14-06-2025
India's real fertility crisis is about choice, not numbers
Also by Andrea M Wojnar
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has released its State of the World Population Report 2025, which focuses on 'Real fertility crises: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world'. As fertility rates decline worldwide, the crisis lies not in population numbers but in unmet reproductive aspirations of women and couples. It specifically refers to the gap between an individual's or couple's desires regarding children and family size and the social, cultural, or policy-driven expectations placed on them. Concerns about population shifts are driving demographic anxiety that is undermining the reproductive autonomy of women globally, including in India.
Global demographics are transforming at a whirlwind pace. Fertility rates are declining, and the world's population is projected to peak this century. The global fertility rate has decreased from around 5 in 1960 to 3.3 in 1990 and 2.2 in 2024, though significant regional variations exist. Fertility rates less than 2 are becoming the norm, with more than half of the world's countries — accounting for more than two-thirds of the global population — having a fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman (World Fertility Report 2024). Globally, it is projected that all countries will have a fertility level less than 4 by 2054.
In India, the national fertility rate declined from 2.9 in 2005 to 2.0 in 2020 (SRS, 2020) although large inter-state variations exist. The overall population of children under five peaked in 2004, followed by a peak in the number of children and adolescents under 15 in 2009. These large cohorts of young people, combined with increasing life expectancy and declining mortality rates, will continue to drive population growth for some time, with India's population projected to reach its peak in the middle of this century.
As part of the report, the UNFPA and YouGov conducted an online survey of over 14,000 adults across 14 countries to better understand people's reproductive experiences and challenges. A central finding was widespread unmet reproductive aspirations: Many individuals face obstacles both in avoiding unintended pregnancies and in having children when they want to. In India, over 36 per cent of respondents reported an unintended pregnancy, while over 30 per cent were unable to have a child when they wished to. This reflects a dual challenge: Underachieved fertility, where people have fewer children than desired, and overachieved fertility, where they have more children than they intended. National data from NFHS-5 underscores this, with 9.4 per cent of currently married women aged 15–49 reporting an unmet need for family planning. Among 14,000 respondents who reported having or wanting children, the most commonly cited challenges were economic, ranging from financial insecurity and unemployment to inadequate housing and limited access to quality childcare.
These are compounded by social norms and unequal relationship dynamics. Increasingly, women report difficulty in finding a suitable partner and negotiating equitable division of household and caregiving responsibilities. Marriage in India continues to place a burden on women, who are expected to manage cooking, child-rearing, and other domestic duties. The lack of supportive workplace policies such as paid parental leave, flexible hours, and childcare facilities further discourages women from balancing careers with family life. There is also the fear of career setbacks or discrimination due to pregnancy. For many women in the informal sector, these supportive policies do not exist. A growing number of women and couples are also expressing hesitation about raising children in a difficult global environment.
It is important to address infertility, an issue stigmatised in India, where marriage is often equated with childbearing. Despite advances in healthcare, many women still face barriers in accessing maternal care and reproductive health information. For couples struggling with infertility, the options are often limited, expensive, or poorly regulated. Treatments are dominated by private players, and high costs, combined with lack of insurance coverage, make the experience prohibitively expensive for most.
Reproductive agency is further constrained by widespread reliance on sterilisation. Encouraging access to reversible, modern contraception methods, not just for birth control but also to preserve choice, is essential to ensure people can plan families on their own terms.
Another challenge lies in changing patterns of childbearing. Early childbearing is on the decline, with more women choosing to have children later in life (World Fertility Report, 2024). In India, many educated, working individuals from higher income groups are marrying in their late 20s or early 30s and having their first child soon after. However, when it comes to a second child, spacing practices — critical for maternal, child and societal health — are overlooked. According to NFHS-5, 4 per cent of currently married women aged 15–49 report unmet needs for spacing. This is shaped by social norms that discourage contraceptive use and a preference for male children. These factors undermine women's reproductive autonomy. The stigma around family-planning conversations needs to be dismantled urgently.
The global conversation around population shifts is filled with alarmist narratives, with blame often directed toward women. This rising demographic anxiety stems not from unforeseen developments but from a failure of planning and policy foresight. The discourse is dominated by concerns about an ageing population, declining fertility rates, and, in some cases, overpopulation. Yet, what people themselves want for their fertility, families, and futures continues to be ignored.
The moment calls for a proactive perspective to engage women, families and communities around their reproductive autonomy through informed choices. The future lies in building a country's capacity to anticipate, adapt to, and take advantage of demographic changes within a human rights framework. By centring reproductive policies on people's aspirations rather than controlling their choices, we can move toward a model of demographic resilience and a future rooted in dignity, equity, and reproductive autonomy.
Rajan is chair, The International Institute of Migration and Development, Kerala, and Wojnar is UNFPA India representative and country director, Bhutan
