Latest news with #USDiplomacy
Bloomberg
07-07-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Rubio Set to Make First Trip to Asia as Tariffs Deadline Looms
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to make his first trip to Asia as top US diplomat this week to discuss trade and security with regional counterparts who are looking to avoid President Donald Trump's looming tariff increases. Rubio flies to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on Tuesday for a gathering of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. While the US isn't a full member of Asean, American officials often participate in its summits, as do China and Russia.
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's 35% Tariff Threat Feeds Japan's Worst-Case Scenario Fear
(Bloomberg) -- US President Donald Trump threatened Japan with tariffs of up to 35% as he ramped up tensions for a third straight day, fueling fears of a worst-case scenario among market players and raising doubts over Tokyo's tactics in trade talks. Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer California Exempts Building Projects From Environmental Law What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing Japan should be forced to 'pay 30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan,' Trump said, again flagging the possibility that across-the-board tariffs could go much higher than the 24% initially penciled in for July 9. 'I'm not sure we're going to make a deal. I doubt it with Japan, they're very tough. You have to understand, they're very spoiled.' Market participants and analysts warned against taking Trump's comments at face value and suggested that some kind of deal will eventually get done. But they also warned that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may need to change tack from a friendly and firm stance that is now leading the two sides to brinkmanship. 'There is some risk of a US tantrum that results in higher punitive actions by Washington this month,' said Kurt Tong, a former senior US diplomat in Asia who's now a managing partner at the Asia Group. 'If that happens, Japan may have no choice but to hit back with its own specific countermeasures.' Trump's latest threat fits in with a high-pressure deal-making strategy that sometimes results in big last-minute concessions on both sides, as seen with China, but market players still need to game out how to position themselves should talks founder. While few analysts see Japan's stocks collapsing on a no-deal scenario, some of them forecast the Nikkei 225 to fall into the 38,000 range, a decline of more than 4%, rather than rallying above 40,000 if there's an agreement. The Nikkei 225 edged down 0.6% to close at 39,762 on Wednesday while the yen was trading at 143.88 against the dollar, down around 0.3%. Japan has so far stood firm in negotiations over across-the-board reciprocal tariffs, insisting that they be removed along with additional sectoral tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum. The car duties are particularly painful for Japan as the industry contributes the equivalent of almost 10% of gross domestic product and employs around 8% of the workforce. Tokyo has insisted that a 'win-win' deal must encompass all the tariffs in one go with Ishiba preferring no deal to a bad deal ahead of a July 20 upper house election. The prime minister on Wednesday reiterated his view that focusing on jobs and investment in the US was the way forward, just like it was for Nippon Steel as it patiently sought to change Trump's view and take over US Steel. 'Japan is the biggest global investor in the US and the world's biggest contributor to US jobs,' Ishiba said in Tokyo on Wednesday. 'That means Japan is different from other countries.' But as July 9 gets closer, some observers say more needs to be done to convince the US to back off. 'We have to work on Trump himself, to first try to avoid the tariffs to be imposed from July 9,' said Ichiro Fujisaki, former Japanese ambassador to the US, adding that the president's remarks show that Tokyo hasn't brought enough to the table yet. 'We don't have something like rare earths but the US is dependent on Japanese industry as well. About half of materials for making semiconductors come from Japanese industry,' Fujisaki said, pointing to a possible area of leverage, too. In the meantime, market players are evaluating the potential scale of the fallout. 'There is a lot more risk of things falling apart than is being priced in by the market,' said Zuhair Khan, a fund manager at UBP Investments. 'There is always the risk of a policy blunder by either side.' He points to the 32,000 Nikkei level on the day Trump first announced the reciprocal tariffs. 'If the probability of a no deal is 25% then the Nikkei should be at 38,000.' What Bloomberg Economics Says... 'If Japan is ultimately forced to pay reciprocal tariffs at those rates, on top of the 24% rate announced on 'Liberation Day' — currently suspended at 10% — the macroeconomic fallout would be sizable. Our estimate through a model of global trade suggests a medium-term GDP hit of around 1.2%, roughly double the 0.6% drag expected under the current levy.' — Taro Kimura, economist For the full report, click here. The point of imposing a deadline in negotiations is to create an opportunity for leverage, so it's not surprising to see Trump pushing high tariffs as a threat to push for better deals as the date approaches, said Phillip Wool, head of portfolio management at Rayliant Global Advisors Ltd. 'There's also an element of political theater here, as Trump's narrative to American voters is that the US has been bullied on trade for so long, and there's clearly a desire to look 'tough' on trade,' Wool said. 'But there has to be a face-saving deal at some point so that it looks like the negotiation was truly a success as opposed to the mutually assured destruction of impasse and perpetually high tariffs.' Like some other market players, Wool is wary of an overly pessimistic knee-jerk response to each remark Trump makes. If there is a big selloff in a worst-case scenario, Wool sees it as a great buying opportunity for long-term, active investors. Strategists are split on how a bad scenario might play out for the yen. While some such as SBI Liquidity Market Co.'s Marito Ueda see the possibility of risk aversion sparking a strengthening of Japan's currency to the 138 range against the dollar, others see a weakening as more likely. A stalemate in trade talks would likely delay the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike, especially if it led to tariffs of up to 35% in the meantime, said Akira Moroga, chief market strategist at Aozora Bank. Movement would slow after the 145 mark, making a push past 147 difficult, he said. Still, the consensus is that a deal will be reached sooner or later, and that Japan will have to concede more ground to achieve it. 'If it's concluded I don't think it's going to be a win-win situation,' said Fujisaki. 'Maybe a capital-letter 'WIN' for US, but a small letter 'win' for Japan.' --With assistance from Momoka Yokoyama, Toshiro Hasegawa, Umesh Desai, Hidenori Yamanaka, Mari Kiyohara, Aya Wagatsuma and Akemi Terukina. (Updates with comments from premier and analyst) SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too How to Steal a House America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
The Independent
20-06-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Asian shares are mixed and oil gains as world waits to see if US will join Israel's war against Iran
Crude oil prices rose and Asian shares were trading mixed on Friday as investors awaited more clarity on whether or not the U.S. will join Israel's war against Iran. U.S. futures edged lower after Wall Street was closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. U.S. benchmark crude oil added 15 cents to $73.65 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard was up 19 cents at $76.89 per barrel. Oil prices have been gyrating as fears rise and ebb that the conflict between Israel and Iran could disrupt the global flow of crude. Iran is a major producer of oil and also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's crude passes. Investors remained wary after the White House said President Donald Trump could decide on whether to launch an attack on Israel within the next two weeks, but that he 'still believes diplomacy is an option,' said Anderson Alves, a trader at ActivTrades. Trump's tariffs agenda remains another major factor weighing on markets. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index edged 0.1% higher to 38,538.14 after Japan reported that its core inflation rate, excluding volatile food prices, rose to 3.7% in May, adding to challenges for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government and the central bank. 'Core Japanese inflation rose more than expected in May. Even so, the Bank of Japan is likely to prioritize the negative impact of U.S. tariffs, Min Joo Kang of ING Economics said in a commentary. 'For now, it's more concerned about the risk that US trade policies could break the virtuous circle of wage growth and inflation." Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 1.2% to 23,504.59, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.1%, reversing earlier losses, to 3,364.83. China's central bank kept its key 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged, as expected. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.3% to 8,500.40 while South Korea's Kospi gained 1.2% to 3,014.05. 'Risk sentiments were cautious as Iran-Israel tensions continued roiling,' Mizuho Bank Ltd. said in a commentary. On Thursday, the Bank of England kept its main interest rate at a two-year low of 4.25%, citing risks that the conflict between Israel and Iran will escalate. The U.S. dollar slipped to 145.28 Japanese yen from 145.46 yen. The euro rose to $1.1530 from $1.1498.
Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
New US visa rules will force foreign students to unlock social media profiles
Foreign students will be required to unlock their social media profiles to allow US diplomats to review their online activity before receiving educational and exchange visas, the state department has announced. Those who fail to do so will be suspected of hiding that activity from US officials. The new guidance, unveiled by the state department on Wednesday, directs US diplomats to conduct an online presence review to look for 'any indications of hostility toward the citizens, culture, government, institutions, or founding principles of the United States'. A cable separately obtained by Politico also instructs diplomats to flag any 'advocacy for, aid or support for foreign terrorists and other threats to US national security' and 'support for unlawful antisemitic harassment or violence'. The screening for 'antisemitic' activity matches similar guidance given at US Citizenship and Immigration Services under the Department of Homeland Security and has been criticised as an effort to crack down on opposition to the conduct of Israel's war in Gaza. The new state department checks are directed at students and other applicants for visas in the F, M and J categories, which refer to academic and vocational education, as well as cultural exchanges. 'It is an expectation from American citizens that their government will make every effort to make our country safer, and that is exactly what the Trump administration is doing every single day,' said a senior state department official, adding that Marco Rubio was 'helping to make America and its universities safer while bringing the state Department into the 21st century'. Related: US issues broad order to consulates to vet student visas over 'terrorist activity' The Trump administration paused the issuance of new education visas late last month as it mulled new social media vetting strategies. The US had also targeted Chinese students for special scrutiny amid a tense negotiation over tariffs and the supply of rare-earth metals and minerals to the United States. The state department directive allowed diplomatic posts to resume the scheduling of interviews for educational and exchange visas, but added that consular officers would conduct a 'comprehensive and thorough vetting' of all applicants applying for F, M and J visas. 'To facilitate this vetting, all applicants for F, M and J non-immigrant visas will be asked to adjust the privacy settings on all their social media profiles to 'public'', the official said. 'The enhanced social media vetting will ensure we are properly screening every single person attempting to visit our country.'
The Guardian
18-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Foreign students to be forced to unlock social media profiles in new US visa rules
Foreign students will be required to unlock their social media profiles to allow US diplomats to review their online activity before receiving educational and exchange visas, the state department has announced. Those who fail to do will be suspected of hiding that activity from US officials. The new guidance, unveiled by the state department on Wednesday, directs US diplomats to conduct an online presence review to look for 'any indications of hostility toward the citizens, culture, government, institutions, or founding principles of the United States'. A cable separately obtained by Politico also instructs diplomats to flag any 'advocacy for, aid or support for foreign terrorists and other threats to US national security' and 'support for unlawful antisemitic harassment or violence'. The screening for 'antisemitic' activity matches similar guidance given at US Citizenship and Immigration Services under the Department of Homeland Security and has been criticised as an effort to crack down on opposition to the conduct of Israel's war in Gaza. The new state department checks are directed at students and other applicants for visas in the F, M, and J categories, which refer to academic and vocational education, as well as cultural exchanges. 'It is an expectation from American citizens that their government will make every effort to make our country safer, and that is exactly what the Trump administration is doing every single day,' said a senior state department official, adding that Marco Rubio was 'helping to make America and its universities safer while bringing the state Department into the 21st century'. The Trump administration paused the issuance of new education visas late last month as it mulled new social media vetting strategies. The US had also targeted Chinese students for special scrutiny amid a tense negotiation over tariffs and the supply of rare-earth metals and minerals to the United States. The state department directive allowed diplomatic posts to resume the scheduling of interviews for educational and exchange visas, but added that consular officers will conduct a 'comprehensive and thorough vetting' of all applicants applying for F, M, and J visas. 'To facilitate this vetting, all applicants for F, M, and J nonimmigrant visas will be asked to adjust the privacy settings on all their social media profiles to 'public'', the official said. 'The enhanced social media vetting will ensure we are properly screening every single person attempting to visit our country.'
