Latest news with #Tehranis
Time of India
30-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Iranian regime change? Not the kind you're looking for.
Back when I used to be able to visit Iran , I remember always being surprised by the popularity of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary's Guard Corps ' elite Al-Quds force , who was assassinated on US President Donald Trump 's orders in 2020. This was true even of Westward-looking Tehranis who loathed the regime and held parties where the alcohol flowed and the skirts were short. Asked why, the answer was always the same. Soleimani kept the foreign threats destabilizing other countries of the Middle East at bay; he fought them abroad so they wouldn't have to be fought at home. Islamic State, a Sunni-Islamist terrorist organization, could terrorize Shiites in Iraq and their Alawite cousins in Syria, but the streets of Tehran were safe. Soleimani played on this. He'd be photographed wearing fatigues out with pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, carefully curating a near mythological image of daring and skill. This resonated, even though he stood at the core of a hated regime, because he seemed to hold the ring for what most Iranians craved: normal lives, safety and a chance at prosperity. They wanted a nuclear reconciliation with the US and Europe, allowing for sanctions to lift and investment to return, for precisely the same reasons. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Moose Approaches Girl At Bus Stop In Bejaia - Watch What Happens Happy in Shape Undo But that was then. A 2015 nuclear deal was agreed but quickly eviscerated by Trump. The IRGC profited from the 'maximum pressure' sanctions that followed, taking over much of the domestic economy and trade ( which became primarily smuggling). Inflation soared. Private business withered. Living standards plummeted. And the worse things got, the more the IRGC cracked down domestically. There is no new Soleimani. The very source of his popularity — that he kept the dogs of war from Iranian doors — has become cause to despise his successors. Al-Quds increasingly was in the business of using the proxy network he built to poke the US and Israeli bears. That obsession backfired spectacularly this month, with Israeli jets bombing Tehran and US B-2s dropping bunker busters on Iranian nuclear facilities. Live Events Soleimani would be hated, too, were he alive today, because he was a leading architect of all this hubris. Indeed, attitudes were changing even before he died. But I think his passage from hero to villain is the context in which to see Iran's next move, now the US and Israel have called off their jets. Change will come in some form, though likely not one we'd all prefer. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 86 years old. He rules a youthful nation in which some 70% of the population weren't even born when the revolution that drives him took place. Having led the country into so desolate a cul-de-sac, his regime will pay a price. The question is how and at whose expense. Change can form around Khamenei or by the IRGC replacing or marginalizing him. But there are clear limits; the regime can't afford to acknowledge that the billions upon billions of dollars it has spent on a nuclear program, and the hundreds of billions more lost due to the sanctions, were all for nothing. It cannot be seen to surrender to 'The Great Satan.' Nor can it realistically afford to just carry on as before, pursuing reckless aggression abroad, while ruling by fear alone at home. A successful popular uprising is unlikely. Khamenei and the IRGC have faced major protests before and repeatedly crushed them. They have about 1 million men under arms, many of them heavily indoctrinated. Urban Iranians are also by now cautious, not just because of that experience, but also because they know theirs is an ethnically fractured country. They have no interest in becoming the next Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan. This leaves the best plausible outcome as a return to the popular age of Soleimani, so an internal regime recalibration rather than regime change. As Cameran Ashraf, an Iranian human rights activist and assistant professor of public policy at the Central European University in Vienna, puts it, we may all be surprised by how things unfold. 'The regime has had very strong emphasis on survival from day one,' he said. 'So, I think there is a type of flexibility there.' We saw some of that already in the carefully choreographed response Iran gave to the US bombing of Fordow. In such a scenario, negotiators would return to talks this week in search of ways to relieve pressure on the regime and Iran's economy, making limited concessions on the nuclear program in exchange. The IRGC would take a more defensive posture abroad. At home, authorities would relent in some areas of needlessly provocative domestic repression — like enforcement of headscarf laws — as they've done at times in the past. Any such course correction would be tactical. The Islamic Republic will not change its spots, until it is no more. But as I argued last week, there is no one-and-done when it comes to Iran's nuclear program, neither by diplomacy nor by force. Both sides would be trying to buy time. The alternative is that Khamenei simply doubles down, concluding that no diplomatic settlement is possible because the US is bent on Iran's destruction and can't be trusted. The focus would be on regime consolidation, rebuilding defenses and acquiring a nuclear deterrent as soon as possible. So far, most signs point to this uglier outcome. Driven to paranoia by the level of Israeli intelligence penetration that led to the killing of dozens of top military commanders and nuclear scientists, a brutal domestic crackdown is underway. As of Sunday, there was little sign the nuclear negotiations Trump has trailed for this week will in fact take place. The US and the West as a whole need to play a more subtle game. In the wake of the bombings, keeping Iran from pulling out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and from expelling International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors is vital. This should not be sacrificed to the pursuit of an unachievable certainty. Failure to reach a political settlement would all but guarantee further airstrikes and leave the region more unstable and prone to a nuclear arms race than before Trump's military intervention.
Miami Herald
18-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
In Tehran, Iranians brace for what's next in unpredictable war
It started with her neighbor frantically knocking on her front door panicking at the sound of explosions. Then she taped her windows to prevent them from shattering and packed an emergency backpack. By Tuesday, Neda was on a gridlocked highway, joining thousands of other Tehranis trying to flee the Iranian capital. Their aim was to find somewhere more remote where they wouldn't be near any of the hundreds of sites that Israel might target. "My biggest fear is the uncertainty and the ambiguity of it all," Neda, 35, said by social media chat from a suburb on the outskirts of northern Tehran. "Will this go on for a week or for eight years? Will we have to keep on improvising life one day at a time?" For the past five days, Israel has subjected Iran to its worst military attack since the Islamic Republic was invaded by neighboring Iraq in 1980. What's clear in the metropolis of 10 million people, is that people don't expect things to be the same again in a country whose leadership is hobbled and its economy shattered. A snapshot of the mood among people contacted in Tehran suggests they expect the regime will be weakened further, but it won't be toppled. Neda, for one, said she's no supporter of the Iranian leadership, but right now her ire is directed at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Whenever the conflict ends, though, major reforms will be inevitable, said Cyrus Razzaghi, president and chief executive of Tehran-based consultancy Ara Enterprise. That firstly would mean an overhaul of a fragmented intelligence apparatus that's repeatedly failed to intercept clandestine Israeli operations on Iranian soil that include successive, audacious strikes killing the country's top military and security officials. "The Islamic Republic won't emerge from this conflict unchanged," Razzaghi said. "Even if regime change is unlikely in the near term, significant internal shifts are expected once the dust settles." U.S. President Donald Trump's increasingly bellicose rhetoric - on Tuesday he told Iranians to evacuate Tehran and demanded surrender - is fanning concerns that the U.S. will join Israel's assault. Netanyahu has said he is targeting the establishment of the Islamic Republic, not just its nuclear facilities, which he's threatened to strike for years. He's appealed directly to the Iranian public, encouraging them to see his attack as an opportunity for them to oust their oppressive rulers. His military offensive has so far killed 224 Iranians, most of them civilians, according to Iran's government. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamist system of rule that he's fortified around himself have faced unprecedented levels of unpopularity in recent years. They've been challenged by some of the biggest protests since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Their demands have been ignored and the authorities have mostly doubled down on their intolerance for any dissent. But for now, it's Netanyahu who is the target of the anger among Iranians. "I can't talk for most people but I can talk about most of the people I'm in contact with and I'm certain they share this feeling I have, that with every word he says I feel this boiling rage inside of me," Neda said of Israel's prime minister. "My deep hatred for him is increasing." Khamenei's removal could make Iran more confrontational as younger, more ideological officials rise through the ranks of various institutions and try to project the country's strength, according to Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East analyst at Bloomberg Economics. Targeting Khamenei would also bolster the surge of nationalistic feeling that has begun to emerge since Israel's strikes, she wrote. The question is whether that feeling is enough to offset the deep polarization that's afflicted Iran for years and the anger with which many view the powerful clerical-military cadre that controls the country. At the moment, there are some sure signs of stubborn resistance. A news anchor of Iranian state television, for example, was heralded by the government for continuing to broadcast during a bombing raid as smoke and dust filled the studio. But with an economy battered by years of trade embargoes, sanctions and endemic mismanagement, any patience left could quickly run out. Nazanine, a 55-year-old finance officer at a marketing company, is appalled by Netanyahu, though has opposed the Iranian leadership for years. "My hatred for Netanyahu and the Islamic Republic is the same," she said. "I'm sick of them both." An Israeli and Western intelligence assessment seen by Bloomberg suggested that the war could lead to an economic collapse and inflation of 80%, if not higher. That, according to the report, would likely social discontent and challenge the stability of the ruling regime. Currently Iran's inflation rate is around 43%, one of the highest in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund. Underscoring a reliance on petrodollars, the country needs an oil price of $163 a barrel - more than double's today's level of around $75 - to balance its budget, according to calculations by the Fund. There are already signs of pain. Since Friday, the rial has weakened more than 10% against the dollar on the black market, according to a site that tracks the currency's street value. For Nazanine, the first task is to confront the shock of having to flee her city. She lives in a wealthy northern Tehran neighborhood that's been targeted several times by Israel. Her apartment overlooks the now bombed out multistory residence of top Khamenei aide, Ali Shamkhani. Shamkhani survived the attack and is being treated in hospital, the state-run Nour News reported on Monday without giving details of his injuries. "I was awake when it all happened," she said from the relative safety of the countryside on the outskirts of Tehran. "It feels like a real war." --------- -With assistance from Rachel Lavin and Alberto Nardelli. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Ya Libnan
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Ya Libnan
Backed into a corner, Iran's ruthless leader Ali Khamanei faces fight for survival, Analysis
Over several decades in power, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has built up regional proxy forces and a formidable missile arsenal with the aim of deterring precisely the kind of direct assaults being carried out by Israel. With his allies defanged and Israeli planes controlling the skies over Tehran, Iran's supreme leader is now fighting for his survival and that of his regime, with few options left. Iran 's undisputed leader since 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has weathered decades of international sanctions, near-constant regional tensions and protest movements he ruthlessly suppressed to maintain his iron grip on the Islamic Republic. Israel's unprecedented strikes on nuclear, military and infrastructure targets in Iran mark by far his most serious crisis yet, threatening both the clerical regime he has led for the past 36 years and his own survival. In five days of bombardment, Israel has decapitated Iran's top military brass, repeatedly struck its main nuclear sites, and killed many of Khamenei's closest aides. It has also bombed other parts of the state and security apparatus as well as key energy infrastructure, triggering an exodus of Tehranis from the capital. While Iran has responded with deadly strikes on Israeli cities, the mismatch in firepower has left Tehran at the mercy of the Israeli air force, facing the possibility of a US intervention on Israel's side – and with no major allies to call upon. Echoes of Iraq Many Iranians will feel they have been there before. The Islamic Republic was just one year old in 1980 when it was dragged into a gruesome eight-year war by Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein – who at the time enjoyed the backing of most Western and regional powers. The enduring trauma of the Iran-Iraq war persuaded Khamenei to build a coalition of proxy forces in the region that would engage in asymmetrical warfare and, crucially, deter Iran's foes from directly attacking its territory. For further deterrence, the Islamic Republic also rushed to build up its missile and drone manufacturing capability, acquiring what was believed to be the largest missile arsenal in the region. Those deterrents have long allowed the hardline ruler to keep up his rhetoric of confrontation with the US and project an image of power to rival Israel's, while keeping conflict away from Iran's borders and giving the regime a free hand to crack down on dissent. Since the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, however, Khamenei has looked on impotently as his key allies – Lebanon's Hezbollah , Hamas in Gaza, Yemen's Houthis and Syria's Bashar al-Assad – have been defanged, diminished or toppled, one by one. The demise of the 'Axis of Resistance' has effectively stripped Khamenei's regime of its outer defences, allowing Israel to bring the fight directly to Tehran. Iran's air defences took a first pummelling when the two bitter foes exchanged missile strikes last October. With Israeli jets now in control of the Iranian air space, and free to track down Iranian missile launchers, it is unclear how long the Islamic Republic's other key deterrent – its ballistic missiles arsenal – can sustain the fighting. 'We won't take him out – for now' Khamenei, 86, has remained typically defiant in the face of the Israeli onslaught, stating on Wednesday in a post on X: 'We must give a strong response to the terrorist Zionist regime. We will show the Zionists no mercy.' Israel's success in killing several of his top aides, however, shows just how far Israel has penetrated Iranian defences and intelligence. It has also raised the question of whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could give an order to seek to kill Khamenei himself. Speaking to ABC News on Monday, Netanyahu neither denied nor confirmed media reports that US President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei. 'It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict,' Netanyahu insisted, adding that Israel was 'doing what we need to do'. The supreme leader has not left Iran since taking up the position and made his last foreign visit to North Korea in 1989 while still Iran's president. His movements are subject to the tightest security and secrecy. In a social media post on Tuesday, Trump claimed Washington was aware of Khamenei's whereabouts but that it didn't want him killed 'for now'. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' the US president wrote. 'He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.' Nuclear boomerang While his messaging has been contradictory and mixed, Trump appears to have welcomed Israeli military action as a means to drag Iran back to the negotiating table on US terms – which he has described as Tehran's 'unconditional surrender'. Analysts, however, have cautioned that any attempt to assassinate Khamenei could have the opposite effect, precipitating Iranian efforts to go nuclear and thereby working against the stated purpose of Israel's offensive. Over the years, the Islamic Republic has maintained a form of strategic ambiguity over its nuclear programme, which it has used as a bargaining chip in talks with world powers and as a warning to foes. According to Western intelligence assessments , this has involved reaching a higher degree of enrichment than is needed for civilian purposes but without actively seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Known for blending ideological rigidity with strategic pragmatism, Khamenei has shown a willingness to bend when the regime's survival is at stake, including on the nuclear dossier. He notably offered guarded endorsement of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers including the US, calculating that sanctions relief was necessary to stabilise the economy and cement his grip on power. More than a decade earlier, amid the fallout from the 2003 Iraq invasion, Iran's supreme leader had issued a fatwa, or religious edict, condemning nuclear and chemical weapons – though critics have questioned its real worth. 'The irony is that Khamenei, through his indecision and his supposed fatwa, has been one of the factors in Iran for not developing nuclear weapons,' said Rouzbeh Parsi, a Middle East scholar and senior lecturer at Lund University in Sweden. 'If he is removed, it will destroy all chances of resuming negotiations and guarantee that Iran goes for nuclear weapons.' Regime change The mere fact that assassinating the Iranian leader is part of the conversation is a measure of how far Israel has pushed its paradigm shift for the Middle East, with at least the tacit support of the Trump administration. According to Parsi, it also reflects the lack of a clear strategic objective for Israel's military operation. 'Ultimately, the political solution is either a negotiation with Tehran or a removal of the Islamic Republic,' he said. 'The Israelis have made clear they don't want any type of negotiation with the Iranian regime, but they also cannot bring about regime change without US help.' He added: 'The US could indeed destroy the Islamic Republic, which begs the question that these wars never answer beforehand, nor explain afterwards, namely: what would replace it?' In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Netanyahu suggested that 'regime change' could be the outcome of the Israeli strikes, while insisting that it would be for the Iranian people to bring this about. He claimed that '80 percent of the people would throw these theological thugs out' once they had realised the regime's weakness. Writing in Le Monde , Iran expert Farid Vahid said the 'rupture between Iran's people and the regime has grown so deep' the Islamic Republic can no longer count on patriotic sentiment to drum up support among the population. However, the Iranian opposition, both at home and in exile, remains riven by division, and while Persian-language television channels based abroad have broadcast images of groups shouting anti-Khamenei slogans, there have been no reports of mass protests. 'The idea that this ends in a popular uprising that changes the regime or gives power to someone in the Iranian opposition abroad has no basis in reality,' said Iran expert Arash Azizi, a senior fellow at Boston University, in an interview with AFP. Iran watchers say a more plausible outcome would be for elements within the regime to seek to wrest control from Iran's ageing supreme leader. 'Khamenei is at the twilight of his rule, at the age of 86, and already much of the daily command of the regime is not up to him but to various factions who are vying for the future,' said Azizi. 'This process was already underway, and the current war only accelerates it.' France24
Bloomberg
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
In Tehran, Iranians Brace for What's Next in Unpredictable War
Politics Middle East With their economy on its knees and a weakened leadership, people in the capital don't expect things to be the same again. It started with her neighbor frantically knocking on her front door panicking at the sound of explosions. Then she taped her windows to prevent them from shattering and packed an emergency backpack. By Tuesday, Neda was on a gridlocked highway, joining thousands of other Tehranis trying to flee the Iranian capital. Their aim was to find somewhere more remote where they wouldn't be near any of the hundreds of sites that Israel might target.
France 24
18-06-2025
- Politics
- France 24
Ali Khamenei: Backed into a corner, Iran's ruthless leader faces fight for survival
Iran 's undisputed leader since 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has weathered decades of international sanctions, near-constant regional tensions and protest movements he ruthlessly suppressed to maintain his iron grip on the Islamic Republic. Israel's unprecedented strikes on nuclear, military and infrastructure targets in Iran mark by far his most serious crisis yet, threatening both the clerical regime he has led for the past 36 years and his own survival. In five days of bombardment, Israel has decapitated Iran's top military brass, repeatedly struck its main nuclear sites, and killed many of Khamenei's closest aides. It has also bombed other parts of the state and security apparatus as well as key energy infrastructure, triggering an exodus of Tehranis from the capital. 06:59 While Iran has responded with deadly strikes on Israeli cities, the mismatch in firepower has left Tehran at the mercy of the Israeli air force, facing the possibility of a US intervention on Israel's side – and with no major allies to call upon. Echoes of Iraq Many Iranians will feel they have been there before. The Islamic Republic was just one year old in 1980 when it was dragged into a gruesome eight-year war by Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein – who at the time enjoyed the backing of most Western and regional powers. The enduring trauma of the Iran-Iraq war persuaded Khamenei to build a coalition of proxy forces in the region that would engage in asymmetrical warfare and, crucially, deter Iran's foes from directly attacking its territory. For further deterrence, the Islamic Republic also rushed to build up its missile and drone manufacturing capability, acquiring what was believed to be the largest missile arsenal in the region. Those deterrents have long allowed the hardline ruler to keep up his rhetoric of confrontation with the US and project an image of power to rival Israel's, while keeping conflict away from Iran's borders and giving the regime a free hand to crack down on dissent. Since the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, however, Khamenei has looked on impotently as his key allies – Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, Yemen's Houthis and Syria's Bashar al-Assad – have been defanged, diminished or toppled, one by one. The demise of the 'Axis of Resistance' has effectively stripped Khamenei's regime of its outer defences, allowing Israel to bring the fight directly to Tehran. Iran's air defences took a first pummelling when the two bitter foes exchanged missile strikes last October. With Israeli jets now in control of the Iranian air space, and free to track down Iranian missile launchers, it is unclear how long the Islamic Republic's other key deterrent – its ballistic missiles arsenal – can sustain the fighting. 'We won't take him out – for now' Khamenei, 86, has remained typically defiant in the face of the Israeli onslaught, stating on Wednesday in a post on X: 'We must give a strong response to the terrorist Zionist regime. We will show the Zionists no mercy.' Israel's success in killing several of his top aides, however, shows just how far Israel has penetrated Iranian defences and intelligence. It has also raised the question of whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could give an order to seek to kill Khamenei himself. Speaking to ABC News on Monday, Netanyahu neither denied nor confirmed media reports that US President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei. 'It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict,' Netanyahu insisted, adding that Israel was 'doing what we need to do'. The supreme leader has not left Iran since taking up the position and made his last foreign visit to North Korea in 1989 while still Iran's president. His movements are subject to the tightest security and secrecy. In a social media post on Tuesday, Trump claimed Washington was aware of Khamenei's whereabouts but that it didn't want him killed 'for now'. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' the US president wrote. 'He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.' Nuclear boomerang While his messaging has been contradictory and mixed, Trump appears to have welcomed Israeli military action as a means to drag Iran back to the negotiating table on US terms – which he has described as Tehran's 'unconditional surrender'. Analysts, however, have cautioned that any attempt to assassinate Khamenei could have the opposite effect, precipitating Iranian efforts to go nuclear and thereby working against the stated purpose of Israel's offensive. 11:50 Over the years, the Islamic Republic has maintained a form of strategic ambiguity over its nuclear programme, which it has used as a bargaining chip in talks with world powers and as a warning to foes. According to Western intelligence assessments, this has involved reaching a higher degree of enrichment than is needed for civilian purposes but without actively seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Known for blending ideological rigidity with strategic pragmatism, Khamenei has shown a willingness to bend when the regime's survival is at stake, including on the nuclear dossier. He notably offered guarded endorsement of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers including the US, calculating that sanctions relief was necessary to stabilise the economy and cement his grip on power. More than a decade earlier, amid the fallout from the 2003 Iraq invasion, Iran's supreme leader had issued a fatwa, or religious edict, condemning nuclear and chemical weapons – though critics have questioned its real worth. 'The irony is that Khamenei, through his indecision and his supposed fatwa, has been one of the factors in Iran for not developing nuclear weapons,' said Rouzbeh Parsi, a Middle East scholar and senior lecturer at Lund University in Sweden. 'If he is removed, it will destroy all chances of resuming negotiations and guarantee that Iran goes for nuclear weapons.' Regime change The mere fact that assassinating the Iranian leader is part of the conversation is a measure of how far Israel has pushed its paradigm shift for the Middle East, with at least the tacit support of the Trump administration. According to Parsi, it also reflects the lack of a clear strategic objective for Israel's military operation. 'Ultimately, the political solution is either a negotiation with Tehran or a removal of the Islamic Republic,' he said. 'The Israelis have made clear they don't want any type of negotiation with the Iranian regime, but they also cannot bring about regime change without US help.' He added: 'The US could indeed destroy the Islamic Republic, which begs the question that these wars never answer beforehand, nor explain afterwards, namely: what would replace it?' In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Netanyahu suggested that 'regime change' could be the outcome of the Israeli strikes, while insisting that it would be for the Iranian people to bring this about. He claimed that '80 percent of the people would throw these theological thugs out' once they had realised the regime's weakness. Writing in Le Monde, Iran expert Farid Vahid said the 'rupture between Iran's people and the regime has grown so deep' the Islamic Republic can no longer count on patriotic sentiment to drum up support among the population. However, the Iranian opposition, both at home and in exile, remains riven by division, and while Persian-language television channels based abroad have broadcast images of groups shouting anti-Khamenei slogans, there have been no reports of mass protests. 'The idea that this ends in a popular uprising that changes the regime or gives power to someone in the Iranian opposition abroad has no basis in reality,' said Iran expert Arash Azizi, a senior fellow at Boston University, in an interview with AFP. Iran watchers say a more plausible outcome would be for elements within the regime to seek to wrest control from Iran's ageing supreme leader. 'Khamenei is at the twilight of his rule, at the age of 86, and already much of the daily command of the regime is not up to him but to various factions who are vying for the future,' said Azizi. 'This process was already underway, and the current war only accelerates it.'
