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Japan Forward
08-07-2025
- Business
- Japan Forward
Can Ishiba Gain from the LDP's Upper House Losses?
Hudson Institute's Japan Chair challenges conventional international relations thinking by integrating a wide range of perspectives toward beyond-the-horizon policy issues. JAPAN Forward is pleased to amplify the voices of its experts by sharing this view of summer election expectations for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his party with our readers. There's a general consensus that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan's largest political party, and its coalition partner, Komeito, are going to lose seats in the upcoming national election for Japan's Upper House. Despite the anticipation of more losses ahead, the Upper House election may offer a turning point for Prime Minister Ishiba and his government, assuming he can maintain power. There's been public frustration with the LDP over the last few years following a string of scandals. This frustration has contributed to the coalition losing its majority in a national election for Japan's Lower House nine months ago. And just a few weeks ago, the coalition lost 12 of the 127 seats in a local election for Tokyo's Metropolitan Assembly. Despite these recent losses, it's hard to place the blame entirely on Ishiba. And so, his position as the head of the LDP will likely remain, whatever the result of the Upper House. Politics is often thought of in terms of the next election. After the Upper House, it will be three years until the next major election in Japan (not including the election for LDP President in 2027). That's three years for Ishiba to invest in a policy agenda that sets his apart from recent governments. As recent debates in Japan's Diet have shown, tax cuts, entitlement programs, and the Japanese economy are top issues. Issues like United States-Japan trade negotiations and geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and Europe are important, but are less meaningful for voters. Food prices have been particularly prominent in public discourse, lately, given recent spikes in rice prices. Voters listen to a campaign street speech on July 5 in Saitama Prefecture (©Sankei by Naoki Aikawa) Thankfully for Ishiba, rice prices have been moderating. His decision to replace his previous Minister of Agriculture has helped in this regard. While it won't have much effect on this month's election, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also mentioned just recently that he believes food inflation will subside by the end of the year. But whether it's rice prices, hotel room rates, which are up due to high tourism demands, or potential energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, it goes to show Japan is not isolated from the global economy. The Upper House election can be a turning point for Ishiba to start preparing Japan's economy over the next few years for a future when matters like inflation, foreign tourists, workforce challenges, and supply chain shocks are more common in addition to Japan's long-term issues associated with its graying population. Japan's economy is finally going through a long-awaited transition towards growth. For the last three years, real wages in Japan have finally started increasing at a moderate rate. Tourism is also at an all-time high, bringing in billions in new spending. However, these benefits come with their own problems. The number of citizens on fixed incomes and pensions is also rising, which is increasing inflation and its impact on people's daily lives. It's not surprising to hear handouts and temporary tax cuts have made their way into political campaigns ahead of the election. But these are only temporary benefits that add to Japan's long-term fiscal deficit, in exchange for short-term political gain. Meanwhile, they do nothing to solve the problems associated with regional divergence and inflation. Growing frustration with tourism in places like Tokyo and Kyoto may be the additional boost Ishiba needs to reboot his policy of regional revitalization. But he'll need to be more creative to avoid the political shocks that come with inflation. Ishiba has always been seen as going against the tide of the LDP establishment. It was one thing that gained him popular public support in the past. It may be the reason he was the winning choice to lead the LDP last September. Following his own political mistakes since taking over the LDP, however, and possibly anticipating an uphill battle in the upcoming Upper House election, Ishiba has moderated himself over the last year. Instead of looking for big wins in the Upper House election, he has been doing triage to help keep the coalition from losing too many seats. Recently, Ishiba stated his goal for the election is to maintain the majority the coalition currently holds in the Upper House ー a reasonable and even possible goal. Given Japan's Upper House elections are staggered, the coalition will keep the 75 seats it won three years ago. The question is whether it can hold on to the 50 additional seats, out of 65 up for reelection, needed for a majority of 125. It's entirely possible the coalition holds on to its majority in the Upper House, but it will still need to deal with the reality that the coalition has lost significant influence in both houses of the Diet. And that general public support for the coalition has waned. Whatever the result of the Upper House election, this is a time for Ishiba to become less moderate and more politically creative. It's clear that retrenching into the old coalition establishment may be a safe bet for the election, but he also needs a vision for a new policy agenda, given the coalition's political reality. This may even require new coalition-building with new political partners. Whether Ishiba can gain from the LDP's Upper House losses is up to him. Author: Riley Walters Hudson Institute Senior Fellow The Hudson Institute's Hudson Chair contributed this report on July 7, 2025. Learn more about Hudson on its home and Japan Chair pages.
Mint
25-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son proposes US-Japan sovereign wealth fund: Report
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son has proposed setting up a United States-Japan joint sovereign wealth fund, to make big ticket investments in infra and tech, Financial Times reported citing three sources. While the plan has been discussed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, it has not been formally proposed by Mosayoshi Son, the report added. 'The joint fund would likely need about $300 billion in initial capital, with significant leverage, to be effective,' one source told the FT. The report added that the SWF would be jointly owned and run by the US Treasury and Japan's finance ministry. The US Treasury and Japan's finance ministry would also each hold a significant stake in the joint fund. The fund could also be opened to limited partner investors, potentially offering retail investors in Japan and the US a chance to participate. According to a the report, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been looking for revenue streams for the department, and is keen on sources that would not require hiking taxes. Masayoshi Son's proposal this comes at an opportune time and could potentially provide a solution, a source told FT. A Treasury spokesperson and Softbank declined to comment to the FT. SoftBank Group Corp.'s profit soared 124 per cent on valuations of tech startups such as ByteDance and OpenAI. SoftBank reported net income of ¥517.18 billion ($3.5 billion) in its fiscal fourth quarter. That was helped by the Vision Fund, which swung to a profit of ¥26.1 billion thanks to gains in investees such as ByteDance and China's Didi Global Inc. For the year ended March, SoftBank earned a ¥1.15 trillion net income, its first profit in four years after springing back from a loss of about ¥228 billion in the previous year. (With inputs from Bloomberg)
Japan Times
31-03-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Ishiba to visit Iwo Jima to honor soldiers who died in fierce WWII battle
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Friday that he will visit Ioto, widely known as Iwo Jima, on Saturday to attend an event to honor soldiers who died in a fierce battle on the Pacific island 80 years ago. Ishiba will be the first sitting prime minister to visit the island since April 2013, when then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a stopover. "I want to think about what Japan and the United States, which both value freedom, democracy and the rule of law, can do for the peace and prosperity of the world, in order to strengthen the (Japan-U.S.) relationship further," Ishiba told a parliamentary committee meeting. The memorial event will be held jointly by both countries. Participants will include Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and his U.S. counterpart, Pete Hegseth. Nearly 30,000 Japanese and U.S. troops were killed in the battle on Ioto between February and March 1945 in the last phase of the Pacific War, part of World War II. "In spite of a brutal war, the United States-Japan alliance represents the cornerstone of peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific," U.S. President Donald Trump said in a statement released last month to mark the 80th anniversary of the start of the battle on the island.
Japan Times
20-02-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Marking 80th year since Battle of Iwo Jima, Trump touts U.S.-Japan alliance
Washington – U.S. President Donald Trump touted his country's alliance with Japan in a statement released Wednesday to mark the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Iwo Jima in the closing days of World War II. "In spite of a brutal war, the United States-Japan alliance represents the cornerstone of peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific," the statement said. The bloody battle fought on the Pacific island between February and March of 1945 claimed some 21,900 lives on the Japanese side and about 6,800 among American forces. Iwo Jima, part of Tokyo and now known formally as Ioto, is located some 1,250 kilometers south of the capital. While upholding his "America First" policy and transactional diplomacy, Trump has been emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship since his first term, from 2017 to 2021. At his first face-to-face meeting with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Washington on Feb. 7, Trump said that the United States is fully committed to the security of Japan.
