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Politico
32 minutes ago
- Business
- Politico
How the megabill could fall apart
Republican leaders are expecting to finish up their domestic-policy megabill the same way they've advanced it this far: by tweaking their plans for President Donald Trump's legislative agenda and daring holdouts to vote against it. It might work, and GOP leaders are projecting confidence that the bill will land on Trump's desk in time to meet their arbitrary July 4 target. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Friday he expects his chamber to start voting as soon as Saturday. But there are reasons the deadline could slip, and several of them were on display this week as Republicans dug in for the final scramble of negotiations. For one, members continue to fight jealously to keep personal priorities in the bill — including parts of a $4 trillion package of tax cuts set to affect virtually the entire U.S. economy. Meanwhile, other lawmakers who have made the megabill into an ideological litmus test on federal spending and budget deficits are facing a put-up-or-shut-up moment after repeatedly drawing red lines and then moving forward with the legislation anyway. Finally, a handful of key lawmakers are facing what could be existential political stakes as they brace for tough re-election contests in next year's midterms. Many are balking at having to vote on cutbacks to safety-net programs, clean-energy projects and other federal assistance their states and constituents rely on. Together, it's turned the megabill's endgame into a high-wire act — and Thune is keeping the pressure on, expecting his members will want to stay on the rope. 'We've cussed it. We've discussed it,' Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Friday. 'But we're gradually going from thoughtful, rational deliberation into the foothills of jackassery. I mean, we're talking about the same thing over and over and over.' Thune, along with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, have all calculated that allowing more debate will only work against them. They've already used the threat of a federal default later this summer to move the process along — the bill includes a debt-ceiling increase — but the Independence Day deadline has emerged as a tantalizing symbolic target. Problem is, with groups of members digging in, the state of the negotiations isn't necessarily jibing with that timeline. Thune wouldn't say Friday whether he had the votes to even start debate: 'We'll find out.' Among the biggest problems for Thune going into Saturday are four GOP fiscal hawks: Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is an all-but-guaranteed 'no' vote, while Sens. Mike Lee of Utah, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Rick Scott of Florida are each in close touch with Trump and pledging to act in unison. All of them have made dire warnings about the state of the nation's finances, and they have pushed for much deeper spending cuts than what has been on offer. They have also been coordinating with members of the House Freedom Caucus, the hard-right group that has made similar fiscal demands. Every Freedom Caucus member save for Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), its chair, has voted to advance the megabill. But they've been strategizing about how to bend the legislation in their direction and trying to warn they will vote against the Senate bill if it moves too far in the other direction. Rep. Eric Burlison of Missouri, one of 30 House Republicans who warned senators to abide by the House bill's fiscal framework, said Friday he remained in a dug-in 'no' vote on the Senate bill. He said he was even more adamant about his position given the Senate parliamentarian had effectively vetoed a provision he secured that would make it easier to obtain rifles and silencers. 'They just need to understand that if they don't meet that and they send us back something that blows up the deficit, it's not going to pass -- period,' Burlison said. 'And we mean it.' Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a ringleader of the fiscal conservatives, told reporters Friday there's a 'good number' of 'no' votes among Republicans in the House, 'and I think the Senate knows that.' "I can't go back to my people and say we increased the deficit a trillion dollars,' he said. White House officials have ratcheted up their efforts to win over the holdouts. Deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller has been calling Freedom Caucus members this week to hear out their concerns. So far, he's largely been in 'listening mode,' according to two Republicans granted anonymity to discuss the private conversations. Trump himself is 'more fielding calls than making them' at this point, according to a senior White House official granted anonymity to describe the president's lobbying. He met Thursday with Johnson and Thune, and the official said the individual whipping of members would begin soon enough. The message will be simple, the person said: 'You can vote to end your career or not.' That's exactly what's on the minds of several in-cycle senators, except they fear it's a yes vote that could cost them re-election next year. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina openly warned his colleagues this week he will lose his reelection bid if they move forward with Medicaid provisions as currently drafted — in particular a curtailing of medical provider taxes, the mechanism the vast majority of states use to finance their Medicaid programs. 'Trust me when I tell you, my Republican colleagues and leadership of the legislature are not going to raise taxes to fill the gap, and even if they could, the number is too high,' Tillis said Friday, emphasizing he would not vote to start debate on the bill until the matter is addressed. Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Susan Collins of Maine, who are up for re-election next year, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who is up in 2028, are also closely following the Medicaid language. Leaders have so far offered a $15 billion fund to offset the provider tax changes and protect vulnerable hospitals, but Collins is pushing for $100 billion. They have taken heart from reports that Trump is sympathetic to their position and would prefer the Senate retreat to the less drastic House provider tax proposal. But GOP leaders are intent on preserving the hundreds of billions of dollars in savings attached to the provision — in part to preserve a trio of permanent business tax breaks backed by key members of the Senate Finance Committee. They're also facing a crunch from the small but vocal group of blue-state House Republicans pushing for a larger state-and-local-tax deduction. Their demands could add another $350 billion in cost to the Senate bill, though there is a tentative deal to cut that figure in half. After meeting with Trump Thursday, Thune said he believes the president has no strong attachment to the Medicaid provision and just wants whatever bill can get to his desk. He's privately told Senate Republicans that he believes the House will take up and pass whatever the Senate sends over. In other words, even if Thune's gamble succeeds on his side of the Capitol, Johnson might soon be throwing the dice himself. 'Mike is nervous as a pregnant nun right now — he doesn't know if he can get what we're doing past his House," Kennedy said. "He wanted us understandably not to touch a thing in the House bill — that wasn't going to happen in this lifetime." Dasha Burns, Cassandra Dumay and David Lim contributed to this report.
USA Today
2 hours ago
- Business
- USA Today
Senate releases latest version on Trump's big bill. Next step: Weekend votes?
Senate Republicans have sparred with each other and the parliamentarian over a variety of provisions in the sweeping legislation. WASHINGTON - President Donald Trump's sweeping tax, spending and policy bill is heading for a climatic weekend showdown on the Senate floor after Republicans near midnight on June 28 released more text of a plan that calls for cuts to Medicaid, increases in immigration spending and the end of taxes on tips and overtime wages. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been working to deliver Trump a major legislative win, while navigating conflicting concerns from some of his fellow Republicans about how the bill could impact the federal deficit, health care coverage for low-income constituents and their own political popularity. The South Dakota senator told reporters as he left the U.S. Capitol on June 27 that he hopes to begin a marathon floor debate on June 28 but also acknowledged he may not have yet cobbled together the necessary support from inside his GOP ranks to officially begin the process. Thune and Trump face complications after Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough's rulings on what was and was not within the scope of legislation that the president and Republicans have dubbed the "big, beautiful bill." MacDonough over the last several days has found several Senate GOP provisions in violation, including attempts to repeal federal food aid for noncitizens, multiple measures softening environmental regulations and restrictions on federal judges' ability to block government policies. Addressing many of those rulings, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham released significant portions of the new bill near midnight. "If you like higher taxes, open borders, a weak military and unchecked government spending, this bill is your nightmare," the South Carolina Republican said, adding that the legislation "contains all of President Trump's domestic economic priorities." Thune's next hurdle will be rounding up enough support to meet the 51-yes-vote threshold to begin debate, with numerous members of his Republican conference expressing reservations as of late June 27 and no Democrats signaling he'll have their support. In the Capitol heading into the weekend, several Republicans said they were itching to get going with the debate. "We're gradually going from thoughtful, rational deliberation into the foothills of jackassery," Sen. John Kennedy, R-Lousiana, told reporters on June 27. "We're talking about the same things over and over and over. It's clear we're not going to (have) unanimity on some of this. That's why God made votes." For now, the timing of the first vote remains unclear but the Senate is scheduled to convene at 2 p.m. ET for a rare Saturday session on June 28. If and when the Senate does approve the legislation, it will need to be reconciled with the House, which narrowly passed a first version in May. Trump has pressed Senate Republicans to stay on his ambitious timeline to complete their work and get it back through the House in time for the measure to be on his desk for signature into law by July 4. But the president and House Speaker Mike Johnson also are acknowledging their immediate ambitions might not become reality amid deep internal GOP policy disputes and complex Senate rules that have sent the mega bill through the legislative shredder.
Politico
11 hours ago
- Business
- Politico
Trump pushes Thune to crack down on wind and solar in megabill
President Donald Trump is urging Senate Majority Leader John Thune to crack down on tax credits for wind and solar energy as part of the GOP megabill, siding with House conservatives who want to phase out those credits more quickly, according to three people familiar with the negotiations. The late-stage effort has involved direct conversations between Trump and Thune over the past two days. The intervention from Trump centers around a technical provision that could determine whether hundreds of planned projects are able to qualify for the wind and solar incentives, according to the people granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the conversations. The president's involvement has emerged as a complicating factor as Republicans aim to start voting on the megabill as soon as Saturday. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a close Trump ally, confirmed that Trump is directly involved in the push to further temper the Inflation Reduction Act credits. 'I talked to POTUS about it this morning and he certainly wants the renewables out ASAP,' Cramer said Friday. The approach pushed by Trump would match restrictive language in the House-passed reconciliation bill, H.R. 1, that would determine eligibility for wind and solar investment and production tax credits based on when those projects enter into service. It's a departure from Senate Finance Committee language backed by moderates allowing projects to receive credits based on when they begin construction. It's unclear whether Thune plans to include the so-called 'placed in service' standard in the final bill text. Doing so would put moderate senators who have pushed a slower schedule for sunsetting those incentives in a major bind, forcing them to choose between rejecting Trump's agenda or allowing the gutting of tax credits that could lead to canceled projects, job losses and higher electricity prices in their states. Thune's office and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday. Trump's new push follows his Truth Social post last weekend declaring, 'I HATE 'GREEN TAX CREDITS' IN THE GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL.' Renewable energy industry officials and advocates argue that a 'placed in service' requirement is difficult for energy project developers because their timelines could be derailed by permitting delays, snags in connecting projects to the grid and other factors outside their control. Such a requirement would functionally end the credits for many planned projects, they say. Reverting to more restrictive placed in service language would likely see pushback from moderate senators such as Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who said Thursday that such a move would be 'disastrous in my state.' Another moderate who has pushed back on IRA rollbacks, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), declined to say Friday night whether he had heard about a decision on placed in service language, but called the Senate Finance Committee's approach 'a more rational way of doing it.' 'There are lawsuits, regulatory hurdles and other things that would make it virtually impossible to get [projects] in service' even if they are essentially complete and would otherwise qualify, Tillis said. Some Senate conservatives have backed the change, which they said will help keep Republicans' campaign promise to end the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said earlier this week 'there is a strong commitment to end the Green New Deal subsidies by the end of President Trump's term' — an objective, he said, 'that we're working hard to accomplish.' The effort has been supported by outside conservative voices in recent days, including Alex Epstein, a vocal opponent of wind and solar subsidies who has met with Senate Republicans in recent weeks. Epstein said Friday night that Trump is 'aware that the Senate had watered down in some significant way what the House did.' But he said moving to a placed in service standard is not a done deal and he is 'not letting up myself until I see a law with this in it.' Leading Trump officials like Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who also chairs the National Energy Dominance Council, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, have also repeatedly criticized wind and solar energy, arguing those intermittent resources are unreliable and overly reliant on tax subsidies. In a post to X Friday night, Burgum wrote that Trump 'promised to reverse the Biden administration's disastrous energy policies, and the One Big Beautiful Bill delivers on this promise by ending the Green New Scam and investing in reliable, affordable baseload power!'
NBC News
16 hours ago
- Business
- NBC News
Senate Republicans eye weekend votes on Trump's massive bill as tensions run high
WASHINGTON — Senate Republican leaders are hoping to start voting on their massive domestic policy bill on Saturday, even as major pieces of it have yet to be finalized. GOP senators held a lengthy lunch meeting Friday with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as the process grows messy and acrimonious with a host of conflicting demands persisting within the party. Still, Republican leaders put members on notice that Senate votes were imminent. 'My expectation is: At some point tomorrow we'll be ready to go,' Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said after the Friday meeting, although he wouldn't say whether he has the 51 votes needed to begin debate. 'We'll find out tomorrow,' Thune said, as Republicans race toward a self-imposed July 4 deadline to send the bill to President Donald Trump's desk. While senators have been told to be prepared for the first vote on Saturday at noon, Thune conceded that timing is "aspirational.' Some senators complained that they hadn't seen the text of the bill they're being asked to vote on, with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., predicting that it may not come out until "right before" the vote. Others have vented about a host of provisions invalidated by the Senate parliamentarian as failing to comply with the chamber's budget rules for bypassing the 60-vote threshold — including spending cuts to Medicaid and Obamacare and immigration-related provisions. If the motion to proceed passes, that would trigger up to 20 hours of debate on the bill before a process where senators can offer unlimited amendments, known as a "vote-a-rama," before a final vote. Bessent told reporters Friday that Republicans are "very, very close" to agreement on how to resolve one of the big sticking points of the package: the state and local tax deduction cap. The emerging plan is to impose a $40,000 "SALT" cap for just five years, instead of the 10 years in the House-passed legislation, according to Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D. That would lower the sticker price of the legislation as Republicans scramble to find ways to limit red ink. "We're getting really close to landing the plane," said Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., who has been helping to negotiate a SALT deal between the White House, senators and House Republicans from high-tax blue states. There also will be a fund to mitigate the pain of the bill's Medicaid cuts for rural hospitals, senators said, though the size of it remained unclear. It's expected to be larger than a proposed $15 billion. Mullin said it was helpful to have Republican senators, Johnson and Bessent all in one room as they tried to hammer out unresolved issues. "Having the speaker, having the secretary here, and having Thune in the room really put the leaders there to make the decisions and clarify a lot of things for us," said Mullin, who also spent time with Trump at the White House Thursday night. "The president has been extremely accessible," he added. "Anybody that needed to call him could get ahold of him. He's been fully engaged." Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., slammed Republicans' plans to 'jam it through' as early as this weekend, while citing recent polling data that shows the emerging bill is unpopular. 'Americans hate this bill,' Schumer told reporters on Friday afternoon. "It steals their Medicaid. It jacks up their premiums. It takes away their jobs and gives trillions away to billionaires and special interests. So, of course Republicans are scrambling and rushing. They know their bill is terrible.' Dubbed by Trump as the 'one big, beautiful bill,' the sweeping package would extend the president's expiring tax cuts passed in 2017, and it includes an infusion of money to expand the military, beef up border security and carry out his mass deportation plans. It would also fulfill two of Trump's campaign promises: eliminating taxes on tips and overtime work. The version of the bill the House passed in May is projected to add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. If the Senate passes the bill, it will need to go back through the House before Trump can sign it into law. Trump contradicted himself on Friday about the July 4 deadline for passage. During a press conference, he said that Independence Day was "not the end all" for the bill. But just hours later, Trump took to Truth Social and clarified he wanted it done by next week. "The Great Republicans in the U.S. Senate are working all weekend to finish our 'ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,'" Trump wrote. "The House of Representatives must be ready to send it to my desk before July 4th — We can get it done." Leaving the Senate lunch, Johnson said Republicans were getting "very close to a final product." Asked if the July 4 deadline was still doable, Johnson replied: "I believe so." Some senators were more certain of meeting Trump's deadline. 'We're going to move forward. We're going to pass this bill before July the 4th. We're going to get it to President Trump's desk," said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who is close to Trump. "I've never been more confident of the bill passing than right now.'
17 hours ago
- Business
'Very close to a final product': Senate GOP's version of Trump's megabill nears finish line
With a week until a July Fourth deadline for Congress to get President Donald Trump's megabill passed, Senate Republicans are going over the final sticking points -- with the end in sight and a potential vote this weekend. On Friday afternoon, Senate Republicans met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called the passage of the bill the "single most important economic thing we're going to do this year." House Speaker Mike Johnson chewed over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act with Senate Republicans at the closed-door lunch on Friday, telling reporters afterward that the Senate's version of the legislation is almost done. "We had a great discussion about a lot of important issues, and I feel like we're getting very close to a final product," Johnson said as he left the meeting. While the Senate grapples with the state and local tax provision, Johnson said he believes senators are "very, very close to closing that issue out." The Senate version of the bill is expected to hit the Senate floor on Saturday afternoon. It begins with a procedural vote on the motion to proceed to the bill, which requires a simple majority of votes to pass. Assuming the bill gets the necessary votes to proceed, there are up to 20 hours of debate, evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans will likely yield back most of their ten hours. Democrats will likely use close to all of it. After an unlimited series of amendment votes, the Senate could vote on the final passage of the bill at some point on Sunday. Still, some roadblocks remain. The Senate parliamentarian on Thursday rejected a Medicaid provision in the bill, which is a major blow to Senate Republicans' efforts. Also, Senate Majority Leader John Thune can afford to lose only three Republican votes when the bill goes to the Senate floor, given unified Democratic opposition in the Senate. "All of it depends on…we've got a few things we're waiting on, outcomes from the parliamentarian on, but if we could get some of those questions issues landed, and my expectation is at some point tomorrow, we'll be ready to go," Thune said Friday. Johnson and Thune met with Trump Thursday night in the Oval Office about the tax and immigration bill as Congress barrels toward its self-imposed Fourth of July deadline. "We had a long discussion about … where the bill stands and its status. And they are -- we are very, very close, and Leader Thune has confidence that they could get the job done by this weekend, and we certainly are hopeful for that," Johnson said about the Thursday meeting. Earlier Friday, Johnson suggested the Fourth of July deadline could slide, saying "it's possible" that the deadline could change -- although he said he wanted to remain committed to the July Fourth goal. However, later in the day, Johnson stuck to Independence Day. "That's been our goal all along, and it hasn't changed," the speaker said, adding that "the House is ready to act as soon as the Senate does." After fudging his long-standing, self-imposed July Fourth deadline for Congress to pass his massive immigration and tax bill, Trump later doubled down on the date in a social media post. "The House of Representatives must be ready to send it to my desk before July 4th -- We can get it done," the president wrote. Earlier, when asked about the deadline during a news conference in the White House briefing room, the president said "it's not the end all" and that "it can go longer." On Thursday, congressional leaders and the administration touted the benefits of the package during a celebration in the East Room of the White House. As the Senate aims to move forward this weekend with the megabill, House leaders told members in a formal notice "pending Senate action on H.R. 1, votes on the One Big Beautiful Bill are expected in the House next week" -- interrupting a planned weeklong Independence Day recess. "Further information regarding the timing of votes will be provided as soon as possible, and Members will be given a minimum of 48 hours' notice prior to any votes in the House," the notice states. Earlier this week, Trump told members of Congress that they would have to forgo vacations to get the bill to his desk.
