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The Diplomat
3 days ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
How Iran Sees the China-US Trade War
As the expiration date for the truce in the trade war between the United States and China approaches, policymakers in Tehran see both immediate risks and potential long-term opportunities for the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is demonstrated in analysis produced by the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations (SCFR), an entity tasked with advising Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on diplomatic affairs. Although not a decision-making body, the SCFR can indicate the direction of Iranian policymaking, due to its proximity to Khamenei's office and the involvement of key loyalists to the Supreme Leader, including former presidential contender Saeed Jalili. In its assessments of the China-U.S. trade war, the SCFR reveals how the Islamic Republic sees the rift between Washington and Beijing, while having little ability to influence its outcome. Amid international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, Iran has expanded its engagement with China. In recent years, China emerged as a critical economic partner for Iran – receiving up to 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, according to some reports. While the United States has sought to curtail these trade links, evasive shipping practices, avoidance of dollar transactions, and the use of 'teapot' refineries have enabled Iran and China to bypass sanctions. This has offered the Islamic Republic a crucial economic lifeline. Their partnership was formalized under a broader 25-year cooperation agreement between Tehran and Beijing signed in 2021. Outside of the energy sector, Iran's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative has facilitated Chinese infrastructure and utilities investment. In the wake of conflict between Iran and Israel, speculation has also emerged that Iran could bolster its security ties to China, especially amid military setbacks and apparent frustrations with Russia. The U.S. has sought to counter Iran's movement toward China, especially under the Trump administration, as a means of enhancing leverage over the Islamic Republic. During the past several months, Washington has moved to sanction entities involved in transporting and refining Iranian oil for the Chinese market. In the short term, upholding the status quo between the U.S. and China would be in Iran's interest, either by Beijing and Washington maintaining the interim tariff reduction deal or reaching a more permanent settlement. According to SCFR analysis, a reinvigorated China-U.S. trade war could harm Iran's economic lifeline, by reducing China's demand for production inputs like oil. Given its dependence on the Chinese market, this would have significant ramifications for Iran's already weak economy. It would also intensify inflation and weaken Iranian foreign currency reserves, both of which have been recurrent issues for the Islamic Republic's monetary system. Compounding these factors, diminished exports to China would strengthen sanctions enforcement by the West, which the Islamic Republic has failed to significantly alleviate via diplomatic means. As Iran seeks to regain its footing ahead of renewed competition with Israel, these pressures could undermine efforts to curb domestic dissent and replenish its military forces, leading to wider strategic challenges. Iran also sees opportunity in the China-U.S. trade war, as a potential disruption to the existing international order. In particular, the potential long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar could support Iran's strategic interests. As noted by one SCFR publication, reducing the dollar's dominance as the world reserve currency would diminish the efficacy of sanctions and relative U.S. economic power. This would dovetail with efforts by the Islamic Republic to support other global 'de-dollarization' initiatives, including the formation of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization bank and the expansion of the BRICS New Development Bank. Nevertheless, the SCFR may be overly optimistic on the prospects of de-dollarization, as a clear alternative has yet to emerge. Additionally, the SCFR claims that China could seek to develop new export markets in the Middle East, including Iran, necessitating a stronger economic and diplomatic push in the region. This would be to Iran's advantage, as it could entail further Chinese investment and non-oil trade, both of which the Islamic Republic has consistently pursued. That said, Chinese direct investment in Iran has been limited thus far. It is also to China's advantage that Iran is economically weak and isolated, as it enables the import of Iranian oil at a significant discount. Despite limited influence over the situation, the SCFR asserts that the China-U.S. trade war must be 'optimally utilized' to Iran's advantage. In particular, it identifies 'global polarization' and economic uncertainty as factors that could create opportunities for deepening trade relations with other developing states. Specifically, Brazil and India are highlighted as potential import partners, with the potential to reduce Iran's dependence upon any single patron. However, it is unlikely that either could match China's energy demand. Furthermore, much of Iran's success in diversifying commercial relations has come through states such as Belarus and Serbia, which are unlikely to import Iranian oil in significant amounts, despite offering certain opportunities. Overall, the SCFR's assessment reflects a lack of options for the Islamic Republic to proactively shape the situation to its advantage. This further indicates that the status quo may be Tehran's preferred outcome, for the time being. In sum, the SCFR's perspective on the China-U.S. trade war reveals a reactive posture. This is marked by an effort to preserve the Islamic Republic's current advantages while seeking new openings amid global economic shifts, primarily designed to erode and challenge U.S. influence. Still, Iran's ability to capitalize on these developments remains constrained by structural weaknesses, international isolation, and its growing dependence on its energy exports to China. As such, Tehran's strategic calculus ultimately hinges on maintaining regime resilience, while seeking space to balance and maneuver within broader great power competition.
Ya Libnan
13-05-2025
- Business
- Ya Libnan
Trump calls Iran the ‘most destructive force,' vows it won't get nuclear weapon
The United Nation's atomic watchdog confirmed in 2019 that Iran continues to produce uranium metal, which can be used in the production of a nuclear bomb in a move that further complicates the possibility of reviving a landmark 2015 deal with world powers on the Iranian nuclear program. On July 17, 2022 Kamal Kharazi, a senior aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and who heads Khamenei's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations said t 'it is no secret that we have the technical capabilities to manufacture a nuclear bomb, but we have not decided to do so.' RIYADH – U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called Iran the 'most destructive force' in the Middle East, blaming Tehran for instability across the region and warning that the United States will never allow it to obtain a nuclear weapon. Offering what he described as both a final warning and a potential opening for diplomacy, Trump said Iran has a choice between continuing its 'chaos and terror' or embracing a path toward peace. Tehran has repeatedly denied accusations of fomenting Middle East instability. Trump said he was willing to strike a new deal with the Islamic Republic but only if its leaders changed course. 'I want to make a deal with Iran,' he said. 'But if Iran's leadership rejects this olive branch…, we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure.' Speaking at an investment summit in the Saudi capital Riyadh, Trump warned that 'Iran will never have a nuclear weapon', and said his offer for a deal won't last forever. Trump also drew a stark contrast between what he called the 'constructive vision' of Saudi Arabia and the 'collapse and suffering' he said had been caused by Iranian leaders. 'There could be no sharper contrast with the path you have pursued on the Arabian Peninsula than the disaster unfolding right across in the Gulf of Iran,' Trump added. (Reuters)
Qatar Tribune
11-05-2025
- Politics
- Qatar Tribune
Middle East is at a critical juncture requiring comprehensive cooperation: Iranian FM
DOHA: Iranian Foreign Minister HE Abbas Araghchi has said that the Middle East is undergoing a delicate phase that necessitates enhanced understanding and comprehensive cooperation among its nations. Speaking at the opening session of the fourth Arab-Iranian Dialogue Conference, hosted in Doha under the theme 'Strong Relations and Mutual Benefits', Araghchi emphasized Iran's commitment to dialogue as a strategic necessity for addressing challenges and fostering regional stability. The event, organized by Al Jazeera Centre for Studies in collaboration with Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, gathered officials, diplomats, and experts from various countries. He highlighted the deep-rooted historical and cultural ties between Iran and the Arab world, underscoring the importance of strengthening collaboration and overcoming divisions to ensure security and development in the region. Regarding Iran's nuclear program, he reaffirmed that his country has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons, stating that the use of such weapons is religiously prohibited and has no place in Iran's defensive doctrine. However, he asserted Iran's right to develop its peaceful nuclear program, including uranium enrichment. He also announced that the fourth round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States would take place soon, expressing optimism that a fair and balanced nuclear agreement remains achievable, provided that other parties abandon unrealistic demands. On the Palestinian issue, he stressed that Palestine remains the central cause for the Islamic world and his country cannot remain silent regarding the daily crimes and massacres being perpetrated against the Palestinian people, especially in the Gaza Strip. He considered the Israeli entity to represent the greatest threat to regional security. He pointed to the serious repercussions of the Israeli occupation's policies of forced displacement and systematic killing, calling on Islamic countries to shoulder their responsibilities in confronting these policies and supporting the Palestinian people in their pursuit of their legitimate rights. Addressing the Iranian-Gulf relations, the Iranian Foreign Minister welcomed positive developments over the past year, including a joint meeting between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council - the first in four decades - which he described as an important step toward building trust and regional partnership. He called for greater economic and trade cooperation among the countries of the region in sectors such as energy, transportation, and technology, asserting that Iran is open to any initiative fostering regional economic integration based on mutual benefits. He emphasized the role of cultural and scientific diplomacy in fostering genuine understanding between peoples, arguing that civilizational rapprochement forms a strong foundation for long-term political and economic partnerships. Concluding his remarks, the Iranian foreign minister reiterated his country's call for collective efforts to stabilize the region. He added that Iran extends its hand to all parties to build a shared future and partner in peace, not adversaries in conflict, stressing that dialogue and understanding are the only paths to security and sustainable development.
The National
01-05-2025
- Business
- The National
Iran planning move from 'fantasy to reality' through soft power and deeper Gulf ties
Kamal Kharazi, Iran's former foreign minister and one of its most influential policy figures, said on Thursday that Tehran is pushing for a shift towards soft power and deeper dialogue with the Arab Gulf states. In an unorthodox speech at a conference in Tehran published by state media, Mr Kharazi, who now heads Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stressed that Iran 'is a strong, self-reliant nation. No one can invade us. Our strength is rooted in the people.' However, he added that this strength must now be matched with 'soft power' to build 'healthy relations with other nations, particularly amid regional geopolitical shifts and Israeli expansionism'. Neighbouring countries have recently made efforts to thaw relations with Tehran, urging it to stop interfering in the region's internal affairs. Despite lingering concerns over Iran's nuclear programme, several Gulf governments have advocated co-ordination with Tehran rather than confrontation, and argued for stronger economic ties. Mr Kharazi reiterated Iran's commitment to 'soft power as a strategic approach – focusing on economic co-operation and regional diplomacy,' echoing long-standing calls from Gulf countries. His comments come at a time when Iran is feeling the strain: its proxy groups across the Middle East have suffered major setbacks, and the country remains under intense US pressure. Washington's ' maximum pressure ' campaign has been coupled with nuclear talks and promises of economic relief if a deal is struck, at time when the country's economy is in ruins. A new language Several Iranian experts have said that policymakers in Tehran are debating whether the country should maintain its strategy of supporting non-state actors, rather than adopting a more realistic strategy in a rapidly changing Middle East. But the biggest obstacle to such a shift is the ultra-conservative camp, which has steered Iran's regional strategies for decades and has recently dragged them into once-unthinkable setbacks. For the Gulf states, any agreement with Iran hinges on verifiable guarantees that its nuclear programme is peaceful, and on Iran halting its support for non-state actors in the region. 'There is now a need for serious dialogue between Iran and Gulf states,' Mr Kharazi said at the conference in Tehran. 'We must craft initiatives and bring others to the table, investing in public and informal diplomacy, and speaking a new language,' he said. 'Iran should draw on its cultural and poetic heritage to communicate more effectively and project a refined image globally.' He called for a strategic balance between Islamic values, Iranian identity, and Shia mysticism, arguing that such a blend could reshape the region's and the world's view of Iran. 'We need analysts who can forecast based on reality – not fantasy,' he added, calling on think tanks to offer actionable insight. Still a powerful voice in Iranian foreign policy circles, Mr Kharazi announced an Iran–Arab dialogue summit in Tehran involving regional experts and officials. 'This is a key moment to project a new strategic image of Iran,' he said. He concluded by stressing that Iran's co-operation with Gulf states must extend beyond economics to include energy, science and technology, cultural heritage and even political and military collaboration. 'The region's future depends on this co-operation – and Iran is ready.'
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Iran's 'master negotiator' tasked with averting war
By Parisa Hafezi DUBAI (Reuters) - Abbas Araqchi, Iran's seasoned top diplomat, faces one of his most delicate challenges ever this weekend as he prepares to lead talks with the U.S. to secure a new nuclear deal and avert a military strike against the Islamic Republic. His country's clerical establishment is approaching the talks in Oman warily, sceptical of progress and suspicious of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to bomb if no deal is reached. Whether the talks are direct, as Trump says they will be, or indirect, as Tehran insists, Araqchi will be squaring off with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, a real estate magnate without previous experience in foreign policy - let alone of the thorny, long-running dispute over Iran's nuclear ambitions. The stakes could hardly be higher for Araqchi, the scion of an Isfahan bazaar family who joined Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution as a teenager and fought in the 1980s Iran-Iraq war before embarking on a dazzling diplomatic career. Although there is little optimism in Tehran that the talks will go far, the political establishment appears confident in Araqchi's ability to play Iran's hand with deftness and guile. "Araqchi is the right person in the right position at the right time," said Iran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz, who is also a political insider. "He is one of the most powerful foreign ministers in the Islamic Republic's history, with full authority from the supreme leader and a deep knowledge about all aspects of the nuclear issue." Picked as foreign minister last year by new President Masoud Pezeshkian, the mild-mannered Araqchi cultivated a reputation as a master of tough negotiations when playing a key role in talks that led to a nuclear agreement in 2015. Western diplomats involved in the talks between Iran and six world powers described him as "serious, technically knowledgeable and a straightforward diplomat". The agreement, which traded sanctions relief for curbs on Iran's uranium enrichment programme, was torn up by Trump in 2018 during his first White House term and the crippling sanctions were reimposed. Araqchi was also the point man for ultimately unsuccessful indirect talks meant to resurrect the deal during U.S. President Joe Biden's 2021-25 administration, but was replaced with an anti-Western hardliner. Soon afterwards, Araqchi was named secretary of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations - a key body advising Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pulling him into the inner orbit of the country's ultimate authority. AN INSIDER Born in Tehran in 1962 to a wealthy religious merchant family, Araqchi was only 17 when the Islamic Revolution washed over Iran and filled many of its youth with radical fervour. Inspired by the ousting of the U.S.-backed Shah's dynastic regime and the promise of a new future, he enlisted in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's military vanguard, to fight in the bloody attrition of the 1980-88 war with Iraq. After the conflict ended he joined Iran's foreign ministry in 1989 and served as ambassador in Finland from 1999-2003 and Japan from 2007-11 before becoming Foreign Ministry spokesman in 2013. He took a doctorate in politics from the University of Kent in Britain and was appointed deputy foreign minister in 2013. A devout Muslim who staunchly believes in the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, Araqchi has served under presidents whose instincts have ranged from pragmatic to hardline. Throughout his tenure, Iran's relationship with the wider world has been partly defined by its nuclear programme - which it says is only for civilian purposes but many Western countries maintain is aimed at developing the means to build atomic bombs. His reputation in Tehran may shield him from internal criticism if Iran is forced to concede on key issues in the talks with the United States. Despite being a political insider with close ties to Khamenei, Araqchi has kept himself distant from "political frays and infighting" between factions, according to a senior Iranian official. "He has good relations with the supreme leader, the Revolutionary Guards and all political factions in Iran," the official said. Araqchi has two sons and a daughter from his first marriage and a daughter from his second one. (Reporting and writing by Parisa Hafezi; editing by Angus McDowall and Mark Heinrich)
