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What do China's surging exports mean for the world?
What do China's surging exports mean for the world?

Yahoo

time04-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

What do China's surging exports mean for the world?

-- China's recent export surge is creating ripple effects across global trade, with UBS analysts warning of a potential 'second China shock.' According to UBS, 'export volumes [are] up 20%' over the past two years, compared to just 6% growth in the rest of the world, marking China's strongest trade outperformance since joining the World Trade Organization. Much of this growth is being directed toward emerging markets (EM), which now account for over half of China's exports and trade surplus, said the bank. 'That China's share of final demand is rising in sectors ranging from Latam autos to ASEAN household appliances shows that its export penetration runs far deeper than cyclical 'transshipping' effects,' UBS wrote. They add that the quality of Chinese goods is improving, and the country's export momentum continues even as negative price deflators ease. 'This isn't just about low prices… quality is playing an increasingly important role,' UBS noted. While some of China's export strengths are in building new supply chains, such as Hungarian autos and Indonesian mining, UBS cautioned that the broader trend could weigh on other EM economies. 'China's rising export competitiveness may compromise growth in the rest of EM,' the analysts warned, citing weak FDI inflows, declining manufacturing/GDP ratios, and deflationary pressures in sectors like chemicals and household products. UBS sees limited near-term progress in China's efforts to curb overcapacity. Despite higher U.S. tariffs and attempts to boost domestic consumption, 'disinflationary spillovers' are likely to persist. 'These disinflationary spillovers will leave EM central banks with more work to do,' UBS added. The implications for global markets are said to be mixed, with some EM equities potentially benefiting from looser monetary policy, particularly in countries less exposed to Chinese competition. Related articles What do China's surging exports mean for the world? Fed's Bostic says tariffs effects may take a year 'to fully play out' President Trump's views on Japan tariffs may be misinformed, says PM Ishiba

EU trade surplus with U.S. grows in April despite tariffs
EU trade surplus with U.S. grows in April despite tariffs

CTV News

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • CTV News

EU trade surplus with U.S. grows in April despite tariffs

European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic arrives for a meeting of EU trade ministers at the European Council building in Brussels, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Omar Havana) BRUSSELS — The European Union's goods trade surplus with the United States expanded in April even after U.S. tariffs, data released on Friday showed, while the bloc's exports to China dropped for a ninth consecutive month. The EU's surplus in goods trade as a whole declined to 7.4 billion euros (US$8.5 billion) from 12.7 billion euros in April 2024, data from EU statistics agency Eurostat showed. The EU goods surplus with the United States increased, as it has done every month since January 2024. Both exports to and imports from the United States increased for a fourth consecutive month in April, although the growth was lower than in previous months. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced wideranging tariffs on trade partners, and wants to reduce the U.S. goods trade deficit with the EU. In March, EU exports to the U.S. rose by 59.5 per cent, implying U.S. importers were building stocks of EU and other goods ahead of tariff increases. European Union exporters faced 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 11, on cars from April 3 and on car parts from May 3. Washington doubled the rate on metals to 50 per cent on June 4. It also imposed so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs on most EU goods on April 5, initially at 20 per cent, but almost immediately cut to 10 per cent until July 8. The bloc's surpluses with Britain, Switzerland and Mexico fell, while its deficits with China, Norway and South Korea widened in April. EU exports of machinery and vehicles to the rest of the world fell by 4.3 per cent. There were also declines of its exports of raw materials and energy products, while food and drink and chemicals exports were higher than in April 2024. --- US$1 = 0.8681 euros Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by Toby Chopra

EU trade surplus with US grows in April despite tariffs
EU trade surplus with US grows in April despite tariffs

Reuters

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

EU trade surplus with US grows in April despite tariffs

BRUSSELS, June 13 (Reuters) - The European Union's goods trade surplus with the United States expanded in April even after U.S. tariffs, data released on Friday showed, while the bloc's exports to China dropped for a ninth consecutive month. The EU's surplus in goods trade as a whole declined to 7.4 billion euros ($8.5 billion) from 12.7 billion euros in April 2024, data from EU statistics agency Eurostat showed. The EU goods surplus with the United States increased, as it has done every month since January 2024. Both exports to and imports from the United States increased for a fourth consecutive month in April, although the growth was lower than in previous months. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced wideranging tariffs on trade partners, and wants to reduce the U.S. goods trade deficit with the EU. In March, EU exports to the U.S. rose by 59.5%, implying U.S. importers were building stocks of EU and other goods ahead of tariff increases. European Union exporters faced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium from March 11, on cars from April 3 and on car parts from May 3. Washington doubled the rate on metals to 50% on June 4. It also imposed so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on most EU goods on April 5, initially at 20%, but almost immediately cut to 10% until July 8. The bloc's surpluses with Britain, Switzerland and Mexico fell, while its deficits with China, Norway and South Korea widened in April. EU exports of machinery and vehicles to the rest of the world fell by 4.3%. There were also declines of its exports of raw materials and energy products, while food and drink and chemicals exports were higher than in April 2024. ($1 = 0.8681 euros)

China's exports to US drop at fastest pace in over 5 years
China's exports to US drop at fastest pace in over 5 years

Argaam

time09-06-2025

  • Business
  • Argaam

China's exports to US drop at fastest pace in over 5 years

China's exports to the US fell 34.4% in May 2025, marking the steepest drop since February 2020, Bloomberg reported, based on official data released today, June 9. The decline came despite the trade truce reached by the world's two largest economies on May 12, which involved reducing tariffs on certain imports between the US and China. This sharp fall offset an 11% rise in exports to other countries, showing the heft of the world's largest economy even as Beijing reduced its reliance on direct shipments to the market after Trump's first term. China's total exports rose by 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) in May to $316 billion, falling short of the expected 6% growth, official data showed. Meanwhile, imports declined by 3.4% YoY in May, continuing their fall for the third consecutive month. This led to a trade surplus of $103 billion for the month. Nonetheless, the overall growth in exports continues to support China's economy, with the country posting a record trade surplus of nearly $0.5 trillion so far this year.

EU Exports to U.S. Surge Ahead of Trump Tariffs
EU Exports to U.S. Surge Ahead of Trump Tariffs

Wall Street Journal

time16-05-2025

  • Business
  • Wall Street Journal

EU Exports to U.S. Surge Ahead of Trump Tariffs

The European Union's exports to the U.S. hit a record high in March as businesses stockpiled goods ahead of an expected rise in tariffs that was announced by President Trump in early April. The EU exported 59.5% more goods to the U.S. compared with the same month of the previous year, totaling 71.4 billion euros, or around $79.86 billion, statistics agency Eurostat said Friday. The EU's trade surplus with the U.S., a key sticking point with Trump, swelled to 40.7 billion euros from 16.7 billion euros in March 2024.

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