Latest news with #StephanieGuichard
Fibre2Fashion
a day ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Euro area LEI falls in June, signals persistent economic weakness: TCB
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the euro area declined by 0.5 per cent in June 2025 to 99.3 (2016=100), following declines of 0.9 per cent and 0.2 per cent in April and May respectively. Overall, the LEI contracted by 2.6 per cent over the first half of 2025, still a slower rate of decline than the 3.4 per cent experienced over the second half of 2024. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which gauges the current state of the economy, rose by 0.2 per cent in June to 109.9. This follows an unchanged reading in May and brings the CEI's total growth for the first half of 2025 to 0.6 per cent, slightly higher than the 0.4 per cent improvement seen in the previous six-month period, TCB said in a press release. The Conference Board LEI for the euro area fell 0.5 per cent in June 2025, marking a 2.6 per cent decline in H1, though slower than H2 2024. The CEI rose 0.2 per cent, indicating modest growth. Despite easing recession signals, broad weakness persists across LEI components. The Conference Board projects euro area GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025, unchanged from 2024. 'The euro area LEI continued to decline in June,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, at The Conference Board. 'As in recent months, all non-financial components weighed on the Index, especially consumer confidence and volume of order books but also business expectations in both the service and manufacturing sectors. The positive yield spread and improvements in the systemic stress indicator mitigated the depth of overall Index's decline.' While the LEI's six-month growth trajectory no longer signals recession risks, the widespread weakness across its components continues to point to economic headwinds. Following strong growth in Q1, the Conference Board does not expect the momentum to have continued into Q2 and project euro area gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by just 0.9 per cent in 2025, unchanged from 2024. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
01-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US Consumer Confidence Index drops sharply in June 2025: TCB
US consumer confidence declined significantly in June 2025. The Conference Board (TCB) Consumer Confidence Index fell by 5.4 points to 93, reversing nearly half of May's strong gains. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index showed broad-based deterioration, reflecting growing pessimism about current conditions and the near-term outlook. The Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers' assessment of current business and labour market conditions, dropped 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which captures short-term outlooks for income, business, and employment, declined by 4.6 points to 69—well below the 80-point threshold that typically signals a recession ahead, as per data by The Conference Board. US consumer confidence fell in June 2025, with The Conference Board Index dropping 5.4 points to 93. Both present and future outlooks weakened, with the Expectations Index plunging to 69, signalling recession risks. Pessimism grew about job prospects, business conditions, and income expectations. Inflation and tariffs remained top concerns, though inflation fears slightly eased. 'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labour market. The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.' Consumer sentiment towards current business conditions worsened, with 19 per cent describing them as good, down from 21.4 per cent in May, while those saying conditions were bad rose to 15.3 per cent. Views on the labour market also cooled, with the share of respondents stating jobs were 'plentiful' dropping to 29.2 per cent. Future expectations further darkened in June. Only 16.7 per cent of consumers anticipated business conditions would improve, while 24 per cent expected them to worsen. Expectations for job availability also dipped, with 15.4 per cent expecting more jobs—down from 18.6 per cent. Income expectations followed a similar trend, with just 16.3 per cent expecting higher incomes in the months ahead. Despite the gloomier outlook, consumers' assessments of their current and expected family financial situations remained resilient. However, the perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next year stayed elevated. 'Consumers' write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy. Tariffs remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices,' added Guichard. 'Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month. This is in line with a cooling in consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations to 6 per cent (down from 6.4 per cent in May and 7 per cent in April). References to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers' views.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
With Consumer Confidence Sliding, Could Shoe Sales Slow Sooner Than Later?
Consumers are concerned about tariffs and they are less confident than they were last month — that does not bode well for footwear sales. 'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains,' Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board's senior economist, global Indicators, said. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.' More from WWD Footwear Firms Rejiggering Supply Chains Will See Long-Term Benefits May Swiss Watch Exports Slump After U.S. Tariff-led Surge All Eyes Are on Nike Ahead of Q4 Earnings The Conference Board said on Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation component fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index fell 4.6 points to 69.0, representing a level that was substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals that a recession is ahead. 'Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market,' Guichard said. She noted that the three components of the Expectations Index — business conditions, employment prospects, and future income — all weakened. And consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, with optimism about future income prospects eroding slightly. The data points also reflected that the retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups, and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, withe the largest decline among Republicans, the Conference Board said. As for write-in responses in June's survey, Guichard said that tariffs 'remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices.' Consumers also cite inflation and high prices as concerns. While dining out was one of the few categories to see spending intentions rise in June, most other categories saw declines. While shoe prices at retail slid 1.6 percent in June from a year ago in May, that's already changing. Gary Raines, chief economist at the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), told Footwear News that there was mounting evidence of surging average duties per pair on footwear imports. 'These higher duties soon may push the average landed cost of footwear imports sharply higher, which in turn may pressure retail footwear prices to climb later this year,' FDRA's Raines said. Nike last month said it was raising some retail prices at its U.S. stores starting June 1, but not for any goods priced at $100 or less. The sports apparel and footwear brand also won't be raising prices for any kids's footwear or apparel items. In addition, there are no scheduled increases for any Jordan product. The average price uptick for apparel and equipment is between $2 and $10, while footwear currently between $100 and $150 will see increases up to $5 and those starting at $150 and higher will see increases up to $10, a source told FN. Other footwear firms have also tinkered with price increases. Steve Madden Ltd. has also increased prices for select shoe styles, and the firm is also working to factories and suppliers on price concessions so it can keep increases to the consumer within a certain range. And over at Crocs Inc., CEO Andrew Rees said the company is being 'super strategic' on pricing, with some targeted increases. He also expects the industry 'to go up in terms of price' due to tariffs. The next big shopping event for footwear will be back-to-school, which starts as early as July. Hibbett is ready with a new website and app dedicated to seeking kids products, and its set up for shoppers to find the lastest fashion and footwear styles in an easy-to-navigate format. Best of WWD All the Retailers That Nike Left and Then Went Back Mikey Madison's Elegant Red Carpet Shoe Style [PHOTOS] Julia Fox's Sleekest and Boldest Shoe Looks Over the Years [Photos] Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Consumer confidence unexpectedly declines in June
Consumer confidence retreated in June after increasing the previous month amid President Trump's various tariff delays. The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 93 in June, below the 98.4 seen in May and the 99.8 economists had expected. The expectations index decreased to 69 in June from 73.6 in May when it saw its largest one-month increase since 2009. "Tariffs remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices," Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, said in a press release. "Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June." While the effective US tariff rate has come down significantly from its peak above 25% in early April, it remains significantly higher than where the year started. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the effective US tariff rate is currently 14.7%, the highest level since 1938. The cutoff date for the preliminary survey was June 18, which means some consumers could have considered the recent conflict between Iran and Israel in their responses. But Guichard noted this wasn't a top of mind concern for respondents as mentions of geopolitics and social unrest "remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers' views." In June, 29.2% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful," down from 31.1% in May. Meanwhile, 18.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down slightly from 18.4% in month prior. This pushed the difference between the two — a closely watched sentiment reading called the labor market differential — to just 11.1 percentage points in June. That marked the lowest gap since March 2021 when the job market was recovering from the pandemic. The declines come as job openings have fallen from the start of 2025 while weekly filings for unemployment claims are hovering near their highest level in eight months. "Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly," Guichard said. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
Business Times
24-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US consumer confidence drops on broad concerns about economy
[WASHINGTON] US consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in June on concerns about prospects for the economy, labour market and personal finances due to trade policy. The Conference Board's gauge of confidence decreased 5.4 points to 93, data showed Tuesday (Jun 24). The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A measure of consumer expectations for the next six months dropped 4.6 points to 69, while a gauge of present conditions fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The retreat in confidence erased nearly half of the prior month's rebound, underscoring lingering anxiety about the potential impacts on the economy from higher US import duties. While inflation over the past three months has been modest, some consumers have become more guarded about their spending. 'Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labour market,' Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement. The cutoff date for the Conference Board survey was June 18, five days after Israel launched a series of strikes on Iranian targets. References to geopolitics increased only slightly in write-in responses, according to the survey. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates in the year ahead increased to 57 per cent, the highest since October 2023, the Conference Board data showed. BLOOMBERG
