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CNBC
12-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
These are America's 10 strongest state economies best prepared for a recession
With the U.S. economy solid but still facing elevated risk of recession — or, as President Trump described it in May, in a "transition period" — states are pitching themselves as the most stable place for companies to locate no matter what happens to the economy. "Multiple international headquarters, hundreds of billions of committed investments across a variety of industries and the economy to handle it all," the Indiana Economic Development Corporation promises. "Georgia job creation remains strong," that state's Department of Economic Development assures. "The State of Georgia is celebrating another year of sustained momentum for business recruitment and expansions." "Wisconsin is one of the most fiscally responsible states in the nation," the state's Economic Development Corporation says. A CNBC analysis of all 50 state economic development websites finds that the economy — and factors relating to it such as job growth, foreign direct investment and the housing market — are the most frequently mentioned selling point this year. Economy popped up 222 times in our tally, well ahead of the next most mentioned factor, infrastructure, at 203. Under the methodology for CNBC's annual business competitiveness study, America's Top States for Business, that makes Economy the heaviest weighted category in 2025. But measuring state economies is more challenging than usual this year. Sweeping federal budget cuts are threatening to throw sand in the gears of an economic engine in many states. And tariffs — so far, a wildly moving target — are already crimping the economies of states that depend on international commerce. "If you don't know what your product is going to cost, if you don't know if your export market is going to be there in six months, if you don't understand the terms that you're trading on, it makes it really hard to say, 'Okay, we're gonna take a risk and invest in this new product line'," said Dan Anthony, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington, D.C.-based economic data firm. To score each state's economy in this year's Top States for Business study, we considered traditional measures such as state gross domestic product growth, job growth, state fiscal health, the number of major corporations headquartered in each state, and the strength of the local housing market. But we also considered how dependent each state is on a shrinking federal government for spending and hiring. And we considered each state's exposure to a trade war, using data compiled for us by Trade Partnership Worldwide. "The big things that we start out looking at is just really exposure to international trade, and particularly the goods trades," Anthony said. In addition, the data looks specifically at states' exposure to China, which is at the heart of the trade war. Some states are particularly vulnerable should the economy take a turn for the worse. But these states have what it takes to navigate a recession. While The Palmetto State is among the states most vulnerable to increased tariffs — international goods trade made up one-third of its GDP last year — South Carolina enters this unsettled period with one of the fastest growing economies in the nation, and some of the best job growth. Notably, that job growth is not occurring in the manufacturing sector, including the auto industry, where tariff increases could hit hard. Instead, the state's biggest job growth is in construction, where employment rose more than 7% year-over-year in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal revenue made up about 33% of the state budget last year, roughly in line with the national average. 2025 Economy Score: 274 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B-) GDP (2024): $273.3 billion (+4.2%) Job Growth (2024): +2.4% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 33% International Goods Trade (2024): $91.4 billion (33.4% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: None The Peach State's diverse economy will come in handy should the national economy worsen. Seventeen companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are headquartered in Georgia, and while the home of the Port of Savannah is heavily dependent on international trade, there is plenty of other business to take up the slack in a slowdown. Georgia entered 2025 with solid economic growth, though job growth dropped off considerably. Hiring in most sectors, except for health care, has leveled off, or, in some cases, declined. 2025 Economy Score: 277 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B) GDP (2024): $701 billion (+3.4%) Job Growth (2024): +0.9% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 29% International Goods Trade (2024): $197.6 billion (28.2% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Home Depot, Delta Airlines, Coca-Cola The Beehive State's economy was buzzing last year — leading the nation in GDP growth, and near the top for job growth. Utah's tech sector is a major driver, but some of the biggest job gains occurred in construction as the state tries to get ahead of a severe housing shortage. For years, landlocked Utah has been pursuing the concept of an "inland port" to better link its dynamic economy to the rest of the world. The idea has morphed from a single, giant facility to 13 smaller ones around the state, but now, Utah's embrace of international trade could backfire on the state's economy. Utah's international goods trade makes up nearly 17% of state GDP. And Trade Partnership Worldwide estimates that retaliatory tariffs from other countries could increase Utah business costs by up to 30%. 2025 Economy Score: 279 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B) GDP (2024): $235.7 billion (+4.5%) Job Growth (2024): 1.7% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 29% International Goods Trade (2024): $40 billion (16.9% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Extra Space Storage The Gem State's economy continues to dazzle, with solid growth last year. The state's housing market, which has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in recent years, has stabilized nicely for now, and new home construction is taking off. Idaho is also relatively insulated from tariffs, with limited international trade and tiny exposure to China. But Idaho depends on the federal government for a comparatively large share of state spending. In February, Republican Gov. Brad Little warned of a potential "economic shock" from the Trump budget cuts, but said Idaho had the wherewithal to withstand it. 2025 Economy Score: 288 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B) GDP (2024): $99.6 billion (+3.9%) Job Growth (2024): 1.5% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 40% International Goods Trade (2024): $13.5 billion (13.6% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Micron Technology, Lamb Weston Holdings The Evergreen State is fertile ground for entrepreneurs. A new business starting up in Washington stands a better chance of survival than in any other state, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Simply Business, a national insurance marketplace. Researchers found that businesses in the state stand an 86.4% chance of surviving their first year, 89.3% in their second year, and 91.8% in their third year. The broader economy in Washington was in the top five for growth last year, though job growth has slowed since the beginning of this year. The state is relatively well insulated from federal budget cuts, but it would be on the front lines of a trade war with China. With China accounting for more than 16% of Washington's international goods trade, it is the fourth most exposed state. 2025 Economy Score: 296 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B+) GDP (2024): $702 billion (+3.7%) Job Growth (2024): 1.7% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 26% International Goods Trade (2024): $109.6 billion (15.6% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Amazon, Microsoft, Costco The size and scope of the Empire State's economy should help to insulate it somewhat from the impacts of tariffs and federal budget cuts. Only California is home to more major corporations than New York. But federal funding does account for a relatively large portion of the state budget. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said in April that Trump budget cuts could impact some $1.3 billion in federal funding to the state, and warned that tariffs could result in 280,000 lost jobs. Those impacts would be significant, but all is relative in a state with a general fund budget of more than $110 billion, and a workforce of nearly 10 million. Only about 53,000 of those employees — less than half of one percent — work for the federal government. 2025 Economy Score: 298 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: B+) GDP (2024): $1.83 trillion (+2.4%) Job Growth (2024): 1.8% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA1 Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 40% International Goods Trade (2024): $251.6 billion (13.7% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: American Express, JPMorgan Chase, Pfizer While growth in The First State was moribund last year, Delaware's economic foundation is sound, and well-insulated from the upheaval coming from Washington. The state does have some exposure to international trade, but only a small portion of that — about 8% — is with China. The state is among the least dependent on the federal government, which accounts for just a quarter of state spending and about 0.8% of the workforce. Delaware has lost some of its allure as a place to incorporate, following court decisions seen as unfriendly to business — like the one last year voiding Tesla CEO Elon Musk's compensation package. But it was still the second most popular state in which to start a business last year, after Wyoming. 2025 Economy Score: 317 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A-) GDP (2024): $79.7 billion (+2.1%) Job Growth (2024): 0.9% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 25% International Goods Trade (2024): $15.6 billion (19.6% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: DuPont de Nemours, Incyte Year after year, The Tar Heel State turns in solid growth, and last year was no exception. It is a major reason that North Carolina is CNBC's Top State for Business overall in 2025. North Carolina's housing market, while suffering shortages exacerbated by last year's Hurricane Helene, nonetheless does reasonably well on affordability, according to data from the National Association of Homebuilders. The state is somewhat sheltered from federal budget cuts — federal employees make up just 1% of the workforce. But tariffs are a concern in a state that relies heavily on international trade. 2025 Economy Score: 322 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A-) GDP (2024): $661.9 billion (+3.7%) Job Growth (2024): 0.9% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 38% International Goods Trade (2024): $133.8 billion (20.2% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: Bank of America, Duke Energy, Nucor They say everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes the economy — the second biggest state economy after California. That should be especially helpful in these tumultuous times. While The Lone Star State is heavily reliant on the federal government in its budget, federal employees make up less than 1% of the state's vast workforce. And while international goods trade is an important part of the Texas economy, only a small percentage of that trade, about 6%, is with China. The state enters these tumultuous times with solid finances, and a wealth of foreign direct investment. 2025 Economy Score: 348 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A+) GDP (2024): $2.17 trillion (+3.6) Job Growth (2024): 1.3% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 36% International Goods Trade (2024): $857.7 billion (39.5% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: ExxonMobil, Oracle, AT&T The Sunshine State tops CNBC's Economy rankings for a third consecutive year in 2025. Economic growth and job growth remain solidly in the top ten, state finances are strong, and the state is a leader in new business formations. Florida is a major player in international trade, but it comprises a relatively small percentage of the state's overall economy. And only a small percentage of that international trade is with China, leaving the state in a better position than many when it comes to tariffs. Florida depends on the federal government for about 34% of its budget — and roughly two-thirds of its $34 billion Medicaid budget. That has Floridians keeping a wary eye on Washington. 2025 Economy Score: 363 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: A+) GDP (2024): $1.34 trillion (+3.6) Job Growth (2024): 1.4% Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AAA Stable Share of state spending from federal funds: 34% International Goods Trade (2024): $185 billion (13.8% of GDP) Major Corporate Headquarters: CSX, Carnival, Lennar
CNBC
11-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
These are America's cheapest states in 2025, winning battle against inflation
Inflation has fallen considerably, but it is still too high for Federal Reserve policymakers' tastes. And tariffs make the calculation even more complicated. "We've had goods inflation just moving up a bit," said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a news conference last month. "We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer." CNBC considers Cost of Living among ten categories of competitiveness in our annual America's Top States for Business rankings. Companies seeking to attract as many workers as they can — and reduce their own wage costs — like to locate in places that are affordable. So, we rate the states based on an index of prices for a broad range of goods and services calculated by the Council for Community and Economic Research, C2ER. We also consider housing affordability. And, with an insurance crisis spreading across the country, we measure the cost to insure a median priced home based on the most recent available data. Under this year's methodology, Cost of Living is worth 2.4% of each state's total score. Some states remain very expensive for residents. Others are doing a fair job in the fight to keep costs down. Based on the 2025 Cost of Living category points totals — which results in some tie scores between states, though only one that can be called the nation's "least expensive" — here are America's cheapest states to live in, along with average prices in 2024 of some basic items in key metro areas. Shocked at the price of eggs? Head to Kalamazoo, where you'll pay around 20% less per dozen than they are paying in Newark, New Jersey (prices in this list were compiled last year, before egg prices began rising again, but the difference remains about the same). And the cost of a new home in Michigan is less than half what they are paying in New Jersey. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 39 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B–) Consumer Price Index (May, Midwest Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $3,290 Average Home Price (Kalamazoo): $298,697 Dozen Eggs (2024): $2.99 Monthly Energy Bill: $203.46 The Hawkeye State has home field advantage when it comes to corn, which will cost you about 16% less at the supermarket than they are paying in Washington, D.C. Speaking of home, housing prices in Iowa are among the most affordable in the nation. But one thing that is becoming less affordable is insurance. Online insurance marketplace Insurify projects that the average Iowa homeowner will pay $3,825 for insurance this year, a 19% jump from last year. Premiums have been rising since the 2020 derecho, a massive wind storm that destroyed some 8,000 homes and did millions of dollars in damage. A parade of severe weather has followed, bringing higher premiums along with it. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 39 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B–) Consumer Price Index (May, Midwest Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $3,825 Average Home Price (Burlington): $320,694 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.24 Monthly Energy Bill: $215.83 Despite its coastal location, The First State has managed to dodge the insurance crisis, at least so far. Premiums in Delaware are about one-tenth of what they are in Florida. It helps that the state has managed to avoid natural disasters in recent years, and that the population is relatively sparse. Housing costs in general are reasonable for most homeowners and renters in Delaware. According to Census data, only about 26% of them are spending more than one-third of their household income on housing. In California, that number is more than 39%. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 39 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B–) Consumer Price Index (May, South Region): +2% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $1,693 Average Home Price (Dover): $370,378 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.20 Monthly Energy Bill: $199.31 The Cowboy State has managed to rein in housing and insurance costs. Seventy-five percent of Wyoming homeowners and renters pay less than 30% of their household income on housing. Insurance premiums are projected to rise by about 7% this year, but that is less than the average increase nationwide of around 8.5%. Home prices are running about 17% less than in neighboring Montana. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 41 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B) Consumer Price Index (May, West Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $2,424 Average Home Price (Laramie): $426,326 Dozen Eggs (2024): $2.98 Monthly Energy Bill: $172.82 The Buckeye State is also bucking some of the national trends on housing and insurance costs. At $268,600 statewide, according to Redfin, Ohio's median home sale price is among the lowest in the country, and well below the national median of $441,738 in May. It will cost you roughly half what it would in Minnesota to insure a typical home. And everyday staples are more affordable in Ohio as well. A loaf of bread in Youngstown is about 15% cheaper than it is in Portland, Oregon. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 41 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B) Consumer Price Index (May, Midwest Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $2,006 Average Home Price (Cleveland): $391,639 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.24 Monthly Energy Bill: $161.82 Got a hankering for some Southern fried chicken? Here in The Heart of Dixie, a whole fryer will cost you a little more than half what you would pay in Oakland, California. A house in booming Huntsville will cost you about one-third what a similar home would cost in Lake Havasu City, Arizona. But this state's Gulf Coast location means that homeowners insurance costs are starting to eat into household budgets. Premiums in Alabama are the sixth highest in the nation. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 43 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B+) Consumer Price Index (May, South Region): +2% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $5,831 Average Home Price (Huntsville): $361,221 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.35 Monthly Energy Bill: $172.74 Housing costs are easily manageable in The Peace Garden State. Three out of five homeowners and renters are paying less than 30% of their household income on housing costs. North Dakota overall does well on housing affordability, but the market is tight in spots. Before leaving office this year and joining the Trump administration as Interior Secretary, Gov. Doug Burgum unveiled a comprehensive housing strategy, developed by a state Housing Initiative Advisory Committee, aimed at bringing the housing market into better balance. The plan includes reductions in red tape to spur development, financing assistance, local housing grants, and grants to local school districts to train the next generation of construction workers. "If we want to continue to attract and retain workers and grow our economy, we need to reduce barriers to workforce participation such as housing," Burgum said in November. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 45 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B+) Consumer Price Index (May, Midwest Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $3,931 Average Home Price (Fargo): $390,066 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.12 Monthly Energy Bill: $139.56 Show me a good time in Kansas City — say, a ticket to a movie — and I'll show you a 25% savings over what it would cost you in Philadelphia. Life is easy on the wallet in The Show Me State. Go out for a burger after the movie in Missouri, and you'll save another 25% versus what you would pay in Baltimore. But, as in other states in the region, you may find yourself spending a chunk of those savings on the rising cost of your homeowner's insurance. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 45 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B+) Consumer Price Index (May, Midwest Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $3,641 Average Home Price (Kansas City): $429,449 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.17 Monthly Energy Bill: $219.67 Head across the Missouri River into Kansas, and you will find things even more affordable in the Sunflower State. A head of lettuce is 15% cheaper in Manhattan, Kansas, than in Manhattan, New York. A two-bedroom apartment in the Midwest Manhattan will set you back a little over $1,000 per month, while you'll pay a little over $5,000 in that other Manhattan. But you will actually pay more per month for homeowners insurance in Kansas than you would in New York State. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 46 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B+) Consumer Price Index (May, Midwest Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $4,782 Average Home Price (Manhattan): $399,444 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.04 Monthly Energy Bill: $201.23 At $275,700 in May, the median home sales price in Indiana is about 35% below the national average. Yet home prices are appreciating nicely, by about 4% a year. Want to get your tires balanced as you drive through The Crossroads of America? Better to do it here than next door in Illinois, where it will cost 25% more. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 46 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: B+) Consumer Price Index (May, Midwest Region): +2.4% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $2,766 Average Home Price (Indianapolis): $360,369 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.40 Monthly Energy Bill: $169.58 Your money goes further in The Mountain State than in any other state. At the end of 2024, West Virginia's composite Cost of Living Index as measured by C2ER was 84.1, less than half the number for the most expensive state, Hawaii, at 186.9. Fewer than 20% of West Virginians are paying more than one-third of their monthly income for housing. But even here, there are worries about a housing shortage, particularly for low-income residents. The National Low Income Housing Coalition found earlier this year that the state needs 25,000 more affordable housing units. The group says that for every 100 low-income households, only 58 rental homes are available. Part of the issue: an increasing number of units are short-term rentals, blocking full-time residents out of the market. 2025 Cost of Living Score: 58 out of 60 points (Top States Grade: A+) Consumer Price Index (May, South Region): +2% Annual Homeowner's Insurance: $1,744 Average Home Price (Charleston): $266,797 Dozen Eggs (2024): $3.50 Monthly Energy Bill: $198.12
CNBC
10-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
CNBC's 2025 Top States biggest mover: Massachusetts
CNBC's Scott Cohn joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the biggest movers in CNBC's Top States for Business list.
CNBC
10-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Virginia drops in America's Top States for Business rankings. Federal job cuts are a big reason
Six months into his second term in office, President Trump has begun to fundamentally change the relationship between the federal government and the states. In the process, he has shaken up CNBC's annual competitiveness ranking, America's Top States for Business. Virginia, last year's No. 1 state and a top three finisher in each of the last five years, slips to fourth place in 2025 — its worst showing since 2018 — and cedes the No. 1 spot to North Carolina. A major reason is a drop in the state's Economy ranking, to No. 14 in 2025 from No. 11 last year. Economy is the heaviest weighted category in the study under this year's methodology as more states pitch themselves as safe havens in a potential downturn. Virginia is already seeing a small downturn of sorts, as the Trump administration sets out to slash the federal workforce. That hits The Old Dominion where it lives. The federal government accounted for more than 144,000 jobs in Virginia last year, according to the Congressional Research Service. That is a larger percentage of the workforce than any state except Maryland and Hawaii. And that doesn't include Virginians who work for federal contractors, or commute to federal jobs elsewhere in the D.C. metro area. Include all of those, and the number approaches 300,000. In May, Virginia was one of only three states whose unemployment rate rose from the prior month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state is still adding jobs each month, albeit at a slower pace than last year, and Virginia's 3.4% unemployment rate in May was still below the national average. But the slowdown — and the fact that many of the federal job cuts have yet to be reflected in the official numbers — concerns University of Virginia economist Eric Scorsone, Executive Director of the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. "Virginia has been an economy, historically, that is pretty resilient," he said. "But now, we're seeing something quite different, where Virginia is seeing some job losses, or at least job stagnation, whereas the nation as a whole is still creating jobs." The Center's most recent forecast, published in April, calls for the state to lose 32,000 jobs this year, with the job losses accelerating as the year goes on. While Scorsone said those job losses will occur primarily in the federal sector, he also sees a ripple effect. "Things like leisure and accommodations," he said. "As people lose jobs, they're going to spend less on those things, [and] maybe in retail," he added. Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, says the state can absorb those federal job cuts. In February, the state launched a web site, targeting displaced workers with job listings and other resources from across the state. "We have 250,000 open jobs posted that are unfilled. And so, there's a great opportunity for folks to find a new opportunity, new job, new career," Youngkin said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on April 15. A recent check of the site showed that the number of openings has shrunk to 199,000 as jobs have been filled and private sector hiring has slowed. That still would appear to be more than enough for the federal workers likely to be displaced. But Scorsone said it is not that simple. "Virginia's federal workforce is different than, say, other states. Our workforce tends to be highly educated, professional executive level," he said. "Many of the jobs that are open may be in different sectors, like health care. You can't just easily move into a health care job if that's not your area of expertise," he added. In his CNBC appearance in April, Youngkin acknowledged the likelihood that the state will lose jobs, and that the private sector alternatives will not be an exact fit for many displaced government employees. "Listen, they're not perfect matches," he said. "They're high paying, good jobs that require someone to possibly get some retraining or re-skilling, or go into a new field, but they're really good jobs." Youngkin said the budget cuts, and job losses, are necessary. "We need to rein in spending and re-establish fiscal reality back into the federal government," he said, adding that Virginia goes into the upheaval from a position of strength. "We're seeing record surpluses in our budgets. We're able to use those surpluses to reduce taxes and invest in education and law enforcement and other investments in business development," Youngkin said. Indeed, Virginia is still a business powerhouse, with the top Education ranking in the CNBC study, and the second best rating for Infrastructure. Over time, no state has performed better than Virginia in the CNBC rankings. The state has taken top honors six times since the project began in 2007. But in 2025, with economic anxiety rising, Virginia's economic situation is just shaky enough to take it down a few pegs.
CNBC
27-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
How tariffs are impacting the America's top states for business
CNBC's Scott Cohn joins 'Squawk on the Street' with his latest report on America's Top States for Business 2025.
