Latest news with #USIndependenceDay
Qatar Tribune
3 days ago
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Disentangling the economic implications of ‘Big Beautiful Bill'
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) will stand in history as one of the most impactful and disruptive initiatives of the second Trump Presidency. Spanning close to 900 pages, it took shape after months ofgruesome negotiations and political maneuvering in Congress. It finally passed by narrow margins in the Senate and House, with 51-50 and 218-214 votes respectively, before President Trump signed it into law on July 4th, the US Independence Day. At its core, the bill enacts significant changes to the US tax code, extending and expanding tax cuts for high income individuals and corporations, while scaling back funding for safety-net programs, and re-defining spending priorities. The reforms sparked intense debates over its distributional impact and long-term sustainability. Given the magnitude and span of the OBBB, its macroeconomic implications are substantial in scale, and wide-ranging in scope. In this article, we analyse the main aspects of the OBBB along three key dimensions. First, the bill is set to have a meaningful expansionary impact on the economy over the next decade. According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), real GDP would increase on average by 0.5% over the 2025-2034 period, relative to a scenario without the implementation of the bill. This is a relevant impact on the economy, considering that average annual economic growth in the US has been 2.2% over the last two decades. The effects would be largest in the short term, with the bill boosting GDP by 0.9% in 2026. The initial push in economic activity would come to a large extent from an increase in aggregate demand, due to higher disposable income for more prosperous households, and items that incentivize investments. Beyond 2026, lower tax rates will improve the incentives to work, increasing labour participation and working hours and, therefore, promoting growth. Overall, the different growth mechanisms point to a positive and significant boost to economic activity. Second, the OBBB will substantially increase the US federal deficit and the path of debt in the coming years. The bill includes a battery of measures that will put pressure on public finances, including the extension of tax cuts, reduced corporate tax revenues, and expanded deductions. On the other hand, some spending cuts are included, mainly targeting entitlements and safety-net programs, but are smaller in relative terms. Over the period between 2025 to 2035, the bill would add an estimated USD 4.6 trillion to the deficits. As a result, federal debt is expected to reach close to 128% of GDP by 2034, its historical maximum. This far surpasses the 119% mark reached in 1946, when the country was absorbing the costs of the World War II economy and the immediate post-war recession. The sizable increase in the volume of US Treasury debt will certainly test the appetite of international markets, leading to a rise in interest rates. The increase in the supply of Treasury instruments will result in a fall in their price, and therefore an increase in yields. The CBO and Yale Budget Laboratory estimate the OBBB will increase interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes by an average 14 to 30 basis points (b.p.) over the period 2025-2034. This increase in debt costs is not negligible, but it is not exceptionally disorderly considering fluctuations in yields that are typically observed on any given year. Although the upward shift in the trend of debt is substantial and raises some long-term sustainability concerns which eventually need to be addressed, it is unlikely that these dynamics will generate major disruptions in financial markets over the next 10 years. — By QNB Economics
Straits Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
‘US needs China's fireworks': No alternative for some Chinese goods amid trade uncertainty
LIUYANG/YIWU - Fourth of July celebrations in the United States might have just passed, but Chinese businessman Marx Wu is already prepared for a dampening effect of tariffs on sales of his fireworks to American customers for the festivities in 2026. This is due to the additional 30 per cent tariffs that US President Donald Trump has been imposing on China – since the outbreak of a trade war between the two countries in April – in a bid to bring back manufacturing to the US. 'Customers will be more cautious because their costs have increased significantly,' Mr Wu told The Straits Times. His company, Magnus Fireworks, is based in Liuyang, Hunan province, which is dubbed China's 'fireworks' hometown' for its expertise in manufacturing pyrotechnics. The US government now collects a 35.7 per cent tax from American importers for fireworks from China. The bulk of these sales are meant for the annual US Independence Day celebrations synonymous with fireworks displays. Such orders are typically made a year in advance. But Mr Wu, who sells mainly to the US, remains optimistic about his business' viability in the longer-term, because the strengths of the Chinese industry in Liuyang cannot be easily replicated elsewhere, he said. When unpacking the impacts of Trump's aggressive tariff strategy on Chinese manufacturers, it is a mixed picture on the ground. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Almost half of planned 30,000 flats in Tengah to be completed by end-2025: Chee Hong Tat Asia Death toll climbs as Thai-Cambodia clashes continue despite calls for ceasefire Multimedia Lights dimmed at South-east Asia's scam hub but 'pig butchering' continues Singapore Black belt in taekwondo, Grade 8 in piano: S'pore teen excels despite condition that limits movements Asia Where's Jho Low? Looking for 1MDB fugitive in Shanghai's luxury estate Asia Thousands rally in downtown Kuala Lumpur calling for the resignation of PM Anwar Life SG60 F&B icons: Honouring 14 heritage brands that have never lost their charm Business Can STI continue its defiant climb in second half of 2025? Mr Marx Wu with some of his company's firework products for US Independence Day celebrations at his office in Liuyang, Hunan province. ST PHOTO: LIM MIN ZHANG On the one hand, Mr Trump's move to impose tariffs across the board on Chinese goods in April has led to factory closures and worker lay-offs in certain sectors such as the garment industry, and accelerated moves to diversify away from the US market for other exporters. On the other hand, there are other products which simply have few to no alternatives to 'made in China', because the country's manufacturers are overwhelmingly competitive, say experts. When Mr Trump proclaimed 'Liberation Day' on April 2 with 'reciprocal tariffs' on the US' trading partners, Beijing and Washington engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff war. At one point, American importers had to pay a 145 per cent tax on Chinese goods. But bilateral trade talks since May 12 have de-escalated the situation. US and Chinese officials are set to meet in Stockholm next week (from July 27) to discuss a possible extension of a 90-day truce. The fireworks industry presents a case study showing how, despite trade tensions and strategic competition, the US and China remain economically intertwined. While US businesses now adopt a cautious approach in placing orders, the deals have continued to flow as Chinese manufacturers remain competitive. Liuyang has over decades accumulated the technical know-how, the quality of its raw materials, proper regulatory oversight and strict transportation requirements, Mr Wu said. Factories dot the surrounding mountainous terrain of the city, about an hour's drive from the inland Hunan capital of Changsha. Production has to stop for about a month for safety reasons every summer because of the heat. 'America needs fireworks – this will not change,' said Mr Wu. 'At the very most, they will buy fewer, but they will not stop buying completely. In addition, we have good relations with our customers who trust in our products, and they also believe that this (tariffs issue) is temporary.' Screenshot from a video Mr Wu took of a Fourth of July fireworks celebration in Ohio earlier in July. His company's products were used. PHOTO: MARX WU According to the American Pyrotechnic Association, 90 per cent of professional display fireworks used in the US are imported from China. Reports say that US companies import close to US$400 million worth of consumer fireworks from China each year. More than 200 other imported products depend on China for more than 90 per cent of their supply, including baby carriages, vacuum flasks, umbrellas and artificial plants. Mr Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore who specialises in international trade, said that despite all the conflicts and tension, trade between the US and China has remained remarkably resilient. Although China's exports to the US declined in the first half of the year, China remains among the US' largest trade partners and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future, he said. China's exports to the US declined by 10.7 per cent in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, a drop of US$25.7 billion. 'Trump's tariffs have undoubtedly dented China's cost competitiveness but the resilience of China's exports reflect the simple fact that China is the world's preeminent manufacturer and is overwhelmingly competitive in a host of consumer products and industrial inputs. It's simply not possible to cut China entirely out of US consumer markets or supply chains,' Mr Olson said. Mr Steve Houser, president of Missouri-based Red Rhino Fireworks who was on a work trip to China, said he has already placed his orders for 2026, but added that he – like other major importers – is doing so much more cautiously. 'I'm being very particular on what I order. I'm ordering only what I really, really need. I'm not really taking chances on other things because of the tariff rates; the goods are costing me a lot more,' he told ST. He said that the National Fireworks Association in the US was recently in Washington DC to make the case that fireworks should be exempt from the across-the-board tariffs of 30 per cent, as there are no viable alternative suppliers from other countries. Apart from the fireworks business, the US-China trade war has resulted in uncertainty for many exporters, such as those in Yiwu, of Zhejiang province, which is home to the world's largest wholesale market for small commodities. The sprawling Yiwu International Trade City hosts more than 70,000 shops selling products from cosmetics to stationery, backpacks and Christmas decorations. Most shops that stocked Halloween and Christmas decorations at the trade city declined to speak with ST in early July, when it is usually the peak sales season for these products. A few shop owners would only say that business is slower in 2025, while others said they were not authorised to speak with the media. Rows of dozens of shops at Yiwu International Trade City in Zhejiang province selling Christmas decorations were largely empty when ST visited in early July. ST PHOTO: LIM MIN ZHANG Ms Guo Xiabing, an entrepreneur in Zhejiang who runs a factory making Christmas trees in Yiwu, said that typically, US customers are more able to afford higher-priced products, such as those with more fanciful ornaments. She shared about her factory's race to ship orders in the 90-day trade truce between the US and China in a documentary aired in June. 'Customers also do not want to give up on the orders. But that also means that we are left hanging, not knowing when we can resume production and shipping. This type of uncertainty causes a lot of anxiety. Should we let go of the workers? How would we find jobs for them?' she said. Yet others have taken a longer-term view, and have long made efforts to diversify away from the US market. Chief executive of Aokai Sporting Goods in Yiwu, Mr Wu Xiaoming, who has been in the industry for 30 years, counts the South American and African markets as his major customers - at about 50 per cent and 20 per cent respectively - with the US market accounting for only about 5 per cent. Chief executive of Aokai Sporting Goods in Yiwu, Mr Wu Xiaoming, inspecting a football bound for Nicaragua at his factory in Yiwu city, Zhejiang province. ST PHOTO: LIM MIN ZHANG He recalled that there was one American customer who called him to resume an order on May 13, shortly after news of successful US-China trade talks in Geneva was announced, as well as to place a new order for 90,000 footballs. His orders from the US are mainly for supermarkets. 'For the US market, the volume is still there. But it is US consumers who have to bear the cost (of the tariffs). If you force us to lower our costs, it means the quality of the product suffers, so ultimately it's still the consumers who pay the bill,' Mr Wu said. He believes that diversification is necessary for his company's viability, not only because of trade frictions, but also due to other sources of instability. He cited examples such as a Croatian client that halted a shipment because of the Kosovo War in 1998, and how demand from Russia has plummeted because of the Ukraine war. 'There has not been a period where the entire world was completely at peace... In Yiwu, we engage in global trade. If the West doesn't shine, the East will.'
The Sun
20-07-2025
- Politics
- The Sun
Orban's illiberal model in Hungary draws Trump comparisons
BUDAPEST: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has positioned himself as a pioneer of far-right governance, earning comparisons to former US President Donald Trump. With a self-proclaimed 'illiberal state' model, Orban's policies have reshaped Hungary's political landscape, drawing both admiration and criticism. At a recent US Independence Day celebration in Budapest, American charge d'affaires Robert Palladino noted the shift in diplomatic tone, stating, 'No more public scoldings. No more moralising from podiums.' Orban, who calls Trump 'a great friend,' hopes for a US presidential visit to solidify their ideological alliance. Over his 15-year rule, Orban has been accused of suppressing judicial independence, academia, media, and civil society while restricting minority rights. Former US President Joe Biden once accused him of 'looking for dictatorship.' Zsolt Enyedi, a democracy researcher at Central European University, described Hungary as 'an open-air museum' where illiberal ideas have been institutionalised. Both Orban and Trump have targeted minorities, including the LGBTQ community, leveraging public divisions for political gain. US author Rod Dreher, a Budapest resident, defends Orban's policies, arguing that the 'Hungarian model' counters left-wing ideologies. He praised Trump's hardline stance, stating, 'When institutions that should be neutral are so far to the left, it takes a strongman like Trump just to try to bring them back to the centre.' Trump's tactics—such as threatening university funding and sidelining critical media—mirror Orban's strategies. Enyedi noted, 'Both make it clear that they are acting out of revenge.' Despite similarities, dissenting voices remain stronger in the US than in Hungary. While Orban awaits a White House invitation, Palladino hinted at a potential Trump visit to Budapest, calling it 'a reflection of real alignment between two sovereign nations that believe in tradition, strength, and identity.' - AFP
Irish Independent
18-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Irish Independent
‘Pretty Little Baby' singer Connie Francis dies aged 87
The news of her death was confirmed yesterday by her close friend Ron Roberts, who is also the president of her record label, Concetta Records. 'It is with a heavy heart and extreme sadness that I inform you of the passing of my dear friend Connie Francis last night,' Roberts wrote in a statement posted on Facebook. 'I know that Connie would approve that her fans are among the first to learn of this sad news. More details will follow later.' Francis had been forced to cancel a scheduled US Independence Day appearance with radio host Cousin Brucie earlier this month after being taken to hospital in severe discomfort. On July 2, she wrote in a social media update: 'Hello everyone – as many of you may now have learned through Cousin Brucie's Facebook page, I am back in hospital where I have been undergoing tests and checks to determine the cause(s) of the extreme pain I have been experiencing. 'I had hoped to take part in Brucie's show for Independence Day, having had to cancel a previous slot a few weeks ago when receiving treatment on my hip. Sadly, I had to let him know that I again had to withdraw. My thanks for your many get well soon messages. I will endeavour to keep you updated. Love, Connie.' Francis, who was born Concetta Franconero in Newark, New Jersey, in December 1937, rose to fame in the 1950s and 1960s, becoming one of the most successful female recording artists of her era. While many of her best-known songs were recorded decades ago, she recently experienced a surprising resurgence in popularity thanks to social media. Her track Pretty Little Baby, which originally was not released as a single, has become a viral favourite on TikTok and Instagram Reels in 2024, featured in videos by celebrities including Kylie Jenner and Kim Kardashian. According to Billboard, US weekly streams of the song jumped from 17,000 in April to 2.4 million by May. Speaking about the track's renewed popularity in May, Francis admitted she 'didn't even remember the song'. She told People: 'I had to listen to it to remember. To think that a song I recorded 63 years ago is touching the hearts of millions of people is truly awesome. It is an amazing feeling.'
Courier-Mail
13-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Courier-Mail
Royal Wimbledon moment that changed everything
Don't miss out on the headlines from Royals. Followed categories will be added to My News. Ahhh, Wimbledon. The quintessence of British summer - strawberries and Pimms and Little Britain's David Walliams inexplicably being invited to the Royal box. But it was right there in the SW19 that a particularly disastrous chapter in the short and definitely not sweet story of Meghan, The Duchess of Sussex, jobbing HRH and trooper paid to rep the crown, played out. Only six months after it happened, Meghan's royal career and that of her husband Prince Harry, The Duke of Sussex - would come a cropper. It was, ironically, US Independence Day, July 4 in 2019 and if ever there was someone who needed a day out at that time, it was new mother Meghan. Barely a year after the Sussexes' wedding the dizzying high of public adoration had plunged to a certain sour tenor with the fault lines between them and William and Kate, then the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, coming into view. So, on the day, Meghan arrived at the tournament with her university friends Genevieve Hillis and Lindsay Roth to watch Serena Williams play. It should have just been a nice bit of sunshine with maybe a sneaky G&T squeezed in - instead it would be a PR debacle exhaustively dissected in the UK press. What played out was this. Arriving at court one (not centre court where the royal box is) for a reason that has never been explained, the duchess, her friends and a few staffers were not just given good spots but watched the match from the middle of about 30 empty seats. There were a whole heap of empty seats around Megan. Picture: James Veysey/Shutterstock It was a conspicuous difference to when Kate, The Princess of Wales, had attended Wimbledon only a couple of days beforehand, happily sitting in the back row of court 14 surrounded by tennis fans all hopefully wearing enough Rexona to handle the heat. The contrast between the two royal WAGS could not have come at a worse time. Then, things got more controversial during the match when Meghan's security were seen to approach people nearby who raised their phones in her vicinity, 'ordering them,' according to the Telegraph, to not take photos as she was there in a 'private capacity'. Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge, Meghan, Duchess of Sussex and Pippa Middleton attend Wimbledon 2019. Picture:The catch - Buckingham Palace itself had reportedly earlier sent out an operational note confirming the Duchess of Susex was going and how much privacy, the press would later argue, could Meghan expect, when she had chosen to sit in a stadium with 12,000 other spectators and live BBC cameras? It all looked heavy-handed, especially when some of the people spoken to by royal bodyguards then started popping up in the papers. Grandfather Hasan Hasanov was 'warned off' by the duchess' protection officers, The Sun reported at the time, only for it to turn out Hasanove had 'no idea' the duchess was theremand had actually been taking a selfie. Kate and Meghan pictured together at the 2019 Wimbledon Championships. Picture: Ben Curtis / POOL / AFP Also in the crowd was Sally Jones, a former sports presenter for the BBC, who was left 'utterly confused,' per The Daily Mail. 'I felt this tap on my shoulder and was asked not to take pictures of the Duchess – but I had no idea she was there until then,' Jones has said. 'There were around 200 photographers snapping away at her but security were sent to warn an old biddy like me.' Let's be clear. As far as royal disasters go, we aren't exactly talking about Tampongate here or Squidgygate or Nazi uniform-gate or naked billiards in Las Vegas-gate or any time a certain young HRH managed to make a bit of a tit of themselves exiting a nightclub. But the thing about the Wimbledon mess was that it added fuel to the already crackling fire around the Sussexes and for months the press had reported the Duchess of Sussex was 'demanding'. We now know that behind the scenes, in 2019, Meghan was privately going through the most extreme mental suffering, later telling Oprah Winfrey that royal life had left her suicidal and that she 'didn't want to be alive anymore'. Things were different back then. Picture: Ben Curtis / POOL / AFP During one royal engagement earlier in January 2019, the duchess told Winfrey, 'every time that those lights went down in that Royal Box, I was just weeping, and he was gripping my hand.' At one stage the Duchess of Sussex said she had only ' left the house twice in four months' and 'I could not [have felt] lonelier'. She told Winfrey of royal life, 'It's nothing like what it looks like.' But no one knew any of this back in 2019, only that the public love-in with the Sussexes had gone off the rails as they were buffeted by a series of public relations messes. There had been months of stories about things being not so very merry between Meghan and Kate; a media circus after Meghan flew to New York to be feted by friends with an A-list baby shower; and the ongoing drama of her estrangement with her father Thomas Markle. Meghan's move sparked controversy. Picture: Ben STANSALL / AFP In April the Sussexes moved away from Kensington Palace to Frogmore Cottage, with a stream of stories about the $4 million plus of taxpayer money used to renovate their new home. (Side note- years before, William and Kate spent $9 million of public cash to do up their apartment at Kensington Palace.) In May came the clumsy handling of son Archie (now Prince Archie's) birth, the Palace announcing that the duchess had gone into labour - only for it turn out that the bub had actually already been born hours earlier. In June, Harry and Meghan formally split from the charity foundation he had set up with brother Prince William a decade earlier. Less than two weeks after that came Wimbledon and then a day after that, the Palace would announce that, contrary to usual royal form, the Sussexes would not reveal their son's godparents. In August they would take four private jet flights in ten days despite Harry publicly banging the drum about the climate crisis. Kate stunned at Wimbledon back in 2019. Picture: Ella Pellegrini Kate pictured at Wimbledon in July 2025. Picture: AP Photo/Kin Cheung However, the benefit of hindsight and six hours of the Sussexes' talking to camera and the 400 pages of Harry's book, is that we now know that actually in 2019, they were having a horrible time of it. They were struggling to strike some sort of bargain between the competing forces of their mental health, the public demands of royalty, living in the captivity of the monarchy and struggling with a deeply hierarchical Firm that believed in only the stiffest of upper lips at all times. It is now clear, the centre could not hold. The crescendo came months later when 'Megxit' would become a noun and a verb. If you really want some heavy-handed symbolism, six years later, on July 4 2025, the Duchess of Sussex proudly marked what is American Independence Day. Daniela Elser is writer, editor and commentator with more than 15 years' experience working with a number of Australia's leading media titles Originally published as Meghan's Royal Wimbledon moment that changed everything
