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The Star
26-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Hope in fraught times: Trump-Xi bond could shift ties for the better, say US experts
BEIJING: US President Donald Trump's free hand domestically and open admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping could make him the wild card capable of shifting the relationship between the world's two largest powers from rivalry to cooperation, American scholars have said. Speaking at a session developed in collaboration with The Straits Times at a World Economic Forum event in Tianjin on Thursday (June 26), Harvard professor Graham Allison pointed out that Trump is not a China hawk. 'If you look at the campaign last year, there were a thousand people running for office in the country in which 80 per cent of the people have a negative view of China,' he said, referring to the US general election in 2024. 'Only one person had positive things to say about China. This was Donald Trump.' Prof Allison noted that Trump had said to Xi that when China and the United States work together, they can solve most of the world's problems. He said he believed that Trump is determined to be a 'great deal maker' and a 'great peacemaker'. 'If he is going to succeed in that mission, the opportunity for Trump and Xi to surprise us on the upside, I think, is enough to be hopeful,' said the national security analyst who has served under former US presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. Prof Allison's optimism stands out in the current climate. Since Trump began his second term in January, the US-China rivalry has intensified – most notably with the US' imposition of unprecedentedly high tariffs on Chinese goods – leading many observers to take a pessimistic view of the world's most consequential relationship. His optimism is also striking, given that he is famous for popularising the 'Thucydides Trap' – a concept that draws upon historical pattern to suggest that conflict becomes likely when an established power feels threatened by a rising power. (Clockwise from left) ST Foreign Editor Li Xueying moderating a session with Professor Graham Allison, Professor Jin Keyu, Professor Monica Toft and Professor Happymon Jacob at a World Economic Forum event in Tianjin on June 26. - Photo: World Economic Forum Another American scholar at the same session shared his optimism. Professor Monica Toft of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy said Trump has significant leeway to take a softer approach on China, given that most Americans are not interested in foreign policy and that Congress and the courts are unlikely to challenge him. 'If President Trump decided he could align US interests more closely with China – without giving away the store – he has both the prerogative and the opportunity to do that,' she said. Prof Toft noted that global politics today is shaped by two strongmen – Trump and Xi – who share a personal rapport. 'They talk to one another, they respect one another, they admire one another,' she said. 'It could be an extraordinary period for humanity if they can find a way to collaborate and coordinate on certain issues.' Speaking at the same session, Professor Jin Keyu from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology also saw bright spots in an otherwise gloomy picture of the US-China rivalry. 'I do not agree with the view that they are in a new Cold War,' she said. She said while China and the US may be politically opposite and economically competitive, there is a need for them to cooperate to provide global public goods. 'There is space to collaborate, whether it's on the risk of artificial intelligence, climate, data transparency, and so forth,' she said. At the session titled 'Geopolitics: An Unfolding Story', moderated by ST Foreign Editor Li Xueying, the panel also discussed the erosion of the 'nuclear taboo', a normative belief that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable, even in situations where it might be strategically advantageous. This concept was brought into sharp focus by recent conflicts. In June, the US and Israel attacked Iran to destroy its nuclear weapons development programme. In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, which found itself less able to defend itself because it had given up its nuclear capabilities decades ago. Professor Happymon Jacob, who teaches nuclear disarmament at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in India, pointed out that while the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons remains, the taboo against the possession of nuclear weapons appears to be collapsing. 'Ukrainians would say we made a mistake in giving up our nuclear weapons,' he said at the same panel. 'The Russians will tell you that we have nuclear weapons, thousands of them. There is no way we are going to be defeated in this war.' He noted how South Korea, faced with the threat of nuclear-armed North Korea, is also thinking about developing nuclear weapons. - The Straits Times/ANN
Straits Times
26-06-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Hope in fraught times: Trump-Xi bond could shift ties for the better, say US experts
Hope in fraught times: Trump-Xi bond could shift ties for the better, say US experts - US President Donald Trump's free hand domestically and open admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping could make him the wild card capable of shifting the relationship between the world's two largest powers from rivalry to cooperation, American scholars have said. Speaking at a session developed in collaboration with The Straits Times at a World Economic Forum event in Tianjin on June 26, Harvard professor Graham Allison pointed out that Mr Trump is not a China hawk. 'If you look at the campaign last year, there were a thousand people running for office in the country in which 80 per cent of the people have a negative view of China,' he said, referring to the US general election in 2024. 'Only one person had positive things to say about China. This was Donald Trump.' Prof Allison noted that Mr Trump had said to Mr Xi that when China and the United States work together, they can solve most of the world's problems. He said he believed that Mr Trump is determined to be a 'great deal maker' and a 'great peacemaker'. 'If he is going to succeed in that mission, the opportunity for Trump and Xi to surprise us on the upside, I think, is enough to be hopeful,' said the national security analyst who has served under former US presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. Prof Allison's optimism stands out in the current climate. Since Mr Trump began his second term in January, the US-China rivalry has intensified – most notably with the US' imposition of unprecedentedly high tariffs on Chinese goods – leading many observers to take a pessimistic view of the world's most consequential relationship. His optimism is also striking, given that he is famous for popularising the 'Thucydides Trap' – a concept that draws upon historical pattern to suggest that conflict becomes likely when an established power feels threatened by a rising power. Another American scholar at the same session shared his optimism. Professor Monica Toft of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy said Mr Trump has significant leeway to take a softer approach on China, given that most Americans are not interested in foreign policy and that Congress and the courts are unlikely to challenge him. 'If President Trump decided he could align US interests more closely with China – without giving away the store – he has both the prerogative and the opportunity to do that,' she said. Prof Toft noted that global politics today is shaped by two strongmen – Mr Trump and Mr Xi – who share a personal rapport. 'They talk to one another, they respect one another, they admire one another,' she said. 'It could be an extraordinary period for humanity if they can find a way to collaborate and coordinate on certain issues.' Speaking at the same session, Professor Jin Keyu from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology also saw bright spots in an otherwise gloomy picture of the US-China rivalry. 'I do not agree with the view that they are in a new Cold War,' she said. She said while China and the US may be politically opposite and economically competitive, there is a need for them to cooperate to provide global public goods. 'There is space to collaborate, whether it's on the risk of artificial intelligence, climate, data transparency, and so forth,' she said. (Clockwise from left) ST Foreign Editor Li Xueying moderating a session with Professor Graham Allison, Professor Jin Keyu, Professor Monica Toft and Professor Happymon Jacob at a World Economic Forum event in Tianjin on June 26. PHOTO: WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM At the session titled 'Geopolitics: An Unfolding Story', moderated by ST Foreign Editor Li Xueying, the panel also discussed the erosion of the 'nuclear taboo', a normative belief that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable, even in situations where it might be strategically advantageous. This concept was brought into sharp focus by recent conflicts. In June, the US and Israel attacked Iran to destroy its nuclear weapons development programme. In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, which found itself less able to defend itself because it had given up its nuclear capabilities decades ago. Professor Happymon Jacob, who teaches nuclear disarmament at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in India, pointed out that while the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons remains, the taboo against the possession of nuclear weapons appears to be collapsing. 'Ukrainians would say we made a mistake in giving up our nuclear weapons,' he said at the same panel. 'The Russians will tell you that we have nuclear weapons, thousands of them. There is no way we are going to be defeated in this war.' He noted how South Korea, faced with the threat of nuclear-armed North Korea, is also thinking about developing nuclear weapons. Yew Lun Tian is a senior foreign correspondent who covers China for The Straits Times. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
New Indian Express
22-05-2025
- Politics
- New Indian Express
Border talks with India and Bhutan advancing, says China's white paper on security
Some countries have grossly interfered in China's internal affairs, causing trouble in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and frequently causing trouble on issues related to Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, it said. Some external forces are deliberately playing the Taiwan card, and the Taiwan independence forces are stubbornly adhering to their separatist positions and taking risks and provocations. Overseas separatist forces such as Tibetan independence and East Turkestan in Xinjiang are frequently active, it said. While highlighting challenges China faces in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, besides Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong-related issues, the paper has stressed the importunate of building a strong military to face the traditional and new security challenges. On Taiwan, which China claims as part of its mainland, the paper said Beijing will never allow any person, any organisation, any political party, at any time, in any form, to separate any piece of Chinese territory from China. We will unswervingly promote the complete reunification of the country, it said. On the strategic front, the paper spoke of challenges posed by the US to contain China and the importance of close China-Russia relations. The Sino-Russia ties are based on non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting third parties, and are not affected by any third party, nor are they interfered with or coerced by external factors, it said. On the China-US rivalry, it said being two major countries neither side can suppress the other from the so-called position of strength or deprive the other side of its legitimate right to development in order to maintain its leading position. The four red lines of the Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, the road system and the right to development cannot be challenged, it said. The Thucydides Trap (meaning a new power rising to challenge the existing power) is not a historical destiny, it said, referring to the US concerns over China's rise to challenge its global dominance. The new Cold War cannot be fought and cannot be won, it said, adding that the containment of China is unwise, undesirable, and will not succeed. China is willing to work with the US to explore the correct way for the two major countries to get along on this planet, for the benefit of both countries and the world, it added. It also said non-traditional security challenges for China are increasing and listed extreme climate disasters besides terrorism, separatism, religious extremism, and major transnational epidemics as serious security threats. Security issues in space, deep sea, polar regions, and cyberspace were listed as major threats. The Asia-Pacific region has become the focus of great power competition. Some countries have strengthened military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, wooed regional partners, built exclusive small groups, and insisted on advancing military deployments including the intermediate-range missile system, seriously exacerbating regional tensions, it added, without naming anyone.
Observer
11-05-2025
- Business
- Observer
Middle powers in the US-China trade war
As US tariffs begin to reshape global trade flows, many countries are worried that a tsunami of discounted Chinese goods, originally destined for America, will hit their shores. To keep them out, especially as recessionary pressures mount, some may be inclined to impose their own tariffs on Chinese imports. In that case, China would be cut off entirely from international trade, delivering an unexpected victory for US President Donald Trump, who would undoubtedly claim credit for this new Great Wall. To avert this scenario, China must pursue short-term policies that align with its long-term goal of building a global governance architecture for a multipolar world. China harbours no illusions that it will be the twenty-first century's hegemon. India will inevitably become a superpower by mid-century. Europe might join their ranks, too, as Trump's might-is-right worldview seems poised to accelerate and deepen European integration. The current Sino-American standoff seemingly reflects a shared understanding that avoiding the Thucydides Trap – when tensions between an incumbent hegemon and a rising power lead to conflict – will require an eventual agreement on respective spheres of influence. Both sides' defensive efforts to expand their global reach have devolved into a crude form of imperialism. But it remains to be seen how the trade war will factor into this contest. The tariffs that the US and China imposed against one another have effectively decoupled their trade. Will countries hit by his 'reciprocal' tariffs be cowed into joining the US sphere of influence as part of bilateral trade deals? The answer is no, so long as China respects its trade partners' right to befriend all superpowers. In such a scenario, the benefits of trading with China remain too large to forgo. But to take advantage of these benefits and maintain their autonomy, middle powers will need to pursue multilateral cooperation. As a first step, middle powers must convince China that it is in its long-term interest to stop the potential fire sale of goods intended for the US market, which means voluntary export restraints. But the Chinese government must also focus on boosting domestic consumption by lowering income and value-added taxes, expanding social-welfare programmes (especially for healthcare, childcare and pensions), and easing the hukou household registration system – which regulates access to social services – in major coastal cities. Moreover, China can generate higher demand for services by attracting more foreign tourists and students, and by incentivising Chinese tourists to travel domestically. To cushion the adjustment pains and lower the budget deficit in the medium term, China should double down on supply-side structural reforms and overhaul the financial sector, which would unleash new productive forces. For example, if market-driven medium-size private banks were permitted to emerge, they could nurture the employment-intensive small and medium-size enterprises that large state-owned banks have traditionally discriminated against. Loosening capital controls would also support the renminbi's internationalisation to the status of the dollar and Shanghai's emergence as a global financial centre on par with London and New York. The escalating US-China trade war, and the competing technological standards that stem from deeper geopolitical fragmentation, will cause substantial damage to middle powers. Being forced into a sphere of influence would erode these countries' sovereignty and limit their export markets. To avoid becoming pawns in a proxy war, middle powers should form a union of independent buffer states based on the same principles as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), together with Japan and South Korea, should propose an Atlantic-Pacific Sustainability Pact to the European Union and the United Kingdom. Practicing open regionalism, APSP would have three main tasks. The first would be to create a free-trade area that is open to all countries, with an eye to building the biggest possible integrated market. Asean members, Japan and South Korea could then merge the main Asia-Pacific trade agreements under the economic umbrella of APSP. The second task would be to institute a nonpartisan peace caucus in the UN and other global and regional forums to prevent tensions between the US and China (as well as Russia) from impeding international coordination on shared global problems such as climate change and pandemics. Lastly, APSP would do well to establish a development agency whereby richer members could provide technical and financial support to poorer members' efforts to achieve net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions, protect their biodiversity and accelerate economic growth. This would offset the assistance that competing superpowers use to influence poor countries. As Asean economies catch up with those in the Global North, their combined GDP could equal that of the EU and the UK by 2045. In such a scenario, APSP's economic might would be so great that the US and China would have to join the trade partnership or else risk defeat from self-isolation. Cooperative multilateralism is middle powers' best hope for mitigating the fallout from the Sino-American cold war; and it might even eventually crowd out this conflict. At a minimum, cooperative multilateralism by middle powers would ensure peaceful global governance as the international order transitions from a unipolar world to a multipolar world. @Project Syndicate, 2025 Wing Thye Woo The writer is Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of California, Davis, is University Chair Professor at the China Economic Research Institute at Liaoning University
South China Morning Post
08-05-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
Why China has refused to back down in the face of Trump's tariffs
Trying to predict any country's international behaviour is fraught with challenges. That is even more the case when that country's political system is opaque, as is China's. We depend on clues, turns of phrases drawn from leaders' speeches, shards of evidence gleaned from people on the ground, and various theories (or biases in disguise). Advertisement We have spent much time analysing China's geostrategic ambitions. Much ink has been spilled on the Thucydides Trap , the notion of 'peak power' or the radical Project 2025 that says the China challenge 'is rooted in China's strategic culture and not just the Marxism-Leninism of the [Chinese Communist Party], meaning that internal culture and civil society will never deliver a more normative nation'. But we have spent more time on China's capabilities than sought out what China actually desires. China wants many things. Most are to some degree debatable, and reasonable people can disagree. But the one thing China has wanted for the better part of the past two centuries is quite simple – to stand up. That is, China desires to re-establish its seat at the table governing the world order, a desire that arose out of an era of colonialism that began China's slide into anarchy and autarky. The country eventually re-emerged from this, but for a long time, China's global re-emergence had an asterisk attached to it; it was conditional. To resist the Soviet threat, China had to establish rapprochement with the United States. To grow out of the planned economy, China desperately needed to draw on the managerial and financial expertise of the West and the East Asian 'tiger' economies Advertisement Even the oft-used prefix, zhongguo tese de ('with Chinese characteristics'), was premised on improving upon something invented elsewhere. This was in line with Deng Xiaoping's caution, tao guang yang hui : keep a low profile and bide one's time.
