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Business Recorder
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
The age of AI and its new currency
In the twentieth century, oil and its accessibility were one of the greatest geopolitical advantages a nation could have. Oil dictated wars, alliances, and the global balance of power. Nations rose or fell, fought or allied, all for a resource buried beneath desert sands and ocean floors. The world today, however, has drastically changed. A critical new resource is subtly redefining international relations—minerals, specifically rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These minerals are the driving force behind technologies powering electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and advanced weaponry, making them indispensable to the new global order. Thus, a consequential shift has emerged: critical minerals now dictate global realignments, with nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths forming the new geopolitical currency. China wisely anticipated this transition decades ago. Beijing now processes almost 90 percent of the world's rare-earth elements (REE), controlling nearly three-quarters of global cobalt refining. China also leads global lithium production chains. Securing strategic agreements from Latin America's 'Lithium Triangle' to cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, China has positioned itself securely ahead in a geopolitical race reminiscent of OPEC's dominance over oil markets. The US, in an effort to counterbalance this strategic deficit, seeks to reverse China's dominant position. Trump issued new executive orders to ramp up US domestic production immediately after taking oath, explicitly to limit dependency on Chinese imports; he also aimed to augment economic diplomacy to secure vital minerals abroad. Under President Trump's revived administration, America comes with a renewed international relations doctrine—it is demanding mineral access openly, using executive orders and bilateral agreements to push transactional diplomacy; a stark departure from his predecessors' approach. On 30 April 2025, the US and Ukraine formally signed their anticipated deal centered around minerals. In this minerals-for-investment agreement, the US gained priority access to Ukraine's critical minerals in exchange for capital and reconstruction support. Despite Kyiv's initial demand for security guarantees, the finalized pact provided none. The Ukrainian parliament unanimously ratified the deal, wishfully thinking higher US commercial stakes would bolster lasting peace and deter Russian aggression; none of that has happened so far. The deal, nevertheless, symbolizes a broader shift in US foreign policy under Trump: strategic support framed as commercial engagement, with direct diplomacy toward adversaries like Russia substituting for traditional alliance obligations. Since then, Ukraine has approved bidding for its major Dobra lithium field, involving US-backed firms such as TechMet and Ronald Lauder. Yet Ukraine's requests for Patriot air defence systems remain unanswered, with Trump indicating these may be sold rather than donated. At their NATO summit meeting on June 25, Zelensky proposed drone co-production with American companies, but Trump offered no concrete assurances, citing limited Patriot supplies allocated to Israel. Following Ukraine, Trump has also begun to look eastward, while countries quietly rework their strategies. Some countries are deepening ties with Washington to hedge against China's dominance yet remain skeptical of Trump's reluctance to offer security guarantees. Others are revamping their supply chains to prepare for the AI age. The Philippines, for example, is emerging as the next frontier for Trump's minerals-first foreign policy. Manila is pursuing approval of a sectoral FTA focused on critical minerals, particularly nickel. Currently, over 90% of its nickel exports go to China. Japan is deepening its role in the global EV supply chain through domestic investments — such as a US$143 million lithium-sulfide battery facility — and new extraction plans for seabed cobalt and nickel near Minami-Torishima. South Korea, meanwhile, is institutionalizing its mineral diplomacy by backing joint ventures in Africa, including a US$40 million graphite project in Tanzania under the Minerals Security Partnership. Both countries remain vital to US supply chain goals, yet neither is deemed critical enough to warrant formal US security guarantees—revealing a strategic asymmetry. Taiwan, the backbone of the global semiconductor supply chain, now faces dual pressure under Trump's second term. Washington is pushing for deeper TSMC-Intel partnerships to relocate chip production to US soil; TSMC has pledged over $100 billion for its Arizona 'Fab 21' facility to avoid tariffs, with Trump hailing it as proof of his reshoring doctrine. Prior to the latest U.S.-Taiwan Defence Industry Forum—led by former Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and contractors like Lockheed Martin—the Pentagon had notably declined to comment after Taiwan publicly affirmed US defence cooperation. The forum instead emphasized drone co-production, unmanned systems, and calls for Taiwan to increase its own defense spending. This reflects a growing Trump-era pattern: strategic economic integration without military guarantees, and a Ukraine-style push for allied rearmament absent alliance commitments. Pakistan also finds itself pressed into this uneasy environment; possessing mineral reserves estimated at over $3 billion in Gilgit-Baltistan alone. This figure, however, is just a glimpse of what lies beneath; the country has flaunted its much larger potential—nearly $6 trillion in mineral resources—at international investment forums aimed at attracting global capital. Weeks before recent Indian escalations along the northern border, Trump's administration explicitly expressed direct interest in Pakistan's minerals, notably in Gilgit-Baltistan and the Reko Diq copper-gold project. Canadian giant Barrick Gold, with significant US financing, recently finalized a US$440 million deal with Japanese manufacturer Komatsu to deliver mining equipment beginning in 2026—marking Komatsu's first major placement in the region and accompanied by a US$100 million service and maintenance hub in Karachi. Although Pakistan has yet to sign a formal bilateral mineral agreement with Washington, Trump's approach departs sharply from previous White House administrations. This divergence became pronounced on June 19, when Trump hosted Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for an unprecedented White House lunch. Trump publicly praised Pakistan's role in defusing tensions with India and for capturing the Abbey Gate bombing suspect, yet stopped short of offering any explicit security guarantees or alliance framework. Privately, critical minerals, crypto initiatives, and tariff incentives reportedly dominated the discussion. Just days later, both countries agreed to finalize a bilateral trade framework that includes preferential access for Pakistani exports and U.S. participation in mining projects such as Reko Diq — reportedly backed by Ex-Im Bank financing of up to US$1 billion. Previous American administrations leveraged such overtures into broader security arrangements—deterring India through quiet diplomatic assurances—while Trump is currently seeking economic deals alone. His team continues to advance a Saudi minerals strategy as well. In May, California-based MP Materials signed a joint venture with Saudi Arabia's Maaden to establish a vertically integrated rare-earth magnet supply chain. Saudi Arabia—eager to diversify away from oil—offers the US a low-regulation environment and refining expertise. Meanwhile, India seizes the opportunity created by American ambiguity. Beyond traditional military aggression, India has weaponized water infrastructure upstream, strategically choking Pakistan's critical rivers. In this environment, Pakistan urgently needs more than transactional diplomacy — it needs credible partners willing to balance economic access with strategic reliability. Pakistan must strategically leverage its minerals in this new world without optical delusions. Islamabad must realize America under Trump seeks profitable clients rather than strategic allies. Pakistan's foreign policy should maturely recognize this distinction. Selling mineral rights or permitting investment offers short-term economic gains, but Pakistan must rely on more than economic transactions alone for security guarantees against aggressive neighbors. Pakistan faces two strategic choices. It can engage cautiously with Trump's transactional America — accepting investments, securing market access, and hedging against security risks. Alternatively, Islamabad's stance could revolve around deeper multilateral integration, drawing Pakistan closer to Western-led initiatives involving governance reforms, transparency standards, and broader strategic commitments, thus balancing existing ties with China. Both paths carry risks, yet indecision carries the greatest peril. Minerals have become the oil of the 21st century, and Pakistan, by virtue of its strategic location, sits squarely in the middle of this race. Its reaffirmation of CPEC, recent coordination with Beijing ahead of the SCO summit, and outreach to both Washington and Riyadh all reflect an uneasy calculus: how to remain indispensable without becoming dispensable. Pakistan's strategic ambiguity may have worked in an era of oil diplomacy, but today's mineral politics demand decisive clarity. Islamabad must understand this new game clearly—transactional diplomacy without security guarantees leaves nations susceptible. A resource-rich country can quickly find itself isolated, economically exploited, and strategically stranded. In a world increasingly shaped by minerals rather than oil, Pakistan's path forward must be defined by wise alignments, carefully chosen partners, and clear-eyed realism. The future demands no less. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
New York Times
16-06-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Ukraine Takes First Step Toward Carrying Out Minerals Deal With U.S.
More than a month after Ukraine signed a landmark agreement granting the United States a stake in its mineral reserves, Kyiv is striving to show the Trump administration that the deal can deliver swift, tangible results. On Monday, Ukraine approved the first steps to allowing private investors to mine a major state-owned lithium deposit, two government officials said. Such a project would be the first to be greenlit under the deal. The government agreed to begin drafting recommendations for opening bidding by companies to mine the Dobra lithium field in central Ukraine, according to the two officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. It is one of Ukraine's largest fields of lithium, a mineral critical for producing electric batteries. Among the likely bidders is a consortium of investors that include TechMet, an energy investment firm partly owned by the U.S. government, and Ronald S. Lauder, a billionaire friend of President Trump's. The group has long expressed interest in the Dobra lithium deposit, urging President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in late 2023 to open bids. Under the broader deal, half the revenues the Ukrainian government earns from mineral extraction would go to a joint U.S.-Ukraine investment fund. Those revenues would then be reinvested in Ukraine's economy, though the United States would also claim a portion. Mr. Trump has portrayed that arrangement as repayment for past U.S. aid to the war-torn country. Drafting the recommendations is expected to take weeks, and the Ukrainian government could still decide against opening the bidding process. The Ukrainian government did not immediately publicly comment on Monday's decision. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
E&E News
27-05-2025
- Business
- E&E News
Former State Dept. official, climate negotiator lands at TechMet
A former State Department official, global infrastructure envoy and climate negotiator has landed at TechMet, a Dubin-based private minerals and investment company partially owned by the federal government. Helaina Matza, who worked at the State Department for 14 years, is joining TechMet on Tuesday as chief strategic development officer based in Washington. She will focus on forging relationships between TechMet, which is partially owned by the International Development Finance Corp., and other companies and countries. As the U.S. works to shore up critical minerals and supply chains tied to energy, renewables and military technology and offset China's dominance, TechMet has been active in seeking out opportunities, including potentially developing a lithium deposit in war-torn Ukraine. Advertisement Brian Menell, the company's chair and CEO, said on Capitol Hill last month that TechMet, founded in 2017, is building projects that 'produce, process and recycle the critical minerals needed to secure competitive, China-free supply chains to feed American industry and national defense.' The company's portfolio, he said, includes 10 companies and focuses on advancing production of lithium, nickel, cobalt, tin, tungsten, vanadium and rare earth elements.
New York Times
12-02-2025
- Business
- New York Times
How Ukraine Pitched Trump on a Deal for Critical Minerals
To Ukraine, they are a chit to play in an ongoing appeal to President Trump for more financial and military support. To Mr. Trump, they should be overdue payment for billions of dollars committed to Kyiv's war effort. Either way, Ukraine's vast and valuable mineral resources have suddenly become a prominent component in the maneuvering over the country's future. Over the past week, Mr. Trump has repeatedly pushed the idea of trading U.S. aid for Ukraine's critical minerals. He told Fox News on Monday that he wanted 'the equivalent of like $500 billion worth of rare earths,' a group of minerals crucial for many high-tech products, in exchange for American aid. Ukraine had 'essentially agreed to do that,' he said. For Ukraine, it is a hopeful sign that Mr. Trump, a longtime skeptic of American aid to Kyiv, might find a path to maintaining support that he finds palatable. But it's still possible that the famously mercurial president will change his mind, and even his statements about a deal have been ambiguous about whether he wants Ukraine's minerals for past or future aid — or a combination of both. Mr. Trump's proposal followed a campaign launched by Kyiv in the fall to appeal to the U.S. president's business-oriented mind-set by discussing lucrative energy deals and emphasizing that defending Ukraine aligned with American economic interests. The campaign included a meeting between Mr. Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky and trips to the United States by Ukrainian officials to pitch deals for exploiting deposits of lithium and titanium — vital for producing technologies like electric batteries. It also involved getting backing from influential political figures like the Republican senator Lindsey Graham. The campaign was launched after politically connected U.S. investors started showing interest in Ukraine's underground wealth in late 2023, despite the war that has been raging since 2022. A consortium including TechMet, an energy investment firm partly owned by the U.S. government, and Ronald S. Lauder, a wealthy friend of Mr. Trump, has engaged with Kyiv to bid on a Ukrainian lithium field, according to a letter to Mr. Zelensky reviewed by The New York Times. Mr. Lauder, a cosmetics heir who planted the idea in Mr. Trump's mind of buying resource-rich Greenland, said through a spokesman that he had not discussed Ukrainian minerals with Mr. Trump directly, but had 'raised the issue with stakeholders in the U.S. and Ukraine for many years up to the present day.' As Mr. Trump pushes for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Kyiv's campaign around critical minerals has underscored Mr. Zelensky's evolving strategy for retaining American support. Moving away from the moral appeals he used with the Biden administration, he has embraced a more transactional approach closer to Mr. Trump's style. Mr. Zelensky recently said that he would also be interested in purchasing American liquefied natural gas. Speaking to Reuters on Friday, Mr. Zelensky said: 'If we are talking about a deal, then let's do a deal.' Mr. Trump said Tuesday that he was sending his Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, to meet Mr. Zelensky in Ukraine — the first visit by a Trump administration official. Mr. Bessent was directed to explore with the Ukrainians what a deal for the minerals might look like. He was expected in Kyiv on Wednesday, according to an official with knowledge of the trip. The idea of leveraging Ukraine's mineral resources took shape last summer. Kyiv was crafting its 'Victory Plan,' a strategy aimed at ending the war on terms favorable to Ukraine, and wanted to convince its allies to sustain their support despite rising war fatigue. Ukrainian officials were particularly concerned about a potential return to power of Mr. Trump, who had vowed to cut off military and financial aid to Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials and lawmakers. Their attention was drawn to an argument voiced by a Trump ally: Mr. Graham, who was making the case that Ukraine was 'sitting on a gold mine' of critical minerals. 'If we help Ukraine now, they could become the best business partner we've ever dreamed of,' he said last June. He reinforced his message in a video with Mr. Zelensky in September. Ukrainian authorities say the country holds deposits of nearly half the 50 minerals the United States has identified as critical for its economy and national security. The Kyiv School of Economics says Ukraine holds the largest titanium reserves in Europe and a third of the continent's lithium reserves. Groups like SecDev, a Canadian firm, have valued the reserves at several trillion dollars. But some deposits are inaccessible because they are in Russian-occupied land. And experts caution that exploiting mineral reserves could be a costly and prolonged process, with new surveys needed to accurately assess their potential. In a November 2023 letter to Mr. Zelensky, Brian Menell, head of TechMet, sought assistance for launching a bid to exploit a state-owned lithium field in central Ukraine. The letter named Mr. Lauder, the Texas-based investment firm Privateer Capital and other U.S. and international investors as associates. Mr. Menell and other energy executives met Mr. Zelensky in New York in September. It is unclear whether they discussed the bid, which has yet to be launched. 'TechMet, together with our partners, is available to move forward with further work if the U.S. and Ukrainian governments instruct us to do so,' Mr. Menell said in a statement. Kyiv then decided to offer allies access to critical minerals as part of its Victory Plan. Mr. Zelensky presented the plan to Mr. Trump during a meeting in New York in late September. During Mr. Trump's first term, when Kremlin-backed troops were already waging war in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv won support from him, including for weapons supplies, by buying coal from an important swing state, Pennsylvania. Part of Ukraine's argument now is to emphasize that should it lose the war, its mineral resources would fall into the hands of Russia and its allies like China, which already dominates the global market for such materials. John E. Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and now senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, said Ukraine's pitch was an obvious sell for Mr. Trump. 'It involves vast energy resources, economically valuable assets which are not abundant in the Western world, and it's a way to strip other competitors, including China, of their leverage over the United States,' Mr. Herbst said. 'It's a no-brainer.' Last fall, work was underway to finalize and sign an agreement with the Biden administration to cooperate on extracting and processing minerals. But Ukrainian authorities decided to postpone the signing of the deal and offer it to Mr. Trump instead so that he could claim credit for it. A Ukrainian delegation led by Yulia Svyrydenko, the economy minister, then traveled to New York and Washington in December for meetings with U.S. officials and business representatives, with critical minerals as a central topic. Ms. Svyrydenko outlined potential energy deals, including the acquisition of production licenses for critical minerals. A presentation, seen by The Times, emphasized that Ukraine was 'capable of building the entire value chain to meet U.S. and E.U. metallic titanium demand for 25 years.' Matthew Murray, chairman of the advisory board of Velta, a Ukrainian titanium extraction company, said Ms. Svyrydenko had asked him and other U.S. business representatives for their help in making Ukraine's case to the Trump administration. 'We spent a good deal of this meeting talking about critical raw materials,' Mr. Murray said. He added that the exploitation of these resources could become a new pillar of the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. What shape this pillar may take remains to be seen. A draft of the agreement that Kyiv postponed, and which was reviewed by The Times, included only pledges to share information and expertise on potential partnerships. It contained no financial commitments and was nonbinding. It is unclear whether Kyiv and Washington will amend the agreement to align it with Mr. Trump's latest proposals. Mr. Murray, a former Obama administration official, said one idea circulating in Washington was to offer Ukraine a loan to purchase U.S. weaponry, with access to critical minerals as collateral. This proposal could align with Mr. Trump's vision, who has talked of obtaining a 'guarantee' for continued American assistance. 'There are many steps yet to be taken, but the concept is very viable,' he said.
