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New Straits Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Global trade grows by US$300bil in 1H25 with uncertain outlook
GENEVA: Global trade grew by an estimated US$300 billion in the first half (H1) of 2025, despite showing a slower growth pace, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released Tuesday, reported Xinhua. In its latest Global Trade Update report, the UNCTAD warned that the global trade outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and signs of weakening global growth in the second half of the year. According to the report, global trade rose by about 1.5 per cent in the first quarter and was expected to grow by 2 per cent in the second quarter. The report noted that price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value, while trade volumes grew by just 1 per cent. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. Services trade remained the primary driver of growth, rising 9 per cent over the last four quarters. The report showed mixed trends in merchandise trade among major economies in the first quarter of 2025, with developed economies outpacing developing countries. The report attributed this to a 14 per cent surge in imports by the United States and a 6 per cent rise in exports from the European Union. Meanwhile, the United States has seen a widening trade deficit over the last four quarters, contributing to deepened trade imbalances. The report also highlighted the heightened risks of trade fragmentation brought by recent US tariffs, including a 10 per cent baseline tariff and additional duties on steel and aluminum. It warned that a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger trade tensions.
The Star
08-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Global trade grows by 300 bln USD in H1 with uncertain outlook: UN report
GENEVA, July 8 (Xinhua) -- Global trade grew by an estimated 300 billion U.S. dollars in the first half (H1) of 2025, despite showing a slower growth pace, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released Tuesday. In its latest Global Trade Update report, the UNCTAD warned that the global trade outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and signs of weakening global growth in the second half of the year. According to the report, global trade rose by about 1.5 percent in the first quarter and was expected to grow by 2 percent in the second quarter. The report noted that price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value, while trade volumes grew by just 1 percent. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. Services trade remained the primary driver of growth, rising 9 percent over the last four quarters. The report showed mixed trends in merchandise trade among major economies in the first quarter of 2025, with developed economies outpacing developing countries. The report attributed this to a 14 percent surge in imports by the United States and a 6 percent rise in exports from the European Union. Meanwhile, the United States has seen a widening trade deficit over the last four quarters, contributing to deepened trade imbalances. The report also highlighted the heightened risks of trade fragmentation brought by recent U.S. tariffs, including a 10 percent baseline tariff and additional duties on steel and aluminum. It warned that a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger trade tensions.
Indian Express
07-07-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Explained: How India's foreign trade has been invisibilised
International trade is normally associated with the movement of physical goods loaded onto ships, whether directly as bulk unpackaged cargo or in standard-sized containers. But trade isn't just about the exchange of tangible stuff across national borders through sea and by air. It is also about the global flows of services, people, capital, data and ideas. In India's case, the 'invisibles' trade – export and import of services plus cross-border private individual money transfers – is today bigger than the 'visible' merchandise trade account in its external balance of payments. Table 1 shows that India's exports of goods rose almost five-folds, from $66.3 billion to $318.6 billion, between 2003-04 and 2013-14. Thereafter, it flattened out and fell to below $300 billion by 2020-21, before registering a significant jump to $429.2 billion in 2021-22 and $456.1 billion in 2022-03. That was basically on the back of a rebound in global economic activity and goods demand after the all-round collapse during the Covid-19 pandemic. The value of world merchandise exports grew by 26.3% in 2021 and 11.7% in 2022, according to UNCTAD (United Nations Trade and Development) data. But after 2022-23, India's goods exports have dipped again to $441.4 billion in 2023-24 and $441.8 billion in 2024-25. On the other hand, the receipts from 'invisible' transactions – those not involving export of physical goods – have posted steady, if not impressive, increase over the last two decades and more. In gross terms, these went up nearly 4.5 times between 2003-04 and 2013-14 (from $53.5 billion to $233.6 billion) and by another 2.5 times to $576.5 billion in 2024-25. In 2013-14, India's goods exports were about $85 billion more than its receipts from invisibles. In 2024-25, it was the other way round, with invisible receipts roughly $135 billion higher than merchandise exports. While trade deals – including the one now being negotiated with the United States – are mostly focused around seaborne and airborne material cargo, India's foreign trade story in recent times has had more to do with the exports of intangibles. A break-up of India's gross invisible receipts of $576.5 billion in 2024-25 reveals $387.5 billion coming from exports of services, which have soared from a mere $26.9 billion in 2003-04 and $151.8 billion in 2013-14. The other major source of invisible income has been private transfers or remittances ($135.4 billion). This is money sent by Indians working and living abroad, be it temporarily or as permanent residents and even foreign citizens. The dollars, pounds and dirhams remitted by them is essentially receipts from export of human resources from India. The rise in private transfers – from $22.2 billion in 2003-04 and $69.6 billion in 2013-14 – is also huge, although not as steep as services exports. The latter has been powered primarily by the exports of software services – from $12.8 billion in 2003-04 to $69.5 billion in 2013-14 and $180.6 billion in 2024-25. Equally important is the export of miscellaneous 'business, financial and communication services' – from $37.5 billion in 2013-14 to $118 billion in 2024-25. Thus, services exports are not only from Information Technology engineers writing software code, but also from accountants, auditors, financial analysts, research & development professionals, management consultants and computer data storage providers. All these 'invisible' exports have seemingly been relatively immune to the vicissitudes of global business cycles, financial crises, pandemics, geopolitical conflicts or tariffs wars. And they have grown with not much government efforts at sealing bilateral trade agreements or unveiling production-linked incentive schemes. The ongoing India-US trade talks are largely over the Narendra Modi-led government seeking lower tariffs for the country's exports of textiles, leather, auto components, steel and aluminium products and the Donald Trump administration pushing hard to gain market access for American genetically modified soyabean and corn, ethanol, dairy and other farm produce. 'Invisible' services exports and foreign worker visas aren't part of the negotiations, at least for now. Table 2 (above) shows India's merchandise trade deficit virtually doubling from $147.6 billion in 2013-14 to an all-time-high of $287.2 billion in 2024-25. During the last fiscal ended March 2025, the country's goods imports, at $729 billion, far exceeded its exports of $441.8 billion. But the widening goods trade deficits have been considerably offset by surpluses on the net invisible receipts account, surging from $115.3 billion in 2013-14 to $263.8 billion in 2024-25. As a result, the overall current account deficit in India's balance of payments in 2024-25, at $23.4 billion, was actually lower than the $32.3 billion for 2013-14. Compare this to China that recorded a merchandise trade surplus of $768 billion in 2024, from goods exports of $3,409 billion versus imports of $2,641 billion. But unlike India, China had a deficit of $344.1 billion on its net invisibles account. That led to a narrowing down of its overall current account surplus to $423.9 billion in 2024. China, simply put, is the 'factory of the world' due to its dominance in global manufacturing. That's reflected in its running humungous goods trade surpluses year after year. However, when it comes to services, China's imports in 2024, at $613 billion, were way higher than its corresponding exports of $384 billion. India, on its part, can lay claim to being the 'office of the world'. Its services trade surplus alone was $188.8 billion in 2024-25, with exports at $387.5 billion and imports at $198.7 billion. The large net surplus of $263.8 billion from all 'invisible' transactions, including private remittances, is what helped contain its overall current account deficit to a manageable $23.4 billion in 2024-25. Whichever way one looks at, it is 'invisibles' – and not physical movement of goods – that have been the key drivers of India's foreign trade. Harish Damodaran is National Rural Affairs & Agriculture Editor of The Indian Express. A journalist with over 33 years of experience in agri-business and macroeconomic policy reporting and analysis, he has previously worked with the Press Trust of India (1991-94) and The Hindu Business Line (1994-2014). ... Read More
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Undervalued and Profitable: 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks for Buffett-Minded Investors
Nvidia is a surprisingly great value stock. Berkshire Hathaway owns a more than $2 billion stake in another AI leader that you might not immediately think of as an AI business. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › Artificial intelligence (AI) could be the biggest growth opportunity for investors this century. According to a projection by United Nations Trade and Development, the AI market could grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033. Fortunes will be made during this growth sprint, and finding the best AI stocks to invest in now could give your portfolio a huge leg up. But what about those who follow the philosophy of legendary value investors like Warren Buffett? Right now, there are two AI stocks that even Buffett-minded investors will love. In fact, Berkshire Hathaway already has a position worth more than $2 billion in one of the well-known businesses discussed below. Nearly every investor who follows the AI space will be well aware of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Right now, with a market cap of more than $3 trillion, it's one of the three largest companies in the world. It designs and sells a variety of types of computer chips and software, but it's best known for its high-end graphics processing units, or GPUs. These specialized parallel processors can provide precisely the sort of computing power necessary to train and power machine learning and artificial intelligence models. Because it was already dominating the GPU space when the AI trend took off, Nvidia now has a roughly 90% market share in GPUs destined for AI applications -- a lead that has put it at the center of the AI revolution. As you might expect, Nvidia's sales have grown tremendously in recent years thanks to escalating demand for AI software, which has thus escalated demand for the GPUs that allow the technology to function at scale. Over the past three years alone, Nvidia's revenue has jumped by a total of 450%. And if analysts' forecasts are any indication, its sales could continue to grow at double-digit percentage rates annually for the next decade and beyond. Accordingly, Nvidia's price-to-sales multiple is a lofty 22.9. But because the company boasts one of the highest gross margins in the industry, the shares also trade at just 44 times earnings. That is a premium valuation, but given the rapid growth expected, shares trade at just 32 times forward earnings. Again, that's still fairly expensive -- but it's not as expensive as you might think a dominant AI leader with a bright future would be. An oft-repeated Buffett quote is that "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price," and he frequently advises that people should invest in quality businesses for the long term. Based on Nvidia's competitive advantages and high profitability, it's still trading at a fair price. The upfront premium should quickly come to look like a steal for investors who are willing to hang on to the stock for many years. Want to invest in an AI stock that's already in the portfolio of Buffett-run Berkshire Hathaway? There is one, but many investors may not recognize it as an artificial intelligence giant: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). Most people think of Amazon as an e-commerce business. That segment still produces most of its revenue. But in terms of operating profit, the biggest contributor is actually Amazon Web Services, more commonly referred to simply as AWS. It's the largest cloud infrastructure provider in the world. With a market share of about 30%, it controls nearly as much as the next two competitors combined. AWS and its cloud computing peers are some of the biggest buyers of GPUs. Rather than building out expense infrastructure themselves, most AI companies rely on cloud computing services to help them scale up their infrastructure on demand. So if Nvidia is at the center of the AI revolution, so is AWS, and thus Amazon. Berkshire Hathaway opened its stake in Amazon back in 2019. Today, its position is worth just over $2 billion, and it made no changes in the position last quarter, even with shares at record prices. While its e-commerce business is typically in the spotlight, the company's AWS segment makes it a strong, though slightly diluted, AI pick for investors. Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $674,395!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $858,011!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 997% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Undervalued and Profitable: 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks for Buffett-Minded Investors was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
20-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Chinese businesses stick to diversifying away from the U.S. despite trade truce, survey shows
The intense trade war with the U.S. has left lasting scars on Chinese exporters with many looking to diversify away from the U.S., despite the temporary tariff reprieves, a private survey found. Based on a poll of 4,500 exporters across several major economies, trade insurer Allianz Trade found that 95% of Chinese exporters surveyed are planning on, if not already, doubling down on exporting to markets outside the U.S. for their goods. The U.S.-China "decoupling" remains a likely scenario over the medium term, the survey said, as Chinese exporters look to pivot away from the U.S. and American firms accelerate efforts to shift production out of China. An increasing number of firms surveyed are expecting a dent on export turnover this year due to the double-digit U.S. tariffs, the report said. Even after the temporary tariff reduction following Beijing-Washington's deal in Switzerland earlier this month, the U.S. trade-weighted tariff rate on Chinese goods remained at 39%, well above the 13% rate applied before the second Trump administration, according to Allianz Trade estimates. The rapid de-escalation of the tariff spat has led to a large spike in U.S.-bound shipments as exporters front-load orders during the 90-day grace period, pushing up freight rates. Chinese exporters in the coastal city of Ningbo are undeterred by the truce, and sticking with their plans to "go global", said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit. In a recent report on a field visit to the city, which hosts China's second largest port by cargo handled after Shanghai, Xu said Southeast Asia remained the top choice among local businesses seeking to move production overseas. In Southeast Asia, companies show growing interests in setting up production in Indonesia, Xu said. On the other hand, perception was mixed about Vietnam, with concerns over rising costs weighing against an attractive labor force. While the U.S. has hammered out trade deals with China and the U.K, talks with other long trading partners seem to have stalled. Allianz Trade points out a sobering reality that global exports could see a loss of $305 billion this year on the back of the widespread trade conflicts. In comparison, global trade hit a record $33 trillion last year, according to the United Nations Trade and Development.
