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Miami Herald
9 hours ago
- Climate
- Miami Herald
Hurricane center says system could develop slowly off Florida coast
The National Hurricane Center continued Wednesday to keep track of a weather system that could form off one of Florida's coasts this weekend that could develop into the season's next tropical depression or storm. In its 8 a.m. tropical advisory, the NHC said an area of low pressure was forecast to develop either off of Florida's Gulf Coast or in the Atlantic along a weakening frontal boundary. "Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little," forecasters said. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." The NHC gave it a 40% chance to develop in the next seven days. If it were to become strong enough, it could become Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season after Andrea and Barry. The National Weather Service in Melbourne expects higher rain chances across the region beginning Thursday whether the low pressure system develops or not as moisture piles up against the frontal boundary forming over North Florida. "Most areas are forecast to receive 1-4 inches of rainfall through the period (some much needed), but locations that receive locally high amounts multiple days in a row will become increasingly susceptible to flooding," forecasters said. Just when showers and storms would form is uncertain because of high coverage of clouds reducing the normal daytime heating effect that brings daily afternoon storms. "As the environment becomes broadly unstable, it`ll be easier for showers and storms to develop in the overnight and morning hours," forecasters said. Models vary in where the low pressure area will form, and just how slowly it may meander over the state. If its center is over the northeast Gulf near the Nature Coast, that would continue to draw moisture up over the Florida peninsula keeping rain chances very high for the state. Some models expect it to form just offshore of Jacksonville with drier air in North Florida, although still pulling moisture across South Florida. Some models expect the low to wander between the two coasts. "Ultimately rainfall looks to remain episodic, allowing areas that receive heavy rainfall time to recover and keeping the threat for flooding limited to spotsthat get repeated rounds over multiple days," forecasters said. Rain chances could continue to remain high through Sunday and into Monday depending on how the low pressure area meanders. This is the first tropical threat to the state this year. In 2024, Florida was struck by three hurricanes, all on the Gulf coast. Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. ------------- Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Climate
- Miami Herald
Hurricane center keeps eyes on tropical system that could target Florida while Tropical Storm Barry strikes Mexico
Tropical Storm Barry disintegrated after striking Mexico early Monday morning while the National Hurricane Center continued to forecast the season's next tropical depression or storm could form off the coast of Florida later this week. In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said an area of low pressure could develop off either the southeast U.S. coast, over Florida or over the eastern Gulf as a frontal boundary is forecast to stall and weaken coming from the north. Its bubble of potential development sweeps across all of Central Florida. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little," forecasters said. The NHC gave it a 20% chance for development in the next seven days. The National Weather Service in Melbourne said to expect a high chance of rain no matter what forms around the Fourth of July and into that weekend. "Unsettled conditions with high rain chances expected to continue into the extended forecast range as the stalled front accompanied by copious moisture sags into the southeast and towards Florida," forecasters said. "Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern regardless of development. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be possible each day, increasing/compounding concerns for flooding." If it were to develop into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The second only formed Sunday morning in the Bay of Campeche off of the Mexican coast, but lasted less than a day. Tropical Storm Barry made landfall after midnight Monday having grown some in strength with sustained winds of 45 mph. By 5 a.m., though, the remnants of Barry were located about 100 miles northwest of Tampico, Mexico with winds of 30 mph as it moved northwest at 12 mph. The system was still expected to drop 3-5 inches of rain with some areas getting as much as 10 inches across portions of the Mexican states of San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas through today. "This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain," the NHC stated. The slow start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season did not see the first named storm form - Tropical Storm Andrea - last week, out in the middle the Atlantic where it spun for less than a day with no threat to land. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, though, still forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. ----------- Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
