Latest news with #TieVolatilityandTiltIndex
India Today
5 days ago
- Business
- India Today
Necktie Nomics: Can the RBI Governor's tie colour predict rate moves?
Can the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor's choice of tie colour really hint at whether interest rates will go up, down or stay the same? It sounds amusing, but an SBI report has explored this quirky link—calling it 'Necktie Nomics: When Fashion Meets Fiscal Signals'.The said report explores this idea, suggesting that, in a parallel universe, ties guide monetary policy along with inflation and looked at the ties worn by the RBI Governor during Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings. Instead of only watching inflation numbers or GDP data, they turned their attention to the shades of silk draped around the Governor's COOL, DARK OR MIXED - WHAT THE TIES MEANThe report grouped ties into four colour tones, warm, cool, dark and mixed. Warm shades like red, peach, coral and orange were found to be linked with hawkish policies, meaning higher chances of rate hikes. Cool tones like blue, light blue, royal blue and aqua suggested no major change in dark ties, think black, dark blue and black with silver, didn't hint at a direction but rather signalled a decisive move, whether up or down. Mixed shades like purple or yellow were the trickiest, showing the least clear pattern and the highest chance of IT WORKSTo test their theory, the team created a 'Tie Volatility and Tilt Index' (TVTI) to measure both the directional signal and its consistency. Then, they matched these with the tie colours to see if a pattern really findings? Warm ties often leaned towards rate hikes, dark ties pointed to a definite decision (like the recent big 50 bps cut), and cool ties usually meant no changes. Mixed ties suggested the highest volatility and lowest OR FOLKLORE?No one's claiming ties trump inflation or growth figures. But in a world full of surprises, could a tie offer a tiny clue? Maybe. Or maybe it's just a fun way to remind us that sometimes, even monetary policy can have a lighter next time the RBI Governor steps up to announce a rate decision, don't just look at the graphs, take a glance at the tie too. Who knows, it might just give you a hint.- EndsMust Watch advertisement
NDTV
5 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
Can RBI Governor's Tie Colour Predict India's Fiscal Policy? SBI Report Says...
Economists across the globe have to crunch numbers to predict the policy decisions by central banking institutions, but new research by the State Bank of India (SBI) suggests that there might be a simple methodology, especially in the Indian context. The colour of the necktie worn by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor could hint at the upcoming monetary policy decisions. The report posits that in an alternate universe, the monetary policy doesn't just follow inflation or GDP, it follows the governor's wardrobe. "When repo decisions are made, it's not just models and mandates that matter, but the shade of silk around the RBI Governor's neck," reads the lighthearted report under the section, Necktie Nomics: When Fashion Meets Fiscal Signals. The report draws on psychological theory and past policy announcements to examine whether there could be a pattern between necktie tones and interest rate actions. It breaks down the tie colours worn by the RBI governor into four tone categories: Warm: Red, peach, orange, coral Cool: Blue, aqua, light blue, royal blue Dark: Black, dark blue, black with silver Mixed: Purple, yellow While the warm neckties are tied to hawkish policies, leading to rate hikes, the dark tones suggest more decisiveness. "In the uncertainties besieged world, Dark looks more associated with decisiveness as it clearly happened in the recent jumbo rate cut of 50 bps," the report highlighted. As for cool tones, the monetary policies remain unchanged, while mixed colour neckties were deemed the least predictable, with the highest variation in outcomes. Tie Volatility Index The report then introduces the Tie Volatility and Tilt Index (TVTI) -- a metric blending a tone's average policy direction with how consistently it points that way. The report acknowledges its own light-hearted nature, noting that these findings should be "taken with a pinch of sugar". It adds that when certain words like "growth" start appearing in the governor's speeches, instead of "inflation", it hints towards a real shift in the central bank's priorities, translating into action.
Hindustan Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Can the RBI governor's tie colour predict rate moves? What SBI report says
In an alternate monetary universe imagined by SBI Research, the colour of the necktie around the RBI governor's neck might speak louder than spreadsheets. In a recent report titled The Monetary Multiverse, SBI Research has published a playful exploration of whether the colour of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor's necktie can hint at upcoming monetary policy decisions. Necktie Nomics: How tie colours could affect monetary policy(SBI) SBI Research warned that everything in the report should be taken 'on a lighter note'. 'Imagine a world where interest rates aren't determined by models, mandates or macroeconomic indicators—but by midnight tweets, personal equations and possibly necktie colours,' reads the opening sentence of the report, which then goes on to explore how certain words in the governor's speeches could indicate a policy shift, and how the colour of his necktie could affect repo rates. Necktie Nomics While firmly tongue-in-cheek, the report draws on psychological theory and past policy announcements to examine whether there could be a pattern between necktie tones and interest rate actions. The section titled 'Necktie Nomics: When Fashion Meets Fiscal Signals' breaks down tie colours worn by the RBI governor into four tone categories: Warm (reds, peach, orange), Cool (blues, aqua), Dark (black, navy), and Mixed (purple, yellow). What colours could mean According to the analysis, warm tones were slightly hawkish – more likely to appear during rate hikes. Cool tones were associated with neutral stances, often preceding no change in the repo rate. Dark colours seemed to signal decisiveness, showing up during significant moves like the recent 50-basis-point cut. Mixed tones, finally, were deemed the least predictable, with the highest variation in outcomes. The SBI Research team then introduced Tie Volatility and Tilt Index (TVTI). This metric blends a tone's average policy direction with how consistently it points that way. A high score suggests the colour sends a strong and reliable signal. For example, red and coral ties leaned hawkish, while light blues consistently mapped to periods of no change. The report acknowledges its own light-hearted nature, noting that these findings should be 'taken with a pinch of sugar.' However, it did note that 'in the uncertainties besieged world, Dark looks more associated with decisiveness as it clearly happened in the recent jumbo rate cut of 50 bps' – referring to the dark-coloured tie that Governor Sanjay Malhotra while announcing a surprise 50 bps rate cut last month.
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
RBI Governor's tie and speech hints at policy tilt, says SBI in light-hearted report
In an unconventional take on central bank signalling, a recent Business Standard report highlights how State Bank of India (SBI) analysts are decoding not just the RBI's policy language, but also Governor Sanjay Malhotra's tie colours, to assess monetary direction. According to SBI's latest research note, The Monetary Multiverse, the use of the word 'growth' surged in the June 2025 monetary policy statement, appearing 24 times. This increased focus on growth, analysts say, preceded a 50-basis point rate cut, suggesting a potential shift in policy priorities. SBI, however, noted that its analysis is 'to be taken on a lighter note'. Still, the frequency of words like 'growth' and 'inflation', visualised via word clouds, can reflect a central bank's tilt. A higher mention of 'growth', for instance, may signal a more accommodative stance. The report also introduces 'Necktie Nomics': a data-backed (if playful) analysis linking the RBI Governor's tie colours to rate actions. The report read, 'In this alternate universe, monetary policy doesn't just follow inflation or GDP, it follows the Governor's wardrobe. When repo decisions are made, it's not just models and mandates that matter, but the shade of silk around the RBI Governor's neck.' Warm (red, orange): Tied to a hawkish bias and more rate hikes Tied to a hawkish bias and more rate hikes Cool (blue, aqua): Typically aligned with status quo decisions Typically aligned with status quo decisions Dark (black, navy): Not linked to a specific direction, but often worn during decisive policy actions Not linked to a specific direction, but often worn during decisive policy actions Mixed (purple, yellow): Associated with high policy unpredictability SBI then created a Tie Volatility and Tilt Index (TVTI), which combines the likelihood of a rate action with its consistency across similar tone categories. The report notes that the dark tie worn by the Governor during the recent 50 bps rate cut fits the 'decisive action' theory. The report notes that while such indicators are not intended to replace macroeconomic models, they provide an interesting, albeit unconventional, perspective on interpreting central bank behaviour.
