Latest news with #SurveyofConsumers
Business Insider
10 hours ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Stock Market News Review: SPY, QQQ Resilient as U.S.-Canada Trade Talks End, Inflation Rises
Both the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) secured new intraday all-time highs on Friday, although some of the gains were erased after President Trump said that the U.S. had terminated its trade talks with Canada. Confident Investing Starts Here: Following Canada's decision to proceed with its digital services tax on U.S. technology companies, Trump announced a halt to all U.S.-Canada trade discussions. The tax charges a 3% fee on all U.S. tech revenue above C$20 million, or about $14.6 million, collected from Canadian users. 'We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period,' said Trump on Truth Social. Trump also said that the U.S. would no longer consider removing sanctions on Iran following a speech from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei downplayed the damage of the U.S. strikes on three of Iran's nuclear sites and said that the country had delivered a 'slap to America's face.' Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, showed a monthly rise of 0.2% and a yearly rise of 2.7%. Economists were expecting growth of 0.1% and 2.6%, respectively. Furthermore, April's core PCE was revised upward to 2.6% from 2.5%. Core PCE excludes food and energy prices from the regular PCE index given their volatility. Shifting gears to more optimistic news, Trump is preparing executive orders to support AI development, according to Reuters. The orders could include green-lighting the construction of AI data centers on federal land and easier grid access for new energy projects, said sources close to the matter. What's more, consumer sentiment could be in the early stages of a recovery. The June Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 16% month-over-month to 60.7, reversing six consecutive months of declines. Economists were expecting 60.5, with a higher figure representing a more positive economic outlook. At the same time, fears over tariff-driven inflation and economic uncertainty still persist. 'Despite June's gains, however, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024, right after the election; consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come,' said Survey of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
The Star
17 hours ago
- Business
- The Star
UM consumer sentiment index rises for first time in 6 months
CHICAGO, June 27 (Xinhua) -- The Consumer Sentiment Index released Friday by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers rose to 60.7 in the June 2025 survey, up from 52.2 in May and below last June's 68.2. The UM consumer sentiment has improved for the first time in six months. The Current Index rose to 64.8 in June, up from 58.9 in May and below last June's 65.9; the Expectations Index rose to 58.1, up from 47.9 in May and below last June's 69.6. Labor market expectations improved in June but remain considerably worse than at the beginning of the year. About 57 percent of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down from 66 percent in March but still much higher than the 40 percent seen in December 2024. Expectations for consumers' own income growth improved modestly in June, but June readings were worse than six months ago. Expectations for personal finances soared 17 percent from near historic lows in May but were 17 percent below December 2024. Beliefs about the anticipated effects of tariffs have shaped consumers' views of the economy this year. In June, about 59 percent of consumers provided unsolicited comments about tariffs, down from 66 percent in May but marking three consecutive months a majority of consumers did so. The share of consumers expecting business conditions to worsen in the year ahead fell from 64 percent in May but stood high at 55 percent, compared with just 29 percent in November 2024. "Consumers feel they have some breathing room given that the historically high tariffs announced earlier this year have not been sustained, and the worst-case scenarios for the economy have not come to fruition," said economist Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers. "However, consumers still worry that higher inflation and an economic slowdown are on the horizon, and they remain very cautious." The Surveys of Consumers is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally representative sample that gives each household in the coterminous United States an equal probability of being selected. Interviews are conducted throughout the month by telephone.
Yahoo
14-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
America's deepest inflation fears are starting to fade
Americans are feeling better about the path forward for inflation. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed pessimism over the inflation outlook lessened in June, as one-year inflation expectations plunged to 5.1% from the more than four-decade high of 6.6% reached in May. Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, also fell, hitting 4.1% in June, down from 4.2% in May. The broader consumer sentiment index rebounded as well, rising to 60.5 in June, above the 52.2 seen in May, which had been one of the lowest readings on record. "Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed," Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote in the release. Our Chart of the Week shows inflation expectations coming off the boil. Put simply, expectations for price increases are more tempered than they were a month ago, but they are still not as optimistic as they were six months ago. But this framing — "better than feared" — is the story of what's brought the S&P 500 (^GSPC) back near all-time highs. Like consumers, investors made peace with these disappointments and welcomed the improvements that followed. Tariffs are still higher than Wall Street expected coming into the year, but not as high as the peak fears seen in April. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later this year, but not by as much as hoped last year. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Strategists are growing more bullish on stocks, though the median S&P 500 target among strategists sits at 6,100, well below the 6,500 seen in December. However, no fewer than 11 Wall Street firms cut their S&P 500 targets as markets sold off in April; at least eight of these firms have since raised their outlooks again. Both groups, consumers and investors, ultimately ask themselves the same two-part question: Are things going well now? And are they getting better or worse? It's the latter that usually moves the needle. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US consumer sentiment rises for first time this year as 'shock' of high tariffs wears off
Consumers are starting to feel better about the trajectory of the US economy as President Trump has dialed back some of his most aggressive stances on tariffs and Americans come to terms with the economic reality that tariffs are here to stay. The latest University of Michigan survey released Friday showed sentiment increased for the first time since December 2024, with the index rising to a reading of 60.5, above the 52.2 seen last month and the 53.6 expected by economists. The increase came after May recorded one of the lowest readings on record. "Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed," Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote in the release. Pessimism over the inflation outlook lessened in June, as one-year inflation expectations plunged to 5.1% from the more than four-decade high of 6.6% reached in May. Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, also fell, hitting 4.1% in June, down from 4.2% in May. Read more: What is consumer confidence, and why does it matter? Still, Hsu noted that consumer views of business conditions, personal finances, labor markets, stock markets, and buying conditions for big-ticket items all remain below where they were in December. "Despite this month's notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy," Hsu said. In April, the estimated US effective tariff rate peaked around 27%, significantly higher than the 2.5% rate entering the year. But following pauses on many of Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs and a 90-day pause on duties placed on China, JPMorgan now estimates the US effective tariff rate is closer to 14%. The rise in the University of Michigan's June survey follows a similar signal from May's Consumer Confidence reading from The Conference Board. The latest index reading from The Conference Board was 98 in May, well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected. The expectations index surged off its 13-year low seen in April, reaching 72.8 in May, far above the 55.4 in the month prior. This marked the largest month-over-month increase for that metric since May 2009. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet In a research published on June 6, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin pointed out that so-called soft economic data, which covers data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or jobs. Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US consumer sentiment rises for first time this year as 'shock' of high tariffs wears off
Consumers are starting to feel better about the trajectory of the US economy as President Trump has dialed back some of his most aggressive stances on tariffs and Americans come to terms with the economic reality that tariffs are here to stay. The latest University of Michigan survey released Friday showed sentiment increased for the first time since Dec. 2024, with the index rising to a reading of 60.5, above the 52.2 seen last month and the 53.6 expected by economists. The increase came after May recorded one of the lowest readings on record. "Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed," Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote in the release. Pessimism over the inflation outlook lessened in June ,as one-year inflation expectations plunged to 5.1% from the more than four-decade high of 6.6% reached in May. Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, also fell, hitting 4.1% in June down from 4.2% in May. Still, Hsu noted that consumer views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain below where they were in December. "Despite this month's notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy," Hsu said. The rise in the University's Michigan's June survey follows a similar signal from May's Consumer Confidence reading from The Conference Board. The latest index reading from The Conference Board was 98 in May, well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected. The expectations index surged off its 13-year low seen in April, reaching 72.8 in May, far above the 55.4 in the month prior. This marked the largest month-over-month increase for that metric since May 2009. In a research published on June 6, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin pointed out that so-called soft economic data, which covers data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or jobs. Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
