05-06-2025
Who would govern Sweden if an election were held today?
With just over a year to go until Sweden's next election, a key poll suggests that the centre-left Social Democrats may take a decisive leap forward.
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If an election were held today, the Social Democrats would get 36.2 percent of the vote, according to number-crunching state agency Statistics Sweden's survey – a 5.9 point increase on the 2022 election.
The ruling Moderates, on the other hand, would only get 18.3 percent, 0.8 percentage points down on the last election, although that decrease is not statistically significant.
They would, on the other hand, by a tiny margin, claw back the spot as Sweden's second-largest party from the far-right Sweden Democrats, who would take the worst hit out of all the parties compared to the 2022 election, with a -2.5 point drop in support to 18 percent.
'The Swedish people are clear about wanting to see Magdalena Andersson as prime minister,' the Social Democrat's party secretary, Tobias Baudin, told the TT newswire.
But he cautioned that the election, in September 2026, is still over a year off.
'This is a poll, but the decision will be made on election day. We're then going to lead the next government,' he said, saying the party wouldn't be resting on its laurels until then.
The Sweden Democrats' deputy party secretary, Fredrik Lindahl, said voters would change their minds once his party's collaboration with the government starts to yield results.
'We think voters will see it and appreciate our alternative,' he told TT.
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Out of the five smaller parties, the left side fared the best in the poll, with the Left Party claiming 7.1 percent of the vote and the Green Party 6.5 percent. The Centre Party – who is currently collaborating mainly with the centre-left – would get 5.5 percent.
The two parties that also make up the right-wing government coalition, however, would not manage to get enough votes to make it across the four-percent parliamentary threshold. The Christian Democrats would get 3.4 percent and the Liberals 2.8 percent.
This means that even if the Centre Party were to pull its reluctant support of the centre-left, or switch sides altogether, the left bloc would still win more seats than the right bloc.
It's worth noting however that some of the smaller parties often poll below the parliamentary threshold in-between elections, but manage to secure enough votes on voting day.
Statistics Sweden's party sympathy poll is only carried out once a year and is one of Sweden's biggest political public opinion polls. More than 9,000 voters were questioned between April 29th and May 28th.
