02-07-2025
Fresh polling on Harris, Newsom after LA
Presented by California Environmental Voters
POLLING PALOOZA — Gov. Gavin Newsom's favorability ratings are surging. Kamala Harris is still the clear favorite to be the next governor, if she decides to run. And voters want more action to fix the state's housing shortage.
Those are the key takeaways of a new poll out today from researchers at the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology, which was shared first with Playbook. Among its findings:
TALE OF TWO GAVINS: Two differently worded questions gauged Newsom's support before and after he took on President Donald Trump over immigration raids, protests and the deployment of the National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles last month.
In early June, voters were asked whether they approved of Newsom's handling of his job as governor, and only 36 percent said yes. After Newsom's feud with the president exploded, voters were asked if they had a favorable impression of the governor, and 56 percent answered yes.
The comparison, though not direct, may suggest a boost in Newsom's support at home since he became more vocal in confronting Trump. Meanwhile, Trump's approval in California barely budged, climbing from 33 percent to 34 percent in an apples-to-apples comparison of voters' impressions of him before and after he sent the Guard to Los Angeles.
KAMALA'S LUKEWARM SPOT: Harris would be Californians' top choice for governor if she entered the race. That said, just 41 percent of those surveyed said they'd choose the former vice president over an unnamed Republican — and many voters say they are unsure whom they would support.
Harris set an end-of-summer deadline for a decision about the contest. When asked to pick between Harris or an unnamed Republican, 29 percent of respondents chose the unnamed GOP candidate, according to the poll. About 16 percent said they didn't know, and 14 percent said they wouldn't vote.
Harris has been intensifying her outreach to longtime supporters, even as some Democratic donors express a lack of enthusiasm and have told POLITICO that they fear her candidacy would be a reminder of her loss in 2024.
BUILD, BABY, BUILD: California voters overwhelmingly listed the state's worsening housing shortage as the biggest problem leaders in Sacramento need to do more to address. Moreover, 33 percent of likely voters say housing is their single highest priority — almost twice as many as listed the No. 2 issue, health care. Public safety and road and bridge maintenance trailed as the third and fourth priority issues in the poll.
The UCI-OC survey was conducted before state lawmakers and Newsom approved an aggressive plan to turbocharge housing construction by slashing environmental reviews that were previously required for many new projects. Now, most housing projects in urban areas will be exempt.
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WHERE'S GAVIN? In Los Angeles for a morning news conference touting California's expanded Hollywood film tax credit.
CAMPAIGN YEAR(S)
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: GIBBS IN — Frontline Democratic freshman Rep. George Whitesides is getting a GOP challenger for his competitive northern LA County district: Jason Gibbs, a Santa Clarita city councilmember.
Gibbs is launching his campaign today with the backing of former Republican Rep. Mike Garcia, who held the seat for five years before losing to Whitesides last November by just under three points.
'Washington is broken — it could use more problem solving and less political games,' Gibbs said in a statement. 'Families here are being crushed by rising costs, crime, and a political class that's completely out of touch. I'm a husband, an engineer, and a local leader who knows how to get results. That's what our district needs.'
The contest will be among the most closely watched in California. The Cook Political Report ranks the seat as 'lean Democrat.' — Melanie Mason
SAN DIEGO
BALANCE OF POWER: The stakes were high but turnout was not in an election that will determine whether Republicans or Democrats control local government in California's second-largest county. A special election for the vacant seat on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors featured Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, a Republican, against Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, a Democrat.
Fewer than 20 percent of voters cast ballots, and Aguirre was up by about seven points, just a few thousand votes, in the early count. A seat on the five-member board is officially a nonpartisan office. But there are two Republicans and two Democrats on the board, and Tuesday's election will break a deadlock over how the county responds to Medicaid cuts under the megabill working its way through Congress as well as the sweeping deportation campaign under President Donald Trump.
National politics has already intruded. The special election was called in the majority-Latino south county district to replace Nora Vargas, who abruptly resigned in December citing concerns about her personal safety after she backed an effort to prevent county resources from being used to support federal immigration enforcement. — Ben Fox
ON THE HILL
TRADING BLOWS — Democratic Reps. Dave Min and Linda Sánchez led a letter needling the Trump administration for not landing more trade deals ahead of the upcoming expiration of its 90-day freeze on sweeping tariffs. They pressed for information on the status of negotiations and benefits that Trump and his family members have received from foreign nationals, warning that gifts like the president's jet from Qatar could represent conflicts of interest.
'This dynamic has created an ongoing recipe for corruption in which President Trump personally stands to benefit from lavish gifts, business deals, and favors being showered upon him and his inner circle in exchange for tariff relief,' they wrote.
The messaging likely foreshadows more Democrats pivoting back to talking about tariffs before Trump's pause on across-the-board import levies ends July 8, even as the focus of the minority party's attacks is on the congressional megabill to cut taxes and social safety net programs. The letter also infused conflict-of-interest allegations — which have been disputed by the White House — with more traditional economic arguments against protectionist policy.
'While we remain concerned that this trade strategy imposes immense uncertainty on businesses, workers, and consumers, including many that we represent, we have growing worries that it may also violate federal ethics laws—including the Constitution's Foreign Emoluments Clause,' the representatives wrote.
TOP TALKERS
PARAMOUNT SETTLES: Paramount Global will pay Trump $16 million to settle his lawsuit over edits to a '60 Minutes' interview last fall with Harris before the presidential election, money that will go to his future presidential library, the Los Angeles Times reports. Paramount did not offer an apology or express regret. The president had sought $20 billion in damages.
OFF THE MARKET — The home of late Sen. Dianne Feinstein and her late husband, financier Richard Blum, has been sold to an unknown buyer for $19 million. But signs point to the buyer having a potential connection to New York as records show it was purchased by a limited liability company created in the Empire State this month, The San Francisco Chronicle reports. Charlie McCabe of San Francisco Capital Advisors said the home, which was previously valued at roughly $21 million based on reports from 2023, was paid for using 'all cash.'
HOWLING START — COYOTE Media Collective, a newly announced, independent SF-based news outlet, hit its initial fundraising goal of $80,000 within one week and now hopes to raise an additional $70,000, Underscore SF reports. The total $150,000 would go toward wages for its 11 employees and freelancers, and to ramp up its publishing.
CLIMATE AND ENERGY
SILENCE IS GOLDEN — California regulators missed a key deadline Tuesday to finish their rules requiring businesses to report their greenhouse gas emissions — and that could save them in court. Read last night's California Climate to see how the delay is bolstering the state's argument against industry's request to immediately halt the laws.
AROUND THE STATE
— The Pentagon said it will pay San Diego's General Dynamics-NASSCO at least $72.6 million to develop submarine tenders. (The San Diego Union-Tribune)
— The jury in the trial for Sean 'Diddy' Combs reached a partial verdict on four of five counts and will continue deliberating until it reaches a consensus on count one. (Los Angeles Times)
— A new study that counts unsheltered populations in three neighborhoods in Los Angeles revealed a decrease in the population in 2024 overall compared to the year before. (LAist)
Compiled by Juliann Ventura
PLAYBOOKERS
PEOPLE MOVES — Longtime political strategist Melanie V. Ramil has joined the California Democratic Party as deputy executive director. Ramil has served as an adviser to the party the last six months and was the California deputy state director for the Harris-Walz campaign.
— Adrian Percer, previously a partner at Weil, Gotshal and Manges, has joined WilmerHale as a partner in the firm's Palo Alto office.
— Samantha Kemp is now a director of government affairs at Target Corporation. She was previously at Albertsons Companies as a deputy director of government affairs.
BIRTHDAYS — Rep. Doug LaMalfa … Assemblymember Dr. Jasmeet Bains (favorite treat: Chocoflan) … Graph Massara at SEMAFOR … Derek Gianino of Wells Fargo … Snap's Gina Woodworth … Brooke Oberwetter … Ethan Oberman … comedian Larry David … Rivka Dori
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