Latest news with #Stocktwits
AllAfrica
02-07-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
Data platforms such as Stocktwits may hurt long-term forecasts
Since the beginning of the century, the number of satellites orbiting Earth has increased more than 800%, from less than 1,000 to more than 9,000. This profusion has had a number of strange and disturbing repercussions. One of them is that companies are selling data from satellite images of parking lots to financial analysts. Analysts then use this information to help gauge a store's foot traffic, compare a retailer to competitors and estimate its revenue. This is just one example of the new information, or 'alternative data', that is now available to analysts to help them make their predictions about future stock performance. In the past, analysts would make predictions based on firms' public financial statements. According to our research, the plethora of new sources of data has improved short-term predictions but worsened long-term analysis, which could have profound consequences. In a paper on alternative data's effect on financial forecasting, we counted more than 500 companies that sold alternative data in 2017, a number that ballooned from less than 50 in 1996. Today, the alternative data broker Datarade lists more than 3,000 alternative datasets for sale. In addition to satellite images, sources of new information include Google, credit card statistics and social media such as X or Stocktwits, a popular X-like platform where investors share ideas about the market. For instance, Stocktwits users share charts showing the evolution of the price of a given stock (e.g. Apple stock) and explanations of why the evolution predicts a price increase or decrease. Users also mention the launch of a new product by a firm and whether it makes them bullish or bearish about the firm's stock. Using data from the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System (I/B/E/S) and regression analyses, we measured the quality of 65 million equity analysts' forecasts from 1983 to 2017 by comparing analysts' predictions with the actual earnings per share of companies' stock. We found, as others had, that the availability of more data explains why stock analysts have become progressively better at making short-term projections. We went further, however, by asking how this alternative data affected long-term projections. And we found that over the same period that saw a rise in accuracy of short-term projections, there was a drop in validity of long-term forecasts. Because of its nature, alternative data – information about firms in the moment – is useful mostly for short-term forecasts. Longer-term analysis – from one to five years into the future – is a much more important judgment. Previous papers have proved the common-sense proposition that analysts have a limited amount of attention. If analysts have a large portfolio of firms to cover, for example, their scattered concentration begins to yield diminishing returns. We wanted to know whether the increased accuracy of short-term forecasts and declining accuracy of long-term predictions – which we had observed in our analysis of the I/B/E/S data – was due to a concomitant proliferation of alternative sources for financial information. To investigate this proposition, we analyzed all discussions of stocks on Stocktwits that took place between 2009 and 2017. As might be expected, certain stocks like Apple, Google or Walmart generated much more discussion than those of small companies that aren't even listed on the Nasdaq. We conjectured that analysts who followed stocks that were heavily discussed on the platform – and so, who were exposed to a lot of alternative data – would experience a larger decline in the quality of their long-term forecasts than analysts who followed stocks that were little discussed. And after controlling for factors such as firms' size, years in business and sales growth, that's exactly what we found. We inferred that because analysts had easy access to information for short-term analysis, they directed their energy there, which meant they had less attention for long-term forecasting. The consequences of this inundation of alternative data may be profound. When assessing a stock's value, investors must take into account both short- and long-term forecasts. If the quality of long-term forecasts deteriorates, there is a good chance that stock prices will not accurately reflect a firm's value. Moreover, a firm would like to see the value of its decisions reflected in the price of its stock. But if a firm's long-term decisions are incorrectly taken into account by analysts, it might be less willing to make investments that will only pay off years away. In the mining industry, for instance, it takes time to build a new mine. It's going to take maybe nine, 10 years for an investment to start producing cash flows. Companies might be less willing to make such investments if, say, their stocks may be undervalued because market participants have less accurate forecasts of these investments' impacts on firms' cash flows – the subject of another paper we are working on. The example of investment in carbon reduction is even more alarming. That kind of investment also tends to pay off in the long run, when global warming will be an even bigger issue. Firms may have less incentive to make the investment if the worth of that investment is not quickly reflected in their valuation. The results of our research suggest that it might be wise for financial firms to separate teams that research short-term results and those that make long-term forecasts. This would alleviate the problem of one person or team being flooded with data relevant to short-term forecasting and then also expected to research long-term results. Our findings are also noteworthy for investors looking for bargains: though there are downsides to poor long-term forecasting, it could present an opportunity for those able to identify undervalued firms. Thierry Foucault is a professor of finance at the HEC Paris Business School . This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Time Business News
26-06-2025
- Business
- Time Business News
The Rising Influence of Visual Media on Financial Journalism and Market Sentiment
In today's fast-paced digital landscape, a single image can shape investor confidence and market trends as decisively as a headline or economic report. Visual media—especially video thumbnails and social media imagery—is emerging as a subtle yet potent driver of investor behavior. Once reserved for entertainment and product ads, engaging visual design now plays a pivotal role in financial journalism, altering perceptions, shaping narratives, and even influencing capital flows. This article explores the evolving intersection of visual storytelling and financial information, showcasing its impact on market sentiment and investor psychology. A study examining over 16,000 YouTube video covers found that thumbnails with strong emotional cues—whether positive or negative—significantly increased viewership, while sensational captions had the opposite effect. Applied to finance, this means a compelling thumbnail can determine whether an investor watches a market analysis video or scrolls past it. Visual appeal not only boosts reach but can guide audience interpretation before a single word is spoken. Visual design principles also extend into social media. During the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers showed that advisory-style thumbnails were perceived as more credible and calming, while data-visualization-heavy images induced higher perceived risk. Similar effects are at play in financial markets: the imagery accompanying a report on inflation, for instance, can subtly influence whether readers perceive the situation as concerning or manageable. Financial analysts have long leaned on textual sentiment, but recent research is expanding this to images. A forthcoming Journal of Financial Economics study uses machine learning to assess investor sentiment from news photos, linking these visuals to market fluctuations. Likewise, GIF-based sentiment analysis—tracking stock-related GIFs on Stocktwits—has shown that visual mood markers correlate with same-day returns and trading imbalances. These findings move imagery from passive backdrop to active data, influencing analytics-driven sentiment models. Corporate and media brands increasingly rely on optimized thumbnails. One study of brand videos across industries showed that thumbnails mixing clear visual hierarchy—color contrast, recognizable objects—with just the right complexity elevated viewer engagement. The implication for financial journalism is clear: thumbnails aren't afterthoughts—they are engagement tools, carefully designed and researched. For analysts and investors keen on dissecting the role of visual media during financial events, tools like a reliable thumbnail grabber provide an easy way to save and study the exact imagery used in influential videos. This approach aids in understanding how visual cues contribute to shaping investor sentiment and market behavior. The impact of visual content on actual price behavior is gaining empirical support. A January 2025 finance study found that spikes in YouTube video views are a strong predictor of retail investor interest—and correlate with short-term increases in stock returns—particularly for smaller firms. Effectively, visuals serve as a proxy for investor attention, shaping capital flows, and sometimes fueling speculative bubbles. This dynamic echoes historical findings: just as investor mood measured via Twitter predicted the Dow Jones in 2010, modern platforms amplify visuals' ability to sway group sentiment and markets. Psychologically, images tend to be more memorable and attention-grabbing than text. Known as the 'picture superiority effect,' this cognitive bias makes visuals more likely to influence recall and interpretation . When financial messages are communicated visually—whether through thumbnails, charts, or imagery—they tap into fast, instinctive processes that drive emotional decision-making. Richard Peterson, a pioneer in behavioral finance, has stressed the role of media-driven sentiment in asset pricing. His work demonstrates that mood and imagery embedded in financial narratives can sway investor behavior independent of fundamentals. However, imagery's power isn't without risk. Research on earnings announcements with visuals suggests that while they provoke stronger initial market reactions, these gains are often reversed by 1.9% post-announcement. The initial visual-fueled euphoria or fear can lead to overreaction—deviations from rational pricing that revert once investors digest the full context. This suggests visuals should be treated cautiously in financial reporting—valuable for capturing engagement, but double-edged when fueling volatility. Insights from media psychology and digital marketing point to a few guiding principles: Clarity and relevance: Thumbnails should cleanly convey underlying concepts—e.g. inflation trends, earnings graphs—without clutter. Emotional resonance—subtlety wins: Emotional framing can engage without misleading. Faces expressing concern can signal caution; data visuals can highlight trends thoughtfully. Consistency and credibility: Visual branding builds trust. Repeated use of consistent styles helps audiences quickly associate visuals with reliability. Avoid clickbait baiting: Research shows deceptive visuals may boost short-term clicks but damage long-term trust. As visual analytics enter quantitative finance, we foresee two emerging shifts: Visual-algorithmic integration: Machine learning models that incorporate thumbnails, charts, and graphs as inputs will gain precision—turning sight into signals. Machine learning models that incorporate thumbnails, charts, and graphs as inputs will gain precision—turning sight into signals. Investor literacy as defense: Visual media literacy will become a hedge tool. As investors recognize visual framing, their capacity to decode bias may reduce susceptibility to overreaction. Financial journalism is undergoing a renaissance—no longer confined to numbers and prose, it now speaks visually. In a world where attention is scarce and data overwhelming, emotionally resonant, well-designed images serve as guides and influencers. Yet with great power comes responsibility. Visuals can trigger sentiment-driven overvaluation or fear; they can mislead or magnify real risks. High-caliber financial outlets must therefore design visuals with integrity, clarity, and analytical transparency. In essence, the visual lens on finance demands both mindfulness and innovation. By integrating visual design into reporting strategies—with ethical guardrails and strategic intent—journalists and platforms can harness imagery not as a gimmick, but as a tool for clarity, trust, and smarter investor behavior. TIME BUSINESS NEWS
Forbes
17-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Cryptocurrency Prices Decline As Market Uncertainty Fuels Risk-Off Trading
Major cryptocurrencies have taken a hit lately. getty Major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether and solana's SOL all depreciated on Tuesday, June 17 as uncertainty in the broader markets motivated investors to take part in risk-off trading and profit taking. Stocks also suffered that day, with benchmark indices like the S&P 500 index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite all falling in value, according to data from Google Finance. When explaining these latest market developments, analysts pointed to rising tensions in the Middle East and expectations that members of the Federal Open Market Committee would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged when their latest policy meeting concluded on Wednesday, June 18. One analyst who offered his perspective on this situation was Tom Bruni, editor-in-chief & VP of community at Stocktwits, who stated via email that 'With factors like the Iran-Israel conflict escalating and the Fed meeting tomorrow contributing to market uncertainty, we're seeing a general sentiment on Stocktwits that investors are taking profits and reevaluating their positions at this natural inflection point.' 'Our users are active investors who are involved in the market's leading stocks, so when they start to become more fearful (as the Stocktwits Sentiment Index is showing currently), it typically reflects a loss of short-term momentum in names like Palantir, Nvidia, and other high-growth names they're trading,' he added. "Right now, we're seeing them take a more defensive posture as they await further clarity on the U.S.'s involvement in the Middle East and how it might impact our economy and markets. We're seeing a similar de-risking behavior in the crypto market, with Bitcoin pulling back from its all-time highs, and higher-risk altcoins like Ethereum falling further.' Joe DiPasquale, CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund manager BitBull Capital, also weighed in, providing input via email. 'The pullback in risk assets today appears to be driven by a mix of geopolitical jitters and market positioning. The escalation in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has likely amplified risk-off sentiment, pushing investors toward safer assets amid uncertainty," he specified. 'Even without a direct market shock, the threat of a broader regional conflict adds a layer of headline risk that markets are quick to price in,' the analyst emphasized. 'At the same time, after strong recent gains across both crypto and equities, some investors are likely taking profits. The S&P recently hit fresh highs, and with the Fed still in a holding pattern and inflation readings mixed, it's not surprising to see some rotation out of riskier positions,' he added. 'This kind of retreat is as much about psychology—locking in gains ahead of potential volatility—as it is about fundamentals,' noted DiPasquale. The TikTok influencer who goes by Wendy O also offered her point of view, focusing on geopolitical developments and investor behavior. 'I agree that the Israel-Iran conflict is causing a lot of uncertainty in the market,' she stated. 'According to The Block, 'Bitcoin ETFs log $1.8 billion over six-day inflow streak,' indicating folks are buying Bitcoin,' said Wendy O, referring to an article published earlier today. 'This would make sense, as we recently saw gold reach another all-time high, and the Silver chart is showing strength. Both assets are in high demand during times of geopolitical uncertainty,' she noted. 'Even though folks are buying the Bitcoin spot ETFs we have seen about $500 Million in liquidation over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass, $435M in long and $74M in shorts. It seems that there is just market uncertainty until we get an update from our world leaders,' the influencer concluded. Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, also chimed in, offering his views on what the latest market developments mean for investors and the broader crypto industry. 'Markets are reacting to heightened geopolitical tensions, which tend to trigger risk-off behavior,' he stated. 'Even when price action looks shaky, it's important to remember that the underlying infrastructure and institutional momentum haven't skipped a beat. That's why, while the Nasdaq is down 1%, Bitcoin is only down 2%,' Cahill noted. 'People are waking up to the fact that digital assets can be a haven during these times,' he stated. The market observer offered further clarity on what he meant. 'In acute geopolitical shocks, investors typically turn to assets such as cash or treasuries, not emerging assets,' said Cahill. 'But over longer timeframes, we can expect digital assets to function as a hedge against monetary debasement and economic downturns.' 'So, in short, crypto can definitely act as a safe haven, but not necessarily in the timeline most people expect,' he concluded.
Forbes
13-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Ether Prices Plunge Almost 15% As Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Profit Taking
Ether prices took a tumble recently, declining close to 15% in under 48 hours as the latest developments between Iran and Israel helped create widespread profit taking in risk assets. The world's second-largest digital currency by total market value fell to roughly $2,450.00 late last night, after rising close to $2,875.00 the day before, according to Coinbase data from TradingView. This materialized at a time when major stock market indices the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both down at least 1% for the day at the time of this writing, according to Google Finance. 'Nothing has fundamentally changed with Ethereum over the last few days, so we must rely on technicals and trader behavior to explain this pullback,' Tom Bruni, editor-in-chief & VP of community at Stocktwits, stated via email. 'Following a strong run for risk assets, such as equities and cryptocurrencies, over the last ten weeks, we're seeing the early signs of investors and traders taking profits," he continued. 'New risks emerging from the Middle East have created more uncertainty in the market, making market participants less willing to hold risk assets in their portfolios over the weekend and into next week,' stated Bruni. 'We're seeing significant chatter from Stocktwits users who are taking profits or hedging their portfolios after such a strong run,' he said. 'For now, Ethereum is simply trading in tandem with other risk assets. And because it's an altcoin, it sits further down the risk spectrum than Bitcoin, which is why it's fallen more sharply. One can compare this relationship to that of small-caps vs. large-caps in the equity market,' the analyst emphasized. Patrick Liou, associate director of institutional sales for Gemini, also weighed in, offering a similar take on the situation. 'ETH is seeing a pullback in prices as a result of Israel conducting a wide scale military operation on Iran with 14 days of planned operations, according to senior Israeli military officials,' he wrote through email. 'Iran has vowed to retaliate to the latest strikes, leading to escalating geopolitical tensions across the globe and a broad decline across risk assets,' said Liou. 'The ETH outperformance had coincided with a decline for bitcoin dominance from 65.5% to 62%, but most of that move has now retraced as a result of the events in the Middle East,' he stated. Julio Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, also chimed in, providing hard evidence of the profit taking in ether, providing a visualization of this data in the chart below: 'It seems most of ETH's price decline has come from traders taking profits after the increase towards ~$2.8K (see black triangles in the chart),' he stated via Telegram. It is worth noting that in the runup to the recent price high, many traders opened long positions, which are illustrated by the blue circles. When explaining why traders decided to sell their ether, Moreno specified that 'The reason traders took profits was the market turmoil caused by the tensions in the Middle East.' While ether prices have taken a hit lately, the overall outlook is certainly positive, according to Bruni. He spoke to this via email, stating that "On a positive note, this pullback is not a dealbreaker for the larger trend at play." 'Traders will want to see the price of Ethereum stay above their May lows, near 2,300, to maintain the positive medium-term momentum that has developed since April,' said Bruni. 'Sentiment on Cryptotwits is still in 'extremely bullish' territory, and message volumes are 'high,' signaling that retail investors and traders are sticking with Ethereum despite this pullback,' he added.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oklo, Chewy earnings, steel tariffs: Trending Tickers
Nuclear reactor developer Oklo (OKLO) shares surge to record highs after striking a deal with the US Air Force to provide power to Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska by the end of the decade. Online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) may have topped first quarter earnings and revenue estimates, but its stock is falling Wednesday after missing guidance forecasts. Catch Yahoo Finance's full interview with Chewy CEO Sumit Singh. Shares of American steel manufacturer Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) slip further ahead of the market close as US and Mexico trade officials reported nearly a deal on steel import tariffs. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Let's take a look at some of the trending tickers we're watching. Shares of Oklo skyrocketing today, while Chewy and Cleveland Cliffs are falling. Let's start by looking at Oklo seeing record-breaking highs today after the announcement of an energy deal with the Air Force. The nuclear power provider being selected to power Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska following a close to two-year delay by the company. Um, this is pretty provisional here that is being announced on the part of this. Basically, it is the intended awardee of this contract. And as I like to remind folks, whenever we talk about Oklo or any of these small modular reactor companies within nuclear, um, these things are not happening tomorrow, they're not happening next year. I believe Oklo is targeting developing its first reactor and having it up and running by the end of the decade. So, and probably closer to the end than we are right now. Exactly. A long-term bet. It was interesting to think about who's buying names like Oklo because I had Tom Bruni from Stocktwits. I was talking to Tom recently and obviously kind of, you know, relatively younger group of folks on that platform. And I did ask Tom, what's interesting to your folks right now in Stocktwits? What's what are they curious about? What are they excited about? What are the themes and trends? And he immediately rattled off Tom said, it's AI, it's crypto, and the kids like nuclear. Yeah. Well, there's been a huge, you know, just like in crypto, there has been a big regulatory shift with this administration. There's been a big shift on nuclear. Although it was already brewing before the Trump administration came in. But now there's a more explicit push in the direction of nuclear. Now, you have the players like Oklo, like NuScale, that are developing these smaller reactors. And then you have the bigger players. I mean, Talen Energy extended um its deal with Amazon or expanded its deal with Amazon today. So you have the establishment players like Talen, like a Constellation Energy, that are also working with big database providers. So there are a couple of different facets to it. There's the stuff that is actually working now or that are nuclear reactors that have been operating. And then there's the new models and when those new models get up and running, we'll see. Yeah. Yeah. Chewy, let's talk about that name too. That is seeing share prices fall despite beating earnings first quarter estimates. Pet supply company announcing an 8% increase in sales year over year and a 3 cent higher adjusted EPS. Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi did speak to Chewy CEO Sumit Singh about the company's first quarter and his expectations for the next quarter. You know, the momentum that we've carried out of Q1 actually has continued. In fact, you know, it's just the shape of the curve. So the first quarter, you know, at 6.2% EBITDA margins, you know, for the first time company crossed the 6% mark. So we're very very happy about, very proud about that. And then broadly, you know, we've guided to a midpoint of, you know, roughly 5.5% EBITDA margins for this year. That would put us at about a 70 basis point, 75 basis point expansion from a year-over-year perspective. Uh so under pressure today, reports are some of the issues here front and center for investors, gross margin and free cash flow missing expectations. They did reiterate annual sales targets. What did the Bulls say on a day like this? Well, City which has a buy on this one, I saw them cited saying the stock move into the print. They did know in their opinion, create kind of a tough setup perhaps. Uh they argue the multi-year growth and margin expansion story remains compelling to their point. The stock has enjoyed a strong run, even now, you're still up around 20% this year. You're up around 80% over the past 12 months. And most analysts still do see better times ahead. Yeah. Yeah. I was looking at the forward price earnings ratio of this one. It's 74, which sounds pretty eye-watering, especially when you compare it with something like 32 for Petco. Of course, Petco just came out and disappointed with its numbers recently. So I guess investors are just trying to weigh in this space, which thing is more attractive. Tough setup, says City. Yeah. Yes, yes. Ending off with Cleveland Cliffs, which is seeing its shares fall after a deal between the US and Mexico on steel import tariffs looks close reportedly. The deal would remove a 50% tariff that the Trump administration put on steel up to a specific volume determined by historical trade volumes data. With Trump steel tariffs announcement being made to promote domestic steel, that walk back could spur more import competition in the steel industry. Um, so we are seeing Cleveland Cliffs get take a hit. We're seeing Nucor take a hit. We're taking Steel Dynamics and Commercial Metals. All of them are are um are lower. And I guess there are different reactions depending on what kind of steel, whether they make raw steel or flat steel or rolled steel um or finished steel products. There's sort of different implications across the sector. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, Bloomberg is the one who had this report. An agreement they say has not been finalized. I do see analysts cited as kind of weighing in, trying to game out what what could be some effects here. Some saying flat steel would be hit hardest and companies that could be affected. Uh most they say, Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Nucor and Commercial Metals among others. Mhm. Sign in to access your portfolio
