Latest news with #TheRealEismanPlaybook
CNBC
08-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
'Big Short' Trader Steve Eisman breaks down one reason investors shouldn't worry about deficits
Steve Eisman, the investor who called the subprime mortgage crisis, said fears of the massive size of the federal budget deficit may be overblown. President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed last week added to investor concerns about the fiscal trajectory of the country and future government borrowing. The bill includes trillions of dollars in tax cuts, increased spending for immigration enforcement and large cuts to funding for Medicaid and other social programs. The independent Congressional Budget Office has said the bill could add $3.4 trillion to the $36.2 trillion of outstanding U.S. debt over the next decade. 'The Real Eisman Playbook' podcast host and former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager takes solace in the 10-year Treasury yield, however, which would be expected to move in reaction to the country's worsening fiscal health. Instead, the benchmark rate has been directionless since December 2022, Eisman said. "If there was a real alternative to Treasury, then all of this stuff about the deficit is something that I would pay attention to. But as long as there's no alternative, there's nothing to talk about," Eisman said Monday on CNBC's " Fast Money ." US10Y 1Y mountain 10-year Treasury yield over the past year. Investors fear the tax-and-spending bill could put upward pressure on bond yields that already face inflationary concerns from rising tariffs. As the U.S. issues more debt to pay for the bill, increased supply could weigh on prices and raise yields. Widely-followed Eisman also isn't paying close attention to the valuation levels for stocks, which have risen significantly as the market recently climbed to record highs. "What broke the internet bubble was not valuation. What broke the internet bubble was a recession that caused some of these companies to go bankrupt and to do badly," Eisman said, referring to the late 1990s boom that came crashing down starting in 2000. "So until there's something really bad happening, like a trade war, which is still a possibility, the valuation is not something I really pay that much attention [to]."
CNBC
07-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
‘Big Short' Trader Steve Eisman: 10-year yield is evidence budget deficit size doesn't matter
Steve Eisman, Host of 'The Real Eisman Playbook', joins 'Fast Money' to discuss why he believes worry over the size of the U.S. budget deficit are over blown.
CNBC
17-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Investor Steve Eisman says we are headed for a global recession if Trump's tariffs spark a trade war
Steve Eisman, the investor who called and profited from the subprime mortgage crisis, said Tuesday President Donald Trump's tariffs against various countries could result in a global trade war and economic downturn, it's just impossible to handicap. "If there's a trade war, chances are we go into a global recession," Eisman said on CNBC's " Squawk Box ." "It reminds me a little bit about all the books I've read in life about World War I. Nobody wanted World War I, and yet, because of all the reciprocal treaties that existed between countries, they somehow ended up there. I don't think anybody wants a trade war, but it's certainly possible." Trump upended the global trading system and launched the U.S. toward greater protectionism during the early days of his second term. His 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs is still in effect, with Japan and the EU looking to strike a deal before the July 9 deadline, when higher trade duties — currently lowered to 10% by Trump in the interim to allow deals to be negotiated — could return with a vengeance. Canada was hit with a 25% tariff on autos and 50% duty on steel and aluminum imports . For China, Trump said a deal between the world's two largest economies is "done" with China supplying rare earths up front to the U.S. as part of a trade agreement. 'The Real Eisman Playbook' podcast host and former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager said it's extremely hard to predict how these high-stakes negotiations would unfold. "The negotiations of trade are incredibly complicated, with incredible special interests involved. It's complex. It takes time. Anything could happen. I just don't know how to handicap it all," Eisman said. The widely followed investor said he would be bullish on the U.S. markets and economy if a trade war is avoided. "If there's no trade war, I'm very positive in the US economy long term, and I'm would be very positive on the markets," he said.
CNBC
17-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
'Big Short' trader Steve Eisman: Iran conflict could potentially be 'extremely positive' for markets
Steve Eisman, 'The Real Eisman Playbook' podcast host and former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, impact of tariff uncertainty, Iran-Israel conflict and trade war on the markets, dealing with the deficit, and more.
CNBC
02-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman: Tariffs are my only concern
Investor Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame thinks it's dangerous to chase upside right now. "I have one concern, and that's tariffs. That's it," the former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC's " Fast Money " on Monday. "The market has gotten pretty complacent about it." Now podcast host of "The Real Eisman Playbook," Eisman contends Wall Street is underestimating the complexity of ongoing U.S. trade negotiations with China and Europe. "I just don't know how to handicap this because there's just too many balls in the air," said Eisman, who warns a full-blown trade war isn't off the table . It appears Wall Street shrugged off tariff risks on Monday. Stocks started the month higher — with the Dow Industrials coming back from a 416-point deficit earlier in the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rebounded from earlier losses and gained 0.7%. Eisman, who's known for successfully shorting the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, is still invested in the market despite his concern. "I am long only. I've taken some risk down, and I'm just sitting pat," he added. Meanwhile, Eisman is downplaying risks tied to balancing the massive U.S. budget deficit . From 'ridiculous' to 'absurd' "If there was an alternative to Treasurys, I might be worried more about the deficit because I'd say if we don't balance our budget, then people will sell our Treasurys and buy something else," Eisman said. "But what else are they going to buy? They're not going to buy bitcoin . It's not big enough. They're not going to buy Chinese bonds. That's ridiculous. They're not going to buy European or Italian bonds. That's absurd." He's also not worried about firming U.S. Treasury yields. "The 10-year [Treasury note yield] has gone up, but it's still 4.5%," said Eisman. "It's not like there's some crazy sell-off." The benchmark yield was at roughly 4.4% as of Monday night. What about the prospect of the 10-year yield topping 5%? "Relative to where it's been because rates were zero, it's high," Eisman said. "But relative to history, it's not that high." Sign up for the Spotlight newsletter, a hand-curated collection of video clips selected by CNBC's top editors and producers. Your daily recap of top business highlights and leading stories. Disclaimer
