Latest news with #Treasurys
Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Regulators, led by Fed, agree to loosen reins on 8 biggest banks
For years, the country's biggest banks lobbied against a post-2008 financial crisis rule that was intended to shore up their stability and ensure they could withstand steep losses in times of turmoil. This week, financial regulators led by the Federal Reserve agreed to ease the rule, embarking on what is expected to be an extensive push to loosen the regulatory reins on Wall Street. The rule in question, the supplementary leverage ratio, mandates that lenders maintain a buffer of easy-to-access money against their total leverage. That measure includes assets such as loans and Treasurys as well as exposures that do not appear on a bank's balance sheet but generate income, like derivatives. It is not the first time that the Fed has given the banks a big break on this front. As financial markets melted down at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed offered a temporary reprieve so that banks had more leeway to lend to businesses while staying active in the all-important U.S. government bond market at a time when the economy was reeling from a big shock. But in loosening the rule in a permanent way, which the Fed voted 5-2 in favor of doing Wednesday, opponents warn that it risks making the financial system more fragile at a time when President Donald Trump's policies are stoking extreme volatility. 'You lower capital requirements, you build up leverage in this system, which by definition is going to create less resilience,' said Sheila Bair, who served as chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. from 2006 to 2011. 'You should have a really good reason to do it, and I don't see the reason.' The proposal advanced by financial regulators this week would reduce the capital buffer for the eight biggest banks, which are considered the most systemically important, given their size and ties to the overall financial system. Those institutions, whose teetering would wreak havoc across the global economy, have been required since 2014 to maintain what was known as an enhanced supplementary leverage ratio of at least 5% of their total assets. The change would reduce that ratio to a range of 3.5% to 4.5%, translating to a reduction in capital requirements of $13 billion, or 1.4% at the holding company level. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, voted in favor for the proposal, saying it was 'prudent' for the central bank to reconsider the earlier rule and ensure that banks do not have a disincentive to participate in 'low-risk activities.' The move was immediately cheered by bank lobbyists, who have campaigned for years for regulators to relax the rule. Greg Baer, the CEO of the Bank Policy Institute, said the Fed's proposal was a 'first step toward a more rational capital framework.' Kevin Fromer, the president of the Financial Services Forum, said such changes would enable America's biggest banks to be 'better able to support market functions that impact Main Street businesses and consumers across the country.' Two Fed officials opposed the changes. Adriana Kugler, a governor, joined Michael Barr, who previously served as the vice chair for supervision before stepping down in January, in voting against the proposal. Barr warned that the proposal would increase the risk of bank failures by 'unnecessarily and significantly' reducing the size of the safety net. For subsidiaries of the biggest banks, their capital requirements would fall 27%, leading to a $210 billion drop in capital. He and other critics have also warned that the rule change would not significantly change banks' willingness to step into the Treasury market and continue financing the government's ballooning debt. 'This proposal puts our banking system at risk by weakening capital of the largest banking organizations,' Barr said during Wednesday's Board of Governors meeting. A binding constraint? At the crux of the issue is how much the supplementary leverage ratio is restraining banks' ability to operate. The rule treats traditionally safe assets like Treasurys the same as junk bonds. If banks are on the verge of not having enough capital on hand based on their assets, they cannot make payouts to shareholders or give executives optional bonuses. To avoid breaching that threshold, the risk is that banks stop taking in deposits, making loans or buying Treasurys -- all of which are counted as assets. During the pandemic, banks were allowed to exclude their holdings of Treasurys and cash held at the Fed -- otherwise known as reserves -- when calculating the ratio. That was to prevent the supplementary leverage ratio from becoming what is commonly referred to as a 'binding constraint' and dissuading banks from owning government bonds. Those in support of the Fed's proposed changes argue that banks will be able to hold more Treasurys, alleviating the pressure on one of the most important markets in the world. That increase in demand from freeing up banks' balance sheets could push the price of Treasurys higher, lowering yields and, ultimately, the government's borrowing costs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has made lower interest rates a primary goal, has said that easing the leverage ratio could lead to a drop of 'tens of basis points' in the yield on 10-year government bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield influences the rate on mortgages, credit cards and other loans. However, most large banks are not currently constrained by the leverage ratio, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. By meeting other capital rules, most banks are already compliant with the leverage ratio, they say. As such, Morgan Stanley analysts do not expect banks to 'significantly increase' their Treasury holdings. Strategists at Bank of America came to the same conclusion. And data from when the leverage ratio was relaxed in 2020 fails to show a clear response that dealers increased their Treasury holdings, in part because of other forces at play at the time. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned in an interview that banks were instead more likely to take measures to boost profits. 'The data show that whenever the regulations are loosened up, the banks turn around and pump that money into dividends and share buybacks,' she said. 'The No. 1 threat to the Treasury market right now is Donald Trump,' she said. 'If he and Secretary Bessent were genuinely interested in improving the function and efficiency of the Treasury market, they would first abandon the reckless economic policies stoking bond market concerns. 'The last thing the Fed should be doing is weakening a rule that would cushion an economic blow,' added Warren. Treasury market set to swell The debate comes at crucial moment for the Treasury market. Demand for government debt appears to be waning just as the supply of bonds is set to swell in order to finance Trump's tax cut and spending bill, among other things. With the government borrowing increasingly large sums through the Treasury market, banks have been forced to facilitate trading in a much bigger market but with less room to maneuver because of capital requirements. Today, banks are responsible for facilitating trading in nearly $30 trillion worth of Treasury securities. At the end of 2008, that number was less than $6 trillion. By 2014, when the leverage ratio was introduced, there were still fewer than half the number of Treasurys outstanding as there are today. The overarching concern is that faced with a bout of turmoil, the market is simply too big for the banks to be able to maintain smooth trading conditions in, leading to sharp, disjointed price moves and inciting panic across financial markets. The Fed did leave open the possibility that it may consider exempting Treasurys held by bank broker dealers, asking for feedback from the public as part of a broader 60-day comment period. A broker dealer is a specific type of legal entity through which most banks in the United States run their Treasury trading. This tweak would allow banks to build up large Treasury positions during bouts of market turmoil without running foul of the leverage ratio. 'It lets the shock absorber absorb more shock,' said Michael Schumacher, the head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. Nellie Liang, who served as undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance during the Biden administration, said exempting Treasurys more broadly would be problematic because of the risk posed by rapid fluctuations in interest rates that can cause losses to quickly mount. Also, it could be a 'slippery slope,' potentially leading banks to call for more carve-outs, she warned, even as she endorsed the Fed's decision to reduce the capital buffer overall. This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Copyright 2025
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Buy stocks, sell bonds: How billionaire investor Bill Gross says investors should play an unpredictable market
Bond King Bill Gross says he's not very bullish on Treasurys. Gross is more optimistic about stocks, eyeing a "little bull market." He thinks the 10-year Treasury yield will struggle to fall much further from current levels. Billionaire investor and former Pimco co-founder Bill Gross has a cautious outlook on the bond market, but see continued strength ahead for stocks. The "Bond King" shared his take on both markets this week in a post on X, predicting a "little bull market" for stocks and a "little bear market" for bonds. In his view, the 10-year Treasury yield isn't likely to dip below 4.25% soon, highlighting inflationary trends and deficit concerns. The yield on Tuesday was up slightly by about one basis point to 4.31%. Gross sees more strength in the equity markets and maintains that stocks are likely to continue rising. He cites support from the tech sector, specifically artificial intelligence companies, as a likely growth driver. Tech stocks are enjoying continued momentum, with the Nasdaq 100 index closing at a record high on Tuesday as markets cheered the Israel-Iran ceasfire. Major chip companies with high AI exposure, such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom, have all trended upward despite the high uncertainty generated by geopolitics in recent weeks. Gross's thesis is for AI to support economic growth of 1%-2%. Regarding bonds, he said "deficits/ensuing supply of bonds/and a weak dollar should keep CPI from falling below 2.5% and the 10 year from falling below 4.25%." As Treasurys are a lending benchmark for many consumer products, Gross's predictions for yields to remain elevated could complicate plans for everyday Americans. If yields remain stubbornly high, homebuyers looking for lower mortgage rates could be disappointed. Despite the unpredictable nature of the current economy, Gross adds that for now, he doesn't see anything "too dramatic" happening in either the stock or bond market. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
NBC News
3 days ago
- Business
- NBC News
Divided Fed proposes rule to ease capital requirements for big Wall Street banks
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday proposed easing a key capital rule that banks say has limited their ability to operate, drawing dissent from at least two officials who say the move could undermine important safeguards. Known as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, the measure regulates the quantity and quality of capital banks should be keeping on their balance sheets. The rule emanated from a post-financial crisis effort to ensure the stability of the nation's largest banks. However, in recent years as bank reserves have built and concerns have grown over Treasury market liquidity, Wall Street executives and Fed officials have pushed to roll back the requirements. The Fed will be voting on the new capital rules at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. 'This stark increase in the amount of relatively safe and low-risk assets on bank balance sheets over the past decade or so has resulted in the leverage ratio becoming more binding,' Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement. 'Based on this experience, it is prudent for us to reconsider our original approach.' In its draft form, the measure would call for reducing the top-tier capital big banks must hold by 1.4%, or some $13 billion, for holding companies. Subsidiaries would see a larger drop, of $210 billion, which would still be held by the parent bank. The standard applies the same rules to so-called globally systemic important banks as well as their subsidiaries. On the whole, the plan seeks to loosen up banks to take on more lower-risk inventory such as Treasurys, which are now treated essentially the same as high-yield bonds for capital purposes. Fed regulators essentially are looking for the capital requirements to serve as a safety net rather than a bind on activity. However, governors Adriana Kugler and Michael Barr, the former vice chair of supervision, said they would oppose the move. 'Even if some further Treasury market intermediation were to occur in normal times, this proposal is unlikely to help in times of stress,' Barr said in a separate statement. 'In short, firms will likely use the proposal to distribute capital to shareholders and engage in the highest return activities available to them, rather than to meaningfully increase Treasury intermediation.' Current Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller released statements supporting the changes. The leverage ratio has come under criticism for essentially penalizing banks for holding Treasurys. Official documents released Wednesday say the new regulations align with so-called Basel standards, which set standards for banks globally.
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Buy stocks, sell bonds: How billionaire investor Bill Gross says investors should play an unpredictable market
Bond King Bill Gross says he's not very bullish on Treasurys. Gross is more optimistic about stocks, eyeing a "little bull market." He thinks the 10-year Treasury yield will struggle to fall much further from current levels. The "Bond King" shared his take on both markets this week in a post on X, predicting a "little bull market" for stocks and a "little bear market" for bonds. In his view, the 10-year Treasury yield isn't likely to dip below 4.25% soon, highlighting inflationary trends and deficit concerns. The yield on Tuesday was up slightly by about one basis point to 4.31%. Gross sees more strength in the equity markets and maintains that stocks are likely to continue rising. He cites support from the tech sector, specifically artificial intelligence companies, as a likely growth driver. Tech stocks are enjoying continued momentum, with the Nasdaq 100 index closing at a record high on Tuesday as markets cheered the Israel-Iran ceasfire. Major chip companies with high AI exposure, such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom, have all trended upward despite the high uncertainty generated by geopolitics in recent weeks. Gross's thesis is for AI to support economic growth of 1%-2%. Regarding bonds, he said "deficits/ensuing supply of bonds/and a weak dollar should keep CPI from falling below 2.5% and the 10 year from falling below 4.25%." As Treasurys are a lending benchmark for many consumer products, Gross's predictions for yields to remain elevated could complicate plans for everyday Americans. If yields remain stubbornly high, homebuyers looking for lower mortgage rates could be disappointed.
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Divided Fed proposes rule to ease capital requirements for big Wall Street banks
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday proposed easing a key capital rule that banks say has limited their ability to operate, drawing dissent from at least two officials who say the move could undermine important safeguards. Known as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, the measure regulates the quantity and quality of capital banks should be keeping on their balance sheets. The rule emanated from a post-financial crisis effort to ensure the stability of the nation's largest banks. However, in recent years as bank reserves have built and concerns have grown over Treasury market liquidity, Wall Street executives and Fed officials have pushed to roll back the requirements. The Fed will be voting on the new capital rules at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. "This stark increase in the amount of relatively safe and low-risk assets on bank balance sheets over the past decade or so has resulted in the leverage ratio becoming more binding," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement. "Based on this experience, it is prudent for us to reconsider our original approach." In its draft form, the measure would call for reducing the top-tier capital big banks must hold by 1.4%, or some $13 billion, for holding companies. Subsidiaries would see a larger drop, of $210 billion, which would still be held by the parent bank. The standard applies the same rules to so-called globally systemic important banks as well as their subsidiaries. On the whole, the plan seeks to loosen up banks to take on more lower-risk inventory such as Treasurys, which are now treated essentially the same as high-yield bonds for capital purposes. Fed regulators essentially are looking for the capital requirements to serve as a safety net rather than a bind on activity. However, governors Adriana Kugler and Michael Barr, the former vice chair of supervision, said they would oppose the move. "Even if some further Treasury market intermediation were to occur in normal times, this proposal is unlikely to help in times of stress," Barr said in a separate statement. "In short, firms will likely use the proposal to distribute capital to shareholders and engage in the highest return activities available to them, rather than to meaningfully increase Treasury intermediation." Current Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller released statements supporting the changes. The leverage ratio has come under criticism for essentially penalizing banks for holding Treasurys. Official documents released Wednesday say the new regulations align with so-called Basel standards, which set standards for banks globally.
