Latest news with #Tellimer
Khaleej Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Turkish assets slide as political crackdown widens
Turkey's international bonds and lira currency weakened on Monday, and the cost of insuring government debt against default rose, following weekend detentions of opposition mayors. The detentions, which prosecutors say are part of anti-corruption investigations, are seen by the opposition and some foreign leaders as an effort by President Tayyip Erdogan to weaken the Republic People's Party (CHP). Jamie Fallon of Tellimer said the detentions had "fuelled fears around the rule of law and political instability". Turkish assets are notably sensitive to domestic politics, with foreign investors crowding back in after Erdogan's return to orthodox economic policies in 2023, but prepared to ditch them if the latest political developments impact those policies - or the economy more broadly. The lira slid by some 0.2% to beyond 40 against the dollar, before clawing back some of the losses, to trade at 39.99 at 1025 GMT, still weaker than its close on Friday. Turkey's international dollar bonds also slid, with the 2045 maturity shedding nearly 1 cent to be bid at 85 cents on the dollar. And the country's five-year credit default swap, an indication of the cost of insuring its debt against default, widened by 13 basis points from Friday's close to 292 bps. The mayors of the big southern cities of Adana, Adiyaman and Antalya were taken into custody as part of a corruption investigation, expanding a months-long legal crackdown well beyond its origins in Istanbul. Istanbul's benchmark BIST 100 index was down 1.25% at 1050 GMT. The banking index was down 0.58% at the same time, after an earlier drop of 1.68%. The lira has weakened some 11% so far this year on concerns over domestic politics and conflicts in neighbouring countries. There are expectations that Turkey's central bank would begin cutting rates again this month, but the lira's weakness — and the economic impact of the political developments — has thrown that prospect into question. Hilmi Yavas, an Istanbul-based independent macro strategist, said the bank's efforts to stabilide the economy were already under pressure. "High real interest rates still seem necessary to contain domestic demand for foreign currency, while services inflation remains more elevated than a central banker would find comfortable," Yavas said. "Meanwhile, tight monetary policy is placing increasing strain on the real economy."
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Turkish assets slide as political crackdown widens
ISTANBUL/LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - Turkey's international bonds and lira currency weakened on Monday, and the cost of insuring government debt against default rose, following weekend detentions of opposition mayors. The detentions, which prosecutors say are part of anti-corruption investigations, are seen by the opposition and some foreign leaders as an effort by President Tayyip Erdogan to weaken the Republic People's Party (CHP). Jamie Fallon of Tellimer said the detentions had "fuelled fears around the rule of law and political instability". Turkish assets are notably sensitive to domestic politics, with foreign investors crowding back in after Erdogan's return to orthodox economic policies in 2023, but prepared to ditch them if the latest political developments impact those policies - or the economy more broadly. The lira slid by some 0.2% to beyond 40 against the dollar, before clawing back some of the losses, to trade at 39.99 at 1025 GMT, still weaker than its close on Friday. Turkey's international dollar bonds also slid, with the 2045 maturity shedding nearly 1 cent to be bid at 85 cents on the dollar. And the country's 5-year credit default swap, an indication of the cost of insuring its debt against default, widened by 13 basis points from Friday's close to 292 bps. The mayors of the big southern cities of Adana, Adiyaman and Antalya were taken into custody as part of a corruption investigation, expanding a months-long legal crackdown well beyond its origins in Istanbul. Istanbul's benchmark BIST 100 index (.XU100), opens new tab was down 1.25% at 1050 GMT. The banking index (.XBANK), opens new tab was down 0.58% at the same time, after an earlier drop of 1.68%. The lira has weakened some 11% so far this year on concerns over domestic politics and conflicts in neighbouring countries. There are expectations that Turkey's central bank would begin cutting rates again this month, but the lira's weakness - and the economic impact of the political developments - has thrown that prospect into question. Hilmi Yavas, an Istanbul-based independent macro strategist, said the bank's efforts to stabilize the economy were already under pressure. "High real interest rates still seem necessary to contain domestic demand for foreign currency, while services inflation remains more elevated than a central banker would find comfortable," Yavas said. "Meanwhile, tight monetary policy is placing increasing strain on the real economy."
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Business Standard
22-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Israel's equity stocks rise on hopes US strikes may ease Iran conflict
Middle Eastern stocks rose on Sunday, led by Israel and Egypt, as the region's traders bet the US strikes on Iran may accelerate the end of the conflict between the country and Israel. Israel's TA-35 benchmark index advanced 1.5 per cent, posting a sixth successive day of gains and staying on course for the biggest quarterly advance since 2003. Egypt's equity benchmark posted a 2.7 per cent jump. Other markets in the region recorded modest gains. The Boursa Kuwait Premier Market Index and the MSX30 Index in Muscat added 0.4 per cent each. Qatar's benchmark was 0.2 per cent higher. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index fell 0.3 per cent. 'Markets are focused on whether the war spreads to other countries and there is no evidence of that as yet,' said Hasnain Malik, a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai. 'The benign interpretation is that the US intervention will accelerate the end of the war. That, of course, remains to be seen.' In Israel, bank shares accounted for most of the gains, while defense supplier Elbit Systems Inc. dropped more than 2 per cent. 'The market is displaying cautious optimism against the backdrop of the security reality,' Yaniv Pagot, vice president of trading at Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, said in a note. 'The increases reflect an improvement in the risk premium of the State of Israel.' Irrespective of early reaction in the Middle East, global investors are bracing for market turbulence that may trigger a dash into haven assets on Monday. Money managers are now watching out for Iran's potential response, including whether it may attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz — a key passage for oil and gas — and whether it attacks US assets in the region. 'Short-term, markets such as crude oil will pivot on whether Iran retaliates and widens the war in a way that impacts oil supply versus backing down and offering concessions on its nuclear program,' Tellimer's Malik said. 'The biggest risk to the region is a collapse of the regime in Iran and a descent into Syrian-style civil war. US intervention may increase the probability of this.'
The National
22-06-2025
- Business
- The National
Gulf markets hold steady despite US entry into Israel-Iran war
Gulf stock markets held steady on Sunday after the US struck three nuclear sites in Iran in overnight attacks, escalating the Israel-Iran war that threatens to disrupt energy supplies from the oil-rich region. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul gave up early gains and its main index ended traded 0.34 per cent lower. Qatar's main index closed up 0.19 per cent, while the main market in Kuwait ended the session 1.81 per cent higher on Sunday. Bahrain's bourse closed up 0.27 per cent, while the main index on the Muscat bourse reversed early losses to end 0.42 per cent higher. "Markets are focused on whether the war spreads to other countries and there is no evidence of that as yet," Hasnain Malik, head of emerging and frontier market investment strategy at Tellimer, told The National. "The benign interpretation is that the US intervention will accelerate the end of the war. That, of course, remains to be seen." Investor attention is now centred on the risk of Iranian retaliation, particularly towards US assets, regional energy infrastructure, and maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Iridium Advisor said in a note on Sunday morning. " GCC investor sentiment will be shaped by rising geopolitical risk following US air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites," it said. "While broad financial disruption appears unlikely, markets will monitor liquidity conditions. For now, the market impact will hinge more on the nature and timing of Tehran's response than the strikes themselves." Meanwhile, the Tel Aviv stock market also gained on Sunday, with the TA-125 index up 0.98 per cent and TA-35 up 0.75. The US military bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, President Donald Trump said on Saturday night, calling the attacks a "spectacular military success". "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated," he said. He also warned of the possibility of further attacks, saying there were "many targets left". "Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." Iran retaliated on Sunday morning with about 25 missiles, authorities said. The war, which began on June 13 following air strikes by Israel on Tehran, has rattled investors. The UAE markets ended higher last week, with the Dubai Financial Market up 1.5 per cent at the close of session and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange gaining 0.95 per cent at market close. Global stocks ended last week on a mixed note, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite ending the session on Friday lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly higher. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 closed 0.2 per cent lower, while Paris' CAC 40 gained 0.5 per cent. Frankfurt's DAX was up 1.3 per cent. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index edged 1.3 per cent higher and Shanghai's composite was down 0.07 per cent, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.2 per cent.
Business Insider
15-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
The African country suffering the most from Iran's and Israel's missile strikes
The Middle East for the last few years has been no stranger to missile strikes, as tensions in the region continue to escalate with no real end in sight. The effects of these hostilities have unfortunately found their way into Africa, particularly countries located in the MENA region. Currently, Egypt is feeling the most heat from the recent conflict between Israel and Iran. Tensions in the Middle East are impacting nearby regions, particularly Egypt in Africa. Egypt's economy is severely affected, with its stock index experiencing dramatic losses. Regional instability has led to a delayed inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum, affecting tourism revenue. As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate into outright military war, Egypt has emerged as the African country facing the most immediate economic consequences. With regional instability reverberating across markets, Egypt's banking industry has been particularly severely affected, worsening an already weak economic situation. On Friday, Egypt's major stock index performed the worst, at one point recording the worst losses in five years. Also the country's currency value dropped below the 50-per-dollar threshold. 'It is no surprise that with an open-ended Israel-Iran shooting war under way, that regional markets have been pounded too, as far as Egypt, which has seen gas supplies from Israel cut off,' said Hasnain Malik, a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai. 'The spike in oil price reflects the risk of Iranian exports going offline but not serious disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil falls.' Futhermore, Egypt's major stock index, the EGX 30, fell as much as 7.7% on the first day of trading since the war erupted. All 31 publicly traded businesses reported losses while the pound traded as weak as 50.6 units per dollar, according to local-bank quotes, as per Bloomberg. Beyond the financial markets, the turmoil has hampered Egypt's cultural and tourist goals. The government postponed the long-awaited opening of the $1 billion Grand Egyptian Museum, which has been in the works for over two decades and is located barely a mile from the Giza Pyramids. The ceremony, which was scheduled to begin formally on July 3, has been pushed back until the fourth quarter, with authorities citing "current regional developments" as the cause, another report by Bloomberg highlighted. This delay is more than just symbolic; it stifles a vital cash stream for Egypt's tourist industry, which has long been a foundation of the national economy. The Grand Egyptian Museum is expected to draw up to 5 million visitors yearly, resulting in a significant increase in foreign currency inflows and employment creation. Israeli and Iranian military attacks have been fierce for the third day in a row. Targeting military, nuclear, and energy facilities in places including Tehran, Natanz, and Isfahan, Israel conducted a series of bombings deep into Iranian territory, purportedly killing key commanders and scientists and damaging missile installations. Iran responded by attacking Israel with more than 200 ballistic missiles and drones as part of what it named Operation True Promise III. Although many were stopped by Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow systems, dozens managed to get past defenses and hit Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, and other locations, killing at least 10–15 Israeli civilians and injuring hundreds more. The U.S., Russia, China, and the EU have all called for de-escalation, but with both Israel and Iran signaling determination to press on, fears of a wider regional war are growing. Analysts warn that if Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Iranian allies in Iraq and Yemen, become more involved, the situation could spiral beyond control.
