Latest news with #TheSevensReport
CNBC
26-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
The latest stock market rally has another driver in its favor
The S & P 500 has been knocking on the door of its all-time high as trade tensions ease and the Iran-Israel conflict appears to be halted thanks to a ceasefire. And another counterintuitive driver could keep the gains going: neutral investor sentiment. Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, highlighted Thursday that investors haven't become overly bullish in the S & P 500's rebound from the April lows. He noted that the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey showed bulls at 33.2% — a slight decline from last month, while CNN's Fear/Greed Indicator sits at 60%, only "slightly in the 'Greed' range." On top of that, "Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment Survey has a Bulls/Bears spread of 10.2%, a still cautious reading," he said. Yet, the S & P 500 sits less than 1% below its record high set in February, following a more than 20% bounce since the April 8 close. .SPX bar 2025-04-08 SPX since April 8 "This implies that, despite the impressive rebound, it is not being matched with the type of bullish sentiment we'd typically associate with a near-term top. As such, this remains a somewhat 'hated' rally from an investor standpoint and that implies it can keep going," Essaye noted. To be sure, risks to the rally remain. If trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries break down, and/or tensions in the Middle East spike again, the rally to record levels could be derailed. There's also the Federal Reserve. Despite President Donald Trump's gripes with Chair Jerome Powell, expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have declined. BlackRock's Rick Rieder said Wednesday he only sees two decreases , starting in September. For now, "sentiment remains much more balanced and neutral than the price action would imply. That's a near-term positive as investors remain skeptical and that could well fuel continued upside as long as macro influences (tariffs, geopolitics, economic growth) remain broadly stable and don't give us any negative surprises," wrote Essaye.
The Age
10-06-2025
- Business
- The Age
ASX set to open above 8600 points amid bets on easing trade tensions
The Australian sharemarket is set to jump over the 8600 point mark, entering new heights after investors monitoring trade discussions between the US and China drove stocks higher on Wall Street amid bets on easing tensions between the world's two economic superpowers. ASX futures were up 32 points, or 0.4 per cent, at 8628 as of 6.02am AEST. The projected gains would come after the bourse hit an all-time high on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes for the high-level talks in London as officials had struck a positive tone after the first day of negotiations. The Australian dollar edged up 0.1 per cent to 65.25 US cents as of 6.12am AEST. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 was 0.5 per cent higher in late trading as the talks between the world's two largest economies carried into a second day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 91 points, or 0.2 per cent, with an hour remaining in trading, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.6 per cent higher. Stocks have roared higher since dropping roughly 20 per cent below their record two months ago, when President Donald Trump shocked financial markets with his announcement of stiff, wide-ranging tariffs. Much of the rally was due to hopes that Trump would lower his tariffs after reaching trade deals with countries around the world, and the S&P 500 is back within 1.8 per cent of its all-time high, which was set in February. It's getting to be time to see whether the hopes were warranted. The talks with China, which are likely covering a range of disagreements between the two countries, were 'going well,' US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday, adding he hoped they would end in the evening UK time — but that they could stretch into a third day if necessary. A Treasury official said discussions were now centred on ironing out technical details. 'We're going to try to finish things, so that's the objective,' Lutnick told reporters outside the meeting. 'I think we're working on all sorts of trade issues and I think the talks are going really, really well.' Tom Essaye at research firm The Sevens Report, said that 'any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where US and Chinese negotiations remain underway could meaningfully move markets today' before focus on Wall Street shifts to America's inflation figures for May on Wednesday US time.
Sydney Morning Herald
10-06-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
ASX set to open above 8600 points amid bets on easing trade tensions
The Australian sharemarket is set to jump over the 8600 point mark, entering new heights after investors monitoring trade discussions between the US and China drove stocks higher on Wall Street amid bets on easing tensions between the world's two economic superpowers. ASX futures were up 32 points, or 0.4 per cent, at 8628 as of 6.02am AEST. The projected gains would come after the bourse hit an all-time high on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes for the high-level talks in London as officials had struck a positive tone after the first day of negotiations. The Australian dollar edged up 0.1 per cent to 65.25 US cents as of 6.12am AEST. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 was 0.5 per cent higher in late trading as the talks between the world's two largest economies carried into a second day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 91 points, or 0.2 per cent, with an hour remaining in trading, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.6 per cent higher. Stocks have roared higher since dropping roughly 20 per cent below their record two months ago, when President Donald Trump shocked financial markets with his announcement of stiff, wide-ranging tariffs. Much of the rally was due to hopes that Trump would lower his tariffs after reaching trade deals with countries around the world, and the S&P 500 is back within 1.8 per cent of its all-time high, which was set in February. It's getting to be time to see whether the hopes were warranted. The talks with China, which are likely covering a range of disagreements between the two countries, were 'going well,' US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday, adding he hoped they would end in the evening UK time — but that they could stretch into a third day if necessary. A Treasury official said discussions were now centred on ironing out technical details. 'We're going to try to finish things, so that's the objective,' Lutnick told reporters outside the meeting. 'I think we're working on all sorts of trade issues and I think the talks are going really, really well.' Tom Essaye at research firm The Sevens Report, said that 'any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where US and Chinese negotiations remain underway could meaningfully move markets today' before focus on Wall Street shifts to America's inflation figures for May on Wednesday US time.
CNBC
15-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
S&P 500 is up 18% in 25 trading days — what typically happens next
Stocks could be primed for large gains. The S & P 500 has soared more than 18% since hitting a closing low on April 8. That marks only the fifth time since 1970 that the broad market index has surged that much over just 25 trading days. The latest move higher comes as global trade tensions ease, with the U.S. temporarily pausing or cutting steep tariffs on imported goods. This week, China and the U.S. agreed to lower levies for 90 days as both countries work to hammer out a broader trade agreement. If history is any guide, stocks should now see sizable gains over the coming year. The S & P 500 on average has risen about 30% in the 250 trading days that followed such a strong 25-trading-day run. That includes two instances when the benchmark popped more than 40%. Week to date, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are up 4% and 6.8%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also advanced nearly 2%. This week's rally puts the S & P 500 just 4.2% below its February all-time high. "What a switch, even for this market," wrote Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report. "A month ago (and even much later than that) the outlook for the economy was stagflation and the outlook for stocks was bordering on a 'lost decade' similar to what was witnessed in the 1970s and 2001-2009. But, oh how things have changed." But Essaye urged clients to stay cautious. "There is a lot of uncertainty to dismiss."
