Latest news with #USdeficits
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty and Rising US Deficits
The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell by -0.13%. The dollar on Tuesday added to Monday's losses and posted a 3-1/3 year low. The dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainties over US trade policies, with many nations trying to negotiate trade deals with the US before President Trump's July 9 deadline. Also, rising deficits are bearish for the dollar as the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Republicans' reconciliation bill making its way through Congress would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US budget deficits over the next ten years. The dollar recovered most of its losses on Tuesday's stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing and JOLTS job openings reports. Barchart- Commodity Market Roundup- June's Top Performers and Underperformers Dollar Weakens and Gold Soars on Trade Uncertainty Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty and Rising US Deficits Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. The US June ISM manufacturing index rose +0.5 to 49.0, stronger than expectations of 48.8. Also, the June ISM prices paid sub-index rose +0.3 to 69.7, stronger than expectations of 69.5. US May JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose +374,000 to a 6-month high of 7.769 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 7.300 million. Fed Chair Powell said he expects the impacts of tariffs to show up in inflation data over the coming months, but the impact could be "higher or lower, or later or sooner than we expected." The markets are discounting a 21% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Tuesday fell by -0.01%. The euro fell from a 3-3/4 year high on Tuesday and posted modest losses. The euro came under pressure due to comments from ECB Governing Council member Kazaks, who said significant gains for the euro could warrant another ECB rate cut. Also, Tuesday's inflation news was dovish on balance and was bearish for the euro. The euro initially moved higher on Tuesday due to the dollar's broad weakness. The euro also garnered support from Tuesday's economic news, which showed an upward revision to the Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI and stronger-than-expected German labor market data. In addition, hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Muller were positive for the euro when he said he was not in favor of additional ECB interest rate cuts. The Eurozone June CPI edged up to +2.0% y/y from +1.9% y/y in May, right on expectations. The June core CPI was unchanged from May at +2.3% y/y, right on expectations. The ECB May 1-year CPI inflation expectations unexpectedly eased to +2.8% from +3.1% in Apr, versus expectations of no change at +3.1%. The May 3-year CPI expectations unexpectedly eased to +2.4% from +2.5% in Apr, versus expectations of no change at +2.5%. The Eurozone Jun manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 49.5 from the previously reported 49.4. The German June unemployment change rose by +11,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of +15,000. The June unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 6.4%. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said, "If the euro were to significantly appreciate further, it could weigh down on inflation and exports, which could tilt the balance toward another ECB interest rate cut." ECB Governing Council member Muller said, "For the moment it's not obvious to me that the ECB needs to go into expansionary territory, so it's quite reasonable for now to keep interest rates where they are." Swaps are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Tuesday fell by -0.22%. The yen climbed to a 3-1/2 week high against the dollar on Tuesday. Strength in Tuesday's Japanese economic news supported the yen after the June consumer confidence index rose more than expected to a 4-month high and the Tankan Q2 large manufacturing business conditions survey unexpectedly increased. The yen gave up over half of its gains after T-note yields moved higher on better-than-expected US economic news. The Japan June consumer confidence index rose +1.7 to a 4-month high of 34.5, stronger than expectations of 33.5. The Japan Tankan Q2 large manufacturing business conditions survey unexpectedly rose by +1 from Q1 to 13, stronger than expectations of a decline to 10. August gold (GCQ25) Tuesday closed up +42.10 (+1.27%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up by +0.225 (+0.62%). Precious metals on Tuesday settled higher. Tuesday's selloff in the dollar index to a 3-1/3 year low propelled metals prices higher. Gold also has support as a store of value due to concerns that President Trump's reconciliation bill will increase the US budget deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, according to the CBO. In addition, trade uncertainty has boosted demand for safe-haven assets, including precious metals, as nations scramble to negotiate trade deals with the US before President Trump's July 9 deadline. Precious metals fell back from their best levels on Tuesday, following stronger-than-expected US economic news, including the June ISM manufacturing and May JOLTS job openings reports, which are hawkish factors for Fed policy. Silver prices found support on Tuesday's global economic news that showed stronger than expected US and Eurozone manufacturing activity, a positive factor for industrial metals demand. Fund buying of silver continues to support prices after silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-3/4 year high Monday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Weakens and Gold Soars on Trade Uncertainty
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.32%. The dollar today added to Monday's losses and posted a 3-1/3 year low. The dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainties over US trade policies, with many nations trying to negotiate trade deals with the US before President Trump's July 9 deadline. Also, rising deficits are bearish for the dollar as the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Republicans' reconciliation bill making its way through Congress would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US budget deficits over the next ten years. The dollar recovered most of its losses on today's stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing and JOLTS job openings reports. Cocoa Prices Are Stuck Against Key Resistance Levels. Is a Breakout Possible Here? Dollar Tumbles into Quarter End Dollar Weakens and Gold Soars on Trade Uncertainty Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! The US June ISM manufacturing index rose +0.5 to 49.0, stronger than expectations of 48.8. Also, the June ISM prices paid sub-index rose +0.3 to 69.7, stronger than expectations of 69.5. US May JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose +374,000 to a 6-month high of 7.769 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 7.300 million. Fed Chair Powell said he expects the impacts of tariffs to show up in inflation data over the coming months, but the impact could be 'higher or lower, or later or sooner than we expected.' The markets are discounting a 21% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.10% and posted a new 3-3/4 year high. The euro has moved higher for nine consecutive sessions as the dollar's broad weakness benefits the euro. The euro also garnered support from today's economic news that showed an upward revision to the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI and stronger-than-expected German labor market news. The euro fell back from its best levels on comments from ECB Governing Council member Kazaks, who said significant gains for the euro could warrant another ECB rate cut. Also, today's inflation news was dovish on balance and was bearish for the euro. The Eurozone June CPI edged up to +2.0% y/y from +1.9% y/y in May, right on expectations. The June core CPI was unchanged from May at +2.3% y/y, right on expectations. The ECB May 1-year CPI inflation expectations unexpectedly eased to +2.8% from +3.1% in Apr versus expectations of no change at +3.1%. The May 3-year CPI expectations unexpectedly eased to +2.4% from +2.5% in Apr versus expectations of no change at +2.5%. The Eurozone Jun manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 49.5 from the previously reported 49.4. The German June unemployment change rose +11,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of +15,000. The June unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 6.4%. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said, 'If the euro were to significantly appreciate further, it could weigh down on inflation and exports, which could tilt the balance toward another ECB interest rate cut.' Swaps are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.51%. The yen climbed to a 3-1/2 week high against the dollar today. Strength in Japanese economic news is supporting the yen after the June consumer confidence index rose more than expected to a 4-month high and the Tankan Q2 large manufacturing business conditions survey unexpectedly increased. The yen gave up some of its gains after T-note yields moved higher on better-than-expected US economic news. The Japan June consumer confidence index rose +1.7 to a 4-month high of 34.5, stronger than expectations of 33.5. The Japan Tankan Q2 large manufacturing business conditions survey unexpectedly rose by +1 from Q1 to 13, stronger than expectations of a decline to 10. August gold (GCQ25) today is up +54.10 (+1.64%), and September silver (SIU25) is up by +0.408 (+1.13%). Precious metals today are sharply higher. Today's selloff in the dollar index to a 3-1/3 year low is propelling metals prices higher. Gold also has support as a store of value due to concerns that President Trump's reconciliation bill will increase the US budget deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, according to the CBO. In addition, trade uncertainty has boosted demand for safe-haven assets, including precious metals, as nations scramble to negotiate trade deals with the US before President Trump's July 9 deadline. Silver prices found support on today's global economic news that showed stronger than expected US and Eurozone manufacturing activity, a positive factor for industrial metals demand. Fund buying of silver continues to support prices after silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-3/4 year high Monday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
29-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Senate tax bill would add $3.3 trillion to US deficits, CBO says
(Bloomberg) — The Senate version of President Donald Trump's tax and spending measure would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over a decade, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Philadelphia Transit System Votes to Cut Service by 45%, Hike Fares Squeezed by Crowds, the Roads of Central Park Are Being Reimagined Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer Mapping the Architectural History of New York's Chinatown Sao Paulo Pushes Out Favela Residents, Drug Users to Revive Its City Center The CBO score for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill reflects a $4.5 trillion decrease in revenues and a $1.2 trillion decrease in spending through 2034, relative to a current law baseline. The Senate bill, by Republican request, was also scored as costing $507.6 billion over a decade relative to a current policy baseline. The party's lawmakers have sought to use the accounting maneuver to permanently extend President Donald Trump's 2017 income-tax cuts, and score them as costing nothing. The bill includes $4.5 trillion worth of tax cuts, according to a Saturday estimate from the Joint Committee on Taxation. Use of the current policy baseline is unprecedented for the reconciliation process the Republicans are using to approve the massive legislation with a simple majority. The cost of a bill is normally measured according to what effect it would have on the federal budget under current law. But the Republicans want to revise the process by assuming that current policies remain in place indefinitely. The bill's cost has been a big problem for fiscal conservatives. It has faced several obstacles in the Senate as lawmakers have demanded conflicting changes. Then a number of spending cuts included in the package were changed as they did not comply with Senate rules for the reconciliation process. Democrats and some economists have argued use of the current policy baseline allows GOP lawmakers to circumvent rules that would otherwise limit the bill's fiscal effects. That, they say, imperils the nation's fiscal trajectory. The cost of the Senate bill is higher than the CBO's $2.8 trillion projected cost of the version passed by the House last month, which also accounts for economic effects and higher interest rates spurred by larger debt loads. The legislation encompasses much of Trump's economic agenda. In addition to the 2017 tax break extension, it would make make various spending cuts to safety net programs, including Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food stamps. The Senate version made three business tax breaks permanent, limits deductions on new tax breaks on workers' tips and overtime and includes changes to some of the Medicaid provisions. House and Senate Republicans have also reached a deal to alter the cap on federal deductions for state and local taxes. That limit will remain at the $40,000 limit set in the House bill, but it will be limited to a five-year period, rather than 10 years. —With assistance from Erik Wasson. America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push Apple Test-Drives Big-Screen Movie Strategy With F1 Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Bloomberg
29-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Senate Tax Bill Would Add $3.3 Trillion to US Deficits, CBO Says
The Senate version of President Donald Trump's tax and spending measure would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over a decade, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO score for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill reflects a $4.5 trillion decrease in revenues and a $1.2 trillion decrease in spending through 2034, relative to a current law baseline.
