross-border money transfers. 'The police would like to caution against engaging in unlicensed payment service activities, as unlicensed payment service providers are not regulated and are not subjected to stringent anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures.' - The Straits Times/ANN

Straits Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Singapore, Asia markets fall as oil surges after US airstrikes on Iran, raising fears of a supply shock
SINGAPORE - Stock markets in Asia slid and oil prices soared on June 23 after US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities raised the threat of further military escalation in a region that accounts for a third of global crude output. Singapore's Straits Times Index dropped 0.55 per cent as at 10.34am. The global oil benchmark Brent traded at US$76.75 a barrel, up 1.68 per cent, after surging 5.7 per cent to US$81.40 earlier in the morning. The United States on June 22 sent military jets to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites in a mission dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer. Analysts warned that if Iran chooses to target in retaliation one of the several US military bases across the region, it could invite counter strikes by the US and its regional allies, and send Brent to highs around US$139 a barrel seen during the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Economic consequences of a move to block and cut supplies of crude and liquified natural gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow waterway on the shores of Iran that links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and, ultimately, to the Indian Ocean and the rest of the world - could be even more disastrous. The International Monetary Fund estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices lowers global gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. The World Bank estimates suggest that a 10 per cent increase in oil prices raises headline or all-items inflation by 0.4 percentage points in a median economy. An oil price shock is transmitted rather quickly to prices of household essentials as they tend to push electricity tariffs and transport costs higher. Everything from imported food items to bus and train fares will become more expensive if oil prices maintain the surge from US$60 a barrel in early May 2025 to current levels. Ms Madhur Jha, Standard Chartered Bank's global economist and head of thematic research, said: ''A move above US$90 per barrel would constitute an oil price shock,'' adding oil price shocks are reflected in headline inflation within a quarter. StanChart placed Singapore 6th in global ranking of economies sensitive to rising oil prices. The Republic's net oil imports account for 4.5 per cent of GDP and transport costs constitute 13.1 per cent of its all-items inflation basket, the bank estimates. Mr Jonathan Ng, OCBC's Asean economist, said that given the fragile market risk sentiment a wider escalation could send Brent crude prices to as high as US$120 per barrel. This would be a 73 per cent spike on Brent's closing price of US$69.36 on June 12, the day before Israel launched its first attack on Iran. ''Under this circumstance, further sanctions on Iran and blockages of trade routes in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out, as this is a critical transit route for oil from the Middle East to the rest of the global oil market,'' he said. According to the International Energy Agency, an average of 20 million barrels per day of oil, or about 30 per cent of global seaborne oil trade, passed through the route between January-October 2023. However, so far Iran has not attacked any US assets in the region and has not made any moves to curtail flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian parliament has endorsed closing the strait, but experts believe the parliament has no effective authority to do so. Still the cost of hiring a ship to carry crude from the Middle East to China has jumped close to 90 per cent since before the June 13 Israeli attacks on Iran began. Earnings for vessels carrying fuels like gasoline and jet fuel have also leaped, as have insurance premiums paid shippers. There are also some mitigating factors when considering the closure of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - world's top oil exporters - have the capacity to divert a meaningful portion of their current Gulf exports through pipelines, which would partially alleviate the adverse effects of any closure or major shipping disruptions. The alternate ports are however in the Red Sea and thus vulnerable if Yemen decides to join the fray. The US halted its bombing campaign against Yemen's Houthis last month after the Iran-aligned group agreed to stop targeting shipping in the Red Sea. The closure of Hormuz is always flagged as a risk whenever tension arises in the Middle East. But so far, despite Iran's repeated threats to do so, it has yet to follow through, due to the adverse consequences for its own oil outlet, let alone the potential response from the international community. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.


Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Standard Chartered Bank scouting for partners for green loans to small businesses
Mumbai: Standard Chartered Bank is scouting for partners to explore green lending to small businesses in India, having started a similar pilot project in Singapore, a senior official said. Xie Wen, global head of SME (small and medium enterprise) banking at the British bank said in an interview that the lender has green deposits and structured products, and is contemplating starting green financing products as well. This, she said, requires a partner that can help them track the usage of such green loans as well as the carbon footprint. 'For ESG, there are a few areas you can look at and you either track the purpose. (Whether) every loan is going to environmental (initiatives or not). That tracking of the purpose is important,' said Wen. 'In India, we're exploring. We're looking for such data providers where you could do that.' Having joined Standard Chartered Bank in 1997, Wen has held leadership roles in risk management and business development across markets and regions. Prior to her current role, she has worked as the country chief risk officer for Singapore, China, and country head of commercial banking in China, among others. 'For transition financing, you need to track carbon footprint,' said Wen. While such data is easily available for large companies, it is not so for small businesses, she said. Green lending refers to financial products and services that encourage eco-friendly projects. Financial services that support borrowers to align business and operations in line with the objectives of the international climate change treaty are referred to as transition finance, as per the United Nations. Meanwhile, public and private financial institutions have a critical role to play in financing the SME green transition, as per global policy forum Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or OECD. Globally, the London-headquartered bank has total green assets of $17.39 billion as of September 2024, in themes like clean transportation, energy efficiency, green buildings, and renewable energy, besides others. Meanwhile, the bank is focused on growing its SME business in India. In fact, Mint reported in October that following the recent sale of its personal loan business to Kotak Mahindra Bank, the lender is now looking to 'double down' on affluent banking, SME loans, and wealth management. The bank currently has about 27,000 SME customers in India, as per the Mint report. Wen said that Standard Chartered Bank has SME businesses in 18 markets, with its full suite of services available in eight of these. India, she said, is among the top three markets for small businesses, with Hong Kong and Singapore being the other two. 'You have different strengths and different focuses (for different markets). It is more because of the market itself. But in terms of asset growth, financing growth, India has been the top market,' said Wen. On the broader ESG—environmental, social, and governance—awareness among smaller clients in India, Wen said there has been progress and will improve over time. She said that as long as more industry players are focusing on it, ESG awareness will increase. 'As I mentioned, there's a first step to increase awareness. We have a simplified questionnaire when we actually onboard clients, SME clients. The idea, through the questionnaire, is to educate the SMEs about ESG requirements,' said Wen. India's small businesses — micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) — employ a large number of people. As per government data released in February, 59.3 million registered MSMEs provide employment to over 250 million. In 2023-24, MSME-related products accounted for 45.7% of India's total exports, as compared to 43.6% in FY23, and 45% in FY22. To be sure, the government has introduced a scheme to allow small businesses access discounted finance from institutions to adopt green technologies. The MSME ministry in December 2023 launched MSME Green Investment Financing for Transformation (MSE - GIFT) scheme.


BusinessToday
22-06-2025
- Business
- BusinessToday
Positioning For A Weak Dollar
Standard Chartered Bank is maintaining an 'Overweight' stance on global equities, anticipating a constructive yet volatile second half of 2025. The bank's positive outlook is largely underpinned by expectations of a weaker US dollar, global policy easing, and a strong probability of the US economy achieving a soft landing. In its latest market outlook, Standard Chartered highlights that a weakening US dollar historically benefits global equities, particularly non-US assets. Consequently, the bank has upgraded its position on Asia ex-Japan equities to 'Overweight,' signaling confidence in the region's growth prospects. They also favor 5-7 year maturities in US dollar bonds and have upgraded Emerging Market (EM) local currency bonds to 'Overweight,' noting their potential to benefit from a weaker greenback and anticipated rate cuts by EM central banks. 'Policy easing worldwide, strong chances of a US soft landing, and a weaker USD are supportive of risky assets,' stated the bank in its report. 'We favour diversified global equity exposure.' The second quarter of 2025 has been characterized by significant market fluctuations, including events such as 'Liberation Day' (referring to the transition of Nifty contracts to SGX GIFT City in July 2023) and ongoing Middle East tensions. Despite this volatility, global equities have seen an approximate 8% gain quarter-to-date. Looking ahead to H2 2025, Standard Chartered expects economic and earnings growth to remain constructive. The US economy, despite earlier soft survey data, has shown resilience in 'hard data,' supporting the bank's belief in a soft landing scenario. This is further bolstered by supportive fiscal and monetary policies across the US, Europe, and Asia. However, the bank cautions investors to remain vigilant against several key risks. The end of President Trump's 90-day tariff 'pause' in early July is a point of concern, with Standard Chartered expecting extensions that may be accompanied by heightened rhetoric in trade discussions. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia also continue to simmer, with the former posing a potential, though likely brief, risk of higher energy prices. Standard Chartered's base case anticipates these risks will result in temporary, rather than sustained, volatility. The top three risks closely monitored by the bank include: A sustained rise in trade tariffs. A significant jump in oil prices due to geopolitical events. A sudden decline in US hard economic data towards recessionary levels. To mitigate these risks and navigate potential temporary volatility, Standard Chartered identifies Gold and Alternative Strategies as attractive diversifiers for investment portfolios.