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Los Angeles Times
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Los Angeles Times
Trump's attack on Iran pushed diplomacy with Kim Jong Un further out of reach
SEOUL — Since beginning his second term earlier this year, President Trump has spoken optimistically about restarting denuclearization talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, whom he met for a series of historic summits in 2018 and 2019 that ended without a deal. 'I have a great relationship with Kim Jong Un, and we'll see what happens, but certainly he's a nuclear power,' he told reporters at an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in March. Earlier this month, Trump attempted to send a letter to Kim via North Korean diplomats in New York, only to be rebuffed, according to Seoul-based NK News. And now, following the U.S. military's strike on three nuclear facilities in Iran on Sunday, the chances of Pyongyang returning to the bargaining table have become even slimmer. For North Korea, which has conducted six nuclear tests over the years in the face of severe economic sanctions and international reprobation — and consequently has a far more advanced nuclear program than Iran — many analysts say the lesson from Sunday is clear: A working nuclear deterrent is the only guarantor of security. 'More than anything, the North Korean regime is probably thinking that they did well to dig in their heels to keep developing their nuclear program,' said Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. 'I think this strike means the end of any sort of denuclearization talks or diplomatic solutions that the U.S. had in mind in the past,' he said. 'I don't think it's simply a matter of worsened circumstances; I think the possibility has now gone close to zero.' On Monday, North Korea's foreign ministry condemned the U.S. strike on Iran as a violation of international law as well as 'the territorial integrity and security interests of a sovereign state,' according to North Korean state media. 'The present situation of the Middle East, which is shaking the very basis of international peace and security, is the inevitable product of Israel's reckless bravado as it advances its unilateral interests through ceaseless war moves and territorial expansion, and that of the Western-style free order which has so far tolerated and encouraged Israeli acts,' an unnamed ministry spokesperson said. Trump has threatened to attack North Korea before. Early in Trump's first term, when Pyongyang successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. West Coast., administration officials reportedly considered launching a 'bloody nose' strike — an attack on a nuclear site or military facility that is small enough to prevent escalation into full-blown war but severe enough to make a point. 'Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely,' Trump wrote on social media in August 2017. While it is still uncertain how much damage U.S. stealth bombers inflicted on Iran's nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo — and whether they have kneecapped Iran's nuclear program, as U.S. officials have claimed — experts say the feasibility of a similar attack against North Korea is much smaller. 'North Korea has been plowing through with their nuclear program for some time, so their security posture around their nuclear facilities is far more sophisticated than Iran,' Kim Dong-yup said. 'Their facilities are extremely dispersed and well-disguised, which means it's difficult to cripple their nuclear program, even if you were to successfully destroy the one or two sites that are known.' Kim Dong-yup believes that North Korea's enrichment facilities are much deeper than Iran's and potentially beyond the range of the 'bunker buster' bombs — officially known as the GBU-57 A/B — used Sunday. And unlike Iran, North Korea is believed to already have 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, making large-scale retaliation a very real possibility. A preemptive strike against North Korea would also do irreparable damage to the U.S.-South Korea alliance and would likely also invite responses from China and, more significantly, Russia. A mutual defense treaty signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un last June states that the two countries 'shall immediately provide military and other assistance' to the other if it 'falls into a state of war due to armed invasion from an individual or multiple states.' Yet talk of such an attack in Trump's first term was soon replaced by what he has described as a friendship with Kim Jong Un, built over the 2018-19 summits, the first ever such meetings by a sitting U.S. president. Though the talks fell apart over disagreements on what measures North Korea would take toward disarmament and Trump's reluctance to offer sanctions relief, the summits ended on a surprisingly hopeful note, with the two leaders walking away as pen pals. In recent months, administration officials have said that the president's goal remains the same: completely denuclearizing North Korea. But the attack on Iran has made those old sticking points — such as the U.S. negotiating team's demand that North Korea submit a full list of its nuclear sites — even more onerous, said Lee Byong-chul, a nonproliferation expert who has served under two South Korean administrations. 'Kim Jong Un will only give up his nuclear weapons when, as the English expression goes, hell freezes over,' Lee said. 'And that alone shuts the door on any possible deal.' Still, Lee believes that North Korea may be willing to come back to the negotiating table for a freeze — though not a rollback — of its nuclear program. 'But from Trump's perspective, that's a retreat from the terms he presented at the [2019] Hanoi summit,' he said. 'He would look like a fool to come back to sign a reduced deal.' While some, like Kim Dong-yup, the professor, argue that North Korea has already proven itself capable of withstanding economic sanctions and will not overextend itself to have them removed, others point out that this is still the United States' primary source of leverage — and that if Trump wants a deal, he will need to put it on the table. 'Real sanctions relief is still valuable,' Stephen Costello, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based think tank. While he agrees that immediate denuclearization may be unrealistic, Costello has argued that even halting production of new fissile material, nuclear weapons and long-range missiles are 'well worth ending nonmilitary sanctions,' such as those on energy imports or the export of textiles and seafood. 'Regardless of U.S. actions in the Middle East, the North Koreans would likely gauge any U.S. interest by how serious they are about early, immediate sanctions relief,' he said. The attack on Iran will have other ramifications beyond Trump's dealmaking with Kim Jong Un. Military cooperation between North Korea and Iran, dating back to the 1980s and including arms transfers from North Korea to Iran, will likely accelerate. Lee, the nonproliferation expert, said that the attack on Iran, which was the first real-world use of the United States' bunker-buster bombs, may have been a boon to North Korea. 'It's going to be a tremendous lesson for them,' he said. 'Depending on what the total damage sustained is, North Korea will undoubtedly use that information to better conceal their own nuclear facilities.'
Sharjah 24
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Sharjah 24
North Korea tests new destroyer's weapons system
New warship "Choe Hyon" unveiled Over the weekend, North Korea unveiled a new 5,000-ton destroyer-class vessel named Choe Hyon , which analysts believe could be fitted with short-range tactical nuclear missiles. Kim personally oversaw the first day of a two-day weapons test involving the new ship. Weapons test showcases ship-based missiles State media reported that the destroyer carried out tests involving ship-to-ship tactical guided weapons, automatic guns, smoke and electronic jamming systems. On Monday, additional tests included a supersonic cruise missile, strategic cruise missile, anti-aircraft missile, and a 127 mm ship-based gun. Kim highlights combined strike capabilities Kim praised the integration of powerful ship-based weaponry with advanced strike systems, including cruise and tactical ballistic missiles. He emphasized accelerating the nuclear arming of the navy to enhance deterrence. South Korea and US monitoring North Korea's naval developments Seoul's defense ministry confirmed it is monitoring North Korea's military shipbuilding activities in cooperation with the United States. Possible military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow The naval development news came shortly after Pyongyang confirmed that it had sent troops to support Russia in Ukraine. Moscow also acknowledged the presence of North Korean soldiers in its military operations. Analysts suggest North Korea may have received modern weapons from Russia in exchange. Kim attends launch ceremony with daughter State media released images of Kim and his daughter Ju Ae attending the launch ceremony of the Choe Hyon , fueling speculation about her future role as his successor. Naval expansion part of broader military strategy Kim has previously emphasised the need for a 'radical' enhancement of naval power, including nuclear-powered submarines. While Pyongyang claims to be developing underwater nuclear drones, analysts remain skeptical about the credibility of such capabilities. Regional tensions and strategic response The United States and South Korea have intensified joint military drills and deployed strategic assets to the region in response to North Korea's growing threats. Pyongyang, which calls itself an 'irreversible' nuclear weapons state, views these exercises as provocations. Naval tests signal blue-water ambitions Experts say this week's naval tests indicate North Korea's ambitions to carry out long-range, open-sea operations. 'The new destroyer suggests Pyongyang is moving toward a blue-water navy,' said Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies.
Korea Herald
09-04-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
Amid Trump's tariffs, pressure grows on Seoul to shoulder more defense costs
Defense cost-sharing agreement could rise as key issue between Seoul, Washington in tariff negotiations, expert says South Korea needs to brace for the possibility of shouldering more of its defense costs, with US President Donald Trump implying Seoul's payment for the 28,500 US troops stationed on the peninsula could play a big part in a broader deal between the two countries, experts said Wednesday. Following a phone call with South Korea's acting President Han Duck-soo late Tuesday, Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform that 'payment for the big time Military Protection' that the US provides for South Korea was mentioned in the conversation. "I just had a great call with the Acting President of South Korea. We talked about their tremendous and unsustainable Surplus, Tariffs, Shipbuilding, large-scale purchase of US LNG, their joint venture in an Alaska Pipeline, and payment for the big time Military Protection we provide to South Korea," he wrote on Truth Social. 'Like with South Korea, we are bringing up other subjects that are not covered by Trade and Tariffs, and getting them negotiated also. 'ONE STOP SHOPPING' is a beautiful and efficient process!!!' The phone call came a day before Trump's 25 percent "reciprocal" tariffs on South Korea, imposed on most goods imported from its Asian ally, took effect on Wednesday. With Seoul seeking to negotiate the tariffs, the issue of defense cost-sharing for the upkeep of US Forces Korea is likely to play a key part in potential talks on a broader deal with Washington, an expert said. And it may require some sacrifices from South Korea. 'At this point, it seems the only option for South Korea is to shoulder more costs in various areas (where the US is hinting at the possibility of negotiations) and present it as a package deal,' said Kim Jung, associate professor of comparative politics at the University of North Korean Studies, via email. 'The key is to include the defense cost-sharing deal in a package alongside potential agreements in shipbuilding and liquefied natural gas, which are important leverage for South Korea at the negotiating table. Ultimately, it boils down to lessening Washington's tariff on South Korea and, in the process, Seoul may need to make some sacrifices,' he added. Another expert pointed to the term 'one stop shopping' used by Trump as a major clue that describes what could unfold in the negotiations between Seoul and Washington. 'The term one-stop shopping reflects Trump's willingness to pursue a big deal with South Korea, and this could work to Seoul's advantage,' said Kim Yeoul-soo, senior analyst at Korea Institute for Military Affairs, via phone. 'Handling everything separately with Washington, especially with trade and North Korea issues, would put more pressure on South Korea than negotiating it as a single big package.' The security and international relations expert at the think tank explained that shoring up Seoul's part of the defense cost-sharing deal would play a significant part in eliminating the US' bilateral trade deficit with South Korea. 'There is a high possibility that South Korea will pay more in the defense cost-sharing deal, but we would have to take it if Trump presents the big deal option, as it would be the best-case scenario for Seoul,' Kim said. Around noon, a senior official at the acting president and prime minister's office, who declined to be named, said 'it is difficult to confirm at the moment' when asked whether the government is reviewing the option of paying more in defense costs if it leads to lower tariff rates. The official added that lowering the tariff rate is currently a top priority in the negotiations with the US. A separate Foreign Ministry official said in the afternoon that South Korea has contributed to the allies' joint defense posture and "steady maintenance" of the USFK here through a "consistent increase in defense budget." It pledged to keep its efforts to do so and actively communicate with Washington for continued cooperation. In October, Seoul and Washington struck a defense cost-sharing deal, dubbed the Special Measures Agreement. Under the deal for the 2026-30 period, Seoul is to pay 1.52 trillion won ($1.03 billion) in 2026, up from 1.4 trillion won this year. Trump, who was a presidential candidate at the time, called South Korea a "money machine" and said it would be paying "$10 billion a year" to keep USFK deployed on the Korean Peninsula if he had been in the White House. His remarks prompted concerns here that Seoul would deal with earlier-than-expected renegotiations of the bilateral defense cost-sharing deal with Washington under the second Trump administration.
Korea Herald
09-04-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
After Han-Trump call, pressure grows on Seoul to shoulder more defense costs
Defense cost-sharing agreement could rise as key issue between Seoul, Washington in tariff negotiations, expert says South Korea needs to brace for the possibility of shouldering more of its defense costs, with US President Donald Trump implying Seoul's payment for the 28,500 US troops stationed on the peninsula could play a big part in a broader deal between the two countries, experts said Wednesday. Following a phone call with South Korea's acting President Han Duck-soo late Tuesday, Trump said in a social media post that 'payment for the big time Military Protection' that the US provides for South Korea was mentioned in the conversation. "I just had a great call with the Acting President of South Korea. We talked about their tremendous and unsustainable Surplus, Tariffs, Shipbuilding, large-scale purchase of US LNG, their joint venture in an Alaska Pipeline, and payment for the big time Military Protection we provide to South Korea," he wrote on Truth Social. 'Like with South Korea, we are bringing up other subjects that are not covered by Trade and Tariffs, and getting them negotiated also. 'ONE STOP SHOPPING' is a beautiful and efficient process!' The phone call came a day before the US' 25 percent tariff on South Korea, affecting most goods imported from its Asian ally, took effect on Wednesday. With Seoul seeking to negotiate the tariff, the issue of defense cost-sharing for the upkeep of US Forces Korea is likely to play a key part in potential talks on a broader deal with Washington, an expert said. And it may require some sacrifice from South Korea. 'At this point, it seems the only option for South Korea is to shoulder more costs in various areas (where the US is hinting at the possibility of negotiations) and present it as a package deal,' said Kim Jung, associate professor of comparative politics at the University of North Korean Studies, via e-mail. 'The key is to include the defense cost-sharing deal in a package alongside potential agreements in shipbuilding and liquefied natural gas, which are important leverage for South Korea at the negotiation table. Ultimately, it boils down to lessening Washington's tariff on South Korea and in the process, Seoul may need to make some sacrifices,' he added. Another expert pointed to the term 'one stop shopping' used by Trump as a major clue that describes what could unfold in the negotiations between Seoul and Washington. 'The term one-stop shopping reflects Trump's willingness to pursue a big deal with South Korea, and this could work to Seoul's advantage,' said Kim Yeoul-soo, senior analyst at Korea Institute for Military Affairs, via phone. 'Handling everything separately with Washington, especially with trade and North Korea issues, would put more pressure on South Korea than negotiating it as a single big package.' The security and international relations expert at the think tank explained that shoring up Seoul's part of the defense cost-sharing deal would play a significant part in eliminating the US' bilateral trade deficit with South Korea. 'There is a high possibility that South Korea will pay more in the defense cost-sharing deal, but we would have to take it if Trump presents the big deal option, as it would be the best-case scenario for Seoul,' Kim explained. Around noon, a senior official at the acting president and prime minister's office, who declined to be named, said 'it is difficult to confirm at the moment' when asked whether the government is reviewing the option of paying more in defense costs if it leads to lower tariff rates. The official added that lowering the tariff rates is currently a top priority in the negotiations with the US. In October, Seoul and Washington struck a defense cost-sharing deal, dubbed the Special Measures Agreement. Under the deal for the 2026-30 period, Seoul is to pay 1.52 trillion won ($1.03 billion) in 2026, up from 1.4 trillion won this year. Trump, who was a presidential candidate at the time, said that Seoul would be paying $10 billion a year to keep USFK deployed on the Korean Peninsula if he had been in the White House.
Korea Herald
01-04-2025
- Politics
- Korea Herald
Trump floats outreach to Kim Jong-un, calls N. Korea ‘big nuclear nation'
US President Donald Trump on Monday suggested the possibility of renewing diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sometime, saying the two would 'do something at some point' and acknowledging communication with North Korea, which he described as a 'big nuclear nation.' 'We met, and we have a great relationship. And there is communication. I think it's very important,' Trump told the media when asked whether he plans to reach out to Kim, as he did with the leaders of Russia, China and Iran. 'It's a big nuclear nation, and he's a very smart guy. I got to know him very well.' Trump also hinted at eventually reviving his leader-level diplomacy, which was central to his North Korea policy during his first term. 'But I have a very good relationship with him. We'll probably do something at some point," Trump said from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. Trump's description of North Korea as a 'big nuclear nation' followed his earlier remarks labeling Kim Jong-un a 'nuclear power' on two occasions since his inauguration on Jan. 20 — first during his Inauguration Day press conference, and again ahead of his bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on March 13. The last time Trump referred to North Korea as a nuclear power, he notably drew a parallel with de facto nuclear weapons states like India and Pakistan. Trump said in mid-March, 'Kim Jong-un has a lot of nuclear weapons, by the way — a lot — and others do also. You have India. You have Pakistan. You have others that have them, and we'd get them involved' in nuclear reduction talks, along with China and Russia, which are recognized nuclear weapons states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Speaking to the media in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump also recalled how his initially sour relationship with Kim transformed into a positive one after a rocky start. "I do — I have a very good relationship with Kim Jong-un. Now, you people hate to hear that, but it's very important. I got along with him fantastically," Trump said. "As you know, it started off very rough — very nasty. 'Little Rocket Man,' the whole thing was a nasty deal. And then one day, we got a call that they'd like to meet.' Trump recounted his last meeting with Kim, a brief one in June 2019 at the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two Koreas in the truce village of Panmunjom. 'I remember, I put my foot across the line — and then I walked across the line. I don't know if the Secret Service was thrilled with that. They actually weren't. They were not too thrilled," according to him. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said there is a good likelihood informal contact would be established with North Korea's UN mission in New York via phone or email. For instance, Richard Grenell — Trump's special presidential envoy for North Korea missions — or Deputy National Security Adviser Alex Wong, who was directly engaged in talks with North Korea during Trump's first term, could serve as a liaison. 'President Trump's message to North Korea at this particular moment appears to be to encourage Pyongyang to more actively engage in dialogue," Yang said. However, Yang added that Trump's action may be aimed at managing North Korea not too far from tilting toward Russia or China, especially amidst speculations on Kim Jong-un potentially attending Russia's May Victory Day parade and potential North Korea-China alignment to contain the US. "In light of Trump's pressing priorities such as the escalating tariff war and negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, we cannot rule out the possibility that Trump's gesture was intended to prevent North Korea from leaning too closely toward Russia or China." The Unification Ministry on Tuesday said the South Korean government 'would of course welcome if dialogue between North Korea and the US proceeds in a direction that contributes to North Korea's denuclearization.' 'North Korea's complete denuclearization is the unified goal of South Korea, the US, and the international community,' a senior Unification Ministry said on condition of anonymity in response to Trump's remarks.
