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Business Standard
7 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Trump's tariff war on the world is making the Americans pay the price too
Since returning to the White House, US President Trump has launched a wave of new import tariffs under a 'reciprocal' trade policy. Starting April 2, broad duties were imposed on many countries, though some were later revised through bilateral deals. New tariffs on sectors like autos and steel have pushed the average effective tariff rate to 18.4 per cent, the highest since the 1930s, according to a study by Yale's Budget Lab. These duties are levied by US importers and passed on to consumers. How much are US households paying due to tariffs? The new study by Yale University has estimated that Trump's tariff regime will result in an average income loss of $2,400 per household in the short term. The burden is unevenly distributed. While low-income families could lose up to $1,300, wealthier households may see a higher nominal hit (around $5,000) but with less impact on their financial stability, the report said. Price increases are already visible. Leather goods could become 40 per cent more expensive, clothing by 38 per cent, and textile products by 19 per cent. Food prices are expected to rise by 3.4 per cent on average, with fresh produce jumping up to 7 per cent. Vehicle prices could increase by 12.3 per cent, adding nearly $6,000 to the cost of a new car, the Yale report mentioned. Are prices in the US already rising? US consumer inflation stood at 2.7 per cent in June, up from 2.4 per cent in May. Economists say stockpiling earlier in the year helped buffer price hikes temporarily. But recent data shows a clear rise in prices of tariff-affected goods like appliances, books, toys, and computers. Harvard's Pricing Lab found that prices for imports and related domestic goods are rising faster than those for unaffected items, indicating that tariff costs are now feeding into broader inflation. What's gotten pricier in the US under Trump? Groceries and food: Key imported staples such as coffee, tea, bananas, avocados, seafood (like shrimp and salmon), and packaged ingredients for snacks/ processed foods have become more expensive, according to a CNBC report. Food costs overall are up 3.4 per cent in the short run, with fresh produce prices rising up to 6.9 per cent initially before stabilising 3.6 per cent higher than before the tariffs. Electronics and appliances: Items like iPhones (mostly manufactured in China) are potentially up by 30-40 per cent in price, with power tools, washing machines, dryers, televisions, and home electronics all costlier as a result of tariffs on imported components. Cars: Both imported vehicles and US-manufactured cars (which rely on foreign parts) have seen price hikes. Cars could cost 11-12 per cent more on average, translating to $3,000–$5,900 extra for a new vehicle. Toys and household items: Products such as Barbie dolls, toys, leggings, and even luxury goods like handbags are now notably pricier (up to 43 per cent for some toys). Furniture, lumber, drywall: Much imported from Asia, these building and home items are also seeing substantial increases in price. What are the economic impacts on the US economy? The Yale study warned that if current tariffs persist, US GDP growth could fall by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-26, with an estimated 500,000 job losses by the end of this year. Unemployment is projected to rise by 0.3 percentage points. JP Morgan's analysis echoes these concerns, highlighting that tariffs are stoking inflation and reducing consumer demand. While they generate revenue ($28 billion in June 2025 alone, triple the monthly average of 2024), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that revenue gains will be more than offset by losses from tax cuts. Is the trade deficit shrinking as intended? Despite the Trump administration's stated goal of narrowing the trade deficit, the opposite trend has emerged. US companies have been importing goods in bulk ahead of tariff enforcement, leading to a spike in imports. Exports have shown only modest gains, according to the US Census Bureau data. The goods trade deficit hit a record $162 billion in March 2025 before dropping to $86 billion in June, according to data from the US Census Bureau. Economists suggest that underlying structural imbalances, such as the US consuming more than it produces, play a larger role in the deficit than foreign trade practices. With multiple academic studies now highlighting the economic strain of Trump's tariffs on its own citizens, the long-term viability of Trump's protectionist approach remains under scrutiny, both at home and abroad.
Calgary Herald
3 days ago
- Automotive
- Calgary Herald
Auto tariffs stoke layoff angst in Canada's once-proud Motor City
Article content An hour from Toronto, downtown Oshawa seems to exude the vibe of a pleasant small town. But signs of economic stress are multiplying in the place that once fashioned itself as Canada's motor city. Article content Lines form early outside the food bank on Simcoe Street where customers load strollers with pasta and bags of bread. Homeless encampments dot the river trail. Inside local food joints like Ciao Amici, a lunch stop serving Italian specialties, conversations drift toward layoffs. On that front, there's a lot to talk about. Article content Article content Article content Unemployment has surged in Oshawa and now tops 9%, one of the highest rates of any Canadian city. In May, shortly after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on automobiles, General Motors Co. said it planned to reduce output at the only Canadian assembly plant it owns that builds pickup trucks. The move affects some 700 jobs at the factory. Many more people will feel the ripple effects. Article content Article content As the Trump administration tries to pull more automotive jobs into the US, Oshawa's reckoning is a warning to other manufacturing cities. Article content What's jarring for the residents of Oshawa is that, not so long ago, the city was on the way back. That GM assembly line near the shore of Lake Ontario died once, when the automaker closed it at the end of 2019. Then the Covid pandemic hit, demand for vehicles surged — and GM made the surprising decision to reopen the old plant. Last year, about 150,000 Chevrolet Silverados were built here, according to the Automotive News Research & Data Center — many of them destined for dealers' lots in the US. That's the norm for Canadian auto assembly plants, which export most of what they build. But it's a two-way street. Walk around a Ford or GM or Chrysler dealership in Toronto or Vancouver or Calgary, and you will find more US-manufactured models for sale than Canadian ones. Article content Canada, which has roughly one-eighth the population of the US, is the largest foreign buyer of American-made cars and light trucks. When parts are included, the US runs a trade surplus in automotive with Canada — a product of decades of tight integration between the countries. That system, however, doesn't fit within Trump's vision for the sector or for trade. In March, he reiterated his threat to use tariffs to 'permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA!'
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Oil prices dip to settle at 3-week low on US and China economic concerns
Oil prices eased on Friday and settled at a three-week low as traders worried about negative economic news from the US and China and signs of growing supply. Losses were limited by optimism US trade deals could boost global economic growth and oil demand in the future. Brent crude futures fell 74 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to settle at $68.44, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 87 cents, or 1.3 per cent, to settle at $65.16. Those were the lowest settlement levels for Brent since July 4 and WTI since June 30. For the week, Brent was down about 1 per cent with WTI down about 3 per cent. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet US President Donald Trump on Sunday in Scotland. European Union officials and diplomats said they expected to reach a framework trade deal this weekend. The euro zone economy has remained resilient to the pervasive uncertainty caused by a global trade war, a slew of data showed on Friday, even as European Central Bank policymakers appeared to temper market bets on no more rate cuts. In the US, new orders for US-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately, suggesting business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. Trump said he had a good meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and got the impression that the head of the US central bank might be ready to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. In China, the world's second-biggest economy, fiscal revenue dipped 0.3 per cent in the first six months from a year earlier, the finance ministry said, maintaining the rate of decline seen between January and May. Growing supplies? The US is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA, starting with US oil major Chevron , to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday. That could boost Venezuelan oil exports by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), news US refiners would welcome, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote. Iran said it would continue nuclear talks with European powers after "serious, frank, and detailed" conversations on Friday, the first such face-to-face meeting since Israel and the US bombed Iran last month. Venezuela and Iran are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Any deal that could increase the amount of oil either sanctioned country could export would boost the amount of crude available to global markets. OPEC said the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) scheduled to convene on Monday does not hold decision-making authority over production levels. Four OPEC+ delegates said an OPEC+ panel is unlikely to alter existing plans to raise oil output when it meets, noting the producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels. OPEC+ includes OPEC and allies like Russia. In Russia, the world's No. 2 crude producer behind the US, daily oil exports from its western ports are set to be around 1.77 million bpd in August, down from 1.93 million bpd in July's plan, Reuters calculations based on data from two sources show. In the US, energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the 12th time in 13 weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.
Business Recorder
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Dollar gains, Pound weakens against euro
NEW YORK: The US dollar advanced on Friday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve was justified in taking a patient approach to cutting interest rates, while tariff negotiations showed more clarity. 'The dollar regained some ground the past two days, after being on the defensive earlier in the week ... supported mostly by an encouraging set of US economic data that argues for continued patience at the Fed,' said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London. The US currency, however, showed little reaction to data showing new orders for key US-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately. That suggested business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. The greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop in a month, ahead of more tariff dialogue and central bank meetings next week, while sterling dipped after softer-than-expected British retail sales data. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves. Politics is a factor for both central banks, most dramatically in the US, where President Donald Trump once again pressed for lower interest rates on Thursday as he locked horns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Brown Brothers' Haddad said the Fed's monetary policy is being 'overshadowed by the political pressure to lower interest rates. That's one of the reasons why I think the dollar's upside is limited.' The dollar managed to recover a touch against the euro late on Thursday, however, after Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he could. 'The market relief was based on the fact that Trump refrained from calling for Powell to go, although that was based on Trump's view that Powell would 'do the right thing',' said Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG. He added, however, that 'the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House will unlikely go away and remains a downside risk for the dollar.' Falls against the euro and yen leave the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, at 97.45, on track for a drop of 0.75% this week, its weakest performance in a month, though it bounced back 0.3% on Friday. Meanwhile, in Japan, though the trade deal signed with the US this week could make it easier for the BOJ to continue rate hikes, the bruising loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in upper house elections on Sunday complicates life for the BOJ. The yen was softer, thanks in part to below-expectations Tokyo inflation data, with the dollar last up 0.5% at 147.66 yen, though on course for a weekly 0.7% fall. The euro was down 0.2% at $1.1728 but set for a weekly gain of 0.8%. The pound was last down 0.6% on the dollar at $1.3434.
Business Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Oil prices dip to settle at three-week low on US and China economic concerns
[NEW YORK] Oil prices eased on Friday (Jul 25) and settled at a three-week low as traders worried about negative economic news from the US and China and signs of growing supply. Losses were limited by optimism US trade deals could boost global economic growth and oil demand in the future. Brent crude futures fell 74 US cents, or 1.1 per cent, to settle at US$68.44, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 87 US cents, or 1.3 per cent, to settle at US$65.16. Those were the lowest settlement levels for Brent since Jul 4 and WTI since Jun 30. For the week, Brent was down about 1 per cent with WTI down about 3 per cent. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet US President Donald Trump on Sunday in Scotland. European Union officials and diplomats said they expected to reach a framework trade deal this weekend. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The euro zone economy has remained resilient to the pervasive uncertainty caused by a global trade war, a slew of data showed on Friday, even as European Central Bank policymakers appeared to temper market bets on no more rate cuts. In the US, new orders for US-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately, suggesting business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter. Trump said he had a good meeting with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and got the impression that the head of the US central bank might be ready to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. In China, the world's second-biggest economy, fiscal revenue dipped 0.3 per cent in the first six months from a year earlier, the finance ministry said, maintaining the rate of decline seen between January and May. Growing supplies? The US is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA, starting with US oil major Chevron, to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday. That could boost Venezuelan oil exports by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), news US refiners would welcome, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote. Iran said it would continue nuclear talks with European powers after 'serious, frank, and detailed' conversations on Friday, the first such face-to-face meeting since Israel and the US bombed Iran last month. Venezuela and Iran are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). Any deal that could increase the amount of oil either sanctioned country could export would boost the amount of crude available to global markets. OPEC said the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) scheduled to convene on Monday does not hold decision-making authority over production levels. Four Opec+ delegates said an Opec+ panel is unlikely to alter existing plans to raise oil output when it meets, noting the producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels. Opec+ includes Opec and allies like Russia. In Russia, the world's No 2 crude producer behind the US, daily oil exports from its western ports are set to be around 1.8 million bpd in August, down from 1.9 million bpd in July's plan, Reuters calculations based on data from two sources show. In the US, energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the 12th time in 13 weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. REUTERS
