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Donald Trump's 90-Day Tariff Pause Is Ending. What Happens Next?
Donald Trump's 90-Day Tariff Pause Is Ending. What Happens Next?

NDTV

time08-07-2025

  • Business
  • NDTV

Donald Trump's 90-Day Tariff Pause Is Ending. What Happens Next?

In late April, shortly after President Trump's announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs sent markets reeling, the White House announced a 90-day pause on when those tariffs would go into effect. That pause is about to end and while the Trump administration has announced a few tentative trade agreements - including one with the UK and another with Vietnam - they're nowhere near 90. On today's Big Take podcast, Bloomberg's Brendan Murray and host David Gura discuss what the White House has accomplished, what it hasn't and where the trade war goes from here. Here is a lightly edited transcript of the conversation: David Gura: President Trump's trade war began in earnest in April, when he announced a raft of new tariffs. Donald Trump: Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years, but it is not going to happen anymore. Gura: Trump said he'd impose "reciprocal" tariffs - across-the-board levies on dozens of trading partners, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea and the United Kingdom. Trump: "Reciprocal." That means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can't get any simpler than that. Gura: But after that announcement sparked market turbulence, the president changed course. He announced a 90-day pause on the implementation of those tariffs. On Fox Business, Trump's trade advisor, Peter Navarro, presented it as an opportunity for those trading partners to negotiate: Peter Navarro: So, we're going to run 90 deals in 90 days- is possible. The boss is going to be the chief negotiator. Nothing is done without him looking very carefully at it. Gura: Well, that pause is about to end on Wednesday. And while the Trump administration has announced a few tentative trade agreements, including one with the UK and another with Vietnam, they're nowhere near 90. So, over the weekend, on CNN's State of the Union, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out what's likely to happen next. Scott Bessent: President Trump is going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don't move things along, then on August 1, you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level. Gura: Brendan Murray oversees Bloomberg's trade coverage, and he says it looks like August 1 is the new July 9: Brendan Murray: You know, 90 days was always an arbitrary sort of number that they just pulled out of the air. Gura: The move is in keeping with how the White House has waged this trade war from the very beginning: Moving deadlines, putting tariffs in place, then taking them off and adjusting tariff levels with no explanation. Murray: It feels like it's a little bit of Groundhog Day every day on the trade beat to some extent- is that we're gonna go through this all over again. Gura: I'm David Gura, and this is The Big Take, from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, as President Trump's 90-day pause on his sweeping reciprocal tariffs comes to an end, what comes next? What the White House has accomplished, what it hasn't, and where the trade war goes from here. Gura: The problem with counting how many trade deals the White House has done is it depends on how you define the word "deal." Bloomberg's Brendan Murray says the Trump administration reached an agreement with the United Kingdom, and President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam on social media, where, on Monday afternoon, the president also said he'd impose 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea and a 30% tariff on imports from South Africa. But as the end of this 90-day pause nears, Brendan says we haven't seen the fine print, and we don't know the status of other negotiations. Gura: From your vantage point, how much has been accomplished here over the course of these 80-plus days? Murray: Well, it's hard to say how far along the talks are with all of these other countries, but the main ones, China, Mexico, Canada - those are the three biggest US trading partners - those are all still in flux, and we don't know where those are headed. The president has said that, you know, he is going to stick to his auto tariffs and his steel tariffs and aluminum tariffs, and those are really important to Canada and Mexico, and they're going to try to negotiate those away. Now the other big deal, that really means more than any of those three, is one with the European Union. We think of Canada, China, Mexico as the biggest US trading partners, but the European Union as a block is really the biggest and the most integrated when it comes to goods trade, services trade and investment that goes back and forth between the two economies. Gura: How hard and fast is this deadline on Wednesday? We heard from the president last week indicating that he didn't intend to blow past it or offer any kind of extension. What's the latest from him and his administration on the hard and fastness of that July 9 deadline? Murray: Well as we're getting closer to that, they're inserting some wiggle room in there. Now they the thinking is, and, and what we've heard from some of the folks in the administration is that they've got a bottleneck of these deals that are just on the very edge of being resolved and being signed but they can't get 'em all over the line before, July 9, the original deadline. So it seems like August 1st is becoming the new deadline. None of this is a surprise to anybody who watches trade negotiations. These are complicated deals that have to be done back and forth between capitals over different time zones, and they just take a long time and they involve complicated things that countries just aren't going to give up overnight. And so, we've seen the 90 deals in 90 days come down to maybe a half dozen deals in probably a hundred letters. Gura: Broad strokes, what do you expect to play out between now and July 9th or August 1, what are we likely to get from the White House? Sort of how should we think about or read what's gonna be in, in letters or, or deal announcements to get a sense of, of what's actually in these deals and agreements. Murray: I think what we're gonna see, if they release the deals at all, we're going to see how basic they are, how broad they are, how lacking in concrete commitments. There's probably going to be some agreements to purchase a certain amount of US exports of agriculture goods, for instance, or Boeing airplanes. These are more commercial arrangements than they are trade, trade deals. But every country is now gonna be faced with a 10% tariff on their exports to the US, at least. That's going to be across the board. There doesn't seem to be any negotiating that away. So, in effect, president Trump is raising this tariff wall around the US economy, over which countries will have to just deal with, or there'll be retaliation. Gura: Brendan, when you look at the negotiations between the US and these major trading partners, how much are the points of contention the same in all of those talks? Murray: I think from the US' perspective, there are several issues that bother them. Among the biggest, and Trump has been pretty vocal about how he doesn't like that you can't buy Ford pickup trucks in Tokyo, or you don't see Chevys driving around Berlin. So, cars are one of the sort of regular sticking points with President Trump. He also is trying to crack down on the proliferation of Chinese products everywhere. And that could be everything from raw materials like steel to things like technological components that turn up in a lot of consumer items that we see. The Trump administration takes real issue with agriculture barriers to other countries' markets. India has very high protections around its agriculture industry where there's a big constituency of the Modi government that are subsistence farmers, and they would be, you know, economically devastated if the agriculture market of India were opened to the global trading system. So, those are barriers that are unlikely to go down anytime soon or in any way that's significant. And then, then there are a whole host of other issues that fall under this category of non-tariff barriers. And these are things like the tax system in the European Union or the way businesses are regulated in a country like South Korea. Gura: Brendan, over the weekend, President Trump said he would charge an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with the anti-American policy of the BRICS nations' - this is a group led by Brazil, Russia, India and China. They were meeting over the weekend. What does that say just about what's motivating this trade war? What's motivating the levies that the president is putting in place? Murray: I think it just illustrates how broadly the president thinks he can use tariffs to influence not just the trading relationships the US has with another country but geo-economic forces that are happening around him. Ironically, the BRICS organisation is growing. And it's growing because of the vacuum of the- what they perceive as the vacuum of the leadership of that the US has had over the years to steering the global economy, steering the global order in a certain direction. So, the BRICS now see themselves as a source of stability in the world, the ones you can trust, the ones you can count on, versus President Trump who seems to be filling the role of the sort of chief disruptor of the global economy. Gura:The US Court of International Trade blocked many of the tariffs that President Trump had threatened or imposed on other countries. I asked Brendan how that decision, which the administration has appealed, has affected the White House's negotiations. Murray: I think what it's done is slowed a lot of them down. Countries would be looking at that going, that's our get out of tariff free card. And they would be looking at the date of that next court hearing going, if we can just hold out that long, then perhaps the laws of the United States will strike down his authority to use those tariffs and we'll be in a completely different world. Gura: In the meantime, the Trump administration is leaning more heavily on tariffs not on countries, but on specific sectors. Murray: Those sectoral tariffs can be used very broadly. For example, the steel aluminum tariffs. For example, the steel and aluminum tariffs that he rolled out a few months ago were recently expanded to include appliances, washing machines - the kinds of things that everyday Americans go to Home Depot and buy because they contain steel and aluminum. So, you can use these sectoral tariffs very broadly. You can hit a lot of imports with them. And so, on these two separate tracks, President Trump is trying to build this tariff wall around the US economy, and he can do so with either one. There are other sectoral tariffs coming for pharmaceuticals, which the European Union is a big exporter of. There are sectoral tariffs coming for semiconductors. Now, imagine how broadly, you could define what is contained in a semiconductor. You could put the tariff on the technical tiny little chip that is what we think of as a semiconductor. Or you could put it on a phone, which contains semiconductors. So, either way, the administration feels like it's going to rewire the global economy one way or the other and that president has what they believe is the authority to do that. Gura: After the break, the impact the threat of President Trump's tariffs has already had on the global economy. Gura: Bloomberg's global trade editor, Brendan Murray has covered his fair share of trade negotiations. And I wanted to know how these talks stack up. Murray: These negotiations are different because they're on this fast track. Trade negotiations typically take years, and they go chapter by chapter, line by line. So, I think it's the speed and the complexity that are much different. They're much less complex and they're much faster. And they're also non-binding. They will die with a new administration from a different party that doesn't follow the same trade policies that the current administration does. So they're, they're not complex. They're fast and they don't have a lot of longevity built into them. Gura: I want to turn now to the effects these tariffs, these trade talks have had on the economy so far. What, what have we seen in the data as this has all progressed? Murray: Well, the data on trade itself has been kind of all over the place. But the broad trend is trade is holding up pretty well. We've seen not as much of an impact on inflation data. The big worry among economists is that tariffs will cause inflation. But we haven't seen that pressure appear in the data yet. So, there's a bit of a disconnect between the administration, which says, look, we don't have any inflation. And the people who are actually paying those tariff bills who say, these tariffs are killing me and my, I'm going to go out of business if I don't raise my prices or someone lowers the tariffs. So, there's a school of thought, and it's yet to be borne out in the data. So we don't know yet that this is going to appear as inflation in later this year, early next year, as those costs feed through into the larger US economy. That's what we're hearing from the Federal Reserve as well. They're sitting on their hands trying to figure out how this is going to play out, and they don't know if it's going to be a benign scenario or if it's going to be rampant inflation. They are waiting, listening to their contacts across the Fed districts and trying to figure out what the actual implication's going to be. Gura: Brendan, lastly, as we look for these letters, maybe deal announcements, what is your advice on what we should watch for, maybe who we should listen to, as these trade talks continue and these tariffs go into effect? Murray: I think we should look very closely at how the world responds to what is essentially a unilateral trade war on each of their economies. Will we see retaliation? So far we've only seen it put a little bit of tariffs on US exports. But for the most part, the world has sat through the last three months and said, OK, you're threatening me with tariffs. Let's negotiate. And there hasn't been a huge backlash - a collective backlash - against the US's threats to those economies. China has been the exception. China is fighting back in different ways. But I think the key thing to watch is how countries respond and whether we see the world just take it and adjust to it and deal with it, or whether we see the sort building of retaliation in a collective way where countries band together and say, we can't sit back and take this for very long. Otherwise, our own domestic political situations are going to get hairy.

Trump Sees Chance to De-Escalate Mideast War After Iran Response
Trump Sees Chance to De-Escalate Mideast War After Iran Response

Mint

time25-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Mint

Trump Sees Chance to De-Escalate Mideast War After Iran Response

President Donald Trump raised hopes of de-escalating the Middle East conflict after Iran's strike against a US base, saying the attack was 'very weak' and telegraphed ahead of time by Tehran. 'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,' the president said in a social media post Monday. 'Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.' Iran fired missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar earlier Monday after promising it would respond 'proportionately and decisively' to the weekend bombing by US forces of three nuclear facilities. Qatar said the missile barrage was intercepted and the base had been evacuated in advance. Sign up for our breaking news alerts for the latest developments on the Israel-Iran war. Oil plunged on relief that Tehran's limited response offered the prospect of easing tensions in the conflict, which began 10 days ago when Israel attacked Iran's nuclear and missile installations and military leaders. Iran has responded with several days of missile strikes on Israel. Trump said Iran fired 14 missiles toward the Qatar base, of which '13 were knocked down, and 1 was 'set free,' because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction.' The president added: 'Most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.' Follow The Big Take daily podcast wherever you listen. In another post, moments later, he added: 'CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT'S TIME FOR PEACE!' Trump's remarks stand in sharp contrast with his increasingly belligerent rhetoric during the past few days. After ordering the weekend bunker-buster bombing he hinted at 'regime change' in Iran, and said that any retaliation by Tehran would be met by 'FAR GREATER' force. But the limited nature of Iran's missile salvo and the advance warning that was provided appear to have been welcomed by the president as a potential off-ramp. Iran's move on Monday appeared to be 'a largely symbolic retaliation,' said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics' chief emerging-market economist. 'Plenty of warning was given — Qatar shut its airspace and the US issued warnings to citizens.' Trump earlier said the nuclear sites targeted by the US were totally destroyed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes had the 'limited' objective of eliminating Iran's atomic program. Officials have said it's too early to definitively assess damage. Al Udeid is the regional headquarters for US Central Command, which oversees the American military in the region, and home to several thousand US service-members. Some of Qatar's Gulf Arab neighbors including Bahrain, which hosts a US naval base, and the United Arab Emirates also closed their airspace late Monday as a precaution, though in most cases it was reopened within hours. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia issued statements condemning the Iranian attack. Oil prices began to slide immediately after reports of the strike, and extended losses after Trump's latest post. Crude had previously climbed during the 10-day conflict, amid concerns that Iran could target oil facilities or shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy corridor. But Brent had erased a large chunk of that increase by 4:30 p.m. in New York, plunging almost 9% on the day. US stocks also climbed, reversing earlier losses. Behind those market moves were reports that Iran's missile launch had been telegraphed. The US and its allies were expecting the strike, according to a person familiar with Western intelligence assessments. US diplomatic missions advised Doha-based residents earlier in the day to shelter in place 'until further notice.' Iranian officials also suggested the move had a symbolic element. The number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs deployed by the US against the nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and the Qatar strike 'poses no danger' to a 'friendly and brotherly country,' the state-run IRNA news agency said. Israel says its war against Iran aims to prevent the country from acquiring atomic weapons, a risk also cited by Trump to justify US involvement. Iran denies ever having sought a nuclear bomb. Before the Israeli attack on June 13, American and Iranian negotiators had held several rounds of talks aimed at a new agreement on curtailing Iran's program — to replace the 2015 nuclear deal which Trump abandoned during his first term. Since then, Trump has alternated between military threats and hints of renewed diplomacy. His envoy in the earlier negotiations, Steve Witkoff, has been in contact with Iran since the US strikes, CNN reported Monday. Tehran has said it won't rejoin talks while under attack. Israel ratcheted up strikes on various Iranian targets earlier on Monday, and the Israeli military warned residents of Tehran to expect more in the coming days. Iran also fired several missiles at Israel. With assistance from Dana Khraiche, Golnar Motevalli, Eltaf Najafizada and Kate Sullivan.

Boeing Returns to Crisis-Mode as India Crash Poses New Test
Boeing Returns to Crisis-Mode as India Crash Poses New Test

Boston Globe

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • Boston Globe

Boeing Returns to Crisis-Mode as India Crash Poses New Test

Advertisement Boeing shares fell 2.2% at 9:48 am in New York, as the uncertainty sparked by tragedy continued to concern investors. Only one passenger out of the 242 people on board survived the accident, which once again associated the planemaker with safety concerns. Airlines around the globe meanwhile waited to to see if regulators would demand new inspections of 787 Dreamliner fleet, or even a grounding, though the cause of the crash remains unknown for now. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Follow The Big Take daily podcast wherever you listen. 'It's a classic moment of crisis management and fast response: getting out there and sending teams to understand what happened, and just being there to reassure people,' aerospace consultant Richard Aboulafia said of the initial tasks for Boeing. 'A lot of life is just showing up.' Advertisement Ortberg and Boeing commercial aircraft head Stephanie Pope spent the initial hours after the tragedy reaching out to Air India executives, 'to offer our full support,' the CEO told employees in a memo viewed by Bloomberg. The Boeing executives also scrapped plans to travel to the Paris Air Show next week, where they'd been expected to showcase Boeing's progress and unveil orders. GE Aerospace, which made the engines on the doomed Dreamliner, canceled a June 17 investor day in Paris. 'Safety is foundational to our industry and is at the core of everything that we do,' Ortberg told employees. 'Please keep the families and loved ones affected by this accident in your thoughts.' It will take investigators weeks, if not months, to sort through the evidence and pinpoint what caused the first fatal crash for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. That's likely to keep the spotlight on Ortberg and Boeing's safety record, rather than the progress in the factories toward returning to pre-pandemic manufacturing rates. The Air India Dreamliner rolled down almost the entire length of an 11,000-foot runway before lumbering in the air, according to data from FlightRadar24. It only gained about 625 feet of altitude before sinking to the ground with its nose up, suggesting an aerodynamic stall, said aviation consultant Robert Mann. There were several puzzling aspects, including the configuration of the plane's flight surfaces and landing gear — which wasn't retracted. 'It was clearly a case where it was not accelerating and should have been obvious early enough you just reject the takeoff,' Mann said. Investigators will examine what might have caused the loss of power — whether from a bird strike, contaminated fuel, maintenance or pilot error, or some other factor. They say it's less likely the crash was related to the design and build of the 787 itself, which had been flying for Air India for more than 11 years. Advertisement Even still, for Boeing executives 'it's going to be a very tense 24 hours,' Aboulafia said. Ortberg, a low-key Midwesterner and engineer by training, came out of retirement last year to take on one of the tougher turnarounds in corporate America. Boeing was reeling from a near-catastrophe on an airborne 737 Max that spurred investigations, a crackdown by US regulators and a leadership exodus. He's kept a low public profile while preaching internally the importance of instilling a culture that emphasizes civility, respect and pride in workmanship. A working group of employees, formed to craft a statement of values, insisted on urging Boeing's workforce to 'give a damn.' Boeing customers like John Plueger, the chief executive officer of Air Lease, the largest US aircraft financier, have noticed a difference. The manufacturer's planes are arriving on time, after years of chronic delays, Plueger said in an interview last month. The company's jet factories and supply chain seem to have fewer disruptions and quality breakdowns, although they're still a concern, he said. The US planemaker even enjoyed the momentum of a record order placed by Qatar Airways during a visit by Trump, which propelled its May orders to the highest such tally in about 18 months. That momentum risks stalling as the company works to find out what role, if any, Boeing played in the crash. Follow Bloomberg India on WhatsApp for exclusive content and analysis on what billionaires, businesses and markets are doing. Sign up here. Advertisement The plane at the center of the tragedy was built during the early days of the 787 program, when Boeing was struggling with the consequences of a decision to offload much of the design and development work to suppliers in order to cut costs. The Dreamliner was the 26th to roll off Boeing's line, placing it among the 60 early aircraft that required extensive rework after they'd rolled out of Boeing's factory north of Seattle. The early turbulence of the 787 Dreamliner had faded as the carbon-composite jet settled into a mostly steady performer for carriers from ANA Holdings Inc. to United Airlines Holdings Inc. While Plueger has confidence in the company's leadership, 'Boeing is not completely out of the woods,' he said. 'It needs to consistently deliver and consistently demonstrate high quality production with no real glitches or problems or safety concerns.' --With assistance from Mary Schlangenstein. ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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