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Middle East Eye
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
'Vindicated': Unscathed by war, Gulf states look to capitalise on Israel and Iran's losses
The Gulf states see two losers in the conflict between Israel and Iran, analysts and Arab officials tell Middle East Eye. Having squeaked through the hostilities with little damage themselves, leaders in the energy-rich Gulf are now in a position to tap their relative advantages in Israel and the Islamic Republic. Watching the smoke rise from Tehran was a change for leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who just a few years ago were fending off drones and missiles launched at them from Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli warplanes made hay of Iran's weak air defences. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals were assassinated, and ballistic missile launchers and arms factories were destroyed. The war culminated in the US bombing Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. And that is the aspect that US and Israeli officials are hammering home about the conflict in their interactions, three Arab officials told MEE. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters But for the first time in a generation, Arab rulers got to see how Israel would fare against a conventional army. Israeli encroachment stopped 'The Israelis showed strong spirit in supporting their military…They were brave. However, the home front in Israel couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes,' one Arab official told MEE, sharing an assessment of the war review in a leading Arab capital. MEE spoke with officials representing three Arab capitals for this article. All said that in their country's corridors of power, the assessment is that Israel was the first to signal it was ready for a ceasefire after having exhausted its list of military targets and seeing that the Islamic Republic was not facing collapse. 'Benjamin Netanyahu was on a rise until now,' Bader al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told MEE. 'Of course, Israel demonstrated military superiority over Iran's skies. But Iran stopped the Israeli encroachment and hit back. The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken.' 'The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken' - Bader al-Saif, Kuwait University The perception of Israeli vulnerability is important to understand how the US's Arab allies will approach Israel in the future, experts say. It could give them more leverage with Israel, including states that normalised ties with it in 2020 under the Abraham Accords. The same goes for Tehran, the Arab officials told MEE. They expect Gulf leaders to offer investments to Tehran and are not ruling out high-level visits in the coming months. In April, Saudi Arabia's defence minister and brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Tehran. Despite saying Iran's nuclear programme has been 'blown up to kingdom come', US President Donald Trump says his administration will restart talks with Iran. Iran says its nuclear programme is "badly damaged". Either way, the Gulf states backed the nuclear talks, and their sway in Tehran could increase even more now, Arab officials told MEE. 'The Gulf gets a hearing in Washington. At the end of the day, that remains the tremendous leverage it has with Iran - calling up Trump in the middle of the night and him answering the phone,' one Arab diplomat told MEE. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia sealed deals for hundreds of billions of dollars with the US when Trump visited the region in May. At the time, they appeared to get concessions. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia, Trump stopped US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, MEE revealed. He also lifted sanctions on Syria. 'The Israelis were brave...[but] the home front couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes' - Arab official The Gulf states were unable to stop Israel's attack on Iran. For a moment, it looked dicey. Although the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have differing priorities, experts say none of them wanted to see the US directly join Israel's offensive. In the end, all the Arab officials who spoke with MEE characterised the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities as 'limited" or "minimal". Iran's retaliatory strike on al-Udeid military base in Qatar was coordinated well in advance with Gulf states, MEE reported. 'This crisis has really elevated the Gulf states' leadership,' Ayham Kamel, Middle East president at Edelman Public and Government Affairs, told MEE. 'They were able to play a behind-the-scenes diplomatic role and avoid any significant attack on their territory. They triangulated their cooperation to be inclusive of key states in the broader region, particularly Iran, Turkey and Israel,' he added. Sympathy with Iran? For years, the US tried to recruit Gulf states into an alliance with Israel to counter Iran. When Hezbollah dominated Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria, and the Houthis were lobbing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia - that pitch was attractive. It reached its peak before the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel, when US Central Command tried to create a 'Middle East Nato' linking Israel to Gulf states and Egypt's air defence. But when Israel and Iran came to blows, instead of joining in Israel's offensive, the US's Arab allies lobbied Trump to stop the war. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time' - Patrick Theros, former US ambassador Israel and Iran exchanged direct fire twice in 2024. The US did receive some Saudi and Qatari support defending Israel last year. But Iran choreographed its missile barrages then. This round was the first bare-knuckled battle between them, with Israeli jets pounding Tehran and Iran hammering major cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all condemned Israel's attack on Iran. Qatar has historically maintained closer ties to the Islamic Republic, in part because they share the world's largest natural gas field. But this conflict saw the UAE and Saudi Arabia publicly and privately press for a ceasefire, two Arab officials told MEE. 'US and Israeli officials may not have anticipated how serious the Gulf is about de-escalation. They know now. Saudi Arabia is on the top of that list,' Patrick Theros, a former US diplomat who served as ambassador to Qatar and a high-ranking official in the UAE, told MEE. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, including Saudi Arabia, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time,' Theros said. Israel and US modified F-35s to enable Iran attack without refuelling, sources say Read More » Not so long ago, Israel may have been able to convince Saudi Arabia to join in its attack. In 2018, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman compared Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Hitler and said he was trying to 'conquer the world'. Then, Saudi Arabia became bogged down fighting Iran's allies in Yemen. In 2019, two major Saudi oil facilities were attacked. At the time, President Trump shrugged off the assault, which emanated from Iran. In the following years, Saudi Arabia moved to patch up ties with the Islamic Republic. In 2023, China brokered a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. It worked for everyone during the war. The Strait of Hormuz, which China relies on for its oil shipments, remained open. Iranian oil exports soared despite Israeli attacks, and Saudi Arabia's oil installations were safe again. 'The Gulf isn't where it was at in 2019,' Saif, at Kuwait University, told MEE. "We [the Gulf] feel vindicated that we did not join the war.' Gaza ceasefire and normalisation The Gulf states' main focus is reducing their economies' dependence on oil revenue. Saudi Arabia has pushed through liberalising social reforms and is pursuing an ambitious Vision 2030 agenda that includes luxury Red Sea tourism. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi want to build AI data centres. One overlooked element of the change, Theros told MEE, is that the sectarian tensions that feed into the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in spheres of influence like Yemen and Syria have ebbed, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pursues modernising social reforms. 'Now that Mohammed Bin Salman has de-Wahhabised Saudi Arabia, the rhetoric out of the clerics about the Shia has been curbed,' Theros said. 'That makes it harder for Israel to bring Saudi Arabia along.' If anything, public opinion in the Gulf has turned more negative towards Israel over its war on Gaza, where over 56,000 Palestinians have been killed. A poll released by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the first months of the Gaza war revealed 96 percent of people in Saudi Arabia oppose normalisation with Israel. Trump signalled on Wednesday that he wants to build out his fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran to Gaza, where he said 'great progress is being made' to end the war. Ending that conflict is a prerequisite to any talk of normalising ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Under Saudi pressure, Trump refrained from lobbying the kingdom to cut a deal with Israel during his visit to Riyadh in May, but told Saudi Arabia, 'you'll be greatly honouring me' by doing so. Saudi Arabia says it needs to see Israel take irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state to normalise relations. Diplomats say that after the Israel-Iran war, the price Saudi Arabia will demand is going up. 'Saudi Arabia has a very good sense of where the Arab street is going,' one Arab official told MEE. 'It will insist on something serious.'
Middle East Eye
12 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
At least 50 African people at risk of imminent execution in Saudi Arabia
Dozens of people from the Horn of Africa on death row in Saudi Arabia have been told that their executions could take place 'any day', inmates and their relatives told Middle East Eye. The men are all from Ethiopia and Somalia and have been convicted of drug trafficking, which carries a death sentence in Saudi Arabia. Held at the Najiran prison near the border with Yemen, inmates say they were notified several weeks ago that their sentences, typically beheadings, would be carried out soon. 'They have told us to say our goodbyes,' one of the convicted men, who preferred not to be named, told MEE. 'We were told that executions would begin shortly after Eid al-Adha, and now they have started.' New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters A list of names of the convicted obtained by MEE includes 43 Ethiopians, and 13 Somalis. According to inmates, at least six were put to death over the past month. Rise in executions Amnesty International has documented at least 52 executions for drug-related offenses in the kingdom from January to April. Keen to soften the country's conservative image as part of its Vision 2030 economic reform programme and ahead of hosting of the 2034 Fifa World Cup, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has enacted a whirlwind of reforms liberalising some elements of Saudi society. He has also repeatedly pledged to amend the country's harsh justice system, which lists adultery, apostasy and 'sorcery' as capital offences. Saudi Arabia is among the world's leading executioners. 'All of the Ethiopians and Somali executions we documented this year were linked to hashish possession or smuggling' - Duaa Dhainy, European Saudi Organization for Human Rights However, an unofficial moratorium on capital punishment for drug-related offences enacted in 2021 has been lifted. Executions have subsequently accelerated. Over 300 people were put to death last year, a record tally for the kingdom. This year, 100 executions were documented by May alone. One possible reason for the spike, according to experts, is that additional drugs appear to have been added to the list of those meriting capital punishment. 'We've monitored death-sentence cases of numerous foreign nationals for years, and drug offences are usually linked to substances like amphetamines or cocaine,' Duaa Dhainy, a researcher with the European Saudi Organization for Human Rights, told MEE. 'However, we've noticed that from 2024 onwards, many foreigners have been executed for possession of hashish, so they've expanded the offences that can lead to execution. All of the Ethiopians and Somali executions we documented this year were linked to hashish possession or smuggling.' For the family of 27-year-old Khalid Mohammed Ibrahim, the news the executions for drug offences were resuming has plunged them into heartache. Ibrahim's older brother insists his sibling is innocent and said it has been a harrowing seven years for the family since he was arrested. 'He tried to enter the country through Yemen,' Muleta told MEE. 'A border guard encouraged him to tell his jailers that he was a drug smuggler, saying it would get him sent to court and quickly cleared since there was no evidence. He believed them.' Fleeing persecution Muleta said Ibrahim was effectively forced out of his own country. Hailing from the town of Chelenqo in Ethiopia's Oromia region, he was among the students who took part in the Oromo protests of 2016, which eventually culminated in the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn two years later. Both brothers were among thousands of youths jailed for taking part in the anti-government uprising, Muleta recalled. 'We were told that executions would begin shortly after Eid al-Adha, and now they have started' - prisoner at Najiran jail, Saudi Arabia Expelled from school and unable to apply for university, Ibrahim tried to move on with life, getting married and working as a labourer for a few years. But then his wife became pregnant. 'He wanted to afford a better life for his son, but [the government] closed all opportunities for him,' said Muleta. 'That is why he left Ethiopia.' Ibrahim never lived as a free man in Saudi Arabia, as he was detained immediately upon arrival in 2018. After 11 court appearances, he was sentenced to death in October 2019. He has never had the opportunity to meet his son, who is now eight years old. Dhainy said cases like Ibrahim's typically proceed through the courts to the royal court, Saudi Arabia's highest, where death sentences are signed by the king. 'However, sometimes the documents show that the accused never had a lawyer,' Dhainy said. Trade unions from 36 countries protest against Saudi Arabia's treatment of migrant workers Read More » 'Also, there is no guarantee that the detainee understood the charges, had a translator or was aware of the content of documents, including confessions, that they are sometimes made to sign.' Muleta said his brother told him that torture and beatings are commonplace at Najiran prison. Emotionally drained, the family's torment has been worse in recent weeks. 'It has been hell for my parents,' Muleta adds. 'They are going crazy. We have tried everything, we tried begging officials for help, but no one has done anything.' Several inmates on death row at Najiran also told MEE that their families have spent years pleading for assistance from their government, including Ethiopian diplomats based in Saudi Arabia. The Ethiopian Embassy in Saudi Arabia, which has a documented history of covering up the suffering of Ethiopians caught up in the Saudi judicial system, has been criticised for its inaction on the matter. Middle East Eye has asked Ambassador Muktar Kedir Abdu and the Ethiopian foreign ministry for comment, without response. Somali pressure In Somalia, intense media coverage and campaigning by families of death row inmates has led to the Somali government openly appealing to Saudi authorities for leniency, and greater public awareness of the danger. Hiiraan Online, a Somali news site, has covered the plight of Somalis sentenced to death in Saudi Arabia extensively. 'Our reporting has helped bring national and international attention to the plight of nearly 50 Somalis facing execution in Saudi Arabia - many of them coerced into smuggling under false pretences,' Dalmar Gure, editor-in-chief of Hiiraan Online, told MEE. 'Together with pressure from families, Somali media coverage helped spur diplomatic engagement, including talks on prisoner transfers and appeals for clemency.' The Najiran prison contingent isn't the only large group of Africans on death row in Saudi Arabia. Earlier this month, UN officials raised concerns about the imminent executions of 26 Egyptians held at Tabouk prison in the north on similar drug offences. They condemned the sentences as a 'violation of international law'. Last week, over 30 rights groups, mostly based in the Middle East and Africa, published an open letter calling on the crown prince to commute the death sentences of over a hundred Ethiopians, Egyptians and Somalis.
Middle East Eye
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
British pro-Israel MP suggests Palestine Action activists should expect to be shot
British MP Rupert Lowe has suggested the Palestine Action activists who recently infiltrated a military base to spray-paint planes should have expected to be fired at. The independent parliamentarian said in a post on X on Thursday that "if you break into a military base with the intent to cause damage, you should expect to be shot," adding that "nobody of sound mind would disagree". The British government is set to ban the direct action group Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation after activists broke into RAF Brize Norton, the largest airbase in Britain, last week and spray-painted two planes while on electric scooters. The activists then evaded security and escaped the base, which they said they targeted because flights leave there daily "for RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, a base used for military operations in Gaza and across the Middle East". Lowe was embroiled in an antisemitism scandal last month after a leaked recording showed him remarking on the size of a camera, saying: "In days gone by you'd call it a Jewish camera, but that would be politically incorrect. Because it's so small." New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters The MP was previously a member of Nigel Farage's anti-immigration Reform party, but was suspended in March after calling Reform a "protest party led by the Messiah" and criticising Farage. Lowe has been vocally pro-Israel and said on 11 June in a Facebook post: "Getting rather fed up of MPs spending their time opining about Palestine rather than focusing on what's actually happening in the country they're supposed to represent." Israel's war on Gaza: Who are Palestine Action? Read More » In February, he said that "not a single Palestinian 'refugee' should be allowed to settle in the UK". Lowe has also called for bans on non-stun halal and kosher slaughter and face veils. Earlier this month, the MP revealed he asked his gamekeeper to shoot his 17-year-old dog in the back of the head at his estate in Gloucestershire. He said the dog, Cromwell, could no longer use his back legs and described his decision as "humane". He did not take the dog to a vet, he added, because dogs often panic when they visit a vet. Banning Palestine Action Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has said she will bring legislation to proscribe the group Palestine Action before Parliament on 30 June. Several MPs, including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, have voiced opposition to the move, describing it as an attack on the right to protest. If passed, the legislation will designate the pro-Palestine group as a proscribed terrorist organisation, making it illegal not only to be a member of the group but also to show support for it. It would mark the first time a direct action group has been proscribed in the UK, placing Palestine Action on a par with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) under British law. Palestine Action have launched a fundraising campaign to challenge the ban.
Middle East Eye
15 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
Gaza: Israeli soldiers admit to deliberately killing unarmed aid seekers
Israeli troops have admitted to deliberately shooting and killing unarmed Palestinians waiting for aid in the Gaza Strip, following direct orders from their superiors. According to soldiers and officers who spoke to Haaretz, commanders instructed them to open fire on people seeking food at aid distribution points despite knowing they posed no threat. One soldier described the distribution centres as a "killing field". "Where I was stationed, between one and five people were killed every day," the soldier told Haaretz. "They're treated like a hostile force, no crowd-control measures, no tear gas. Just live fire with everything imaginable: heavy machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars." New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Israel blocked all aid and goods from entering the Gaza Strip for nearly three months beginning in March, pushing the two million residents of the besieged enclave into a severe hunger crisis. In late May, the US- and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF), a recently launched and controversial aid group, began distributing limited food parcels at four locations. These centres generally operate for just one hour each morning, according to Haaretz. 'Our form of communication is gunfire' - Israeli soldier Officers and soldiers told Haaretz they fired on people who arrived before opening hours to prevent them from approaching, and again after the centres closed to "disperse" the crowds. "Once the centre opens, the shooting stops, and they know they can approach," one soldier said. "Our form of communication is gunfire." The soldier also said they opened fire "early in the morning if someone tries to get in line from a few hundred metres away, and sometimes we just charge at them from close range", even though there was "no danger to the forces." "I'm not aware of a single instance of return fire. There's no enemy, no weapons," one soldier said. In the area where he served, the operation was reportedly referred to as Operation Salted Fish, named after an Israeli children's game. Israeli forces have killed at least 550 Palestinians waiting to receive aid and wounded over 4,000 more. Haaretz reported that the Military Advocate General unit had instructed the army's General Staff Fact-Finding Assessment Mechanism - a body tasked with reviewing incidents that may constitute violations of the laws of war - to investigate suspected war crimes at the aid sites. Starvation as weapon of war The Israeli military has been repeatedly accused by UN experts of using starvation as a weapon of war. According to the United Nations Children's Fund (Unicef), the number of malnourished children is increasing "at an alarming rate," with 5,119 children between the ages of six months and five years old admitted for treatment for acute malnutrition in just the month of May. Unrwa chief slams US-Israeli aid distribution system in Gaza as 'war crime' Read More » A group of 15 human rights and legal organisations has called for the suspension of aid operations by the GHF, warning that the initiative may be complicit in international crimes. The organisations criticised the GHF for a lack of "transparency, impartiality, and accountability", citing concerns over its opaque structure and the absence of publicly available operational plans. According to their letter, the new relief delivery method, which has sought to wrest distribution away from major aid groups led by the United Nations, is a "radical and dangerous shift away from established international humanitarian relief operations". It added that the "privatized, militarized aid distribution" is "dehumanizing, repeatedly deadly and contributes to the forced displacement of the very population it purports to help", referencing the ongoing killings of Palestinians by Israeli forces near GHF aid points.
Middle East Eye
15 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
Heavy Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon kill at least one woman
Israeli fighter jets launched a series of heavy air strikes on the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on Friday, killing at least one woman and wounding 20 others, according to the local health ministry. Local media reported that the lethal strike targeted a residential apartment near a teacher training centre. A total of 20 Israeli air strikes were recorded. According to Lebanese state media, Friday's air strikes were "the most intense" on southern Lebanon since the end of the 66-day war last November. Lebanese President Michel Aoun condemned the strikes as part of 'Israel's continued violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and the November ceasefire agreement,' and called for 'a decisive response from the international community". New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters The Israeli army said in a statement that it launched air strikes targeting a Hezbollah site used for managing the group's fire and defence system. It claimed, without evidence, that the site was part of a damaged underground project that Hezbollah had attempted to repair in recent days. Israel is reported to have violated the November 2024 ceasefire almost daily. As of April, Israeli forces had killed at least 71 people in Lebanon following the ceasefire agreement, according to the United Nations. Friday's attack come after Israel's 12-day bombing campaign on Iran, killing 627 civilians. The Iranian response killed 28 people in Israel, according to local authorities.
