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NBC News
18 hours ago
- Climate
- NBC News
Minimal U.S. effects from tsunami don't mean the forecast was inaccurate
The magnitude-8.8 earthquake off the coast of Russia's Kamchatka peninsula sent a wave of water racing at the speed of a jetliner toward Hawaii, California and Washington state, spurring warnings and alarm overnight on Wednesday. But when the tsunami waves arrived, they didn't cause devastation or deaths in the U.S. and the inundation might not have appeared threatening in some locations where warnings were issued. That doesn't mean the tsunami was a "bust," that it was poorly forecast or that it didn't pose a risk, earthquake and tsunami researchers said. 'You start to hear tsunami warning and everyone immediately thinks of the last Hollywood movie they saw and then it comes in at 3 feet and people are like, 'What's that?'' said Harold Tobin, the director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and a professor at the University of Washington. 'We should count it as a win that a tsunami occurred, we got a warning and it wasn't the worst-case scenario.' Here's what to know. How strong was the Kamchatka earthquake? And why did it change so much? The initial reports of the Kamchatka earthquake from the United States Geological Survey pegged it as a 8.0-magnitude. Later, it was upgraded to an 8.8 magnitude quake. 'That is not uncommon for very, very large earthquakes in those initial minutes,' Tobin said. 'Our standard algorithms for determining the size of an earthquake quickly saturate. It's like turning up an amp and getting a lot of distortion." One of the first signs the earthquake was stronger than the initial seismic reports was an initial measurement from a buoy about 275 miles southeast of the Kamchatka peninsula. The buoy, which is part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) system, is connected to a seafloor pressure sensor about 4 miles below the surface. The sensor registered a 90-centimeter wave, which is eye-popping to tsunami researchers. 'That's the second-largest recording we ever saw in the tsunami world,' said Vasily Titov, a senior tsunami modeler at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, adding that it indicated there was 'a catastrophic tsunami propagating in the ocean.' Titov said the only higher reading was from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, which caused nearly 16,000 deaths in Japan. Seismic models later confirmed that Wednesday's earthquake was a magnitude-8.8, which means it released nearly 16 times as much energy as a magnitude-8.0 earthquake, according to a USGS calculation tool. Tōhoku was much bigger. Tobin estimated that earthquake released 2-3 times as much energy as was observed in Kamchatka. Titov said the tsunami in Japan was also about three times larger. Additionally, Tobin said the Tōhoku earthquake 'produced an anomalously large seafloor displacement,' lurching and moving more water than expected, even for an earthquake of its magnitude. At Kamchatka, 'it's likely that there was less seafloor displacement than could have happened in a worst case or more dire scenario for a magnitude 8.8,' Tobin said, though more research will be needed to confirm that theory. How did researchers make a forecast? How good was the forecast? In two hours' time, researchers produced a tsunami forecast for 'pretty much the whole Pacific and for warning points along the U.S. coastlines,' Titov said, with predictions of water levels at coastal tide gauges and also for flood inundation. The tsunami took about eight hours to reach Hawaii and 12 hours to reach the California coast. Titov, who helped build the models used by forecasters who issue warnings from the National Tsunami Warning Centers in Hawaii and Alaska, said the models rely on seismic data and the network of nearly 80 DART buoys in place along the Pacific Rim, which sense pressure changes. The U.S. owns and operates about half of the DART buoys. Titov said the models indicated that north shore areas of Hawaii would receive tsunami waves of about two meters or less. 'Hilo was predicted at about still two meters [6.5 feet] and it materialized at about 150 centimeters,' or 1.5 meters [5 feet], Titov said. 'It's exactly how we want it — a little bit on the conservative side.' The same trend played out in parts of California, Titov said. It will take some time to assess how well the models predicted inundation because reports are still coming in about the extent of flooding. 'We know that the flooding occurred at Hawaii. We don't know exactly the extent, but from the reports that I saw on TV, it looks like exactly what we predicted,' Titov said. Why were people in Hawaii evacuated for a five-foot wave? Yong Wei, a tsunami modeler and senior research scientist at the University of Washington and the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, said a 1.5 meter [5 foot] tsunami wave can be very dangerous, particularly in shallow waters off Hawaii. Tsunami waves contain far more energy than wind waves, which are far shorter in wavelength, period (time between waves) and slower in speed. Wei said tsunami waves of the size that struck Hawaii can surge inland 'tens of meters,' produce dangerous currents and cause damage to boats and other moveable objects. 'People die. If they stay there and they don't get any warning, two meters can definitely kill people,' Wei said. 'If you're on the beach, strong currents can definitely pull you out into the ocean and people will get drowned.' Tobin said the initial warnings were conservative, but appropriate, in his view. 'I don't want people to think, oh, we had a warning and nothing much happened and poo poo it — 'I can ignore it,'' Tobin said. 'Warnings by nature have to err a bit on the side of caution.' Was this a historic event? No. The Kamchatka peninsula has a long history of earthquakes. 'This was an area that was ready for another earthquake and there had been a lot of earthquakes in that region over the last few weeks,' said Breanyn MacInnes, a professor in the Department of Geological Sciences at Central Washington University, which indicates increased risk. In 1952, before scientists had a strong understanding of plate tectonics, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake struck offshore of the Kamchatka peninsula in much the same region, sending a tsunami into the town of Severo-Kurilsk. 'People in Russia were not really prepared for it. It was very big earthquake, a big tsunami and they were caught off guard,' MacInnes said. MacInnes said the tsunami produced was between 30 and 60 feet in height in southern parts of the peninsula. 'Thousands of people were killed and basically the town was destroyed,' said Joanne Bourgeois, an emeritus professor of sedimentology at the University of Washington, who has been studying the region's earthquake history for about three decades. How would the tsunami warning system perform if the earthquake struck closer to home? The Kamchatka tsunami is a megathrust earthquake produced along large subduction zone fault, when one tectonic plate is forced beneath another. The U.S. west coast features a similar fault, called the Cascadia subduction zone, which runs offshore along the U.S. West Coast from Northern California to northern Vancouver Island. 'This is kind of a mirror image across the Pacific,' Tobin said. 'An 8.8 at a relatively shallow depth in Cascadia is definitely in the realm of scenarios. We could have a similar event here.' In fact, Cascadia has the potential to produce much larger quakes, Tobin said. Modeling suggests Cascadia could produce tsunami waves as tall as 100 feet. Subduction zone earthquakes typically produce tsunamis that reach shore in about 30 minutes to an hour, Titov said, which would strain forecasters' capabilities to predict tsunami effects precisely along the U.S. west coast before inundation happened. Titov said more seafloor sensors, more computer processing and innovation with artificial intelligence algorithms are needed to speed forecasting. Tobin said the successful tsunami warning on Tuesday should spur investment in seafloor sensors and seismic monitoring stations offshore along the subduction zone. 'This shows the value and importance of NOAA and the USGS [U.S. Geological Survey] in these times where some of these government agencies have come into question,' Tobin said. 'We wouldn't have had a tsunami warning if it weren't for NOAA and the next one could be a closer event. They showed their value.'
Asahi Shimbun
20 hours ago
- Science
- Asahi Shimbun
Competitive scientist finds joy in creative life in Nagano
Fumio Ouchi, right, shows off a violin with his instructor, Shinichi Izutsu, on April 10 in Matsumoto, Nagano Prefecture. (Yuichi Koyama) After long years of fighting tooth and nail for academic funding, professor Fumio Ouchi has found a new passion—handcrafting beautiful violins. Ouchi, 76, a specially appointed professor at Tohoku University and a professor emeritus at the University of Washington, spent nearly half a century in the United States. He specializes in materials science—researching glass, metal, ceramics, semiconductors and other substances for manufacturing purposes. Ouchi, like other academics in this field, always had to juggle work on multiple projects simultaneously, just to secure enough research funding from outside sources to hire staff. Hoping to obtain funding from the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA for research programs related to national security, he and his wife, now 75, obtained U.S. citizenship more than 20 years ago. The academic budget required was 60 million yen ($410,000) to 70 million yen per year. Failing to reach that sum would mean he couldn't proceed smoothly with his next research project. Ouchi had seen colleagues over the years lose their jobs after losing out in the dog-eat-dog world of academia. Although pursuing research step by step through trial and error was fulfilling, Ouchi was always thinking about how to raise funds, even when not at work. 'I had to keep running all the time,' said Ouchi. 'I did not have time to think about whether it was really good for me.' LONELY BRAINSTORMING The turning point came in 2020. Stricken by the global COVID-19 pandemic, his campus in Seattle was temporarily closed. Classes were held online in video conferences. Instead of commuting to work, Ouchi had more time alone to think. Ouchi, who had already turned 70, felt that he 'should do something new, instead of simply competing stiffly with other academics.' Born in Tokyo's Setagaya Ward, Ouchi spent his childhood hunting for and collecting electronic parts from junk left in a vacant lot by the U.S. occupation forces. While still in elementary school, he built a radio with the junk parts by copying a wiring diagram he found in a magazine. The word 'USA' on the junk inspired the young boy to dream of one day working in manufacturing in North America. Ouchi first went to the United States in 1975. He started off in Florida, where he spent some time as a student. He then built his career at a company, a university lab and elsewhere in search of challenging new environments. He lived in unfamiliar places in Wilmington, Delaware, and suburban Seattle. VIOLIN FOR GRANDDAUGHTER From all these busy years, one particular memory stands out among the rest. Ten years ago, his 3-year-old granddaughter started playing the violin in the United States. Watching the child holding a small violin, Ouchi imagined, only vaguely, that she might one day play an instrument he would craft just for her. 'How wonderful it would be if she grew up and performed with the violin I made for her,' Ouchi said, recalling his feelings. Ouchi himself was unsure why that thought came to mind. However, he had always been surrounded by music. His mother is a singer, his wife teaches piano and his daughter is a pianist. One thing was certain: He wanted to 'create something outside of academia.' In the summer of 2022, Ouchi and his wife relocated to Matsumoto in Nagano Prefecture. The city is rich in culture, particularly in music and art, and is known for its thriving production of wooden-stringed instruments. He began to dream of 'crafting a violin someday' and reached a decision. TRY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AGE 90 Ouchi began attending a violin-making workshop on the outskirts of Matsumoto in February the following year. He currently receives instructions once every two weeks from Shinichi Izutsu, 88, who makes instruments for Ryu Goto and other renowned violinists. Silently carving curved designs out of wood, Ouchi carefully touches the surface of Izutsu's violins, trying to understand the difference between the master craftsman's instruments and his own. 'An artisan and a scientist resort to different processes to produce a violin,' Ouchi said, grinning. 'This is intriguing.' Ouchi completed his first violin last spring. He is planning to present it to his granddaughter during a trip to North America in the fall. 'Tackling new projects is fun, just like in my research life,' Ouchi said. 'I would like to keep trying and improving my techniques until I'm about 90.' Ouchi is at present working on his second violin, which he started in April. His current goal is faithfully reproducing a Stradivarius violin from a blueprint he found in the library. Ouchi intends to give the Stradivarius replica to his wife, whom he has been with for many decades, once it is finished.
Axios
a day ago
- Automotive
- Axios
Seattle's I-5 closures are just beginning
If you think this summer's construction closures on Interstate 5 through Seattle are bad, just wait until next year (and the year after that). The big picture: The current work — which involves lane reductions and weekend closures through Aug. 18 — is just a fraction of what Seattle drivers will experience over the next two years as the freeway undergoes a major overhaul. Zoom in: Workers are currently repairing part of the deck on the Ship Canal Bridge, the part of I-5 that stretches from downtown Seattle to Northeast 45th Street near the University of Washington. Crews have narrowed the northbound stretch of the freeway to two lanes between State Route 520 and 45th Street, which will also allow workers to partially repair expansion joints and replace drain inlets. The four-week job will conclude with a weekend closure of northbound I-5 from Aug. 15 to Aug. 18 — something Seattle drivers also experienced when the work began this month. Yes, but: This type of work on I-5 will also go on for several months next year, except for during a break for the FIFA World Cup in Seattle in June and July. There also will be monthslong construction in 2027, as workers tackle other parts of the ailing bridge. The intrigue: The work this year was originally supposed to last longer. But budget pressures caused state officials to temporarily cancel the construction, then reschedule it in a scaled-back form. Transportation officials say they hope commuters use this year's shorter construction period to test different routes to work, or experiment with different types of transit — anything that could help them prepare for the bigger closures in 2026 and 2027. What they're saying: Although some drivers get frustrated with prolonged lane closures during busy summer travel months, crews often need long stretches of dry weather to do their work, WSDOT spokesperson RB McKeon told Axios. Long-term lane closures that affect weekday commutes are also unavoidable when dealing with this scale of repair, she said. "If we only worked at night and weekends, it would take us a decade to do what we're going to do in three seasons," McKeon said. The fine print: To help alleviate traffic, the I-5 express lanes will be open 24/7 in the direction affected by each closure. That means those lanes won't be available at the usual times to commuters traveling in the opposite direction.
CNN
a day ago
- Science
- CNN
First Tsunami waves hit Hawaii after major quake in Russia
Water levels were recorded above four feet on the north shore of Hawaii's Oahu Island. University of Washington senior research scientist Yong Wei joins MJ Lee on 'Early Start' to discuss.
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GMA Network
2 days ago
- Health
- GMA Network
AI-designed antivenom could offer new hope for snakebite victims
Scientists in Denmark are using artificial intelligence to design antivenoms to help snakebite victims. The researchers hope the antitoxins will one day be cheaper and easier to produce than traditional products—and may work faster. Timothy Patrick Jenkins from the Technical University of Denmark leads the AI antivenom research team alongside Nobel laureate David Baker from the University of Washington. They've been using AI to design proteins that can effectively neutralize snake venom toxins that can kill and maim. 'Snake venoms are these incredibly complex cocktails of different molecules, so-called proteins. And we need to know what the most medically relevant toxins are. So, we use different techniques to identify these,'' Jenkins said. ''We then have a very close look at the structure of them, throw them into advanced AI models, and then actually use these to custom make basically glue to these toxins. So, we stick a protein to a toxin that might be attacking our nervous system, destroying our cells, and causing our blood to clot. And what we do is bind something to it, stick something to it, so it can't do this anymore.' The proteins they are designing target so-called "three-finger toxins"—potent neurotoxins that disrupt nerve signals, causing paralysis or death if untreated. Early tests of the proteins in mice have led to an 80-100% survival rate. The World Health Organization estimates there are around 5 million snakebites annually, causing between 81,000 and 138,000 deaths. Most of these occur in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where agricultural workers and children are the most affected. Jenkins says there is a scarcity of antivenoms and poor management of snake bites in large parts of the world. And while not yet a complete replacement for current antivenoms, the researchers hope their work could one day supplement existing remedies and lead to more accessible, effective, and affordable snakebite therapies. 'My personal hope is that within five years, we've completed our first clinical trials where we can actually say that there is a product ready to be delivered to patients,'' Jenkins said. — Reuters
