21-07-2025
Buy Or Sell Philip Morris Stock Ahead Of Its Q2 Earnings?
AFP PHOTO/Timothy A. CLARY
Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) is set to disclose its earnings on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. Reviewing the data from the past five years, Philip Morris stock has demonstrated positive one-day returns following earnings reports in 60% of cases. The median positive return recorded was 3.2%, with the highest one-day positive return reaching 10.9%.
For traders focusing on events, while actual results compared to consensus and expectations are critical, recognizing these historical trends can offer a strategic edge. Two key strategies may be utilized:
Experts expect Philip Morris to report earnings of $1.86 per share on revenues of $10.33 billion. These projections surpass the results from the same quarter last year, which reported earnings of $1.59 per share on sales of $9.47 billion.
From a fundamental viewpoint, the firm currently possesses a market capitalization of $285 billion. In the previous twelve months, Philip Morris generated $38 billion in revenue, attaining $14 billion in operating profits and a net income of $7.6 billion.
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Philip Morris International's Historical Probabilities Of Positive Post-Earnings Returns
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Further data regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings
Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the highest correlation, a trader can take a "long" position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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