Latest news with #TrumpAlwaysChickensOut
Sydney Morning Herald
2 days ago
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Taking us to the cliff – the psychology behind Trump's tactics
When US President Donald Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs three months ago, the spectre of world economic apocalypse looked entirely possible. From that brink to where we sit today – with equity markets hitting new highs – isn't just one for the books. It's unthinkable. Trump's unpopular, unconventional and potentially unconstitutional trade war policies rocked the world order and unleashed chaos in the markets – only to find he would walk much of it back from most of his extreme positions. The chaos-to-recovery U-turn is only one chapter in the economic fortunes of the Western world, but for now at least we can bank our positive end of financial year returns. When someone creates havoc or danger, only to play hero or saviour, medical scientists refer to it as the hero complex – a particular branch of narcissism that aligns closely with Trump and much of his behaviour and his trade policies. What's now known as the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) is just an outworking of Trump's hero complex. Playing chicken with the rest of the globe is another. The markets have learnt to discount Trump's ambit positions and recognise that he tends to take us to the cliff before walking back. Trump was clearly a shock to the system, but what's become increasingly evident over the past few months is that the world has acclimated to Trump and adapted to his particular chest-beating, hardball style.
The Age
2 days ago
- Business
- The Age
Taking us to the cliff – the psychology behind Trump's tactics
When US President Donald Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs three months ago, the spectre of world economic apocalypse looked entirely possible. From that brink to where we sit today – with equity markets hitting new highs – isn't just one for the books. It's unthinkable. Trump's unpopular, unconventional and potentially unconstitutional trade war policies rocked the world order and unleashed chaos in the markets – only to find he would walk much of it back from most of his extreme positions. The chaos-to-recovery U-turn is only one chapter in the economic fortunes of the Western world, but for now at least we can bank our positive end of financial year returns. When someone creates havoc or danger, only to play hero or saviour, medical scientists refer to it as the hero complex – a particular branch of narcissism that aligns closely with Trump and much of his behaviour and his trade policies. What's now known as the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) is just an outworking of Trump's hero complex. Playing chicken with the rest of the globe is another. The markets have learnt to discount Trump's ambit positions and recognise that he tends to take us to the cliff before walking back. Trump was clearly a shock to the system, but what's become increasingly evident over the past few months is that the world has acclimated to Trump and adapted to his particular chest-beating, hardball style.
Business Insider
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Just buy the dip: Brave investors have been rewarded during a turbulent first half of 2025
Buying stocks when the market is selling off is always a daunting prospect. On one hand, if you time it right and shares rally, you've bought at an attractive price. On the other hand, the market could just… keep falling. Luckily for brave dip-buyers in 2025, the former has been true. Despite stomach-churning volatility at the index and single-stock level, what's gone down has largely come back up. There's been a series of sharp drops this year that have all ultimately wound up as ideal buying opportunities. Fast-forward through all the madness and you have an S&P 500 cruising at record highs as the first half of 2025 winds down. Wild swings in the S&P 500 The most pronounced and sharp decline in US stocks this year — and therefore the best dip-buying opportunity — came after Liberation Day on April 2. The S&P 500 tanked 12% in a matter of days. But then it ended up recovering the whole drawdown within a month. At that point, the market was still down for the year, having been dragged lower by general tariff uncertainty for much of February and March. In the end, it was continued progress on the trade front that dug the S&P 500 out of its year-to-date hole. In early May, the US struck an initial deal with the UK, before agreeing a with China a couple weeks later to implement a 90-day pause. The most recent major development came last week when Trump said a deal had been reached with China, the same day of a new S&P 500 record high. Art Hogan, managing director and chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, partially attributes the rally off lows to immense retail-investor interest. "I think retail investors have been hardwired now to look at this market for significant pullbacks, big buying opportunities, and thus far, they've been proven correct," Hogan told BI. Data from Vanda Research supports the idea, showing that retail traders aggressively bought exposure to the S&P 500, as well as popular stocks Tesla and Nvidia (more on them later). One phenomenon that's also helped fuel dip-buying the year has been the so-called TACO trade, short for Trump Always Chickens Out. The idea is that any trade-policy-driven market sell-off will soon be reversed, because the president will backtrack on a policy proposal if investors rebel. But all of that was not enough to lift the S&P 500 to the new heights it's currently enjoying. The last leg higher has been driven by the positive geopolitical developments: an Israel-Iran ceasefire and the neutralization of Iranian nuclear assets by the US. Tesla's roller coaster ride Dip-buying success has also been on display at the single-stock level, particularly for ever-popular and particularly-volatile Tesla. The EV-maker's stock tumbled nearly 50% from highs around the time of Trump's inauguration through the start of March. The main driving forces were falling global vehicle sales and skepticism around CEO Elon Musk's involvement with the Trump administration. After bottoming on April 8, shortly after Liberation Day, the stock then embarked up a steep — albeit choppy-at-times — 63% recovery. Then Musk and Trump played out a bitter feud for the public, with the president threatening at one point to pull the Tesla CEO's government contracts. The stock fell 14% in a single day. Based on the recovery since, that was just another ideal dip-buying opportunity, as Musk said he'd be stepping away from government work. Sure, the stock is still down 21% year-to-date, but it's up more than 10% since the Musk-Trump dispute. Nvidia: From steep losses to record highs Not even the darling of the AI trade has been insulated from the volatility that's rocked markets this year. Nvidia started the year battling the rise of China's DeepSeek and its cheaper machine-learning model, which challenged long-held notions about how much money will be poured into AI. It experienced the biggest decline in company history on Jan. 27, falling 17% in a single session. But after bottoming out in early February, shares rallied as much as 20% heading into Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report. The company followed the trend of the market lower into April, amid concerns that Trump's proposed tariffs would slow economic growth, falling 33% to its year-to-date low. But it's pretty much been a straight ascent since, the perfect scenario for intrepid dip-buyers that kept the faith during a rocky first quarter. The company has most recently overtaken record highs yet again, and Wall Street can't get enough. One firm boosted its price target on the stock to $250, implying an eventual $6 trillion valuation.
Forbes
5 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit New All-Time Highs As Stocks Complete Tariff Comeback
The S&P 500 just notched its first record in more than four months, officially overcoming the brutal spring selloff in the midst of President Donald Trump's starkest tariff threats. After crashing nearly 20% amid the tariff chaos, the S&P has set a new record for the first time ... More since February. Getty Images The leading U.S. stock market benchmark rose 0.2% at Friday's open to 6,158.48, topping the S&P's previous all-time high of 6,147.43 set Feb. 19. It's a remarkable comeback from the steep losses earlier this year, as the S&P is up 27% from its 15-month low set April 7, just before Trump blinked on his most country-by-country 'Liberation Day' tariffs. The Nasdaq Composite index also set a new record, gaining 0.3% to its first all-time high since December, at 20,247.45. The 30-company Dow Jones Industrial Average, the third of the major U.S. equity indexes, is still 3% short of its December apex. The stock market records came despite a worse-than-expected inflation report out earlier Friday revealing prices rose 2.7% in May on an annual basis, far higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. That further muddies arguments for near-term interest rate cuts, which would help boost stock valuations as corporate profit margins would benefit from less expensive borrowing costs. Key Background The last two months' stock market recovery largely followed the White House's continued relent on trade, as Wall Street increasingly bet Trump would further back down on tariffs – even minting a popular phrase among traders, Trump Always Chickens Out, or the 'TACO' trade. Driving Friday's modest bounce were strong earnings results from athletic wear giant Nike and further progress in the U.S.-China trade talks. After crashing nearly 20% amid the Liberation Day ado, the S&P is up just below 3% since Trump took office in January, excluding dividends, in line with historic annualized returns. The U.S.' largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, anticipates a rocky patch for stocks during the second half of the year. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the top global strategist at the bank, forecasts the S&P will end 2025 at about 6,000, a 2% decline from Friday's level. Lakos-Bujas cited the 'lagged effects of new policies (i.e., tariffs, immigration, DOGE)' as the primary reasons for his expectation the U.S. economy may materially slow during the latter half of the year. Forbes Dow Jumps 500 Points: Why Stocks Are Roaring Back Despite Tariff And Geopolitical Questions By Derek Saul
Sydney Morning Herald
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
US attacks Iran LIVE updates: Trump joins Israel's war after bombing Iran's nuclear facilities; Iranian top diplomat to meet Vladimir Putin
Latest posts Latest posts 4.05am Opinion: Trump ignores intelligence advice and attacks anyway In the end, Israel's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, got what he wanted – America involved in his aerial campaign against Iran. And in a timeframe determined by Israeli rather than US calculations, writes Middle East and security analyst Rodger Shanahan. It is an extraordinary turn of events. Neither the International Atomic Energy Agency nor America's own Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard supported Netanyahu's claim about the 'golden information' possessed by Israel indicating an imminent threat posed by any weaponised nuclear program. Yet, US President Donald Trump told reporters not to listen to Gabbard. Once again, the White House has committed its forces to a conflict in the Middle East without making a proper case. 4.04am Analysis: Master stroke or mistake? Five months after the starter's gun fired on Donald Trump's second presidency, he has made his most consequential decision, writes our North America correspondent Michael Koziol. The decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities had been one faced by many of his predecessors, who ultimately opted against the idea. The merits of this cannot and will not be known today, not until the damage to the three Iranian sites has been assessed and the regime's retaliation, whatever that may be, has taken place. But politically, this move fundamentally changes the shape of the Trump presidency. The accusation of timidity and indecision – Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) – can no longer be credibly levelled against him. Did that irksome critique contribute to his resolve? We don't know. But it is becoming clearer that Trump has followed a predetermined path, or at the very least, seized on an opportunity with relish – and along the way, he has obscured his intentions to America and the world. 4.04am The latest on the crisis in the Middle East The United States yesterday launched an assault on three nuclear sites in Iran, bringing the US directly into a conflict that threatens to escalate. US President Donald Trump claimed in an address to the American people that nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and – crucially – Fordow, the 'nuclear mountain' that could only be penetrated by American military technology, had been 'completely and totally obliterated'. Trump said he hoped that Iran would engage in peace talks, but he also threatened any retaliatory action would be met with force and lead to 'tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days'. Overnight, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said America 'does not seek war' with Iran despite entering the latest Middle East conflict on the side of Israel. What comes next? Iran's top diplomat will travel to Moscow today to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The International Atomic Energy Agency called an emergency meeting as fears grow of escalation in the Middle East. As for Trump? North America correspondent Michael Koziol writes: 'Despite his declaration of success, it is too soon to tell whether this was a master stroke or a mistake.' How will Iran respond? The regime has threatened a full and ferocious response with 'everlasting consequences', and had already flagged its intention to target US military and diplomatic sites if America entered the war. However, Iran's options are limited, according to Middle East and security analyst Rodger Shahanan, who writes: 'It is relatively weak militarily and Israel has air supremacy. Iran's armed non-state supporting actors have either been degraded, or internal political or broader national considerations have forced them to critically re-evaluate that support.' What about the enriched uranium? A senior Iranian source has told Reuters that most of the highly enriched uranium had been removed from the Fordow nuclear facility before the US attack. Experts have said chemical contamination was the most likely consequence of damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, but the prospect of nuclear fallout or widespread contamination was low. More on this from science reporter Angus Dalton here. Map: Nuclear sites hit by US military bombing raid
