Latest news with #TrustFund
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Social Security benefits could face cuts by 2033. Here's how to plan for the worst-case scenario.
Listen and subscribe to Decoding Retirement on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. The Social Security trust fund could be depleted by early 2033, triggering 23% across-the-board benefit cuts for all recipients. This sobering reality from the latest trustees report has retirement experts sounding the alarm about the need for immediate action and creative solutions. Marcia Mantell, president of Mantell Retirement Consulting, recently discussed the implications of the 2025 Social Security trustees report on the "Decoding Retirement" podcast, providing actionable advice for Americans facing this potential crisis. The trustees report, released in mid-June, painted a concerning picture of Social Security's financial health. While the depletion date for the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund remained at 2033 — consistent with last year's projection — the timeline has actually accelerated. "Instead of the end of 2033 depleting the reserve account, it's now the beginning of 2033," Mantell explained. "So it's a problem." The acceleration stems from several factors, including the Social Security Fairness Act, which restored benefits to previously excluded government workers; declining fertility rates; and a worsening worker-to-retiree ratio. Currently, fewer than three workers support each beneficiary, down from more than five workers per beneficiary in 1960. The crisis extends beyond Social Security. The Medicare Part A trust fund, which covers hospital insurance, is now projected to be depleted by 2033 — three years earlier than previously forecast. "I was surprised, though, on the Medicare side that the Part A ... is projected to be depleted," Mantell said. "The reserve account [is] to be depleted three years earlier, also in 2033." She noted that healthcare expenses typically rise at about twice the rate of general inflation, making the Medicare trust fund particularly vulnerable. However, she expressed optimism about Medicare's Innovation Center, which "continually look[s] for innovative ways to help with both quality of care and pricing." The $20,000 question To illustrate the potential devastation, Mantell highlighted some scenarios for different income levels. For instance, a couple where both spouses earned high wages throughout their careers and delayed claiming until age 70 would see an annual benefit of $89,000 before cuts. But after a 23% reduction, they would receive an annual benefit of $68,000 — an annual loss of $20,000. "It's bad enough that your guaranteed benefit from Social Security would be cut," Mantell said. "But my bigger issue is, where do you get it from? Even if you have a fairly healthy retirement account, do you want to spend an extra $20,000 a year?" For younger workers, the long-term impact is even more staggering. A 20-year-old earning $100,000 today could face a net present value loss of $800,000 over their lifetime if they retire at 70. Net present value represents the current value of a stream of future income, discounted to reflect the time value of money. The potential modification of the Affordable Care Act could compound these problems, with an estimated 8 million people potentially losing ACA coverage and another 8 million facing Medicaid cuts. Mantell describes this as "catastrophic" because it places the entire burden on "regular hardworking consumers to figure this stuff out" while policymakers struggle to find solutions. Actionable strategies for current workers and pre-retirees Given the potential cuts, how should individuals plan for this worst-case scenario? Mantell advised "planning much earlier" and saving more if you can, particularly if you're in your 20s. "That's your best decade to save for retirement," Mantell said. "So get saving, kids. I mean, you've really got to own this." Another tip is to start retirement income planning by age 50 and plan for higher withdrawal rates from retirement accounts to compensate for reduced Social Security. Additionally, you can eliminate zeros from your earnings record by continuing to work or increasing your income. "I believe you can never save enough," Mantell noted. "Saving more is super important. It gives you lots of flexibility, but ... not everyone can do that." For those who cannot increase savings significantly, she emphasized understanding how potential cuts could affect their specific situation. Thinking beyond traditional Social Security solutions Mantell also advocated for innovative policy solutions rather than accepting conventional approaches of simply raising taxes or cutting benefits. "We are not being nearly creative enough when we only offer two choices," Mantell said. "Let's be way more creative." She questioned whether the system could use different benefit calculation formulas — perhaps one for workers in physically demanding jobs who may need to retire early versus those in white-collar positions, or separate formulas based on income levels. The current "straightforward" solutions proposed by the Social Security Administration — raising revenue by one-third or cutting benefits by one-fourth — are what Mantell calls "draconian" and "not tenable for regular normal people." On the Medicare side, Mantell sees promise in existing innovation efforts: "There's also this really cool thing at CMS, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, called the Innovation Center," she said. "And they continually look for innovative ways to help with both quality of care and pricing. So I would like to think they're [going to] be really busy for the next five to eight years trying to look at new ways to sort of skin this cat." The bottom line The Social Security and Medicare crisis is no longer a distant threat — it's a looming reality requiring immediate attention from both policymakers and individual Americans. While the challenges are significant, they're not insurmountable if addressed with creativity, urgency, and shared responsibility. "We deserve a secure retirement," Mantell said. "We just don't deserve a superrich retirement unless we've done it on our own." For Americans approaching or in retirement, the message is clear: Hope for the best policy outcomes, but plan for the worst-case scenario. The time for complacency has passed, and the time for action is now. Got questions about retirement? Email Robert Powell at yfpodcast@ and we'll answer them in future episodes. Each Tuesday, retirement expert and financial educator Robert Powell gives you the tools to plan for your future on Decoding Retirement. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service. Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Social Security benefits could face cuts by 2033. Here's how to plan for the worst-case scenario.
Listen and subscribe to Decoding Retirement on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. The Social Security trust fund could be depleted by early 2033, triggering 23% across-the-board benefit cuts for all recipients. This sobering reality from the latest trustees report has retirement experts sounding the alarm about the need for immediate action and creative solutions. Marcia Mantell, president of Mantell Retirement Consulting, recently discussed the implications of the 2025 Social Security trustees report on the "Decoding Retirement" podcast, providing actionable advice for Americans facing this potential crisis. This embedded content is not available in your region. The trustees report, released in mid-June, painted a concerning picture of Social Security's financial health. While the depletion date for the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund remained at 2033 — consistent with last year's projection — the timeline has actually accelerated. "Instead of the end of 2033 depleting the reserve account, it's now the beginning of 2033," Mantell explained. "So it's a problem." The acceleration stems from several factors, including the Social Security Fairness Act, which restored benefits to previously excluded government workers; declining fertility rates; and a worsening worker-to-retiree ratio. Currently, fewer than three workers support each beneficiary, down from more than five workers per beneficiary in 1960. The crisis extends beyond Social Security. The Medicare Part A trust fund, which covers hospital insurance, is now projected to be depleted by 2033 — three years earlier than previously forecast. "I was surprised, though, on the Medicare side that the Part A ... is projected to be depleted," Mantell said. "The reserve account [is] to be depleted three years earlier, also in 2033." She noted that healthcare expenses typically rise at about twice the rate of general inflation, making the Medicare trust fund particularly vulnerable. However, she expressed optimism about Medicare's Innovation Center, which "continually look[s] for innovative ways to help with both quality of care and pricing." The $20,000 question To illustrate the potential devastation, Mantell highlighted some scenarios for different income levels. For instance, a couple where both spouses earned high wages throughout their careers and delayed claiming until age 70 would see an annual benefit of $89,000 before cuts. But after a 23% reduction, they would receive an annual benefit of $68,000 — an annual loss of $20,000. "It's bad enough that your guaranteed benefit from Social Security would be cut," Mantell said. "But my bigger issue is, where do you get it from? Even if you have a fairly healthy retirement account, do you want to spend an extra $20,000 a year?" For younger workers, the long-term impact is even more staggering. A 20-year-old earning $100,000 today could face a net present value loss of $800,000 over their lifetime if they retire at 70. Net present value represents the current value of a stream of future income, discounted to reflect the time value of money. The potential modification of the Affordable Care Act could compound these problems, with an estimated 8 million people potentially losing ACA coverage and another 8 million facing Medicaid cuts. Mantell describes this as "catastrophic" because it places the entire burden on "regular hardworking consumers to figure this stuff out" while policymakers struggle to find solutions. Actionable strategies for current workers and pre-retirees Given the potential cuts, how should individuals plan for this worst-case scenario? Mantell advised "planning much earlier" and saving more if you can, particularly if you're in your 20s. "That's your best decade to save for retirement," Mantell said. "So get saving, kids. I mean, you've really got to own this." Another tip is to start retirement income planning by age 50 and plan for higher withdrawal rates from retirement accounts to compensate for reduced Social Security. Additionally, you can eliminate zeros from your earnings record by continuing to work or increasing your income. "I believe you can never save enough," Mantell noted. "Saving more is super important. It gives you lots of flexibility, but ... not everyone can do that." For those who cannot increase savings significantly, she emphasized understanding how potential cuts could affect their specific situation. Thinking beyond traditional Social Security solutions Mantell also advocated for innovative policy solutions rather than accepting conventional approaches of simply raising taxes or cutting benefits. "We are not being nearly creative enough when we only offer two choices," Mantell said. "Let's be way more creative." She questioned whether the system could use different benefit calculation formulas — perhaps one for workers in physically demanding jobs who may need to retire early versus those in white-collar positions, or separate formulas based on income levels. The current "straightforward" solutions proposed by the Social Security Administration — raising revenue by one-third or cutting benefits by one-fourth — are what Mantell calls "draconian" and "not tenable for regular normal people." On the Medicare side, Mantell sees promise in existing innovation efforts: "There's also this really cool thing at CMS, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, called the Innovation Center," she said. "And they continually look for innovative ways to help with both quality of care and pricing. So I would like to think they're [going to] be really busy for the next five to eight years trying to look at new ways to sort of skin this cat." The bottom line The Social Security and Medicare crisis is no longer a distant threat — it's a looming reality requiring immediate attention from both policymakers and individual Americans. While the challenges are significant, they're not insurmountable if addressed with creativity, urgency, and shared responsibility. "We deserve a secure retirement," Mantell said. "We just don't deserve a superrich retirement unless we've done it on our own." For Americans approaching or in retirement, the message is clear: Hope for the best policy outcomes, but plan for the worst-case scenario. The time for complacency has passed, and the time for action is now. Got questions about retirement? Email Robert Powell at yfpodcast@ and we'll answer them in future episodes. Each Tuesday, retirement expert and financial educator Robert Powell gives you the tools to plan for your future on Decoding Retirement. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service. Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter
Wall Street Journal
11-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Want to Repair Social Security? Enlist the IRS
Trustees estimate that the Social Security Trust Fund will run dry by 2032 ('Fears for Social Security Stir Search for a Fix,' U.S. News, July 7). When this happens, the $1.6 trillion paid out each year will decrease by an estimated 23%, or $368 billion. The Trump administration could head off this problem by providing sufficient resources to the Internal Revenue Service to enable it to close the estimated $118 billion employment-tax gap, the amount of employment taxes the IRS fails to collect every year. If the administration decided to close the entire tax gap of $606 billion and dedicate the additional funding to the trust fund, benefit cuts may be avoided. Yet after the rescission of much of the $80 billion Inflation Reduction Act funding for the IRS, an indefinite hiring freeze, the firing of approximately 7,000 probationary employees and the deployment of special agents to arrest foreign nationals in the country without proper authorization instead of working tax cases, the chances of this happening are infinitesimally small.
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Social Security Has a $67 Billion Problem. Should Current and Future Retirees Be Concerned?
The Social Security program is beginning to pay out more than it's bringing in. Social Security benefits could be cut by 23% in 2033 if the deficit continues at its current rate. Multiple factors are contributing to the Social Security deficit, including more retirees, longer life expectancy, and government inaction. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › Social Security is one of America's most valued and important social programs, but unfortunately, it's facing a significant problem: The cost of the program is exceeding how much it's bringing in. Given the deficit that Social Security had in 2024, should current and future retirees be concerned? For most current retirees, no. However, if you're a current worker or approaching retirement, it's an issue worth keeping an eye on, because potential changes to Social Security will eventually affect you. Let's look at the $67 billion issue that Social Security is facing. To better grasp Social Security's issue, it's important to understand how Social Security's funding works. Social Security is primarily funded through payroll taxes. The current rate is 12.4%, with both employers and employees paying 6.2% each (self-employed people are responsible for the full 12.4%). This money is then put into the Social Security Trust Fund, which consists of two parts: The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund. The OASI program is responsible for paying benefits to retirees, their families, and survivors of deceased recipients. The DI program is responsible for paying benefits to disabled workers and their families. In theory, working-age people pay into the system to support current retirees, with the understanding that other working-age people will do the same for them once they're in retirement. The Social Security Administration's (SSA's) 2025 Social Security Trustees Report noted that the Social Security program cost $1.485 trillion in 2024, while only bringing in $1.418 trillion. That resulted in a $67 billion deficit for the year. According to the report, the OASI trust fund could be depleted by 2033, at which point Social Security would only be able to pay 77% of its expected benefits. A recent study by the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimated that about 21.8 million retirees rely solely on Social Security for income. So a 23% drop in benefits is far from ideal. At the current rate of depletion, the Social Security Trust Fund could be underfunded by more than $25 trillion through 2099. Without changes, Social Security would need to cut benefits by about 23% beginning in 2034. There are a few factors contributing to the Social Security deficit, but here are four key ones: An influx of retirees: Baby boomers are retiring in large numbers without enough workers in the workforce replacing them (and paying into the Social Security program). People are living longer: You don't stop receiving Social Security until you pass away, so as people live longer, they collect benefits longer, increasing Social Security's costs. Income for the lower and middle classes is stagnant: Only income up to a certain amount is subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($176,100 in 2025). This means that as high-earners begin earning more, they're paying less of their income into the program. Less interest earned on reserves: Social Security reserves are put into Treasury bonds to earn interest. However, interest rates were historically low for a considerable period, limiting the amount of interest Social Security could earn on its reserves. The good news is that this isn't the first time Social Security has faced funding issues, and the federal government was able to address the problem. The bad news is that it's going to take bipartisan government action to resolve the funding shortfall, and there haven't been many encouraging signs of this happening in the immediate future. In the meantime, current workers should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This could mean increasing contributions to retirement accounts, investing more actively, and preparing for Social Security to potentially account for a smaller portion of your retirement income than previously expected. Regardless of what happens, it's always better to be overprepared than underprepared. If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. One easy trick could pay you as much as $23,760 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Join Stock Advisor to learn more about these Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Social Security Has a $67 Billion Problem. Should Current and Future Retirees Be Concerned? was originally published by The Motley Fool
Newsweek
19-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Social Security Is Running Out of Money: What To Know
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The trust funds that help pay Social Security benefits to millions of Americans are due to run out of money in less than a decade. In an annual report released on Wednesday, trustees of the Social Security Administration (SSA) have said retirement benefit funds could be depleted by 2034, unchanged from last year's prediction, while disability funds will remain solvent until 2099. Social Security forms the backbone of retirement security for tens of millions of Americans, with the Social Security Administration (SSA) distributing monthly checks to some 70 million people. Here is everything you need to know about the report, and what it means for the future of your benefits. What Are the Trust Funds? There are two main sources that help pay benefits. These are the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays for retirement, spousal and survivor benefits, and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund, which endows programs like Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for disabled Americans. The majority of benefit payments are funded by payroll taxes, income tax on Social Security benefits, and interest on trust-fund reserves; this is set at a rate of 6.2 percent for employees and companies, and 12.4 percent for self employed workers, up to the current threshold of $176,100 in earnings per year. These funds are distinct and legally separate, but are often combined as "OASDI," to reflect the financial health of Social Security. When put together, the total funds that pay benefits are now expected to be depleted in 2034—a year earlier than previously expected. Stock image/file photo: A Social Security card rests with U.S. dollars. Stock image/file photo: A Social Security card rests with U.S. dollars. GETTY What Happens When the Trust Funds Run Out? The report outlines that, if nothing is done to shore up the funds, from 2033 onward, retirement, spousal, and survivor benefits will be payable only at 77 percent of current rates. When combined, benefits would be reduced to 81 percent of current rates starting in 2034—a year earlier than previously thought. Why Are Trust Funds Running Out? The long-term outlook for the combined Social Security trust fund worsened this year due to three main factors, according to the trustees report. First, the repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset, implemented by the passing of the Social Security Fairness Act in January, increased benefits for some workers, accelerating the fund's depletion. Second, the expected recovery in fertility rates was delayed by 10 years, now assumed to reach normal levels by 2050. In recent years, Social Security has faced paying out more benefits to older Americans while the pool of workers paying taxes is depleting, and fertility rates have also dropped, contributing to the problem. Wednesday's report still projects that the U.S. fertility rate will eventually rise to 1.9 children per woman, up from the current rate of 1.6. However, trustees now expect this shift to happen by 2050—10 years later than previously predicted. Third, projections for the share of gross domestic product (GDP) going to worker wages were lowered, reducing expected payroll tax revenue, according to the report. How Can It Be Fixed? Improving the funding outlook for Social Security benefits requires action from lawmakers. This is not an unfamiliar situation—the trust funds faced insolvency back in the early 1980s. Following an act of Congress, a range of changes were made to how Social Security is funded, including accelerating payroll tax increases, gradually raising the retirement age, and making a portion of Social Security benefits taxable. More changes are being considered as the threat of insolvency looms again. Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, both Democrats, recently reintroduced the Medicare & Social Security Fair Share Act, which would impose payroll taxes on wages and investment income above $400,000. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has made similar proposals, albeit implementing payroll taxes on income above $250,000. He has also advocated for officially combining OASI and DI funds. Republicans, on the other hand, have supported the raising of the retirement age. In March 2024, prior to the presidential election, the Republican Study Committee, comprising 170 GOP lawmakers, published a budget proposal that would include "modest adjustments to the retirement age for future retirees to account for increases in life expectancy" to tackle the solvency issue. Social Security advocacy groups have called for lawmakers to prioritize taking action. "It is time to enact common-sense legislation to bring more revenue into Social Security," Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, said in a statement emailed to Newsweek. "Current and future seniors (nearly 50 percent of whom rely on their benefits for all or most of their income)—should not be asked to bear the cost of improving the program's finances." "This report shows that Social Security is fully affordable, costing only about 6 percent of GDP at the end of the 21st century," Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, said. "It has a modest funding shortfall, which is still years away. There is no question Congress will act to avert the shortfall, as it always has in the past. The question is what Congress will do."
