Latest news with #Tortoise
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Shell probably won't buy BP: Here's a 'more realistic' outcome
A potential Shell (SHEL) and BP (BP) merger is on investors' minds after The Wall Street Journal reported Shell is in early talks to acquire BP, though Shell has denied the report. Tortoise senior portfolio manager and managing director Rob Thummel says it makes sense for the two energy companies to combine, but it's unlikely that Shell would buy BP outright, explaining that it's more probable that BP will sell parts of its business to Shell and others. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. While Shell is denying the Wall Street Journal report that it's in talks with BP about a possible merger, our next guest says a deal could be a first step towards improving the valuations of the combined company. Here with more, we've got Rob Dummel, who is the Tortis Senior portfolio manager and managing director. Great to have you here with us. So, just take us into your analysis of the deal-making environment now through the lens of Shell and BP, and what it could mean for the sector. Well, so, so thanks for having me. So, if you just look at what's happening in the overall sector, obviously commodity prices are down. Oil prices are down a lot. And so, it's hard for deals to be made today, uh, just because, uh, because of the low oil price. And a lot of these oil and gas producers, oil producers in particular, have really repaired their balance sheet so they don't need to do deals. But it's a little different for Shell and Shell and BP. So, if you look at the valuations of Shell and BP, they're really low. They trade at much lower valuations than their peers: Exxon, Chevron, Total. So, obviously, there are a lot of investors that are looking for ways to unlock that value. I know Elliott's been active in in BP to try to, to try to encourage them to sell several of their assets to try to realize and get the market to recognize a more of a sum of the parts type of valuation. So, does it make sense for the two to combine? Uh, yeah, it probably does longer term if you think about, then what will the what will combined entity do? It's much bigger. Um, and then ultimately what it needs to do, and I think both companies need to do, is continue to be disciplined, continue to deliver cash back to the shareholders in the form of dividends and stock buybacks. And, and I think if you put all those together, then ultimately, you result in in an improving valuation. But, but clearly, there these, both of these stocks are at really discounted valuations. What is the likelihood that this deal even goes through knowing that there are now more restrictions in different parts of the world for this to be necessary or be possible to take place, considering British stock regulations that have now come more into light which would mean that essentially there would be a six-month period that Shell would have to wait, uh, if this indeed was rejected and, and ultimately they would have to find, uh, some other approach. Yeah, I, I think the odds of Shell buying BP as it is today is very low. Uh, um, what I think the more realistic, uh, possibility is that, you know, BP starts to sell off certain pieces of its business and then ultimately a combination between Shell and BP, uh, makes a little more sense. I think BP's obviously interested in the oil and gas producing assets, the Gulf of Mexico, um, some of its international oil and gas producing assets. Um, and I think BP has a little bit of LNG as well that, that that would, would be complementary. But, but uh, but there are other businesses, I think, inside of BP that that may make sense in the hands of other buyers rather than Shell. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Sky News
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Sky News
The Wargame - episode five: The Choice
👉 Click here to listen to The Wargame on your podcast app 👈 Hostilities worsen despite attempts to broker a ceasefire. What happens next requires difficult decisions and hard choices. A major five-part series from Sky News and Tortoise which imagines how a Russian attack on the UK could play out - and invites real-life former ministers, military chiefs and other experts to figure out how to defend the country. Written and presented by Sky News' security and defence editor, Deborah Haynes.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The Wargame podcast: Fictional British government faces a terrifying choice in final episode
Under yet another attack from Russia, a fictional British government of former ministers and military chiefs face a terrifying choice in the final episode of The Wargame. The home secretary, played by , asks a key question. "We have the nuclear deterrent. In what circumstances would we use it prime minister?" , a former defence secretary who is playing the PM, offers his view - but is it one that is shared by the rest of his wartime cabinet? The British side is struggling to respond to mounting pressure from an imagined Kremlin in episode five of the Sky News and Tortoise podcast series, released on Tuesday. The Russian leam has unleashed waves of missile strikes and is demanding the UK agrees to an unconditional ceasefire. London remains defiant, but with only limited conventional fighting power and with its allies still not fully committed to rallying to help, the UK's options are dangerously limited. The dilemma exposes the particular peril for a nuclear-armed nation, such as Britain, that has allowed its conventional fighting power to shrink too far. It means, in a crisis, the UK no longer has the ability to sustain a fight conventionally, so escalating to nuclear war would have to happen far more rapidly - or else admit defeat. Rebuilding conventional military capability and capacity as well as restoring wider national resilience, though, will be expensive. Whether or not the government and the public want to pay for this kind of conventional deterrence, well that's the big choice. Episode five comes out as the real prime minister, , travels to The Hague for a major summit of NATO powers.
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How to play the energy sector as oil prices rise
Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) rise as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues. Tortoise senior portfolio manager and managing director Rob Thummel joins Market Domination with Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton to discuss investing in the energy sector. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Oil prices moving again as the conflict between Israel and Iran enters its fifth day. The geopolitical tensions rippling through the broader energy sector. We're navigating how to play this space with the Yahoo Finance playbook and joining us now is Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager and managing director at Tortoise Capital with nearly $9 billion in assets under management. Rob, always good to see you, especially on set. Thanks for having me. So listen, geopolitics dominate the headlines, Rob. Israel, Iran, war is running hot. You saw President Trump was posting today. He's demanding Iran surrender. And you look at oil, it is moving higher today, Rob, but I'm looking at WTI, it's still sub 75 here. I'm curious what you make of that response or reaction in the oil markets. Yeah, well, I think if you just look at really is oil being disrupted? No. The answer's no, Josh. So so I think the markets are not are not being disrupted, the flows are still happening. I mean, the key thing to watch is of course, the Strait of Hormuz and that's that's where 20% of the oil goes through and and and and and that's straight. And if that's disrupted, then you're going to see oil prices rise. Without that happening, and I don't think that that's probably going to happen, you're going to probably see oil prices ten trend downward. And if you look at the futures curve, I think it's obviously indicating that because we just think that there's going to be an oversupply of oil in the market. Oil prices will come down. Um, and and that frankly will be a good thing for consumers because that means lower gasoline prices for the summer. I mean, it's interesting in the meanwhile though to see, I mean, yesterday to your point, we saw oil prices come down because of what you're saying. There wasn't a widespread belief that there would be disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. And then today they're going right back up again because of the at least possibility that investors seem to be considering that things will be ratcheting up. So, as an investor, how do you buy insurance against that possibility or do you do you just say it's so unlikely Yeah, I think that I'm not even going to put money down. No, I think it's I think I think it's a good observation, Julie. I just think it's so unlikely if you just think about it. I mean, 20% of the oil markets, if if we had the straight home moves, uh some disruption there, I mean, we've got a global energy crisis immediately if you think about it, right? And so it it's not in the interest of the two largest consumers of oil in the world, you know, the US and China. It's frankly not even in the interest of Iran because Iran obviously generates a lot of revenue from oil. So is your point, Rob, if there was disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, US and allies would immediately make a move? Yes, that's exactly it. That that's exactly, Josh, because nobody like I said, no nobody in the world wants this wants this global energy crisis and it would be one immediately. And so there there there would be uh actions taken, I think very quickly uh to to to remedy um and have the ships then start to float back and forth and get out of the straight home at that point. So absent that, where's fair value for oil right now? Why do you think it's going to come down and how far? Well, in the short term, I think it's probably Julia I think is in the 60s, probably even maybe in the 50s for now. Um, the market's going to be oversupplied. OPEC Plus is bringing back volumes. But we think, you know, in the US, we're going to see actually, we might see a lower production next year, uh actually for the first time for a while. Now, that's we think that that's temporary. think the the longer term oil price is probably right where we are right now, right in the 70s. Um, and we'll see oil prices come back up, but we got to get the balance the oil market balance and you got to get some of these oil volumes from from OPEC Plus that were off the market back onto the market. So Rob, let's talk about you have to decide where to put money to work. Let's talk about some places where you see opportunity in this sector. One was Constellation Energy, largest nuclear energy play. Why is that a smart opportunity here? Yeah, Josh, because we think that electricity actually is the new oil. So the, you know, we're we've got this got this revival of energy. The the the the the sector's going to be changing in a lot of ways and we think that electricity becomes the new oil. Where do you get a lot of electricity? You get it from nuclear and natural gas. And so Constellation Energy, one of the largest, well, the largest nuclear operator, generates a lot of electricity. It's in the right location, really in Pennsylvania and the eastern area of the of the country generating a lot of energy for that area. And because of AI, uh, you know, where are all the AI data centers, where are the most in the world? Well, Northern Virginia. So anyway, we see that as a huge opportunity for constellation. It's so interesting to me because I think of you, I mean, we've been talking to you for years and you're an oil stock guy, right? This is how we've come to know you, you know. And so it's so fascinating to me that, you know, when I when we asked what you were liking right now within the market, it's not oil and you know, exploration and production names, the traditional big oil names. It's these other types of energy companies. Um, on the flip side, like you're not the only one noticing this, right? These these types of companies have gotten a lot of money into them and as a result, the valuations have gone up. So how are you thinking about their popularity? Yeah, I know Julian, you're right, I've been investing in energy for 30 years. And at tortoise we we look for opportunities across the whole energy value chain at all times and you know, where are the most commercial opportunities? You're right, we've talked about oil for years and you know, look, oil's still relevant and it's still important. But but we just think that natural gas and nuclear will will be this the engines really that that drive this AI trade that that help really drive AI and help drive electricity going forward. And so that that that's that's really why we have I want to say changed at all, but we've just evolved because the energy sector's evolving. The energy sector is being redefined. And so that that that's kind of how we've gotten into this position and it's frankly it's an exciting one uh for for all the reasons that you've articulated. But it's a really exciting opportunity in energy because it's for the first time in my time my career where you've had energy and technology kind of merge together and both need each other to be successful. Here's another one you like, Rob, which is interesting, a uranium miner, Cameco Corporation. Explain that thesis to us. Well, so so if we're going to develop nuclear, the nuclear uh we we need to develop the nuclear supply chain. So that starts all the way from developing and and having more uranium production. That's what Cameco does. It's a you know, it owns, I think about 17% of the world reserves in in uranium. And so that that that's where it starts is with with basically the mining of uranium and Cameco is one of those companies. Then you need to enrich it and there's and there's some companies that that aren't on the list yet that that we like that you need to enrich more uranium in the US. This is a little ways away yet until we get uranium being more of an important part of the or nuclear being a larger part of the of the uh energy supply chain. Natural gas in the meantime is going to be probably the biggest um and and the best opportunity to to to capture, you know, growing electricity volumes. I want to bring it back to valuations for a minute because as I mentioned, constellation has been bid up and as a result, its valuation has gone higher. That's true of pretty much all the other names that you like and pretty much anywhere you look at nuclear. Yeah. We have seen a lot of money and in traditional power companies, a lot of money going in. So how do you think about the valuations? Is it too late for someone not like yourself who hasn't been looking at these who's new to coming in, have they have they kind of missed it? Yeah, and that was your question earlier, and so I apologize. But but but you're you're right. There's there's been a great run for these stocks, but we just think that there's still there's significant growth opportunities going forward related to this because just think about how I mean, it's just think about the the demand for electricity. We need a thousand uh more terawatt hours of electricity between now and and 2030. You're like, what does that mean? Well, it's the same amount of electricity that's currently being uh used in the states of California, uh Texas, uh North uh New York, um and Florida together combined on a retail basis. So there's a lot of electricity. And so so there's a lot of growth that's a that's ahead for for the companies like Constellation, companies like Avista, a lot of these electric utilities. You know, you think about it, these stocks historically weren't known as growth stocks. They were defensive stocks. Now they're still kind of they're still kind of defensive because we still need electricity, but now because of AI they're now growth stocks too. So they so they're going to attract new investors as well, we think which will result in improved valuations going forward. So there's still our opportunities here. Rob, always good to see you, especially in person. Thanks, Josh. Thanks. 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Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How to play the energy sector as oil prices rise
Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) rise as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues. Tortoise senior portfolio manager and managing director Rob Thummel joins Market Domination with Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton to discuss investing in the energy sector. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here.
