08-07-2025
Australian sheep flock to shrink further with no recovery forecast until 2027
Australia's sheep flock is shrinking because of the drought and is not expected to recover until at least 2027.
Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) said farmers in Victoria and South Australia had been forced to sell sheep as feed became scarce.
"We ask producers what the biggest impact is on their decision making and, overwhelmingly, it's the drought, especially in the southern states," MLA market information manager Steve Bignall said.
A recent survey by MLA and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) revealed farmers planned to decrease their female breeding sheep numbers by 9 per cent over the next 12 months.
"We did see an intention for producers to drop both ewe numbers going forward for 2026 and wether numbers," Mr Bignall said.
"Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria are driving that drop in ewe production."
Recovery of the flock is not expected until at least 2027.
"We had a drop in 2025, a slight drop [is forecast] in 2026, before in an increase in 2027 as seasonal conditions return to normal," Mr Bignall said.
The decline in sheep numbers is contributing to record prices at the saleyards.
A pen of heavy lambs sold for a national record of $435 a head in Bendigo in central Victoria on Monday, making it the fifth record broken nationally in the past six weeks.
It just pipped the previous high set in Griffith, New South Wales, last month.
Jenny Kelly from the National Livestock Reporting Service said the top pen of grain-fed lambs was from Swan Hill and the record created "a bit of excitement" among the crowd in Bendigo.
"Seven pens of lambs made over $400 in this market," Ms Kelly said.
"They were really impressive and sold very well."
Ms Kelly said the high lamb price was supply-driven, with fewer lambs available this winter.
The last of the autumn-born animals are moving through the yards, with up to six months until the spring-born lambs will be ready for market, increasing the desperation of abattoirs to fill orders.
Supply has also dwindled because of drought conditions in southern Australia, and strong demand from overseas markets.
"The spring run [of lambs] is going to be late because of the season and bad autumn, so processors have tough times ahead."
The MLA and AWI survey showed sentiment among sheep farmers was improving, despite the declining flock and challenging weather conditions.
"The low supply in winter drives prices up, but the levels that it has got to are extremely impressive," Mr Bignall said.
"Prices for sheep meat are very high and that is largely the reason that sentiment is strong for the sheep meat sector."
