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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500 hits all-time high - Now what?
S&P 500 hits all-time high - Now what? originally appeared on TheStreet. The naysayers were once again proven wrong. Despite an economy in turmoil, an uncertain Federal Reserve, and geopolitical unease, the S&P 500 has climbed the proverbial wall of worry and notched a new all-time high, surpassing levels last seen in February before President Trump's tariff announcements sent stocks reeling. The S&P 500's returns have been impressive, gaining more than 23% since Trump on April 9 switched gears and paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to hammer out trade deals. 💸. 📈 It's been an even more dramatic run for the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Since its early April low, that index has shot up more than 32%, largely on the back of AI powerhouses like Nvidia and Palantir, which have gained 64% and 95% over the period. The moves will likely have many scratching their heads, wondering what could happen next to the benchmark index. Fortunately, longtime analyst Ryan Detrick, chief strategist of Carson Group, has crunched the numbers to see what the S&P 500 historically has done in the wake of similar record-setting highs. The lifeblood of stock market returns is revenue and profit growth. The more sales and earnings, the more willing investors are to pay up for shares. Because of this, economic health is key to the S&P 500's performance. If households and businesses are expected to open their wallets more in the future, it's good for business, and that's good for stock market this year, worries that tariffs would spike inflation, crimping spending, led many to believe we were on the cusp of stagflation (inflation without GDP growth) or an outright recession. Those worries were compounded by the fact that the Fed hit the brakes on interest-rate cuts this year due to concerns that lower rates alongside tariffs would cause inflation to skyrocket. The concerns haven't fully disappeared, but they've retreated. While US GDP growth in the first quarter was slightly negative, most expect GDP to recover in the second quarter and for full-year GDP to be positive. The Federal Reserve pegs GDP growth at 1.4% this year, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking tool suggests second-quarter GDP increased by 3.4%. Of course, the GDPNow measure will change as more data arrive, but the Q2 numbers are likely to be solid. More Experts Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold TheStreet Stocks & Markets Podcast #8: Common Sense Investing With David Miller Veteran fund manager sends dire message on stocks If so, the US might sidestep a profit-busting economic reckoning, allowing investors to ratchet higher their models for corporate profit. Additionally, the stock market has become more optimistic about the likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is under intense pressure from Trump to cut rates, and a wobbly jobs market could mean the Fed won't stay sidelined much longer as long as inflation remains in check. In April, core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, the gauge favored by the Fed, showed prices rose 2.5% from one year ago. That's above the Fed's 2% target but arguably not overly concerning, given that the Fed cut rates by 1 percentage point last year when inflation was higher. The S&P 500 may have priced in a lot of the potential upside associated with a healthier-than-expected economy. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings multiple, a key valuation measure investors use, peaked at more than 22 in February 2025 when the S&P 500 last made a new high. After retreating to 19 in April, the runup in stock prices has outpaced upward earnings revisions, causing the S&P 500's p/e multiple to swell again. According to FactSet, the benchmark index trades with a forward one-year p/e multiple of nearly 22. Historically, when the S&P 500's p/e multiple has been this high, gains in the following year have been harder to come by, with a negative average return from 1971 through 2020. History certainly isn't a guarantee, but Ryan Detrick considered what'd happened in the past when stocks behaved similarly, and his study also suggests lackluster returns are possible from here. "The S&P 500 hasn't hit a new high in more than four months, but that could end any day now," wrote Detrick on X. "Turns out, when it goes between 4-12 months without a new [all-time high] and then hits one, the forward returns are quite muted. Not once up double digits a year later. Hmm." Detrick spotted four prior instances that met his criteria for similarity. The average return one year after notching the new high after not having a new high for between four and 12 months is just 4.4%, significantly below the stock market's average 11%-plus annual return over the past 50 years. The shorter-term returns are potentially more concerning, though. In his study the average 3-month and 6-month returns for the S&P 500 were negative 5% and negative 1.3%, respectively. Of course, anything can happen. Much will depend on what actually happens with inflation, jobs, the Fed, and trade deals. Still, the data may suggest that investors should temper their outlook, at least for now. It's not all bad news for most investors, though. Remember, stock market weakness can provide a great opportunity to buy the dip on the market or individual stocks. Just ask anyone who bought stocks in April.S&P 500 hits all-time high - Now what? first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 27, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 27, 2025, where it first appeared. Connectez-vous pour accéder à votre portefeuille
Miami Herald
5 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran trader raises eyebrows with comments on Mideast, economy
Great googa-looga, what would The Temptations say today? Back in 1970 the iconic Motown group summed up their view of the world in their hit tune "Ball of Confusion," singing about "segregation, determination, demonstration, integration, aggravation, humiliation, and obligation to our nation." Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Bear in mind, this was all before the internet, smartphones, artificial intelligence and Elon Musk. Now, the confusion has multiplied astronomically since the days when gasoline went for 36 cents a gallon, as this pummeled planet and its inhabitants contend with tariffs, inflation and trouble in the Mideast. Related: Surprising jobs data shows economy in flux Speaking of which, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claimed on June 26 that the US "gained no achievements" from strikes on its nuclear facilities, the BBC reported, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation "significantly damaged the nuclear program, setting it back by years." "Whether we destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities or not, I certainly think we damaged them," said Peter Tchir, head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities of San Diego and a contributor to TheStreet Pro. "It's meant to push Iran, but I think it's also meant to signal to China, to Russia, that, 'hey, we are not afraid to do what we need to do to protect our interests.'" More Wall Street Analysts: Analysts reboot Olive Garden parent's stock price targets as earnings loomAnalysts revamp forecast for Nvidia-backed AI stockIntuitive Surgical analyst raises eyebrows with new stock price target Tchir commented during a conversation with Chris Versace, lead portfolio manager for TheStreet Pro Portfolio, in the June 25 edition of TheStreet Stocks & Markets Podcast. "Our view has been that the Middle East is desperate to move beyond conflict and fossil fuels," Tchir said. "Saudi Arabia wants to become the data-center capital of the world. They are excited. [Nvidia CEO] Jensen Huang came over. They're going to buy Nvidia chips. They want to move us on. And I don't know whether they're outright helping Israel but they certainly aren't on Iran's side." And to tie in one last piece, Tchir added, "I think our view is that China is probably telling them, 'hey, it's not in our interest for you to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. It's probably not in your interest to do that.'" "So, all these things tell me that this is near the end rather than early innings of some sort of negotiated peace," he said. Versace noted that in addition to the Mideast effort, President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on all European Union goods on July 9. "I think on trade we're going to boil down that we expect pauses and extensions to be the norm," Tchir said. "I think one thing about this administration is that relatively, they're way better staffed up front than Trump 1.0 was. But not every deputy undersecretary has been in place. It's unclear whether all the staffs are in place." He said Secretary of State Marco Rubio "is effectively doing two full-time jobs right now." "So I think this administration is very Trump-centric," Tchir said. "And he has his handful of people who do a lot of this. So I think that's a limiting factor. How many things can you do if your main people who work on one thing are in the Ready Room getting ready for this attack? Other people are. You just don't have that." About tariffs, Tchir said that "I'm a little bit afraid that Trump might be encouraged by how well the stock market has done and decide, let's give tariffs another go. I don't think that happens. ... Related: Fannie Mae chief Pulte sends savage one-word message to Fed's Powell "The other thing is I think he's listening to a lot more people. … If you look at migration issues he's clearly listening now to farmers. He's listening to the hotel and leisure business and seems to be backing off a little bit there and making concessions that would allow those migrants to stay. "And I think and I keep hearing that he's hearing a lot more from small and midsize businesses, through chambers of commerce and direct connections, and through a lot of the state representatives or local representatives, that, 'hey, you are hurting your base. Small and midsize business people loved you. You are not helping them right now.' "So I think he's moving away and hopefully we can move on to national production, for national security, other things that are far less tense and zero-sum games." Versace said he suspected companies would likely guide more cautiously, "something similar that we saw in the March-quarter earnings season. "And we'll see consensus EPS numbers for the S&P 500 in the back half of the year come down," Versace said. "But I also think that past a certain point, Trump needs to get some wins on the board. And I think once you get that first domino to fall, call it China, call it the EU, call it the UK, it becomes easier for the others to fall on top as well." "I completely agree that he needs some more wins. And I think if Iran plays out like we think, that will actually be a win," Tchir said. "Obviously it's not trade-related, but I think that momentum carries into other things.. It's all of a sudden people may look at the president as, oh, 'now you've won. Now you've done something aggressive, you've done something different than we expected.'" "And I think that could translate into trade deals," he added. "I think it would be helpful." Related: Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
07-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy
Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy originally appeared on TheStreet. This article is based on TheStreet's Stock & Markets Podcast, Episode 8. Hosted by the veteran Wall Street investor Chris Versace, the weekly podcasts are available early to members of TheStreetPro investing club. The podcasts are also available on YouTube. More than 40 years ago Tina Turner famously asked the world: "What's love got to with it?" If the subject is investing, David Miller has a simple answer: not much. 💵💰Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter 💰 Miller, chief investment officer of Catalyst Funds, spoke with Chris Versace, lead portfolio manager for TheStreet Pro Portfolio, in the June 4 edition, episode 8, of TheStreet Stocks & Markets Podcast, to talk about what his firm is looking for in a candidate for investment. "I think the sweet spot is where you have such a good business that even if people hate them they continue to grow and grow with high margins and high EPS growth," he said. Miller cited the billionaire entrepreneur, venture capitalist and political activist Peter Thiel, who advises founders and entrepreneurs to aim for a monopoly and avoid competition. "You're either in perfect competition or you have a monopoly or an oligopoly," he said. "And clearly, anyone who owns a business wants to be in that position where you have a monopoly rather than being in perfect competition."He described how airlines historically haven't even earned their cost of capital and frequently end up going bankrupt. Restaurants, he said, have very high fixed costs and "just never earn outsized economic profits." "Whereas you look at a company like a Visa () or Mastercard () or a Microsoft or an Apple or an Adobe () or an Nvidia," () Miller said. "Phenomenal businesses, phenomenal margins, great tailwinds, really strong free cash flows." So why invest in companies that aren't monopolies when many of the best returning stocks in history have turned into monopolies? "[Frankly,] you don't have to try to pick which stock is going to be the best stock," Miller said. "You can just take these categories that are far superior businesses and invest in those. That's the ideology behind that fund and why we launched it." Miller pointed to Apple () , explaining that "once you're in the Apple ecosystem, they own you." More Wall Street Analysts: Wells Fargo analysts reboot stock price targets after Fed action Apple analyst raises alarm about earnings, revenue growth Analyst initiates SoFi coverage, mulls loans, growth prospects "You don't have a whole lot of choices and they can get great margins," he said. "As someone who's been trapped in the Apple ecosystem willingly since 2005 I am perfectly content and happy," Versace responded. "I certainly understand why a lot of people love Apple," Miller said. "I have the iPhone. I like Apple and I don't particularly like Microsoft, but I'm definitely a customer of Microsoft. I think the best businesses are those where you'll do business with them even if you don't like them." Miller said Tesla () fits this dynamic, as the electric-vehicle maker "launched a new monopoly or an oligopoly depending on how you look at it certainly from a market share perspective." "Once you decide you're going to get an EV, it's a lot easier to go ahead and buy a Tesla and be part of their ecosystem than it is to ... buy an EV that's not part of that Tesla ecosystem," he added. Tesla shares have been thrashed lately — off 14% in regular trading June 5 — in light of Chief Executive Elon Musk's controversial involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency and backing of President Donald Trump. (The two have fallen out and Musk has rankled the White House by describing what the president called his "big, beautiful" budget bill as pork-laden and a 'disgusting abomination.') And while Tesla stock is down nearly 22% in 2025, it remains up about 60% from a year ago. Miller said the courts provide one of the most telltale signs of a monopoly. "Once the courts start coming after you for being a monopoly, that's a pretty good indication that you have some monopolistic characteristics in your business whether or not you want to admit it," he that historically been the targets of court action for their monopolistic characteristics have been phenomenal investments, he added. "If you look at a company like Microsoft, () if you got into [it when] the courts first came after them pretty hard, you'd be sitting pretty today," he said. Monopolies to avoid include electric and water companies. "If you're in a space where you have a product where your profits are regulated as to how much return on equity you can actually generate, we avoid those because what we want to go for is those that are growing monopolies." And Miller prefers to leave emotion out of the equation. "If people like a product, that's great," he said, "but what I really prefer is that they need the product rather than they like the product, and that there's some growing demand around it."Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 6, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 6, 2025, where it first appeared. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Miami Herald
06-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy
This article is based on TheStreet's Stock & Markets Podcast, Episode 8. Hosted by the veteran Wall Street investor Chris Versace, the weekly podcasts are available early to members of TheStreetPro investing club. The podcasts are also available on YouTube. More than 40 years ago Tina Turner famously asked the world: "What's love got to with it?" If the subject is investing, David Miller has a simple answer: not much. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Miller, chief investment officer of Catalyst Funds, spoke with Chris Versace, lead portfolio manager for TheStreet Pro Portfolio, in the June 4 edition, episode 8, of TheStreet Stocks & Markets Podcast, to talk about what his firm is looking for in a candidate for investment. "I think the sweet spot is where you have such a good business that even if people hate them they continue to grow and grow with high margins and high EPS growth," he said. Miller cited the billionaire entrepreneur, venture capitalist and political activist Peter Thiel, who advises founders and entrepreneurs to aim for a monopoly and avoid competition. "You're either in perfect competition or you have a monopoly or an oligopoly," he said. "And clearly, anyone who owns a business wants to be in that position where you have a monopoly rather than being in perfect competition." Related: Adviser who thrived on Black Monday sends warning on tariffs' next victim He described how airlines historically haven't even earned their cost of capital and frequently end up going bankrupt. Restaurants, he said, have very high fixed costs and "just never earn outsized economic profits." "Whereas you look at a company like a Visa (V) or Mastercard (MA) or a Microsoft or an Apple or an Adobe (ADBE) or an Nvidia," (NVDA) Miller said. "Phenomenal businesses, phenomenal margins, great tailwinds, really strong free cash flows." So why invest in companies that aren't monopolies when many of the best returning stocks in history have turned into monopolies? "[Frankly,] you don't have to try to pick which stock is going to be the best stock," Miller said. "You can just take these categories that are far superior businesses and invest in those. That's the ideology behind that fund and why we launched it." Miller pointed to Apple (AAPL) , explaining that "once you're in the Apple ecosystem, they own you." More Wall Street Analysts: Wells Fargo analysts reboot stock price targets after Fed actionApple analyst raises alarm about earnings, revenue growthAnalyst initiates SoFi coverage, mulls loans, growth prospects "You don't have a whole lot of choices and they can get great margins," he said. "As someone who's been trapped in the Apple ecosystem willingly since 2005 I am perfectly content and happy," Versace responded. "I certainly understand why a lot of people love Apple," Miller said. "I have the iPhone. I like Apple and I don't particularly like Microsoft, but I'm definitely a customer of Microsoft. I think the best businesses are those where you'll do business with them even if you don't like them." Miller said Tesla (TSLA) fits this dynamic, as the electric-vehicle maker "launched a new monopoly or an oligopoly depending on how you look at it certainly from a market share perspective." "Once you decide you're going to get an EV, it's a lot easier to go ahead and buy a Tesla and be part of their ecosystem than it is to ... buy an EV that's not part of that Tesla ecosystem," he added. Tesla shares have been thrashed lately - off 14% in regular trading June 5 - in light of Chief Executive Elon Musk's controversial involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency and backing of President Donald Trump. (The two have fallen out and Musk has rankled the White House by describing what the president called his "big, beautiful" budget bill as pork-laden and a "disgusting abomination.") And while Tesla stock is down nearly 22% in 2025, it remains up about 60% from a year ago. Miller said the courts provide one of the most telltale signs of a monopoly. "Once the courts start coming after you for being a monopoly, that's a pretty good indication that you have some monopolistic characteristics in your business whether or not you want to admit it," he said. Related: Tesla analysts raise red flag about rivalry, consumer interest in key market Companies that historically been the targets of court action for their monopolistic characteristics have been phenomenal investments, he added. "If you look at a company like Microsoft, (MSFT) if you got into [it when] the courts first came after them pretty hard, you'd be sitting pretty today," he said. Monopolies to avoid include electric and water companies. "If you're in a space where you have a product where your profits are regulated as to how much return on equity you can actually generate, we avoid those because what we want to go for is those that are growing monopolies." And Miller prefers to leave emotion out of the equation. "If people like a product, that's great," he said, "but what I really prefer is that they need the product rather than they like the product, and that there's some growing demand around it." Related: Veteran fund manager who forecast S&P 500 crash unveils surprising update The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Advisor who thrived on Black Monday sends warning on tariffs' next victim
People who were there said it felt like an earthquake. They used words like "surreal" and "unsettling," and said there was a sense of impending doom. 💵💰Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter 💰 This was Oct. 19, 1987, also known as Black Monday, the largest one-day percentage decline in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The massive sell-off resulted in roughly $500 billion in market capitalization vanishing and a lot of mighty scared people. But Louis Llanes wasn't one of them. "No, no, no," the portfolio manager and TheStreet Pro contributor insisted. "It got me excited because I actually was at that time more involved with more thinking global macro. You could be short, you could be long, you could be commodities, stocks, bonds, currencies." Llanes, founder of Wealthnet Investments, LLC and author of The Financial Freedom Blueprint, shared his views about a variety of market-related topics with Chris Versace, lead portfolio manager for TheStreet Pro Portfolio, in the May 15 edition of TheStreet Stocks & Markets Podcast. "So, I've been in a lot of different areas in the business," he said. "I started off on the sales side, where you're going out and finding clients. And I learned very quickly at that time that many of the incentives at the larger Wall Street firms were not necessarily aligned with making money." More Wall Street Analysts: Analyst reboots Apple stock price target ahead of earnings Analyst unveils surprising Tesla stock target after Musk's remarks Analyst raises eyebrows with Amazon stock price target "We had all the research," he added. "I was, like, this doesn't make sense. I'm in this business to make money." As far as people who are just coming to the market, Llanes said he sees two types of newer investors. "One wants to do it themselves, is interested in it, and highly capable of doing it themselves," he said. "Maybe they're an engineer or something like that. Their psychology is different than, say, somebody who's got a job. They're a manager or something like that, and they don't have time for that. You have a different kind of a view on how to do things." Llanes advises people generally to continue investing based on the long term. "It depends on how old you are," he said, "but to have more of a longer term view and to have one based on an investment strategy that's based on economics, not on emotion. The biggest problem you get is, for example, let's say you're a doctor, you're going to hear all sorts of things in the operating table or when you're doing whatever." "And those clients that I have that are in those fields, they tend to have all sorts of things like, hey, 'what do you think of this?'" Llanes added. "They're hearing all these things and people will talk about, all the things that they made money on. Nobody talks about the things that they lose money on." Remember, he said, "the people who are talking a lot about how much money they made on something probably aren't doing as well as you think they are." Llanes said that the old adage about letting your profits run and cutting your losses short is probably the most important rule in investing. "As soon as you know you're wrong, get out," he said. "And if you're not sure, if things are working out in your favor, be a little bit apprehensive or a lot apprehensive to just unload that security." The conversation turned President Donald Trump's scattergun tariff plan that has gone through several personality changes since the April 2 "Liberation Day" said that he expected from the very beginning that tariffs would be rolled back "because it was a shock that came to the system on the approach." "There's a difference between how the initial communication went to the public on how we were going to deal with tariffs," he said. "Right on its face, we knew it wasn't feasible. So we knew there'd there would be some pulling back." While Llanes thinks the negotiations will be more on the normal side, the initial approach was good since it got a lot of people talking very quickly, and "the ball is moving a lot faster" now than the traditional country-by-country method. "So, in terms of as an investor, I think that the biggest thing is that you just have to understand that there's going to be winners and losers in this." he said. Llanes' said all of the trends are pointing toward interest rates staying higher. "Nobody really knows how the tariffs are going to work out," he said. "I mean, we're still working through it. The tariffs won't be as inflationary as the alarmists are saying." Llanes believes the other part of the equation, which will see more investment in the U.S., will continue to increase. "That will hold up interest rates," he said. "And I think that's going to affect the real fast-growing companies that are way overvalued. They're going to struggle, I believe."
