Latest news with #TheronFinley
Time Magazine
10 hours ago
- Science
- Time Magazine
Scientists Say A Major Earthquake Fault Line Is Waking Up
High up in Canada's Yukon Territory, a seismic gun is being cocked and aimed at the little community of Dawson City—population 1,600. If a new study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is correct, that town or one of many others in the region could be rocked by a major earthquake pretty much at any moment. The source of the danger is a 1,000 km (620 mi.) formation known as the Tintina fault that cuts northwest across the Yukon and terminates in Alaska. It has been mostly still for the past 12,000 years but appears to be getting ready to lurch to life. 'Over the past couple of decades there have been a few small earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 4 detected along the Tintina Fault, but nothing to suggest it is capable of large ruptures,' said Theron Finley, a recent PhD graduate at Canada's University of Victoria and the lead author of the study, in a statement. That's not the full story, though, Finley says. What the last few decades suggest and what the geological record now shows are two different things—and according to the paper, Tintina is a lot more menacing than it seems. What caught the interest of Finley and his colleagues is a 130-km (80 mi.) segment of the fault that runs near Dawson City, with surface features suggesting that numerous large earthquakes occurred in relatively recent geological history—during the Quaternary Period, which runs from 2.6 million years ago to the present. To get a better understanding, the researchers used an existing library of high-resolution imagery from airplanes, satellites, and drones, some of them captured by lidar—which uses pulsed laser emissions to produce 3D maps of the surface. This allowed them to study that stretch of the fault in unprecedented detail—and find a number of geological secrets hiding in plain sight. At one point in the Tintina segment, they discovered a fault scarp—or a ridged crack in the surface—where the land broke and shifted by 1,000 m (3,280 ft.). That is a clear fingerprint of an earthquake, one that, according to the rounding and wear and sloping of the scarp, occurred about 2.6 million years ago. At another spot they found another scarp, misaligned by a more modest 75 m (250 ft.), that they estimate to have been caused by a smaller but still considerable quake that occurred about 132,000 years ago. No evidence of significant quakes turned up at any time in the past 12,000 years, meaning Tintina has been relatively stable throughout the entirety of the Holocene Epoch, which runs from 11,700 years ago to the present. But for modern day folks living in Dawson and elsewhere, that recent period of quiescence is actually bad news. Just because a fault isn't causing quakes doesn't mean it isn't on the move. Finley and his colleagues estimate that Tintina is moving and accumulating strain on the order of 0.2 mm to 0.8 mm a year. Over the course of 12,000 years, those millimeters add up, and when the strain is suddenly released—which it ultimately must be—the result will not be pretty. "We determined that future earthquakes on the Tintina fault could exceed magnitude 7.5,' said Finley in a statement. 'Based on the data, we think that the fault may be at a relatively late stage of a seismic cycle, having accrued a slip deficit, or build-up of strain, of six metres [20 ft] in the last 12,000 years. If this were to be released, it would cause a significant earthquake.' The estimated 7.5 magnitude of the quake would put it on a scale with some of history's bigger temblors, including China's 1976 Tangshan event which claimed an estimated 240,000 to 650,000 lives; and the 2020 Haiti quake, which killed 300,000. The Yukon Territory is much more sparsely populated than Tangshen or Haiti, meaning fewer casualties. Still, there would quite likely be deaths, along with damage to local highways, mines, and other infrastructure. The area is also prone to landslides which could be triggered by a quake. 'Our results,' the researchers wrote, 'have significant implications for seismic hazard in the Yukon Territory and neighboring Alaska. If 12,000 years have elapsed since the last major earthquake, the fault may be at an advanced stage of strain accumulation.' It is impossible to know exactly when that strain will be released, of course—one of the things that makes seismology such a confounding science. The best the scientists can do is warn locals of the long term risks and leave them to prepare go bags, survival kits, and evacuation plans. The Earth will quake at will; we can only react.
New York Post
2 days ago
- Science
- New York Post
Hidden fault line could lead to ‘catastrophic' earthquake stretching from US to Canada, scientists warn
We're on shakier ground than previously thought. Canadian scientists have warned that an overlooked fault line could unleash catastrophic earthquakes across North America — disrupting infrastructure, triggering landslides and impacting thousands of people from Alaska to Montana. The study, which was conducted by geologists with the University Of Victoria in British Columbia and published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that this terrifying feature has been stealthily lying in wait for quite some time. 'This new study shows it has been quietly building toward a potentially very large earthquake,' Dr. Michael West, the state seismologist at Alaska Earthquake Center, told the Daily Mail. 'It is one of the least studied fault systems in North America, and that needs to change.' 3 Diagrams of the Tintina fault. American Geophysical Union Dubbed the Tintina fault, the seismic structure extends more than 621 miles across the Yukon from Northeastern British Columbia into Alaska, reported. Despite shifting laterally nearly 280 miles in its lifetime, scientists believed that the tectonic monstrosity — which was discovered in 1912 — had remained dormant for 40 million years. Unfortunately, it appears there was a fault in their intel. Using topographic imaging from satellites, aircraft and drones, researchers have now uncovered an 80-mile section just 12 miles from Dawson City, Canada, that has evidence of large earthquakes during the Quaternary Period — an epoch spanning the last 2.6 million years to the present, SciTechDaily reported. 3 The northbound on-ramp for International Airport Road at Minnesota Boulevard collapsed in 2018 after a strong earthquake shook south-central Alaska. 'Over the past couple of decades, there have been a few small earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 4 detected along the Tintina fault, but nothing to suggest it is capable of large ruptures,' explained Theron Finley, a recent UVic Ph.D. graduate and lead author of the recent article. 'The expanding availability of high-resolution data prompted us to re-examine the fault, looking for evidence of prehistoric earthquakes in the landscape.' They specifically discovered glacial landforms that were offset across the fault escarpment by more than 3,000 feet, 2.6 million years ago, and others that slipped over 245 feet, 135,000 years ago. Meanwhile, the Tintina fault continues to strain at 0.2 to 0.8 millimeters annually, indicating that a major seismic event could be on the horizon. 'We determined that future earthquakes on the Tintina fault could exceed magnitude 7.5,' warned Finley. 'Based on the data, we think that the fault may be at a relatively late stage of a seismic cycle, having accrued a slip deficit, or build-up of strain, of six meters in the last 12,000 years. If this were to be released, it would cause a significant earthquake.' 3 A diagram of the Tintina fault, which potentially could trigger a 'very large earthquake,' according to Dr. Michael West, the state seismologist at the Alaska Earthquake Center. American Geophysical Union A tremor of this magnitude could cause severe shaking in Dawson City and threaten nearby highways and mines, as well as cause landslides in the notoriously rockfall-prone region. Meanwhile, experts fear that the fault could trigger severe earthquakes in Alaska's Fairbanks North Star Borough that have the potential to impact over 125,000 people as well as affect critical infrastructure such as the Trans-Alaska pipeline, the Daily Mail reported. Some fear the tremors could affect regions as far as Montana, like something out of a Roland Emmerich disaster film. How did such a potentially cataclysmic threat fly under the radar for so long? Experts believe that it has to do with shaky data and our distorted timescale — seismic hazard estimates are informed by historical earthquake records, including Indigenous oral histories and info from modern seismic networks that only go back a few hundred years. Meanwhile, the new research indicates that landforms that were 12,000 years old weren't displaced by the fault, suggesting that there haven't been any large ruptures since then. 'We are not good at thinking about things that happen every 12,000 years,' said West. Not to mention that the ruptures, which can be over 100 miles long but just several feet tall, are difficult to detect in heavily forested regions like Canada without the aforementioned topographic radar tech. 'The most dangerous thing is not just that the fault is active,' said West. 'It is that no one's been paying attention to it.' Canada's National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) currently doesn't recognize the Tintina fault as a discrete quake fault source, but plans to integrate the findings by the team in the future so they can help formulate plans to help save human lives and infrastructure. The study will also be shared with local governments and emergency managers to help better earthquake preparedness protocols in their communities.
Ya Libnan
2 days ago
- Science
- Ya Libnan
Scientists Warn: Tintina Fault Could Unleash Major Earthquake
BY UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA New research has uncovered surprising evidence that the Tintina fault in Yukon, once thought dormant for over 40 million years, may in fact still be active and capable of generating powerful earthquakes. Using cutting-edge topographic data, scientists have identified geologic clues pointing to recent seismic activity and a buildup of strain that could lead to a magnitude 7.5 event. A major fault in Canada's Yukon Territory, long thought dormant, has shown signs of recent seismic activity. A new study from the University of Victoria (UVic) has brought attention to a newly identified seismic threat in northwestern Canada's Yukon Territory. Stretching approximately 1,000 kilometers, the Tintina fault cuts northwest across the region and has shifted sideways by a total of 450 kilometers over its geological lifetime. For decades, scientists believed this fault had been dormant for over 40 million years. But with the help of advanced topographic imaging from satellites, aircraft, and drones, researchers have now discovered a 130-kilometer portion of the fault near Dawson City that shows signs of several large earthquakes during the Quaternary Period (spanning the last 2.6 million years to the present). This suggests that the fault may still be active and capable of producing significant future earthquakes. 'Over the past couple of decades, there have been a few small earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 4 detected along the Tintina fault, but nothing to suggest it is capable of large ruptures,' says Theron Finley, recent UVic PhD graduate and lead author of the recent article in Geophysical Research Letters. 'The expanding availability of high-resolution data prompted us to re-examine the fault, looking for evidence of prehistoric earthquakes in the landscape.' Across most of Canada, seismic hazard estimates are informed by historical earthquake records, including Indigenous oral histories, archived documents, and readings from modern seismic networks. However, these sources only go back a few hundred years. In contrast, major faults can lie quiet for thousands of years between large earthquakes, meaning important seismic risks may go undetected without geological investigation. Uncovering the Landscape's Hidden Clues When earthquakes are large and/or shallow, they often rupture the Earth's surface and produce a linear feature in the landscape known as a fault scarp. These features, which can persist in the landscape for thousands of years, are typically tens to hundreds of kilometers long, but only a few meters wide and tall. They are difficult to detect in heavily forested regions like Canada, and require extremely high-resolution topographic data to identify. The team, consisting of researchers from UVic, the Geological Survey of Canada, and University of Alberta, used high-resolution topographic data from the ArcticDEM dataset from satellite images, as well as from light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys conducted with airplanes and drones. They identified a series of fault scarps passing within 20 km of Dawson City. Crucially, they observed that glacial landforms 2.6 million years in age are laterally offset across the fault scarp by 1000 m. Others, 132,000 years old, are laterally offset by 75 m. These findings confirm that the fault has slipped in multiple earthquakes throughout the Quaternary period, likely slipping several meters in each event. What's more, landforms known to be 12,000 years old are not offset by the fault, indicating no large ruptures have occurred since that time. The fault continues to accumulate strain at an average rate of 0.2 to 0.8 millimeters per year, and therefore poses a future earthquake threat. A Looming Earthquake Threat 'We determined that future earthquakes on the Tintina fault could exceed magnitude 7.5,' says Finley. 'Based on the data, we think that the fault may be at a relatively late stage of a seismic cycle, having accrued a slip deficit, or build-up of strain, of six meters in the last 12,000 years. If this were to be released, it would cause a significant earthquake.' An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater would cause severe shaking in Dawson City and could pose a threat to nearby highways and mining infrastructure. Compounding the hazard from seismic shaking, the region is prone to landslides, which could be seismically triggered. The Moosehide landslide immediately north of Dawson City and the newly discovered Sunnydale landslide directly across the Yukon River both show ongoing signs of instability. Canada's National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) includes the potential for large earthquakes in central Yukon Territory, but the Tintina fault is not currently recognized as a discrete seismogenic fault source. The recent findings by this team will ultimately be integrated into the NSHM, which informs seismic building codes and other engineering standards that protect human lives and critical infrastructure. The findings will also be shared with local governments and emergency managers to improve earthquake readiness in their communities. Reference: 'Large Surface-Rupturing Earthquakes and a >12 kyr, Open Interseismic Interval on the Tintina Fault, Yukon' by Theron Finley, Edwin Nissen, John F. Cassidy, Guy Salomon, Lucinda J. Leonard and Duane Froese, 15 July 2025, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2025GL116050 S CI TECH Daily
Daily Mail
5 days ago
- Science
- Daily Mail
Experts warn of hidden earthquake threat beneath North America
A previously quiet fault line beneath North America is now feared to be a ticking time bomb, and experts warn it could unleash a devastating earthquake with no warning, shaking parts of the US. Canadian scientists have discovered that the Tintina Fault, located just 12 miles from Dawson City in the Yukon, has been silently building up underground pressure and may be on the verge of erupting in a massive quake. 'It is one of the least studied fault systems in North America, and that needs to change,' he added. One section alone is approximately 81 miles long and could generate a magnitude 7.5 earthquake or greater, strong enough to shatter roads, destroy pipelines , and trigger landslides across the both Canada and the US. Researchers warned the consequences could be devastating if the fault breaks, especially since the Tintina Fault has been largely overlooked compared to more famous faults like the San Andreas, that extended over 750 miles through the California. They said the fault could break along more than 109 miles causing strong earthquakes in northern US communities, including Alaska's Fairbanks North Star Borough , potentially impacting over 125,000 people. The potential earthquake could significantly affect critical infrastructure like the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, particularly for those living in remote areas with limited earthquake preparedness or emergency response capabilities. Dr Theron Finley, a recent PhD graduate from University of Victoria and lead author of the study, said: 'The fault may be at a late stage of a seismic cycle.' 'It is quietly built up around 20 inches of slip that could be released in a single catastrophic event.' This fault has been hiding in plain sight since it was discovered in 1912 by geologist J B Tyrrell, who documented its existence in the Yukon Territory, based on geological surveys. It stayed suspiciously silent while others rumble, leaving it overlooked by quake monitors and hazard maps. But scientists now say it is a mature, slow-moving fault, the kind that stays quiet for thousands of years before suddenly unleashing a powerful quake. 'The most dangerous thing is not just that the fault is active,' said West. 'It is that no one's been paying attention to it,' he added. The study published in Geophysical Research Letters found that parts of ancient glacial landforms have shifted sideways by nearly, 3,200 feet, providing clear evidence of powerful past earthquakes. Researchers used satellite and drone mapping tools, which uncovered scars in the landscape that show this fault has ripped open the Earth's surface multiple times, with the last major rupture more than 12,000 years ago. Importantly, geologic evidence shows the land has not shifted in a long time, a sign that the fault has stayed locked and is steadily building pressure. That quiet period may actually be the problem. 'We are not good at thinking about things that happen every 12,000 years,' West said.
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Ancient Canadian fault could produce major earthquakes in the future
The Tintina, a major geologic fault that extends 1,000 km northwestward across much of the Yukon Territory, was thought to have been inactive for at least 40 million years, but new research led by a team at the University of Victoria (UVic) finds evidence of 'numerous large earthquakes', suggesting additional earthquakes could occur in the future. The team used high-resolution images from satellites, airplanes, and drones. They found a 130-km-long fault segment near Dawson City, suggesting seismic activity in the Quaternary Period, dating from 2.6 million years ago to today. "Over the past couple of decades, there have been a few small earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 4 detected along the Tintina fault, but nothing to suggest it is capable of large ruptures," Theron Finley, recent UVic PhD graduate and lead author of the recent article, says in a statement. "The expanding availability of high-resolution data prompted us to re-examine the fault, looking for evidence of prehistoric earthquakes in the landscape." Canada's current understanding of earthquake frequency and risk is limited to the last couple of hundred years, the authors say, and it is comprised of data derived from Indigenous records, historical archives, and modern technology. 'However, for many active faults, thousands of years can elapse between large ruptures,' the authors say in a statement. Large or shallow quakes can rupture Earth's surface, creating a linear feature in the land known as a fault scrap. This feature, which can be hundreds of kilometres long, can remain for tens of thousands of years and provide insight into seismic activity in the area. They're notoriously difficult to detect, especially in Canada's dense forests. The high-resolution topographic data used in the study is one of the best ways to detect fault scraps. It revealed glacial landforms that formed about 2.6 million years ago were laterally offset across a fault scrap by 1000 metres. Some that are 132,000 years old are offset by 75 metres. 'These findings confirm that the fault has slipped in multiple earthquakes throughout the Quaternary period, likely slipping several meters in each event. What's more, landforms known to be 12,000 years old are not offset by the fault, indicating no large ruptures have occurred since that time. The fault continues to accumulate strain at an average rate of 0.2 to 0.8 millimetres per year, and therefore poses a future earthquake threat,' the authors write in a statement. Finley says future earthquakes on the Tintina fault could be major, exceeding a mangitude 7.5, potentially causing severe shaking in Dawson City, a community with a population of about 2,350 people. 'Compounding the hazard from seismic shaking, the region is prone to landslides, which could be seismically triggered. The Moosehide landslide immediately north of Dawson City and the newly discovered Sunnydale landslide directly across the Yukon River both show ongoing signs of instability,' the authors write. The research will be shared with local authorities, governments, and infrastructure planners to help mitigate risk. Earthquake frequency in Canada Small earthquakes are common in Canada, with the Geological Survey of Canada recording and locating an average of 4,000 earthquakes annually, or 11 per day, nationwide. Header image: Approximate location of the Tintina fault. Cheryl Santa Maria for The Weather Network.
