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Scoop
10-07-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Public Debt, Japan, And Wilful Blindness
I just heard on Radio New Zealand a claim by a British commentator, Hugo Gye (Political Editor of The i Paper), that the United Kingdom (among other countries) has a major public debt crisis, and that if nothing is done about it (such as what Rachel Reeves – Chancellor of the Exchequer – is wanting to do), then in 2070 the public debt to GDP ratio would reach an 'extreme' level of 270% of GDP (gross domestic product). He added for good measure that no country in the world has public debt at a level anything like that. (Refer UK: Macron meets the King, RNZ, 10 July 2025.) So I checked the International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2025, and found the following about Japan, the world's fourth-largest national economy, looking at years from 2010 to 2024, with respect to government gross debt and general government financial deficit: minimum debt 206% (in 2010) maximum debt 258% (in 2020) average debt 234% current debt 237% (in 2024) projected debt 232% (in 2030) minimum deficit 2.3% (in 2023) maximum deficit 9.1% (in 2010) average deficit 5.3% current deficit 2.5% (in 2024) projected deficit 5.3% (in 2030) Advertisement - scroll to continue reading Japan does not have a 'cost of living crisis'. Below is a list of Japan's interest (source: and inflation rates (again the reference period is 2010 to 2024): Japan is a prosperous country, with high life expectancy (85, the highest in the world for large economy nations), a very high ratio of retired people to working-age people, low inflation, and low interest rates. It was able to host the Olympic Games in 2021 without any financial fuss, and is about to host World Expo 2025. It has some of the world's most sophisticated infrastructure. Despite its high government debt – actually, to a large extent because of its high government debt – Japan's is a creditor economy. Japan is not in debt to the rest of the world. Japan's national debt is non-existent. Japan's government debt is widely acknowledged, however, to be the world's highest. Too many commentators – using wilful laziness – conflate national debt with government debt. Japan's is the world's most successful twenty-first century large economy. It operates by Japanese savers lending much of their savings to their government at very low interest rates; those savers prefer to lend to their government rather than to pay high taxes to their government. Prosperous Japanese people are not greedy in the way that many rich westerners are. Their mantra is 'private wealth, public wealth'; not 'private wealth, public poverty'. Japan's is not a zero-sum economy; in a zero-sum economy the prosperity of some comes at the expense of the impoverishment of others. Hugo Jye was negligently dishonest – a case of wilful blindness or ignorance – in claiming that no countries had anything like 270% of GDP government debt. Western economists and financial commentators are likewise wilfully negligent in failing to alert their countries' governments that there is an alternative – in plain sight – to our woeful policies of financial suffocation. Note about three other economies Within the European Union, it is rare for professional commentators to sing the praises of Spain and Italy. Spain, with 101% public debt, is enjoying a low inflation economic boom. It has a life expectancy of 83, higher than all European Union countries other than Malta and Luxembourg. Spain has had only government budget deficits since the surpluses of the years leading up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (a crisis which hit Spain particularly badly). Despite – no, because of – these accumulated deficits, Spain's public debt (as a percent of GDP) has been falling since 2020; the deficits stimulated GDP. Spain had one year of high inflation (8.3% in 2022; the next highest since 2020 were 3.05% in 2011 and 3.0% in 2021); it recovered very quickly from that one year. Spain's current interest rate is 2.15%. Italy had 135% government debt to GDP in 2024. Its people's life expectancy is high, marginally lower than Spain's and slightly higher than New Zealand's; significantly higher than Germany, Netherlands and the United States. Italy's economy has been growing faster than the European Union average. Its public debt (compared to GDP) has been falling despite government deficits. Spain and Italy are doing relatively well despite having among the highest older-person to younger-person age ratios in Europe. Spain is pro-actively utilising immigrant labour, whereas Northern Europe is scapegoating immigrants. And Spain, unlike most of Europe, is not looking to its 'Defence' budget to boost future growth. Türkiye's public debt has fallen from a high (since 2006) of 40% in 2021 to under 30% in 2023. This is despite double-digit inflation since 2016 and an average budget deficit since 2011 of 5.3%. While high inflation has benefitted Türkiye by bringing about negative real interest rates (meaning interest payments effectively flow from richer to poorer, generally benefitting indebted Turkish businesses and households), current interest rate settings look like suffocating for Türkiye for the remainder of the 2020s. (This monetary policy of suffocation is also true for Australia in 2025, with its particularly hawkish Reserve Bank at present.) Despite challenging geopolitical and climatic circumstances, Türkiye has, at least until 2024, managed to achieve rising living standards for a substantial majority of its people. Unlike the United Kingdom and some northern European countries, Türkiye has not been a crisis economy despite (or because of) a reputation for unsound public finance. ------------- Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand. Keith Rankin Political Economist, Scoop Columnist Keith Rankin taught economics at Unitec in Mt Albert since 1999. An economic historian by training, his research has included an analysis of labour supply in the Great Depression of the 1930s, and has included estimates of New Zealand's GNP going back to the 1850s. Keith believes that many of the economic issues that beguile us cannot be understood by relying on the orthodox interpretations of our social science disciplines. Keith favours a critical approach that emphasises new perspectives rather than simply opposing those practices and policies that we don't like. Keith retired in 2020 and lives with his family in Glen Eden, Auckland.
RNZ News
09-07-2025
- Business
- RNZ News
UK: Macron meets the King
UK correspondent Hugo Gye talks about the pomp and ceremony of the French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit, where he used a speech to push for a more aggressive distancing of Europe from the US. A new report by the Office for Budget Responsibility finds the outlook dire for British finances, forecasting national debt to grow to 270 percent of GDP by the 2070s if nothing is changed. And Wimbledon is drawing to an end, but not before temperatures are set to hit the 30s again. Hugo Gye is Political Editor of The i Paper
Metro
05-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Metro
'I'm sorry?' - Wimbledon star surprised by 'disgusting' Emma Raducanu question
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video A confused and surprised Cameron Norrie had to ask a journalist to repeat himself after being asked if he was dating Emma Raducanu in a press conference at Wimbledon. Great Britain's best remaining hope at the All England Club Norrie had just booked his place in the fourth round of his home Grand Slam when he was bizarrely asked about Raducanu's love life. Raducanu, whose encouraging Wimbledon run was ended by world number one Aryna Sabalenka, denied speculation she was dating men's champion Carlos Alcaraz before the tournament. 'We're just good friends,' she said when asked if she was in a relationship with Alcaraz, who she will play alongside in the new US Open mixed doubles tournament next month. Norrie was bizarre asked if he was dating Raducanu following his impressive third-round straight-sets win over Mattia Bellucci. While Norrie keeps his private life relatively quiet, he has a long-term girlfriend who has supported him at most of his matches at the All England Club. As Norrie fielded questions about his victory over Bellucci and run at Wimbledon more generally, a journalist said: 'Apart from everyone here loving tennis, some of the gossip has been about who Emma Raducanu is dating. 'Can I ask if you're dating her? Can we get to the bottom of this please?' Norrie was visibly confused by the question and replied: 'I'm sorry?' The reporter continued: 'I'm trying to find our who's dating Emma Raducanu. It seems to be going around all of the men's singles players. I was wondering if you were dating her, please?' 'I'm not, no,' Norrie said. 'You can ask her [that question]. I don't know.' Norrie continued to look baffled by the line of questioning as another journalist began asking about his fourth-round opponent, Nicolas Jarry. More Trending The 29-year-old is eyeing up a deep run at the All England Club having reached the semi-finals of this tournament back in 2022 before losing to eventual champion Novak Djokovic. A number of social media users described the line of questioning as 'embarrassing' and 'pathetic'. Sports writer Molly McElwee branded the incident 'disgusting', 'shameless' and 'sexist' in a column for The i Paper. More to follow… For more stories like this, check our sport page. Follow Metro Sport for the latest news on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. MORE: Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner or Novak Djokovic? Roger Federer predicts Wimbledon champion MORE: Novak Djokovic's former coach names his 'favourite' to win Wimbledon MORE: Wimbledon respond to Emma Raducanu and Jack Draper complaints over key change
The Hill
26-06-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Panetta: Trump contradicting intelligence assessments ‘a very scary prospect'
Former CIA director Leon Panetta described President Trump's recent remarks doubting the intelligence community while launching military action against Iran as 'very scary' on Thursday. 'It undermines the work of our intelligence professionals who really are focused on trying to provide the president with the truth — when the president questions their credibility, that certainly undermines their morale, I'm sure,' he told the London-based The i Paper. 'But secondly, it also creates a real problem for the president, because if he rejects the intelligence he's receiving, then what will be the basis for the decisions that he makes in the future, and that is a very scary prospect,' the former Obama-era official added. Trump repeatedly rejected Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Tulsi Gabbard's assessment of Tehran's nuclear capabilities amid the recent Israel-Iran military conflict and before the U.S. bombed three of Iran's major nuclear facilities over the weekend. 'Well, then my intelligence community is wrong,' the president told reporters Friday, when asked about Gabbard's assessment in March that Iran was not working to build a nuclear weapon. After Trump's rebukes, Gabbard updated her analysis to align with the president's. 'America has intelligence that Iran is at the point that it can produce a nuclear weapon within weeks to months, if they decide to finalize the assembly. President Trump has been clear that can't happen, and I agree,' she wrote in a post on social platform X. The Trump administration has also rejected the Defense Intelligence Agency's leaked initial assessment of the blow to Iran's nuclear capabilities following the U.S. strikes. 'There's no question that when the U.S. president makes a statement that our intelligence assessments are wrong and doesn't believe our own intelligence, that creates a very dangerous moment,' Panetta, who is 86 and retired, said in his interview with The i Paper. The former CIA director, who also previously served as Defense Secretary under then-President Obama, said the row raises questions about 'whether or not the U.S. will exercise the right kind of leadership in a dangerous world.' 'I have always been confident about our intelligence assessments with regards to Iran,' he said. 'The fundamental question is: did they make a decision to proceed with developing a weapon? And I think our intelligence indicates that that still was not the case.' The White House didn't immediately respond to The Hill's request for comment on the remarks.
Daily Mirror
22-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Daily Mirror
Martin Clunes to star in huge Hollywood movie with Margot Robbie
Doc Martin star Martin Clunes has signed up for a huge-budget film that will see him star alongside Margot Robbie as well as Euphoria actor Jacob Elordi Martin Clunes is set to star in a major Hollywood film, alongside big names like Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi. The Doc Martin actor's next role will be in the upcoming Wuthering Heights, directed by Emerald Fennell, slated for release in February 2026. However, many details about the film remain a secret. In a recent interview with The i Paper, Martin unveiled his involvement in this "massive, Warner Brothers, huge-budget movie, all built on sets at Elstree". He will take on the character of Mr Earnshaw, father of Catherine Earnshaw, in Wuthering Heights. Margot Robbie is set to play Catherine, while Jacob Elordi will portray Heathcliff. Other cast members include Hong Chau as Nelly Dean and Shazad Latif as Edgar Linton, with Alison Oliver playing Isabella Linton. Owen Cooper, Charlotte Mellington, and Vy Nguyen will also feature as young Heathcliff, teenage Catherine, and young Nelly respectively, reports Wales Online. Wuthering Heights is based on Emily Brontë's 1847 novel of the same name, which explores the turbulent relationship between Catherine and Heathcliff, an orphan adopted by Catherine's family. If the film stays true to the book, audiences can anticipate a gripping story of love and revenge set in 19th-century Yorkshire, with themes of social class, obsession, and love taking centre stage. Emerald is set for her third venture with LuckyChap Entertainment, the production company helmed by Margot Robbie, her spouse Tom Ackerley, and Josey McNamara. She has previously joined forces with them for the acclaimed films Promising Young Woman and Saltburn. Although Emerald has kept quiet about the particulars of her upcoming adaptation of Wuthering Heights, her fascination with gothic themes is no secret. In a piece for the Los Angeles Times, Emerald confided: "I've always been obsessed with the gothic. Whether it was Edward Gorey's children who are variously choked by peaches, sucked dry by leeches or smothered by rugs; Du Maurier's imperilled heroines or the disturbing erotic power of Angela Carter's fairy tales, the gothic world has always had me in its grip." She continued: "It's a genre where comedy and horror, revulsion and desire, sex and death are forever entwined, where every exchange is heavy with the threat of violence, or sex or both."
