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CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
What biggest investing trends of 2025's first half suggest about market's future path
At the halfway point of the year, one trend clearly evident among investors is the search for resilient trades. "This year, and even so in the last couple of weeks, we've just seen this idea of investors building more resiliency into their portfolios," Matt Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors, said on a recent CNBC "ETF Edge." "I think many investors heading into 2025 actually had very 'un-resilient' portfolios," he added. Will this trend stay in place after the U.S. stock market's big comeback from the April lows?At the first half's closing low on April 8, the S&P 500 was down 15% year-to-date, according to CNBC data. At its closing high last Friday, the index was up 5% YTD. That could lead investors to pile back into U.S. stocks. Bartolini noted that the trend of investing in international stocks over the past six months was a departure for many U.S. investors who previously concentrated on the U.S. market alone. He expects international diversification to stick around. "We saw greater inflows into non-U.S. equities than their market share would indicate, and I think that trend will likely continue in the second half," Bartolini said. Geopolitical uncertainty, such as in the Middle East, has the potential to change the course of markets in ways that can't be expected, and that is one more reason mitigating risk is on many investors' minds right now. "You shouldn't react to intraday news," said John Davi, CIO at Astoria Portfolio Advisors, on "ETF Edge." "You should have thoughtful portfolio construction to plan for periods of uncertainty," he said. Davi said 2025's first half was a period for the construction of a multi-asset, all-weather portfolio, including assets like gold and commodities. But where they go next is difficult to say given the recent Mideast conflict. Commodities are usually safe trades during periods of uncertainty, said Davi, mentioning oil and gold. Gold reached a record high this year, but has slipped over the past month even with the Israel-Iran conflict unsettling markets. Oil, meanwhile, sold off during the recent conflict in a way that few expected, and in contrast to typical oil price increases during conflicts in the Middle East. Davi said while the recent dips in gold and oil were notable, there is not enough data to question whether the role these assets have played during times of volatility is changing. As the second half of the year begins, he said, "It's too early to tell" how oil and gold will trend, and investors should not place too much emphasis on the recent trading headwinds for these assets. Disclaimer
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This could be the biggest threat to the rally, strategist says
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is inching closer to another record high, but State Street Global Advisors US SPDR Business chief investment strategist Michael Arone cautions that there is something that could derail the rally. Find out what it is in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here.
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Australia's core inflation hits 3-1/2-year low, firming July rate cut wagers
By Stella Qiu SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australian consumer price inflation slowed more than expected in May, while the closely watched core measure hit three-and-a-half-year lows as investors locked in bets for an imminent rate cut. Swaps now imply a 90% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut rates by a quarter-point when it delivers its policy decision on July 8, a day before the expiry of a 90-pause in U.S. reciprocal tariffs on other countries. That was up from 81% before the data. "We are convinced that the RBA needs to cut in July to safeguard growth as inflation is clearly out of their way now," said Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors. "We are tracking faint consumption and growth in Q2, and hence, the bank may do well to frontload the cut to July." Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1% in May compared with a year earlier. That was down from 2.4% in April and under median forecasts of 2.3%. In the month, CPI fell 0.4% from April as petrol prices eased and housing costs cooled. Crucially, the trimmed mean measure of core inflation increased at a slower annual pace of 2.4% in May, coming under the mid-point of the 2-3% target band. That was down from 2.8% in April and also the lowest reading since late 2021. The RBA has cut interest rates twice since February to 3.85% as cooling inflation at home offered scope to counter rising global trade risks. However, the economy barely grew in the first quarter as consumers stayed stubbornly frugal on heightened worries about the economic impact of U.S. tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. All of that argued for more policy easing from the RBA in the months ahead, with investors expecting a total easing of 78 basis points by the end of the year. Analysts at TD Securities on Wednesday changed their next rate cut call to July, from August, after the "big downside miss" in the CPI report. "The RBA's likely comfort on most inflation metrics brings forward our prior Aug and Nov cuts to July and Aug," they said in a note to clients. "We lower the terminal rate from 3.35% to 3.10%." The labour market has so far stayed resilient. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1% and job advertisements are stabilising above pre-COVID levels. Wages have been well-behaved, with growth in the private sector mostly subdued. Wednesday's report showed services inflation slowed to an annual rate of 3.3%, from 4.1% the previous month, while rents rose 4.5%, the lowest annual growth since December 2022. New dwelling prices were flat in the month, while holiday travel and accommodation prices fell 7% after a 6% rise in April, which was driven by holiday demand. 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
The Guardian
25-06-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Falling inflation rate boosts chances of RBA interest rate cut and relief for mortgage holders
Australia's inflation rate has eased again, bolstering expectations the Reserve Bank will lower the cash rate next month and bring further reprieve for mortgage holders. The headline inflation rate was 2.1% in the 12 months to May, down sharply on the previous month's figure of 2.4%, according to consumer price index figures released on Wednesday. KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said there was a 'continued pattern of deflation across the Australian economy'. 'This could provide comfort to the Reserve Bank at its next meeting, knowing that any cut to the cash rate will occur in a stable inflationary environment,' Rynne said. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Krishna Bhimavarapu, economist at State Street Global Advisors, said: 'We are convinced that the RBA needs to cut in July to safeguard growth as inflation is clearly out of their way now.' While the monthly result can be volatile and is viewed as less authoritative than quarterly figures, the steep fall has pushed inflation towards the bottom of the RBA's 2-3% target range. The RBA's preferred CPI measure, the 'trimmed mean' or underlying inflation rate that strips out volatile items and various government subsidies, decreased to 2.4% from 2.8%. Markets upped their bets on a rate cut after the data was released, with markets now indicating near consensus support for a quarter point cut on 8 July. In total, traders expect three more rate cuts this year. While further rate cuts will be welcomed by mortgage holders, any further reduction in borrowing rates is expected to fuel another surge in property prices, making homes more unaffordable for prospective buyers. Economists at the major banks still believe the RBA will wait until August to cut. ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said the July meeting would be a 'close call'. 'It's going to be a pretty tough decision and it really depends on how concerned the RBA is about what's been happening globally,' Dunk said. She said the disruption caused by the initial US tariff announcements had faded, giving economic activity a chance to stabilise.
Reuters
25-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Australia's core inflation hits 3-1/2-year low, firming July rate cut case
SYDNEY, June 25 (Reuters) - Australian consumer price inflation slowed more than expected in May, while the closely watched core measure eased to three-and-a-half-year lows in a boost to the case for a rate cut just next month. The slowdown in the core gauge prodded investors to ramp up bets for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in July to 90%, from 81% before. For all of 2025, another three rate cuts have been fully priced in. Three-year bond futures rose 2 ticks to 96.74, while the Australian dollar held earlier gains of 0.2% at $0.6504. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1% in May compared with a year earlier. That was down from 2.4% in April and under median forecasts of 2.3%. In the month, CPI fell 0.4% from April as petrol prices eased and housing costs cooled. The trimmed mean measure of core inflation increased by an annual 2.4% in May, coming under the mid-point of the 2-3% target band. That was down from 2.8% in April and also the lowest reading since late 2021. A measure excluding volatile items and holiday travel dipped to 2.7%, from 2.8%. "We are convinced that the RBA needs to cut in July to safeguard growth as inflation is clearly out of their way now," said Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors. "We are tracking faint consumption and growth in Q2, and hence, the bank may do well to frontload the cut to July." The RBA has cut interest rates twice since February to 3.85% as cooling inflation at home offered scope to counter rising global trade risks. However, economic growth has remained subdued as consumers stayed frugal, with U.S. tariffs and geopolitical conflicts darkening the economic outlook. The labour market has proved to be resilient. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1% and job advertisements are stabilising above pre-COVID levels. Wages have been well-behaved, with growth in the private sector mostly subdued. Wednesday's report showed services inflation slowed to an annual rate of 3.3%, from 4.1% the previous month, while rents rose 4.5%, the lowest annual growth since December 2022. New dwelling prices were flat in the month, while holiday travel and accommodation prices fell 7% after a 6% rise in April, which was driven by holiday demand.
