Latest news with #SumitRitolia
Mint
22-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Israel-Iran conflict effect? India ramps up crude oil imports from Russia, US in June 2025
India has increased its crude oil purchases from Russia and the United States in June 2025, as the import volumes from the two nations exceed the combined volumes from Middle Eastern suppliers amid the market volatility due to the Israel-Iran conflict, reported the news agency PTI. India's primary suppliers for crude oil in the Middle East are nations like Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This comes amid US President Donald Trump's announcement that America had carried out coordinated airstrikes targeting three nuclear facilities in Iran. Indian refiners are expected to import 2 million to 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in June 2025, marking the highest level of russian oil imports in the last two years, according to the agency report citing Kpler data. The crude oil imports from Russia were at 1.96 million barrels per day in May 2025. This expected hike in volumes is also set to beat the total volumes bought from Gulf nations like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, as per the report. On the crude imports on the US front, Indian refiners' crude oil imports from the United States' also jumped to 4,39,000 barrels per day in June 2025, compared to their 2,80,000 barrels per day levels in the previous month. The data report also showed how the full-month projects from crude oil imports from the Middle East into India stood at 2 million barrels per day, lower than the May 2025 levels, according to the agency report. India started importing cheaper oil from Russia soon after the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 due to the higher discounted rates post the economic sanctions from the United States. India buys nearly 5.1 million barrels of crude oil, which is then refined to be converted into fossil fuels like petrol and diesel However, so far in the Israel-Iran conflict, there have been no crude oil supply cuts or disruptions in the oil trade, which can potentially drive up oil prices around the world. 'While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days,' Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, told the news agency. 'Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving,' he said. The global situation of uncertainty caused by the raging Israel-Iran war now risks Tehran retaliating by closing the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important trade passage for global crude oil as the strait links the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Persian Gulf. According to multiple media reports, the Strait of Hormuz handles nearly a quarter of the world's oil trade. Hence, any potential move to close the passage will result in the escalation of the already raging war. Experts cited in media reports indicate that if there is an oil supply disruption, crude prices can jump to $400 per barrel. 'Yet, Kpler analysis assigns a very low probability to a full blockade, citing strong disincentives for Iran,' Ritolia told the news agency. The route serves as a major route for world oil and LNG export transit, and agency reports show that India imports nearly 40 per cent of all its crude oil and nearly 50 per cent of its gas imports from the Strait of Hormuz, which links to many Gulf nations. The Kpler data cited in the agency report also estimates that in case any disruption happens, it will result in 24 to 48 hours of isolation before major nations like the US step in to counter the retaliation. Meanwhile, the agency also highlighted that Russian oil imports are detached from Hormuz and are imported via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or the Pacific Ocean. 'If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India may pivot harder toward the US, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit at higher freight costs,' said the expert cited in the agency report. As of 19 June 2025, Russian crude oil accounted for 35 per cent of India's total crude imports. The Indian refiners are watching the geopolitical landscape and are likely to adjust procurement strategies to prioritise energy security, supply stability, and commercial viability if risks in the Middle East escalate, according to the agency report.
Time of India
22-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
‘Highest in two years': India increases oil imports from Russia, US amidst Iran-Israel war; why it's about strategic positioning, not panic
Indian refiners are expected to purchase 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June, reaching a two-year peak. (AI image) Iran-Israel conflict impact: India has increased its Russian oil procurement in June, with import volumes surpassing the combined purchases from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amidst market instability following Israel's significant offensive against Iran. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, acquired approximately 5.1 million barrels of crude oil internationally, which refineries process into products such as petrol and diesel. According to preliminary analysis by global trade analytics firm Kpler quoted in a PTI report, Indian refiners are expected to purchase 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June, reaching a two-year peak and exceeding the total quantities acquired from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. India's Shift To Russia, US Oil Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India shifted its oil procurement strategy significantly. The nation, which historically relied on Middle Eastern supplies, began substantial Russian oil imports due to attractive discounts resulting from Western sanctions and European boycotts. Russian oil imports to India measured 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May. American oil shipments to India increased to 439,000 bpd in June, significantly higher than the 280,000 bpd acquired in the preceding month. Kpler's projections indicate Middle Eastern imports for the complete month will approximate 2 million bpd, showing a reduction from the previous month's acquisitions. India's shift has been substantial, with Russian oil imports rising dramatically from under 1 per cent to approximately 40-44 per cent of India's total crude purchases within a brief timeframe. Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler noted the substantial changes in India's import approach over the past two oil varieties (Urals, ESPO, Sokol) operate independently of Hormuz, utilising alternative routes via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or Pacific Ocean. Indian refineries have developed adaptable refining and payment systems, whilst enhancing operations for diverse crude options. Alternative sources from the US, West Africa, and Latin America, despite higher costs, present increasingly feasible alternatives. Iran-Israel war : Growing Middle East Tensions & India Impact Currently, oil supply chains remain stable despite Middle Eastern tensions. "While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Ritolia was quoted as saying. "Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving." The current MEG availability is expected to become more constrained shortly, which could necessitate India to reconsider its procurement approach. The Strait of Hormuz, positioned between Iran's northern border and the southern territories of Oman and the United Arab Emirates, functions as the primary channel for petroleum exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. The waterway also accommodates substantial liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation, particularly from Qatar. With increasing military tensions between Israel and Iran, the latter has indicated possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates one-fifth of global oil movement and significant LNG exports. Also Read | Iran-Israel conflict: India keeping tab on Chabahar Port, International North-South Transport Corridor; why it's important India's dependence on this maritime route is substantial, with 40 per cent of its oil imports and half of its gas requirements passing through this narrow passage. Kpler reports that apprehensions regarding potential Strait of Hormuz closure have grown following Israel's offensive actions targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Iranian hardline elements have suggested closure, and state media outlets predict oil prices could reach $400 per barrel. "Yet, Kpler analysis assigns a very low probability to a full blockade, citing strong disincentives for Iran," Ritolia said. India Insulated? India's crude imports from Russia and the United States in June demonstrate this stability-focused combination. If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India could increase its reliance on the United States, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, despite higher transportation expenses. Additionally, India has the option to utilise its strategic reserves, which cover approximately 9-10 days of imports, to address any deficits. The administration could implement price support measures to control inflation if domestic rates increase, particularly for diesel and LPG. Also Read | India bleeds Pakistan dry: Water at 'dead' levels in Pakistan's dams; bigger Indus river plans in the works - top points to know During June 1st to 19th, Russian crude imports to India reached approximately 2.1-2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), sustaining Russia's position with over 35 per cent of India's overall crude imports. This trend has remained stable throughout the previous 30 months. American crude imports to India measured around 439,000 bpd in the identical period, indicating growing trade relationships across the Atlantic and India's strategy to diversify its oil sources. India's crude oil imports in June 2025 reflect a calculated strategic approach rather than a panic response. Russian petroleum serves as both a practical and economic buffer, complemented by supplies from the United States and Atlantic Basin that provide additional supply alternatives. Despite the Middle East's continued significance, particularly for crude and LPG supplies, Indian refineries now have enhanced capabilities to address supply disruptions swiftly. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical passage with minimal risk but substantial potential impact, prompting India's refining industry to establish systems ensuring operational continuity, adaptability and durability. Counter-productivity of blocking Strait of Hormuz Meanwhile, China's position as Iran's primary oil customer, importing 47 per cent of seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf, creates significant implications for Iran. Iran's heavy dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports through Kharg Island, which manages 96 per cent of its exports, makes any self-imposed blockade counterproductive. Over the past two years, Tehran has actively worked to restore diplomatic relations with major regional players, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These nations heavily rely on the Strait for their exports and have expressed opposition to Israel's actions. Disrupting their oil flows could jeopardise Iran's recent diplomatic achievements. Also Read | Iran-Israel conflict: How will blocking of Strait of Hormuz hit India? Indian refiners look at alternative routes for fuel supply A blockade would inevitably trigger an international military response. US and allied forces could detect any Iranian naval preparations beforehand, potentially leading to pre-emptive action. According to Kpler, even limited sabotage attempts would only interrupt flows for 24-48 hours, as US forces could neutralise Iran's conventional naval capabilities within this timeframe. Such actions would result in military consequences and strain diplomatic relations with Oman, compromising Iran's existing communication channels with the US. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
22-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Iran-Israel War: India ramps up oil imports from Russia, US in June
India has ramped up purchases of Russian oil in June, importing more than the combined volumes from Middle Eastern suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amid market volatility triggered by Israel's dramatic attack on Iran. The US military struck three sites in Iran early Sunday, directly joining Israel which first struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 13. Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed. India's oil imports from Russia were 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May. Imports from the United States also rose to 439,000 bpd in June, a big jump from 280,000 bpd purchased in the previous month. Full-month projections for imports from the Middle East stand at around 2 million bpd, lower than the previous month's buying, according to Kpler. India, the world's third-largest oil-importing and consuming nation, bought from abroad around 5.1 million barrels of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This was primarily because Russian oil was available at a significant discount to other international benchmarks due to Western sanctions and some European countries shunning purchases. This led to India's imports of Russian oil seeing a dramatic rise, growing from less than 1 per cent of its total crude oil imports to a staggering 40-44 per cent in a short period. The conflict in the Middle East has so far not impacted oil supplies. "While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, told PTI. "Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving." This suggests that current MEG supplies are likely to tighten in the near term, potentially triggering future adjustments in India's sourcing strategy, he said. The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, serves as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Many liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar, also pass through the strait. As the military conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and a major LNG export transit. India imports about 40 per cent of all its oil and about half of its gas through the narrow Strait. According to Kpler, concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have intensified following Israel's pre-emptive strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Iranian hardliners have threatened closure, and state media have warned of oil spiking to USD 400 per barrel. "Yet, Kpler analysis assigns a very low probability to a full blockade, citing strong disincentives for Iran," Ritolia said. This is because China, Iran's largest oil customer (which imports 47 per cent of its seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf), would be directly impacted. Also, Iran's reliance on Hormuz for oil exports via Kharg Island (handles 96 per cent of its exports) makes self-blockade counterproductive. Additionally, Tehran has made deliberate efforts over the past two years to rebuild ties with key regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which rely heavily on the Strait for exports and have publicly condemned Israel's actions. Sabotaging their flows would risk unraveling those diplomatic gains. A closure would also provoke international military retaliation. Any Iranian naval build-up would be detectable in advance, likely triggering a preemptive US and allied response. At most, isolated sabotage efforts could disrupt flows for 24-48 hours, the estimated time required for US forces to neutralise Iran's conventional naval assets, according to Kpler. Any such move would provoke military retaliation and diplomatic fallout with Oman, undermining Iran's own backchannels with the US. Ritolia said India's import strategy has evolved significantly over the past two years. Russian oil (Urals, ESPO, Sokol) is logistically detached from Hormuz, flowing via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or Pacific Ocean. Indian refiners have built refining and payment flexibility, while optimizing runs for a wider crude slate. Even US, West African, and Latin American flows - though costlier - are increasingly viable backup options. "India's June volumes from Russia and the US confirm this resilience-oriented mix," he said. "If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India may pivot harder toward the US, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit at higher freight costs. Also, India may tap its strategic reserves (covering 9-10 days of imports) to bridge any shortfall.
Time of India
22-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India ramps up oil imports from Russia, US in June amid Israel-Iran tensions
India has upped purchases of Russian oil in June, importing more than the combined volumes from Middle Eastern suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amid volatile market caused by Israel's attack on Iran . On Sunday, the US military struck three nuclear sites in Iran, directly supporting Israel, which first struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 13. In June, Indian refiners are projected to import 2-2.2 million barrels of Russian oil per day, the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed. India's oil imports from Russia were 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May. Furthermore, imports from the US rose to 439,000 bpd in June, a massive jump from 280,000 bpd purchased in the previous month. The projections for imports from the Middle East is at around 2 million bpd in June, lower than the May's buying, according to Kpler. India is the world's third-largest oil importing and consuming nation. It bought about 5.1 million barrels of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries. India began importing large volumes of Russian oil post the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The country has traditionally been an importer of Middle East oil. Russian imports rose because the oil was available at a significant discount to other international benchmarks due to Western sanctions and some European countries shunning purchases. This led to a dramatic rise in import of Russian oil, growing from less than 1 per cent of its total crude oil imports to a staggering 40-44 per cent in a short period. The conflict in the Middle East has so far not impacted oil supplies. "While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, told PTI. "Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving." This implies that the current MEG supplies are likely to tighten in the near term, potentially triggering future adjustments in India's sourcing strategy, he said. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south and serves as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Many liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar, also pass through the strait. Iran has now threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as military conflict in the region picks pace. The corridor sees a fifth of the world's oil and a major LNG export transit. India imports about 40 per cent of all its oil and about half of its gas through the narrow Strait. According to Kpler, concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have intensified following Israel's pre-emptive strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Iranian hardliners have threatened closure, and state media have warned of oil spiking to $400 per barrel. "Yet, Kpler analysis assigns a very low probability to a full blockade, citing strong disincentives for Iran," Ritolia said. This is mainly because China, Iran's largest oil importer (which imports 47 per cent of its seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf), would be directly impacted. Further, Iran's reliance on Hormuz for oil exports via Kharg Island (handles 96 per cent of its exports) makes self-blockade counterproductive. Additionally, Tehran has made efforts over the past two years to rebuild ties with key regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which rely heavily on the Strait for exports and have publicly condemned Israel's actions. Cutting off flows would risk unraveling those diplomatic gains. Another reason is that the closure would also provoke international military retaliation. Any Iranian naval build-up would be detectable in advance, likely triggering a preemptive US and allied response. At most, isolated sabotage efforts could disrupt flows for 24-48 hours, the estimated time required for US forces to neutralise Iran's conventional naval assets, according to Kpler. Ritolia said India's import strategy has evolved significantly over the past two years. Russian oil (Urals, ESPO, Sokol) does not use Hormuz. It flows via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or Pacific Ocean. Indian refiners have built refining and payment flexibility, while optimizing runs for a wider crude slate. Even US, West African, and Latin American flows - though costlier - are increasingly viable backup options. "India's June volumes from Russia and the US confirm this resilience-oriented mix," he said. "If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India may pivot harder toward the US, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit at higher freight costs. Also, India may tap its strategic reserves (covering 9-10 days of imports) to bridge any shortfall.
New Indian Express
22-06-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
Iran-Israel War: India ramps up oil imports from Russia, US in June
NEW DELHI: India has ramped up purchases of Russian oil in June, importing more than the combined volumes from Middle Eastern suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amid market volatility triggered by Israel's dramatic attack on Iran. The US military struck three sites in Iran early Sunday, directly joining Israel which first struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 13. Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed. India's oil imports from Russia were 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May. Imports from the United States also rose to 439,000 bpd in June, a big jump from 280,000 bpd purchased in the previous month. Full-month projections for imports from the Middle East stand at around 2 million bpd, lower than the previous month's buying, according to Kpler. India, the world's third-largest oil-importing and consuming nation, bought from abroad around 5.1 million barrels of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This was primarily because Russian oil was available at a significant discount to other international benchmarks due to Western sanctions and some European countries shunning purchases. This led to India's imports of Russian oil seeing a dramatic rise, growing from less than 1 per cent of its total crude oil imports to a staggering 40-44 per cent in a short period. The conflict in the Middle East has so far not impacted oil supplies. "While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, told PTI. "Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving."
