Latest news with #US-Asean
Straits Times
19-07-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Diplomats dismissed: Inside the overhaul reshaping Trump's foreign policy
Find out what's new on ST website and app. The office responsible for managing US-Asean engagement has been shuttered as part of a drive in which more than 1,300 State Dept staffers were shown the door. - A bout of mass layoffs has shaken up America's diplomatic corps and threatens to unravel the Trump administration's claim that Asean is important to the United States. The office responsible for managing US-Asean engagement was shuttered on July 11 as part of what the Department of State is calling a 'historic' reorganisation.
Business Times
13-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Greenback fades as Singapore dollar, ringgit, baht shine in Asean foreign exchange shift
[SINGAPORE] US-Asean foreign exchange (FX) markets were lukewarm as announcements of a China-US trade agreement revealed few details following talks in London on Wednesday (Jun 11), with widespread uncertainty now becoming the norm for investors. DBS analysts Eugene Leow and Philip Wee said: 'Implied volatility is now reflecting little to no stresses and is essentially back at pre-Liberation Day levels.' This hardly surprised market analysts, who observed that mere hints of favourable news – in a world where policy reversals have become the norm – are no longer as likely to move markets. Maybank analyst Saktiandi Supaat said: 'Markets now show a tendency to react less to sweeping headlines, and only a concrete agreement or something permanent can drive markets into a more lasting direction.' De-dollarisation Indeed, more permanent trends continue to work against the dollar as Asean currencies appreciate amid USD weakness. The dollar index traded at about 98.4 on Thursday morning, having fallen about 5 per cent since before Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs on Apr 2. Once-attractive USD deposits are beginning to unwind in Asean portfolios, with pairs such as USD and SGD declining about 4.5 per cent from before the tariff announcement, and the USD/Thai baht falling 5.5 per cent. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Since around 2022, Asean corporates and investors have built up sizeable onshore US dollar deposits, said a Bank of America (BOA) report by FX strategists Abhay Gupta and Claudio Piron. 'FX deposits in most of Asean are near the highs, with a total of US$230 billion across the Asean-4 economies,' they said. Drawn to the greenback's relative strength, higher deposit rates and its reserve currency status, Asian exporters and other investors avoided converting their earnings into local currencies to maintain their dollar holdings. But now, this may be changing. A trend of 'de-dollarisation' has taken hold in global markets as the greenback loses its charm among Asean investors and corporates. 'The dollar is starting to be viewed as overvalued since the end of last year,' Gupta told The Business Times. 'Global corporations have been caught long (in the) US dollar as they held on to their export proceeds for far too long,' UOB said. Gupta said that institutional investors are likely to be the quickest to rebalance their deposits, as themes such as a weakening dollar, uncertainty towards Washington's escalating fiscal deficit, and waning confidence in US credibility prompt a rebalancing away from dollar deposits. Malaysia and Thailand, which run persistent current account surpluses, are likely to experience the strongest appreciation pressures as investors convert US holdings back into local currencies. The two countries feature prominent US holdings in pension funds and mutual funds, which are typically more risk-averse and adopt larger hedging ratios to defend their dollar positions, Gupta noted. Such hedging activity would place further buying pressure on local currencies as financial institutions lock in forward exchange rates, he noted. Together with the Singapore dollar, these three low-yielding currencies have led gains due to their exposure to global trade cycles, the BOA economists said. Corporates and retail investors are likely to rebalance as well, but will not do so as immediately as institutional investors, said Gupta. This will provide lagging tailwinds into Asean currencies such as Indonesia's rupiah and the Philippines' peso. He told BT: 'As the deposits mature, people realise that their total return has not been as attractive, so they gradually convert back to local currency deposits.' Unlike the much quicker drawdowns on the dollar by institutional investors, retail and corporate selling pressure could sustain tailwinds for Asean currencies well into 2026, he said. But others are less certain of the Asean wave's sustainability in the short-term, with UOB noting higher levels of implied volatility in the foreign exchange options markets. 'Historically, such periods of heightened foreign exchange volatility have often preceded phases of weakness in Asian currencies,' said UOB. The bank also cited tariff doubts and slower growth prospects for Asia, cautioning that the region's currency upside may be limited in the near term. UOB projected that most Asian pairs with the greenback would reverse their uptrend through Q3, before resuming their climb in 2026. Central bank moves For countries running high rates, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, the dollar's slide is a welcome shift. As both countries' central banks implement inflation targeting monetary policies, wrote Gupta and Piron, stronger currencies would further mitigate inflation by keeping import prices low. Yet, as uncertainty about tariffs and external demand remains, stronger regional currencies could hurt export competitiveness and have to be carefully managed by central banks, Gupta warned. 'Central banks have been easing, but in a measured way, due to uncertainty towards the final size of the tariffs,' he said.
Malaysiakini
01-06-2025
- Politics
- Malaysiakini
Can Anwar escape hairdryer treatment at White House?
COMMENT | Last week, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that he had written to US President Donald Trump, seeking his support to organise a meeting between Asean and the United States. It is unlikely that Trump will accord US-Asean status, as he prefers bilateral trade negotiations between individual countries, believing he will have better negotiating power and perhaps be easier to shout down. However, if Anwar believes it will be a repeat of the orchestrated trip by former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak in 2017, where the latter, among others, offered to help Trump "make America great again," he is mistaken. Although Najib told Parliament that he did not pay to meet Trump, it was subsequently revealed in court hearings that Grammy Award-winning rapper...
Malaysiakini
27-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysiakini
What's in store for Rafizi
Good morning. Here's what you should know today. Key Highlights What's in store for Rafizi What's been going on at Asean summit What's in store for Rafizi Rafizi Ramli may have lost the PKR deputy presidency, but the party could have duties for him in mind. The new leadership is set to convene soon to do a post-mortem on the party polls, and discuss appointed positions, including for Rafizi. In the previous PKR election, Rafizi's opponent for the deputy presidency, Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, was appointed as the party secretary-general after his defeat. The Pandan MP, however, has signalled that he is not keen on taking on an appointed post. He said that his successor Nurul Izzah Anwar had alluded to such an appointment during a meeting before the party polls, but that he had rejected the offer. In the meantime, Rafizi is still serving as economic minister while the Asean summit is ongoing in what might be his swan song in office. HIGHLIGHTS What's been going on at Asean summit The two day Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur has wrapped up. Here are some highlights in brief: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim wrote to US President Donald Trump to request a US-Asean meeting. Asean adopted the Kuala Lumpur Declaration, a foundation to guide development and cooperation until 2045. They also adopted the Asean Community Vision 2045, a roadmap on labour, mobility, and the economy. Gulf countries announced plans to increase trade with Asean from US130.7 billion in 2023 to US$180 billion by 2032. HIGHLIGHTS Views that matter In case you missed it
Malaysiakini
27-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysiakini
What's in store for Rafizi
Good morning. Here's what you should know today. Key Highlights What's in store for Rafizi What's been going on at Asean summit What's in store for Rafizi Rafizi Ramli may have lost the PKR deputy presidency, but the party could have duties for him in mind. The new leadership is set to convene soon to do a post-mortem on the party polls, and discuss appointed positions, including for Rafizi. In the previous PKR election, Rafizi's opponent for the deputy presidency, Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, was appointed as the party secretary-general after his defeat. The Pandan MP, however, has signalled that he is not keen on taking on an appointed post. He said that his successor Nurul Izzah Anwar had alluded to such an appointment during a meeting before the party polls, but that he had rejected the offer. In the meantime, Rafizi is still serving as economic minister while the Asean summit is ongoing in what might be his swan song in office. HIGHLIGHTS What's been going on at Asean summit The two day Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur has wrapped up. Here are some highlights in brief: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim wrote to US President Donald Trump to request a US-Asean meeting. Asean adopted the Kuala Lumpur Declaration, a foundation to guide development and cooperation until 2045. They also adopted the Asean Community Vision 2045, a roadmap on labour, mobility, and the economy. Gulf countries announced plans to increase trade with Asean from US130.7 billion in 2023 to US$180 billion by 2032. HIGHLIGHTS Views that matter In case you missed it
