Latest news with #USPersonalConsumptionExpenditures
Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Dollar rebounds near 97 mark from three and half year low; US PCE data in focus
The dollar index is attempting recovery around 97 mark after having breached below the level for the first time in almost three and half years. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, hit a low of 96.61 this week amid consistent decline following ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Investors, however continue to access media reports that claim US President Donald Trump is considering nominating the next Federal Reserve Chair by September or October. Moreover, Feds future outlook will also be gauged amid data that showed final printing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2025 confirmed that the economy lost traction, contracting more than expected and by a larger margin than the previous figure. All eyes will now turn to Friday's release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index data for May, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price today climbs to $3,336 as Trump blasts Powell—here's the forecast and what gold investors should expect next
Gold prices fell on Thursday as risk appetite grows, US stocks rally to record highs, and President Trump's battle with Fed Chair Jerome Powell casts doubt over rate cut timing. Gold (XAU/USD) slipped from recent highs and was trading near $3,330 in the US session, despite ongoing weakness in the US Dollar. The retreat in gold comes as investors increasingly shift toward risk assets like equities, pushing major US indices to fresh record levels. At the same time, tensions are heating up between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, further complicating the path forward for monetary policy. Markets are now keenly watching Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — which could provide crucial clues on when a rate cut might happen. What is the gold price today? As of this morning: Spot gold is trading at $3,336.02 per ounce , up 0.1% on the day. U.S. gold futures (COMEX) are hovering around $3,349.30 per ounce , showing mild intraday gains. While the gains are modest, gold remains up more than 42% over the past month—one of the metal's best runs in recent memory. Also Read: US stock market today: Dow jumps 200 points, S&P nears record, Nasdaq climbs as Trump eyes Fed shake-up and Nvidia leads top movers Live Events Why is gold price under pressure despite a weaker dollar? Gold is often seen as a safe haven when the US Dollar weakens, but that wasn't the case on Thursday. While the USD continued to decline, gold struggled to maintain gains as risk-on sentiment dominated market flows. The XAU/USD pair swung between its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, showing signs of consolidation and investor indecision. Traders appear to be chasing momentum in equities rather than seeking safety in gold. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all notched fresh record highs this week, diverting attention away from the precious metal. How is the Trump-Powell feud affecting gold and the Fed's next move? The debate around interest rate cuts intensified this week after President Trump openly criticized Fed Chair Powell during the NATO summit. Trump didn't mince words, saying, 'He is going out, fortunately. I think he is terrible.' His comments reflect growing political pressure on the Fed to act swiftly on rate cuts. Powell, however, struck a cautious tone during his two-day semiannual testimony to Congress, maintaining that interest rates will remain at 4.25%–4.50% for now. He noted that while inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target, other risks — like tariffs and global uncertainties — must be carefully monitored before making any moves. This tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary authorities has left gold in a holding pattern. Traders are reluctant to take bold positions in gold until there's more clarity on the Fed's direction. Is economic data pointing to trouble ahead for the US economy? Recent reports hint that the US economy might be hitting some bumps. On Tuesday, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index showed signs of softening. Then on Wednesday, New Home Sales numbers came in below expectations, suggesting a cooling housing market. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 68% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, with a 21.3% chance of a larger 50 basis-point cut. These expectations are keeping gold investors on edge. Without a strong catalyst, gold may struggle to retest its April high of $3,500. What key data could shake gold next? All eyes are now on two big data drops: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due Friday. Revised U.S. GDP data , which could shape the Fed's path forward. Any sign that inflation is cooling could fast-track rate cuts—sending gold higher. But if inflation surprises to the upside, the Fed may stay cautious, capping gold's rally. What role is geopolitics playing in gold's recent decline? While macroeconomic trends are driving most of the action, geopolitical tensions have temporarily eased. The Israel-Iran ceasefire has held for three straight days, helping to reduce global fears and further cooling demand for safe-haven assets like gold. But experts warn that the calm may be short-lived. Any new flare-up could quickly push gold prices higher again. For now, though, the absence of immediate conflict is leaving gold exposed to economic and policy developments. Gold price predictions: Where is gold headed next? Here's what analysts and forecasting models are saying: Source Prediction Timeline Reuters Poll Avg $3,065 2025 Goldman Sachs Up to $3,300 End-2025 J.P. Morgan $3,675 → $4,000 Q4 2025 → Q2 2026 UBS / Bank of America $3,500+ Medium-term CoinCodex Avg $3,570 , Peak $4,148 Dec 2025 Citigroup (bearish) Drop to $2,500–2,700 End-2026 AI/Crowd Forecasts Avg $3,070 , AI upper range $3,026 Dec 2025 While most forecasts remain bullish, especially from institutions like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, some caution is creeping in. If inflation data comes in stronger and rate cuts are delayed, gold could face a near-term pullback toward $2,700. What are the key technical levels gold traders are watching? From a chart perspective, XAU/USD is in a tight range, stuck between the 50-day SMA at $3,325 and the 20-day SMA at $3,356. These moving averages are acting as near-term support and resistance zones. Immediate resistance lies at $3,356, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,371. Support levels include the 38.2% Fib at $3,292 and the 50% Fib at $3,228. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 50, signaling a neutral market. A break above $3,371 could see gold test the $3,400–$3,450 zone. On the flip side, a drop below $3,325 could expose gold to deeper losses, especially if Friday's PCE data comes in strong. What could change the direction of gold prices next? All eyes are now on Friday's PCE inflation data, which is likely to be the biggest driver for gold in the short term. A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a faster Fed rate cut, potentially boosting demand for gold. Until then, gold may continue to trade sideways as markets juggle conflicting signals: a weakening dollar, stock market euphoria, political tension, and economic uncertainty. FAQs: Q1: Why is gold price falling despite a weak dollar? Gold is dropping as investors prefer riskier assets like US stocks over safe-haven gold. Q2: How does Trump vs Powell tension affect gold prices? Trump's push for rate cuts vs Powell's caution adds uncertainty, keeping gold range-bound.
Observer
26-05-2025
- Business
- Observer
Market optimism grows as Trump extends EU tariff deadline
Sock futures moved higher this morning following US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the deadline for proposed EU tariffs. The move has fueled optimism among investors that recent trade tensions may be easing. Investor sentiment has strengthened notably over the past month, driven by growing signs of Trump's openness to negotiation. Recent trade truces have helped markets look beyond the immediate noise of tariff disputes, with many now believing that the worst of the disruption could be behind us. 'Markets are effectively looking past the trade war noise, and the prevailing view is that the worst of the tariff turmoil may now be behind us,' said Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro. 'Going forward, much will depend on how the negotiations develop beyond the current truces.' While the agreements with China and the EU are still provisional, they represent a step in the right direction. The willingness of the U.S. administration to engage in dialogue is a positive sign. However, these remain temporary pauses rather than permanent resolutions. Without concrete structural changes to tariff policy, the potential for further escalation remains. Looking ahead, key economic data – including Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures will be closely watched. These indicators will play a crucial role in determining whether market optimism can be sustained in the coming weeks. Despite the improved sentiment, last week's unexpected threat of new tariffs on Apple was a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of trade policy under the Trump administration – a dynamic that has characterized his presidency since day one. 'Despite the ongoing uncertainty, any progress in trade negotiations will continue to support risk assets,' added Gilbert. 'We've seen some rotation out of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks recently, but their earnings results reaffirm why these names remain dominant within investor portfolios at eToro. When prices pull back, investors are still quick to buy the dip.' As global markets continue to monitor developments in trade policy, future momentum will hinge on the outcome of negotiations and the direction of key economic indicators.
Business Insider
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Gold prices dip as US dollar strengthens and tariff tensions ease
Gold prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US dollar and signs of easing trade tensions, as investors await key US economic data that could shape the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,302.58/oz by 4:30am GMT, while US gold futures declined 0.7% to $3,310.70/oz. Gold prices fell due to a stronger US dollar and signs of easing trade tensions Spot gold fell to $3,302.58/oz, while US gold futures declined to $3,310.70/oz The US dollar index gained 0.1%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies The US dollar index gained 0.1% against a basket of major currencies, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and applying downward pressure on bullion. 'There was a minor recovery in broad dollar strength, which led to a little bit of retracement in gold,' said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery. The decline follows a recent rally that saw gold prices reach an all-time high of $3,500.05/ounce on April 22, driven by global economic uncertainties and market volatility. The pullback in gold comes after US President Donald Trump signed a pair of executive orders aimed at easing the impact of auto tariffs. Meanwhile, the US trade team announced its first agreement with a foreign partner since the new tariff wave began. 'Even though the Trump administration is watering down tariffs, they are still high, and the confidence in US assets has been shaken — arguably permanently,' said Kyle Rodda, market analyst at Investors now await the release of key data points, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index later today and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. 'The PCE data is expected to show further moderation in prices and keep the door open for further Fed cuts,' Rodda added. 'If we get an upside surprise, then those odds may diminish and that could weigh on gold prices.' Markets currently anticipate a total of 95 basis points in Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Other Precious Metals Silver fell 0.7% to $32.72/oz Platinum dropped 0.6% to $971.75/oz Palladium slipped 0.2% to $932.40/oz
New Straits Times
28-04-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Gold sinks over 1pct as easing US-China tensions curb safe-haven demand
KUALA LUMPUR: Gold prices dropped more than 1 per cent on Monday as easing US-China trade tensions boosted investors' risk appetite and dented demand for safe-haven assets such as bullion, while a stronger dollar also piled on the pressure. Spot gold was down 1.4 per cent at US$3,272.89 an ounce, as of 0220 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of US$3,500.05 on April 22. US gold futures eased 0.4 per cent to US$3,283.70. The US dollar rose 0.3 per cent against a basket of currencies, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. "It's probably fair to say that financial markets and risk-assets in particular are feeling slightly better about the tariff picture now compared to the frantic first week in April," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. "Comments last week from the White House have fuelled optimism that a US-China trade deal may eventuate, which has caused safe haven demand for assets such as gold to subside." US President Donald Trump has said talks on tariffs were taking place with China. The Trump administration signalled openness last week to de-escalating a trade war between the world's two largest economies that has raised fears of recession. On Friday, China exempted some US imports from its steep tariffs, though China quickly knocked down Trump's assertion that negotiations were underway. Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainties, thrives in a low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, many participants in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings said Trump's administration was still conflicted in its demands from trading partners hit with his sweeping tariffs. Key data releases this week include the job openings report on Tuesday, US Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These reports may provide more insight into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Among other metals, spot silver dropped 1.2 per cent to US$32.70 an ounce, platinum eased 0.6 per cent at US$965.70 and palladium lost 1 per cent to US$939.00.
