Latest news with #TriviumChina
Nikkei Asia
01-07-2025
- Business
- Nikkei Asia
China is quietly building a tech-driven welfare state
The city wall in Xi'an, pictured on May 1. China's government is aiming to navigate a pressing policy dilemma: how to support consumption and reduce inequality without dramatically expanding the welfare state or resorting to debt-heavy stimulus. © AP David Tingxuan Zhang is an analyst at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Last month, the Chinese government released two major policy documents that, taken together, signal a quiet but consequential shift in how it approaches social welfare.
Time of India
10-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
China's solar industry gathers as gloom deepens over demand
China 's despondent solar manufacturers face a new threat — an imminent drop-off in demand for their products that's likely to heap pressure on an already oversupplied market. Investors will have an opportunity to gauge the industry's underlying mood amid the glitz of the world's biggest solar fair in Shanghai this week. The conference and exhibition kicks off on Tuesday and typically attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors. Bloomberg The solar industry's record growth in China masks some brutal economics confronting equipment makers. Margins have collapsed as fierce competition forces them to sell at a loss. Mounting protectionism is choking off exports. Those circumstances will become even more difficult to navigate once a policy-driven rush to install panels in China peters out in the second half of the year. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like I lost my wife, now my son is in danger, please help him! Donate For Health Donate Now Undo In April alone, China installed about 45 gigawatts of solar power, more than triple the amount in the same month last year. It brings the country's total to just a few gigawatts shy of one terawatt, roughly half the world's total. That surge wasn't driven by real demand, though. Instead, developers front-loaded projects to lock in more favorable conditions before two new policies took first, beginning in May, restricts rooftop installations in particular, an area of rapid growth in recent years. The second, which came into effect earlier this month, removes price protections for generators and forces them to compete for buyers on the open market at a time when electricity supplies are ample. Bloomberg 'Once the current boom ends, the outlook for China's solar industry in the second half remains deeply uncertain,' Trivium China said in a note last month, which cast doubt on whether the record pace of expansion can be maintained. Live Events Equipment makers might struggle to recognize those boom conditions, in any case, after building too much capacity to effectively reap the rewards. Their profitability has been declining for the past two years. Five of the biggest names - JA Solar Technology Co., Jinko Solar Co., Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Tongwei Co. and Trina Solar Co. - reported a combined loss of over 8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) in the first quarter. There's probably worse to come as the developers that buy their panels scale back in coming months. Citigroup Inc. expects installations to slow to 90-95 gigawatts in the second half, from 155-160 gigawatts in the first, according to a note last month. The industry's response to its problem with overcapacity has so far been piecemeal. Last year's Shanghai event was preceded by belt-tightening, including job losses and production halts. At the end of the year, some companies initiated a program of self-discipline to manage supply. The possibility of output cuts among suppliers again surfaced in May. China's solar sector has shied away from more decisive action because the longer-term policies underpinning its growth remain intact. The government's commitment to renewables to meet its climate targets is undimmed. Beijing has made upgrading the grid to handle more clean energy a priority. Market-based pricing and cheaper solar should help displace other power sources. Although the third quarter may prove particularly bleak, construction could rebound later in the year once developers have had time to assess local implementation of the government's new pricing rules, said BloombergNEF analyst Zhao Tianyi. Additionally, installations should pick up in the fourth quarter as developers rush to meet deadlines for the utility-scale mega-projects under construction in the interior, she said. For all of the industry's travails, BNEF is still forecasting year-on-year growth in solar installations of 9% to 302 gigawatts. In that context, trying to ride out the bust, and betting that rivals fare worse, may not be a hopeless strategy.
DW
05-06-2025
- Business
- DW
How the fragile US-China trade truce is unraveling – DW – 06/05/2025
Donald Trump has accused Beijing of breaching last month's deal to cut steep tit-for-tat tariffs. Could a much-awaited call between the US and Chinese presidents break the deadlock? The world exhaled when the United States and China unveiled a 90-day tariff truce last month, pausing the escalating trade war between the globe's largest and second-largest economies, which had rattled businesses and investors. The deal, after tense negotiations in Geneva, slashed US tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China's retaliatory levies on US goods from 125% to 10%. Just three weeks later, however, US President Donald Trump reignited tensions, saying that China had "totally violated" the truce deal, without providing further details. Trump later said his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, was "extremely hard to make a deal with." China swiftly countered, asserting that Washington had imposed "discriminatory and restrictive measures" since the Geneva talks, pointing to US curbs on chip design software and warnings about artificial intelligence (AI) chips produced by Chinese tech giant Huawei. Deal stalled over US access to rare earths US policymakers have voiced frustration at China's stalling on export license approvals for rare earths and other elements needed in the high-tech, defense, and clean energy sectors. China, which dominates global rare-earth production with over two-thirds of supply and 90% of processing capacity, has imposed export restrictions on several key minerals. The US, lacking domestic rare-earth processing capacity, remains highly vulnerable to Beijing's restrictions. Confusion remains over what was agreed on rare earths in Geneva. In an interview with news agency Bloomberg on Wednesday, Cory Combs, head of critical-mineral supply chain research at Trivium China, said Washington believed that Beijing would "completely remove the requirement of an approval [for export licenses]," which Beijing said it did not agree to. Michael Hart, AmCham China president, told the Financial Times on Monday that China has now stepped up approvals to ship rare earths to several US carmakers, noting how "only a handful" of officials are handling thousands of applications. Trump's economic philosophy: A real plan or simply chaos? To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Penny Naas, a distinguished fellow at the US-based German Marshal Fund think tank, thinks the rare earths are "China's biggest card," telling DW that "a key part of the negotiation will be when and how they liberalize the trade in those products." Naas expressed little surprise at the renewed war of words between Washington and Beijing, noting that, "You often see these highs and lows and even near-death experiences before deals are reached." But with the clock ticking until August 12 — when the 90-day pause expires — and both sides accusing the other of violations, the prospects for a lasting ceasefire and a long-term deal remain uncertain. Trump uses tariffs for maximum leverage Beyond securing access to China's rare minerals, the US seeks to cut its trade deficit with China, which was $295 billion (€259 billion) in 2024 — up nearly 6% on the previous year. The Trump administration has urged Beijing to boost purchases of American goods and eliminate non-tariff barriers, such as anti-monopoly probes targeting US companies and the designation of certain American firms as "unreliable entities." Washington has also demanded further economic reforms and an end to the manipulation of the Chinese yuan, which is kept artificially low to help boost exports. In April, when Trump announced his unprecedented tariffs, the yuan hit a 20-month low of 7.2038 against the dollar and is expected to weaken further if the higher US levies are reinstated. Trump has also pressed China to strengthen efforts to curb illegal immigration and halt exports of precursor chemicals used to produce fentanyl, an opioid fueling a public health crisis in the US. Will Trump-Xi call break the impasse? With US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledging last week that negotiations have "stalled," all eyes are on whether a call between Trump and Xi will break the tariff deadlock. The US president has said for months that the two leaders were due to speak and even spoke of traveling to China for talks, without a public response from Beijing. US President Donald Trump said his Chinese counterpart is 'extremely hard' to make a deal with Image: Francis Chung/Imago The White House said Monday that a Trump-Xi call was "likely" to take place this week, a development that Antonio Fatas, an economics professor at INSEAD business school, said the US president would see as "his victory." "Trump's typically the one who calls people and tells them what to do," Fatas told DW. "But with a powerful player like China, that's not going to work. I wouldn't be surprised if China postpones the call." Although Trump will get the chance to talk to other world leaders on the sidelines of the upcoming G7 and NATO summits, the US and Chinese presidents aren't likely to meet in person until later in the year, signaling a protracted tussle that could last several more months. Tariff court battle plays into China's hands Another boon to China could be the lack of clarity over Trump's unprecedented tariffs after a US trade court last week ruled they were illegal. Although a higher court temporarily reinstated the levies, the White House has threatened to go to the Supreme Court for the ultimate ruling. "There may be a hesitancy to go all in on an offer at this moment when there's a large lack of clarity about the US position," the German Marshall Fund's Naas told DW. INSEAD's Fatas, meanwhile, predicted that the truce would be extended beyond the 90 days, adding: "Until I see the possibility of a real compromise on both sides, I'll remain very cautious and uncertainty remains incredibly high." Tariffs distract from US-China tech battle Both the Trump and Biden administrations have prioritized maintaining the US's technological edge over China, but there are growing concerns that the tariff policies are diverting resources and focus from US firms' ability to achieve this goal. Investor nervousness that the tariffs could cause a US recession has intensified. The tariffs have already increased costs and strained budgets for American tech firms, limiting their capacity to invest in research and development (R&D) at a critical time. With tariffs consuming significant attention among US policymakers, initiatives to bolster domestic innovation risk being sidelined. NVIDIA profits up, despite trade war challenges To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Beijing, meanwhile, has doubled down on the need to reduce its dependence on US technology. Through substantial state subsidies, China has advanced its capabilities in AI, quantum computing, advanced chip production, and 6G telecommunications, narrowing the technological gap with the US. Naas thinks that China has now caught up on "most of the technological advantage the US thought it had" and that US companies say they're "falling behind while spending all their time on reorienting their supply chains." "Is that the best use of their time when we're in hand-to-hand combat on the future of technology?" she asks. Edited by: Uwe Hessler
Bloomberg
04-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trivium China Sees Beijing With Rare Earths Advantage
As tensions rise between the US and China, one of the main sticking points looks to be around the issue of rare earths. And Trivium China says Beijing still has significant leverage when it comes to the critical minerals. Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research made the comments during "Bloomberg's The China Show." (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China eyes international help to resolve U.S. trade war
China says trade talks with the U.S. are important amid a 90-day truce that lowered tariffs between the two countries, but other nations need to get involved to reach a full solution. Andrew Polk, partner at Beijing-based research firm Trivium China, joins "America Decides" with analysis.
