Latest news with #SupplyChains
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What do China's surging exports mean for the world?
-- China's recent export surge is creating ripple effects across global trade, with UBS analysts warning of a potential 'second China shock.' According to UBS, 'export volumes [are] up 20%' over the past two years, compared to just 6% growth in the rest of the world, marking China's strongest trade outperformance since joining the World Trade Organization. Much of this growth is being directed toward emerging markets (EM), which now account for over half of China's exports and trade surplus, said the bank. 'That China's share of final demand is rising in sectors ranging from Latam autos to ASEAN household appliances shows that its export penetration runs far deeper than cyclical 'transshipping' effects,' UBS wrote. They add that the quality of Chinese goods is improving, and the country's export momentum continues even as negative price deflators ease. 'This isn't just about low prices… quality is playing an increasingly important role,' UBS noted. While some of China's export strengths are in building new supply chains, such as Hungarian autos and Indonesian mining, UBS cautioned that the broader trend could weigh on other EM economies. 'China's rising export competitiveness may compromise growth in the rest of EM,' the analysts warned, citing weak FDI inflows, declining manufacturing/GDP ratios, and deflationary pressures in sectors like chemicals and household products. UBS sees limited near-term progress in China's efforts to curb overcapacity. Despite higher U.S. tariffs and attempts to boost domestic consumption, 'disinflationary spillovers' are likely to persist. 'These disinflationary spillovers will leave EM central banks with more work to do,' UBS added. The implications for global markets are said to be mixed, with some EM equities potentially benefiting from looser monetary policy, particularly in countries less exposed to Chinese competition. Related articles What do China's surging exports mean for the world? Fed's Bostic says tariffs effects may take a year 'to fully play out' President Trump's views on Japan tariffs may be misinformed, says PM Ishiba
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump Just Shook Asia's Trade Game--Vietnam Made the First Move
Donald Trump just redrew the map of Asian trade. In a surprise move, the former US president announced a deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff on all goods sent to the USand a steep 40% on anything transshipped through the country. The goal? To shut down backdoor routes for Chinese goods. In exchange, Vietnam agreed to slash tariffs on US imports to zero. While the 20% figure is lower than the 46% Trump previously threatened, officials from India to Thailand are watching nervously. For India, which is scrambling to finalize its own deal before a July 9 deadline, the worry is real. This isn't just about tax ratesit's about leverage, and who holds it. In India's electronics sector, more than 60% of inputs come from China. That's the weak spot. Trump's team is pushing harder on rules-of-origin and cracking down on transshipment. Countries like Thailand, long seen as convenient hubs for re-routing Chinese goods, are now facing pressure to build real domestic value. As one Thai economist put it: this deal might be the beginning of a whole new trade order. For investors, the implications are serious. If the US starts enforcing these kinds of deals across Asia, supply chains could shift fastespecially in sectors like electronics, autos, and renewables. Companies like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which rely on complex Asia-based sourcing, could feel the ripple effects if suppliers are forced to retool or rebase production. Indonesia, playing offense, just committed $34 billion in trade and investment pacts with the USand notably escaped any transshipment scrutiny. Meanwhile, China may not take this lightly. Beijing has already signaled it may retaliate. As pressure ramps up, one thing is becoming clear: the cost of selling to the US is going up, and not everyone's ready. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
20-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Raids on Farms Fuel Worries About America's Food
President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration threatens to hurt the US food sector — one that's heavily dependent on foreign labor. By Save Welcome to the new Business of Food newsletter, covering how the world feeds itself in a changing economy and climate, from farming to supply chains to consumer trends. This week, Ilena Peng writes about Donald Trump's immigration raids and the impact on America's food. Readers of Supply Lines will be receiving this new newsletter on Fridays instead of the global food edition of Supply Lines. Any tips or feedback? Email food czar Agnieszka de Sousa. And if you aren't yet signed up to receive this newsletter, please do so here.
