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Herald Sun
3 days ago
- Business
- Herald Sun
ASX 200 live: ASX tracks best post-Covid fiscal; Star's Queen's Wharf deal off
Welcome to the Trading Day blog for Monday, June 30. The ASX 200 index has kicked of EOFY trading about 0.2 per cent higher at 8529.60 points with financials and utilities stronger. Miners are down. On Friday, Wall Street's S&P 500 and the technology-focused Nasdaq both closed 0.5 per cent higher, respectively, hitting all-time highs. The Dow Jones index closed 1 per cent stronger. Cryptocurrency giant bitcoin is around $US108,400. The Aussie dollar is trading around US65.38c. Originally published as ASX 200 live: ASX tracks best post-Covid fiscal; Star's Queen's Wharf deal off
Herald Sun
7 days ago
- Business
- Herald Sun
ASX 200 live: Xero in focus; Shell-BP merger talks, Nvidia at record; Powell reiterates Fed focus on Trump tariffs
Xero under pressure after insto raise to fund $4bn US buy. Shell's early BP talks signal largest oil deal in a generation with global impacts. Formidable trio to look into bourse operator ASX's 'repeated, serious failures'. Welcome to the Trading Day blog for Thursday, June 26. The ASX 200 index is down 0.2 per cent to 8545.70 points at 10.20am AEST as bank and tech losses weigh. Wall Street closed mixed with the S&P 500 index flat, the Dow Jones index off 0.3 per cent and the technology-focused Nasdaq rising 0.3 per cent. Cryptocurrency giant bitcoin is around $US107,600. The Aussie dollar is trading around US65.23c. Stars align for RBA's July cash rate cut Originally published as ASX 200 live: Xero in focus; Shell-BP merger talks, Nvidia at record; Powell reiterates Fed focus on Trump tariffs Business Qatar Airways' chief has revealed the full chaos unleashed by Monday's airspace closure in a rare 'open letter' to plead understanding from fuming travellers. Companies A major Aussie capital city has announced it will phase out future residential gas appliances by the end of the year, despite the Premier slamming it as an 'overstep'.
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tech IPOs, stocks strong despite Israel–Iran: Market Takeaways
Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton to discuss two main takeaways of the trading day: US markets (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) staying resilient despite escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, and tech companies that recently went public continuing to outperform, like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Circle (CRCL). To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day: Bond alarms ring louder
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist U.S. debt despair Investors' unease about holding long-dated sovereign debt was magnified by a soft 20-year U.S. Treasury note auction on Wednesday, which slammed the dollar and stocks, pushed long bond yields higher and steepened the U.S. yield curve. In my column today I take a closer look at the rising term premium on U.S. debt. How much higher can it go? More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Weak U.S. economic outlook persists despite brief tradetruce with China 2. What's in the Republican tax and spending plan? 3. Target cuts annual forecasts as tariff pressure mounts,demand slows further 4. Japan's portfolio reshuffle raises red flag for U.S.:Mike Dolan 5. UK inflation jumps in April, raising prospect of BoErate cut delay Today's Key Market Moves * Wall Street slides across the board, with the S&P 500losing 1.6%, the Nasdaq 1.4%, the Dow 1.9%, and the Russell 2000small-cap index shedding 2.6%. * Treasury yields surge as much as 13 bps at the long end ofthe curve - 10-year yield scales 4.60%; 20-year and 30-yearyields hit 4.13% and 5.10%, respectively, both the highest sinceOctober 2023. * Another down day for the dollar, as the dollar index falls0.5%, with the euro, Aussie dollar and yen the big winners. * The Japanese yen rallies for a seventh consecutive day, awinning streak last seen in March 2017. * Bitcoin rises to a record high just shy of $110,000,before easing back after the soft U.S. 20-year bond auction. Bond alarms ring louder After a poor 20-year government bond auction in Japan on Tuesday, it was the turn of a weak sale of 20-year U.S. debt on Wednesday to cast a cold, dark shadow over world markets and put investors on the defensive. The trouble is, when supposedly safe-haven sovereign bonds are at the root of the deepening market angst, the selloff takes on a more worrisome significance. And when it's U.S. Treasuries specifically, the cause for concern is even greater. Wednesday's auction of 20-year notes, the first sale of U.S. government debt since Moody's stripped the U.S. of its triple-A rating last week, drew softer demand than usual, but what soured sentiment and risk appetite was the high yield investors demanded. That was always going to be the case really - investors of all stripes from every corner of the world will buy Treasuries, the only doubt is the price. It was clearly lower than expected on Wednesday, and markets reacted accordingly. Washington's fiscal profligacy remains a major source of anxiety for bond investors. Non-partisan analysts say President Donald Trump's tax-cut bill proposals will add between $2 trillion and $5 trillion to the $36 trillion federal debt over the next decade. The 20-year Treasury note auction provided fuel for the bond fire, but fixed income was already smoldering on Wednesday - long-dated Japanese yields were at record highs and figures showed UK inflation rose much faster than expected to 3.5% in April, the highest in over a year. Tariffs, monetary stimulus, rising debt levels, poor fiscal discipline, growing policy risk, sticky inflation and soaring inflation expectations - these are some of the reasons investors around the world are reluctant to go long 'duration', or buy long-dated bonds. It's a potent mix, and all markets are feeling the heat. U.S. markets, in particular, are under pressure as the rest of the world reevaluates its holdings of dollar-denominated assets in light of Trump's global trade war and drive to upend the world economic order of the past 80 years. Steep declines in U.S. stocks, Treasuries and the dollar on Wednesday point to a nervy global session on Thursday. How much higher can the U.S. term premium go? A lot Financial markets have had a fairly muted reaction to Moody's decision to strip the United States of its triple-A credit rating last week, fueling hopes that the action will do little long-term damage to U.S. asset prices, as was the case when the U.S. suffered its first downgrade in 2011. But given today's challenging global macroeconomic environment and America's deteriorating fiscal health, that may be wishful thinking. To monitor the impact in the coming months, a key indicator to watch will be the so-called 'term premium' on U.S. debt. When Standard & Poor's Global became the first of the three major ratings agencies to cut America's top-notch rating in August 2011, there was little blowback because Treasuries were still widely considered the safest asset in the world. Demand for U.S. bonds went through the roof, despite S&P's landmark move, and yields and the term premium plummeted. That's unlikely to happen now. In 2011, the U.S. debt/GDP ratio was 94%, a record at the time reflecting a surge in government spending in response to the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. But the fed funds rate was only 0.25%, and inflation was 3% but falling. It dropped to zero a few years later and did not return to 3% until the pandemic in 2020. It's a vastly different picture today. U.S. public debt is around 100% of GDP and projected to rise to 134% over the next decade, according to Moody's. Official interest rates are above 4%, inflation is 2.3% but expected to rise as tariff-fueled price hikes kick in. Meanwhile, consumers' short- and long-term inflation expectations are the highest in decades. And while the $29 trillion Treasury market is still the linchpin of the global financial system, increasing U.S. policy risk is prompting the rest of the world to rethink its exposure to U.S. assets, including Treasuries - 'de-dollarization' is underway. HISTORICALLY LOW Put all that together, and it's easy to see why the 'term premium' - the risk premium investors demand for holding longer-term bonds rather than rolling over short-term debt - is liable to rise after this downgrade, unlike 2011. Especially given its relatively low starting point. True, the term premium was already the highest in a decade before the Moody's downgrade on Friday, and is now 0.75%, or 75 basis points. But that is still well below the level in 2011 and slim by historical standards. In July 2011, the term premium on 10-year Treasuries was over 2.0%, but quickly slumped after the S&P downgrade the following month to below 1% and was negative within a few years. Treasuries were downgraded, but their status as the world's undisputed safe-haven asset remained intact. The last time Uncle Sam's debt or inflation dynamics were as concerning as they are today, the term premium was much higher. It rose to 5% during the 'stagflation'-hit 1970s, and was around 4% following the 'Volcker shock' recessions in the early 1980s triggered by the Fed's double-digit interest rates to quell double-digit inflation. "The term premium has come up quite a bit recently and is likely going to rise more given the fiscal challenges the U.S. is facing," notes Emanuel Moench, professor at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and co-creator of the New York Fed's 'ACM' term premium model. "The worry some investors might have is a self-fulfilling debt crisis – a high debt/GDP ratio increases interest rates, which raises the interest rate burden of the government and means you can't so easily grow yourself out of this anymore. This may push the term premium higher." FEEL THE SQUEEZE The question is, how high can it go? History suggests it can go a lot higher until Washington exerts some serious fiscal discipline, or until the squeeze on households, businesses and the federal government from higher market-based borrowing costs gets too much. Some analysts reckon another 50 basis points this year, which would take the 10-year yield up to around 5.00%, a pivotal level for many investors and the historical post-GFC high from October 2023. With fiscal uncertainty so high and policy credibility so low, it's a "tenuous" time right now for Treasuries, as Moench notes. The global environment is nervy too - Japan's 30-year yield this week soared to a record high. BlackRock Investment Institute strategists point out that long-term Treasuries still carry a "relatively low risk premium versus the past", and their "starting point" in their portfolio construction is to assume a rising term premium and "persistent" inflation pressure. They are underweight long-dated Treasuries. Treasuries will always attract buyers. It's just that the clearing price they accept may be lower, and the term premium they demand may be higher. The risk now is it's a lot higher. What could move markets tomorrow? * India, Japan, UK, Germany, euro zone, U.S. flash PMIs(May) * ECB's De Guindos, Escriva speak in Madrid * BoE's Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Huw Pill speak atvarious events * Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, New York FedPresident John Williams speak at separate events * U.S. weekly jobless claims * U.S. 10-year TIPS auction * G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs meet inCanada Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day: Japan's long bond warning
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist U.S. assets in the red It was a sobering day for U.S. assets on Tuesday, with Wall Street, the dollar and longer-dated Treasuries all declining as investors took a breather to digest last week's U.S. sovereign credit downgrade and the latest twists in President Donald Trump's efforts to push his sweeping tax-cut bill through Congress. The general fiscal health of developed economies and rise in long-term yields more broadly are top of investors' minds, and the most significant move in global markets on Tuesday was Japan's 30-year yield hitting a record high. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. A junk-rated U.S. Treasury? Markets 'care' about that:Mike Dolan 2. Trump visits Capitol to try to mend U.S. HouseRepublican rifts on tax bill 3. BOJ urged to boost bond buying in wake of spike insuper-long yields 4. China cuts key rates to aid economy as trade war simmers 5. With U.S. and EU deals, Britain embarks on high-riskbalancing act Today's Key Market Moves * Wall Street's three main indices close lower, falling asmuch as 0.4%. The S&P 500's fall is its first in seven however, the VIX volatility index also falls. * Japan's 30-year yield leaps 16 bps on the day to a recordhigh of 3.14%. * The Australian dollar falls 0.6%, one of the biggestdecliners in G10 FX, after the RBA cuts interest rates andleaves the door open to further easing. * Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong-listed stocks rise afterChina's central bank cuts rates for the first time sinceOctober. * Safe-haven gold rises nearly 2% on the back of a weakerdollar, global trade uncertainty, and Wall Street weakness. Japan's long bond warning If Tuesday was a relatively calm day across global equity markets, the same cannot be said for Japanese Government Bonds, particularly the long end of the curve after a poor auction of 20-year securities triggered a rush for the exits. The 30-year JGB yield rose above the previous high from November 2000 to a fresh record peak of 3.14% and is now up more than 40 bps this month, putting it on track for its biggest monthly rise on record. The spread between Japan's 30-year JGB yield and Bank of Japan policy rate is now 263 basis points, the widest since 2004 and close to the record high around 290 bps from August that year. The severe weakness of longer-dated Japanese sovereign bond prices is the clearest reflection of a global phenomenon currently underway - declining demand for 'duration', or investors' reluctance to hold long-term government debt. Of course, Japan's fiscal dynamics are particularly fragile. The country's gross debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 250% is by far the highest in the developed world. For years it sustained that huge debt burden while paying the lowest interest rates in the developed world, but that sweet spot has gone - perhaps for good - and investors are now demanding a much higher risk premium. In many ways, Japan's situation is unique, but where Japan leads other countries often follow. Public finances and debt dynamics are deteriorating across the G7 and beyond, and ratings agency Moody's last week stripped the U.S. of its triple-A credit rating. The impact on U.S. assets has been relatively muted so far, although long-dated yields remain elevated, indicating that the move was hardly a shock. Wednesday's 20-year Treasury note auction will be under the spotlight, though, for signs of how strong or otherwise investor demand is. There will probably always be demand for the most liquid asset in the world's deepest market - it's just a question of price. In that light, interest from foreign buyers at the 20-year auction will be intensely scrutinized, given the growing worries about 'de-dollarization' and Treasuries' 'safe-haven' status. What could move markets tomorrow? * Japan Tankan non-manufacturing index (May) * Japan trade (April) * Indonesia interest rate decision * UK inflation (April) * U.S. 20-year Treasury note auction * ECB publishes Financial Stability Review * G7 finance ministers, central bank chiefs meeting inCanada Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
